Nats Go All in for Eaton
For those of you who work the third shift, aren’t on the Twitters, or had a date last night (hey, it could happen), Washington traded Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Dane Dunning for Chicago White Sox outfielder Adam Eaton.
This is hard for us as prospect followers because we become (or have become) enamored with the exploits of “our guys” and envision their future with the big club, which we saw briefly last summer with Giolito and Lopez, and were looking forward to with Dunning in 2-3 years. I’ll be the first to admit that my first thought was: “Just Adam Eaton? No PTBNL?”
That’s because I’ve become used to the consolation prize that Mike Rizzo seems to find with his trades: Joe Ross… Blake Treinen… Tanner Roark, etc.
Nope. Three maybes, two of them pretty strong, for one proven, in-his-prime major leaguer.
As the pic suggests, Rizzo appears to be going all-in for this season; at least that’s the knee-jerk narrative. But if you look more closely, and think about it a little more deeply, he’s got an OF option secured for the next five seasons at a reasonable price. This is critical because at least one of the two guys who’ll play next to him next summer won’t be here in 2019.
That’s not being Chicken Little – Jayson Werth’s skills are in decline, Bryce Harper may leave. If you’re a Pollyanna, then you look at this trade as freeing up the Cayman Island that it’ll take—and if he reverts to 2015 form, deserves—to keep Harper in DC.
If you’re bitter, or cynical, then you wonder if the Nats have soured on at least one of these three prospects and are dealing them because they’ve reached their peak and/or will get hurt. I certainly hope not because if a pattern like this emerges it will be harder for Rizzo to make trades in the future.
It’s worth paraphrasing what one scout tweeted yesterday: Prospects have three purposes (1) play for the parent club (2) use to trade for other players (3) fill out the rosters in the minors. Number one is obviously top of mind for us, but this is yet another reminder that number two may actually be number one in the minds of the Washington front office.
Last call for the Top 10 Nats Bats while we brace for the Rule 5 Draft.
If I would have been in a coma the past six months and woke up today finding out that during that same time the Nats traded away Avila, Giolito, Lopez, Dunning, Shrock, Rivero and Hearn, the first words out of my mouth what have been “Amazing, we got Mike Trout and Andrew Miller for the next 4 years!” Instead, we got 2 months of Melancon, one month of Recypeski (spelling?), one year of Norris and 5 years of Eaton. I’m sorry, I love Rizzo, but I really don’t understand his moves lately. I look at Dombrowski, he doesn’t win all his trades, but when he goes all in and pays big time, he knows what he is doing because he gets long term value (Miguel Cabrera, Kimbrel, Sale). Maybe there is an endgame here that i don’t see, but as of now, this team is not that much better than last year. And we still have that white elephant in the room ( a declining Zimm) that Rizzo doesn’t seem to want to address.
I’ll repeat myself here, yes, this is a big overpay. But, and a big But, it was an overpay of pitching prospects.
We still have a good system, pitching-wise. Lots of pressure on Fedde and A.J. Cole now.
We still have all of our hitters. The system is more balanced now, for better or worse.
The tough aspect of this trade is that the Nats likely could’ve gotten Eaton last July for Giolito straight up. Now, Giolito’s star has dimmed a bit, and the Nats surrendered two more of their power arms to get Eaton, and suddenly the Nats went from the franchise with one of the deepest stables of starting pitching talent (at least starting RHP) to middle of the pack at best. As we know from Strasburg, Giolito, Fedde, Jordan Zimmerman, pitchers get hurt and miss large chunks of a season, the Nats were very well equipped to deal with that.
Now, not so much.
Amazing how quickly Giolito went from untouchable to one of three pieces to get Adam Freaking Eaton.
Outside of Cole, Fedde, and Voth, what’s there as far as far as starting pitching inventory that could one day contribute? Baez (if he can remain a starter)? Luzardo?
Nothing as immediate as those three. Maybe John Simms or Tyler Mapes, but neither is lefthanded or throws especially hard, which is a hurdle that nobody’s seemed to clear with Rizzo at the helm.
Thanks for the response. I’m a first time poster, but longtime reader.
Maybe Watson can eventually clear that left handed hurdle.
The good news is the Rule 5 was uneventful, just the way you like it if you’re the Nats.
The Nats did lose the immortal Philip Walby to the Jays in the AAA portion of Rule 5. If you just said “who?” you’re not alone. Phil, we hardly knew ye.
Former Tampa Yankee farmhand
Signed by nats joining 5-6 other former Yankee farm hands drafted off other org. Scrolls .
Eaton impressed me in his initial career in Arizona then he became a fan of the numbers generation .
He and Turner could be real fun: getem on , getem over and getem in.
Future question : how GOOD will
Robles be .
Voth and Cole on Maddux attention next March . Fedde Preperation too.
Mapes, Long , Blackmar , Martin ,
Ross , Whiting will eat many AAÀ/AA IPs
On the plus side, you guys have been spared references/nicknames that refer to either Australia or a wallaby.
It was a big price in prospect terms, but I understand the deal. Eaton is signed for five years, and at a price that gives the Nats flexibility to do other things (such as pursue a closer . . . but please don’t trade Robles!). The “five years” part helps extend the window beyond all the contracts that will be ending over the next couple of years. I get all that.
I wish the trio leaving well. As I’ve argued on another site, these guys don’t have to fail in order for the trade to look good. The Nats did what they felt they had to do, knowing full well that these guys could turn out to be very good. All the stuff about how the front office had “soured” on Giolito is unnecessary. Giolito had very strong minor-league numbers in 2016, which mean more than his MLB SSS.
The “failure” I haven’t seen discussed that underlies this trade is much more with Goodwin/Taylor/Hood. The guys to fill the OF were supposed to come in-house. You could count Souza in that mix, but he wasn’t drafted as an OF and was written off several times, so he really wasn’t one of the “chosen ones” the organization was counting on to backfill the OF. The big club bought some time with the Span acquisition, but Goodwin/Taylor/Hood never turned into MLB starters. Goodwin may still get a bench shot with the big club, but Taylor needs to start over somewhere else.
Anyway, I’m on board with the Eaton deal. It’s sort of like losing members of the family when closely watched guys like Giolito and Lopez depart, though. We’ve followed their every start for years. We didn’t have time to get attached to Dunning, but he made a strong first impression. Best wishes, guys.
Well said KW!
Souza landed us Trea Turner. Job well done in terms of filling our OF or SS “in house”
Oh, I don’t disagree there. The trade for Turner and Ross has been a huge one for the future of this franchise. But Goodwin/Taylor/Hood were supposed to stay and play for this franchise. I felt like they “chose” to keep Taylor over Souza because he was more of a CF than Taylor was. (Although Taylor never would have netted the same trade bounty; Souza had destroyed the IL that year.) At the same time, though, they felt like they could trade Souza because they thought Taylor could be a starter. They were wrong, and they just paid for that miscalculation with Giolito, Lopez, and Dunning.
Actually, I think that the Eaton trade does partially address the elephant (Zimmerman) in the room. If 2016 Zim is who he is now rather than simply a crappy season, then having Turner back in the infield gives the Nationals more maneuvering room to shift Murphy to first base and move Zim to the bench.
I suspect this only works if they manage to re-up Mr. Drew who probably could play either shortstop or second base as a starter AND wields a productive left-handed bat.