Baseball America Ranks The Top 10 Nats Prospects
Yesterday, Baseball America released its postseason Top 10, and as already discussed in the comments, it’s full of specious goodness (last year’s ranking):
- Victor Robles, OF (3)
- Erick Fedde, RHP (4)
- Juan Soto, OF (’16-’17 IFA)
- Wilmer Difo, IF (6)
- Andrew Stevenson, OF (8)
- Koda Glover, RHP (30)
- Luis Garcia, SS(’16-’17 IFA)
- Carter Kieboom, SS(’16 Draft Pick)
- Pedro Severino, C (11)
- Austin Voth, RHP (9)
As you can see, it’s not too hard to figure out the process: Nos. 1, 2, and 5 were traded… so bump up the next three guys two slots… then slide in two of the most expensive IFAs… add the top ’16 Draft pick. Now it’s just a matter of figuring out the last three spots.
Let’s choose from the guys who were on the 25-man roster in August!
One of them has his service time exhausted? No problem, we’ll haughtily proclaim that only at-bats matter in determining prospect status; who cares if most folks use rookie eligibility? We’re the phone company Baseball America, we don’t care.
OK, end rant.
Time’s running short this morning, so tomorrow I’ll update this space with any tidbits from the chat this afternoon. In the meantime, keep the conversation going… it’s going to be cold (for DC, at least) later this week, so we’ll need the hot stove.
UPDATE:
There were a couple of tidbits from the chat worth mentioning, which answer some questions that folks had. The first relates to the two shortstops:
Ryan (Abingdon, MD): Why is Luis Garcia ranked ahead of Carter Kieboom? I get that they’re ranked together, but is Garcia’s upside really that much greater than Kieboom’s to get him placed ahead even though I assume he’ll have a considerably later ETA.
Teddy Cahill: It was difficult to order Garcia and Kieboom. They have the same BA Grade and the difference between them is slim. I think Garcia’s ceiling is higher than Kieboom’s, partially because he has a chance to be better defensively. I hesitate to call Kieboom the safer of the pair because no teenager in the complex league is “safe”,[sic] but he might have the higher floor (though part of the attraction of Garcia is how advanced he is for a 16-year-old). I don’t think Kieboom’s ETA is much ahead of Garcia’s. He’s two years older and has made his pro debut already, but it’s not like he’s in line to play in the big leagues in 2018. It’s going to take them both some time to get to Washington, and it will be interesting to watch them develop.
The second is the Nats’ reigning, two-time Player of the Year, Jose “Orange” Marmolejos:
theaman (College Park, Md.): Jose Marmolejos seemed to come out of nowhere to win organizational player of the year and seemed like a surprise addition to the 40-man roster. What do the Nats have there? Enough pop to play 1B in the majors?
Teddy Cahill: Jose Marmolejos has been a fascinating player to evaluate for the ranking, especially after the Nationals added him to the 40-man roster last month. He has really performed the last two years, winning org player of the year twice. But he doesn’t really profile as a first baseman because he doesn’t have that kind of power. But as a lefthanded hitter that a good, disciplined approach at the plate, I think he can find a way to help a team off the bench or maybe as a platoon option. The bottom line is if he keeps hitting as he advances in the minor leagues, they’ll find a way to use him.
Finally, Cahill mentioned back problems for Anderson Franco to explain his limited playing time last summer. This, as we all know, is par for the course with the Nationals when it comes to injuries (say little, reveal less). Not necessarily the wrong thing to do, especially given the spate of trades lately, but still annoying.
BA also lists Nats signing Tim Collins LHP late of KC and the return of Broadway to Burg. Michael Broadway .
Interesting that Garcia is on this list and Acuna was on, I believe, Sickels’ list. Initially, I believe, the pundits had Garcia ranked higher, but the Nats selected Acuna ahead of him and paid more money to Acuna as well.
This is a bit of a weird list. However, if you (properly) remove Difo and Garcia and slide everyone else up, I don’t think it’s too out of line with reality. BA has clearly put more stock in Stevenson’s SSS in AZ than Sickels did. Judging by how highly my compadres here at Nats Prospects ranked him on the Bats list, perhaps many of you would agree more than I do. I was encouraged by what Stevenson did in AZ, but he needs to sustain that level of production to be convincing. Drew Ward seems a curious omission, but he’s hard to quantify. He didn’t excel this year, but he did hold his own at an age generally below his level.
It’s hard to rank Glover, and I’ll struggle with where to put him when we do the Arms list. He may have the best arm in the system and shot through the ranks like a cannon. But as a reliever, does he outrank a potentially effective starter like Fedde or even Voth?
And who knows about Garcia or Antuna? This being BA, it’s actually sorta surprising that they didn’t rank them both . . .
Seeing as how over-valued relievers have suddenly become, Glover is entirely deserving of that 6 spot, if not even higher.
I didn’t mean to make it seem like Glover might need to be lower. He’s the surest thing on the list, if he can come back from his hip injury.
Luke, your comment (and BA’s response) on the original article made me laugh.
“We don’t use service time … even though every other system determining rookie eligibility/prospect status does.”
MLB.com has Neuse, Banks and Cole on its Nats Top 10 list, which seems every bit as daffy as having Difo and a guy who hasn’t yet played a professional inning. Personally, I’d have gotten Tyler Watson in there somewhere since he has already shown results and has tremendous upside in a system bereft of quality LH pitching.
Here here!
Yeah, MLB.com looks REALLY high on the new draftees, particularly the college kids. Neuse at #4 but Soto only at #12? Really? And Luzardo at #13 yet to throw a pitch?
Isn’t the MLB Pipeline list old? I thought it was the midseason list with the 3 traded guys pulled out of the list. Surely Soto is higher than 12 after his big year.
Here is the MLB.com list:
http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=was
I do wonder what guys like Marmolejos, Sagdal, Davidson, Mapes, and Simms think when they look at these lists. They’ve posted better stats than most of the “prospects,” often at higher levels. To me, it’s guys like this who really show the depth of the system.
Very interesting Davidson named best patient eye in system. Does that
Earn him harrisburg with a good camp ?
Banks should hurry through Harrisburg with a few others
People are stuck in the past when it comes to 1B.
1B are no longer huge, roided up power-machines, who have to slug .300 to profile there.
This was the 2016 MLB 1B average: .255/.334/.447
Or even worse, this was the Nats 1B contribution in 2016: .223/.282/.357
In 2016, Marmolejos hit: .289/.370/.475
In 2015, Marmolejos hit: .310/.363/.485
He looks a hell of a lot like former elite prospects, Eric Hosmer and Yonder Alonso, 1B lacking power, but with good plate discipline and an ability to hit for average. Hosmer’s had more success than Alonso, but both have proven to be useful players.
Marmolejos has a real shot at being an immediately useful player. The Nats thinnest position is 1B, and if Zimm starts 2017 like he ended 2016, there will be a real opportunity for Marmolejos to contribute, and even a repeat of his tame 2016 AA performance of .299/.333/.417 would still be a huge improvement on our miserable 1B play last season.
On paper, yes. In person, Hosmer was head and shoulders above “the Orange” while he was with Wilmington. Otherwise, I’d agree that we need to drop the stereotype of 1B being big, immobile sluggers and get into the 21st century
Especially if Kernian puts his stuff togethec !
I don’t know where Kerian will be putting his stuff together next season, but I’ll be shocked if it’s in the Nats’ organization. Guys who hit .144 in their second try at Auburn generally don’t continue playing pro baseball.