NationalsProspects.com

The NationalsProspects.com Top 10 Pitchers

 


For the fourth straight, Lucas Giolito snagged the top spot in this (quite) unscientific poll for the fourth straight year and was the unanimous choice for the second. With that suspense ruined….

  1. Lucas Giolito
  2. Reynaldo Lopez
  3. Erick Fedde
  4. Austin Voth
  5. A.J. Cole
  6. Austen Williams
  7. Koda Glover
  8. John Simms
  9. Andrew Lee
  10. Abel De Los Santos

Others receiving votes: Taylor Hearn, Phillips Valdez, Nick Lee, Mariano Rivera, Tyler Mapes, Dakota Bacus, Jefry Rodriguez, Tyler Watson, Maximo Valerio, Robbie Dickey, Joan Baez, Sammy Solis, Rafael Martin

Now, for the thoughts, as threat…er, promised:

• If the only questions regarding Giolito are his health and service time, then expect a Strasburg-esque recall from the minors in June. It’s not like Rizzo could have been just playing to the crowd with the recent “invite to spring training” comments.

• Despite a 2015 that paled in comparison to 2014, Reynaldo Lopez’s stock did not drop. Then again, it’s not like the Nats have an abundance of younger-than-the-level pitchers with his potential, either.

• Erick Fedde moved up, with perhaps a lot of folks hoping for his 2015 to equal Giolito’s 2013, which would mean a breakout 2016.

• Austin Voth held steady at #4 despite a strong showing (2.92/3.07/1.11) for a weak Harrisburg team and winning the 2015 Minor League Pitcher of the Year Award.

• A.J. Cole, who turns 24 next month, might be suffering from prospect fatigue, not to mention less-than-stellar results when he was called up.

• Austen Williams was the last of the on-every-ballot pitchers… as we often lament, after the first few, it’s a free-for-all (freefall?)

Sadly, we’re now at the point of the offsesason where it’s waiting for trades and transactions, both of which have been sparse [insert Billy Beane lost his cellphone joke here]. As per usual, feel free to discuss in the comments.

40 Commments

  1. I find AJ Cole the biggest enigma of all the Nats pitching prospects. On the one hand I feel he might be a really good major league pitcher and I mean sooner than later. On the other hand I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t make it. It appears he is being judged on one major league start last year when he was atrocious. I’m not sure I get that (if I’m correct on that assumption). Heck, we’ve all seen Strasburg have a number of terrible starts. Scherzer had three or four last year. Ditto Zimmermann, Gonzalez and Fister. And these players didn’t have the added pressure of having to impress in a debut. I’d bet the ranch that if Giolito gets bombed in his first start, that will be barely a blip in how people judge his prospects to becoming a big league pitcher. (As, of course, it should be.)

    1. I think he’s either going to be a good bullpen piece or a nice back of the rotation starter. His FB peaks around 90 so he seems like another Craig Stammen to be.

    2. Agreed. I don’t know what to make of his last season. If you split it in two it makes sense, but together it’s a mess.

      Ks went down, BBs went up. Not good. But he allowed far fewer hits. Good. All together his ERA was unchanged. I’m worried that he’s missing fewer bats, but his August was really strong. His Ks ticked back up, and he was basically unhittable. It’s impressive to see a pitcher like him finish a season strong.

      Fortunately, he too is one of our few HS draftees, and despite being around for forever, he’s still 23. He can afford to have set back seasons like ’15.

  2. Luke, you got about as good a look as anyone at both Giolito and Lopez in 2015. How do you think they stand/are progressing in the grand scheme of things? Are Simms and A. Williams in the same class, since you also got to see them? I’d be very interested in your thoughts, as we have very little to go on with these guys other than the ruminations of the prospect gurus who may have seen them once or twice, if at all.

    1. Giolito is as advertised and I think it’s just a matter of fine-tuning for him. Lopez still needs work on his secondary offerings and down the stretch it felt like he was working on that almost to the detriment of the game, i.e. he was going to throw something besides his fastball even when the batters *knew* he was going to. I’m not one to get dismissive of poor performance — that’s a canard that the scouting folks lean on WAY TOO HEAVILY — but in this case, I can see it.

      Simms has the makeup and the stuff to be a good pitcher, but I fear he’s a righthanded Tommy Milone in terms of how the Nats regard him. Williams I’m just not sold on and can’t quite put my finger on why. I’d like to have him back at Potomac for a few weeks to figure that out.

      2. Quick adds to big board , Luke.
        Back to holiday chores
        By the way. Does Blier come back to
        Syr in 2016??
        Cue Aerosmith walking the dog

  4. Peric, I thought cole’s fastball was more in the mid nineties. I think I’ve read that just lately on Mash or Insider.

    1. Somewhere in between, according to Pitch f/x. Average FB velocity of 90.6, peak velocity of 93.4. He’s still at an age where it’s quite possible he could even add a bit of velocity. I read that he made some mechanical adjustments when he was sent back down to AAA and that accounted for his excellent finish to the season. It’s hard to tell how much stock to put into that sort of thing, though, until we can see whether he sustains it.

  5. Dan Firova new nats bullpen coach
    Second rounder for Mariners as a catcher .
    Was papa Phil Rizzo in Seattle then ??

  6. Why Phillips @ 34 years removed from the
    Colon deal in 2002 keeping him from DC entry
    @ 27 million owed
    While Desmond @ two years would be 30 plus
    Million ??

        1. Cue the song reunited as we read some
          Of the minor league signings .
          I was hoping for Henderson Alvarez as
          A try. Beane might have found the quiet
          Man for spring.

  8. Like all Nats farm seamheads, I’m dreading the news on who we’re going to lose in the Phillips trade.
    There’s a salary dump angle from the Reds, so it shouldn’t be too bad.
    He says hopefully.

    1. Agreed. Since Phillips is still owed $27M and will be entering his age-35 season, I would not think that the Nats would be giving up top-tier prospects in return. The positive spin for the minor-leaguers is that guys lower down the food chain for the Nats may have a better chance of making it with a “down” organization that is looking to rebuild with youth.

  9. The only name I’ve heard is Brian Goodwin, who actually played pretty well in Winter Ball. The number and quality of prospects will depend upon how much of Phillips salary the Reds are keeping on. If the Nats are paying full freight ($27 million over the next two years), the Reds aren’t getting anything other than a bag of balls.

    3. Agree
      I will be happy with Difo around with Phillips
      To teach the likes of Difo , Taylor , Turner. Etc.
      Still think a parra or equal or better added

  10. FWIW for all you Expo guys out there, Phillips was an Expo draftee, sent to Cleveland in the Colon trade.

  12. Like others here, I prefer to wait until the Nats have actually announced whom they would trade. And I know that Luke does not wanting us talking big club, so I will speak of Phillips and the majors elsewhere.

    The most important thing to me is that the Nats trade people who are peaking and trade from depth. Perhaps Goodwin has peaked. I don’t think Cole or Jordan have peaked. Pitchers like Simms are depth pieces. Voth is not, and if the Phillies could not get him for Papelbon, I would be surprised and vexed if he were part of a Phillips package. Nick Lee is well thought of, and has had decent numbers more recently. But Grace and Solis deserve to be higher in the pecking order.

    I would be sorry if the Nats traded Difo. I am hoping he will get a start in AA blow up. And if a starter has to go, I would rather it be of the Phillips Valdez variety. If nothing more than for my alliterative friend Jeff to pronounce this a Phillips for Phillips trade. But the Nats have depth in the lower minors that should be good trade fodder in a cash swap deal like this.

    1. I have seen Nick Lee bandied about as potentially part of the trade, but there’s nothing concrete out there.

      1. yes, my comments were meant to approximate Ghost of Steve M’s rumor and some other people we could speculate about. It’s natural to look at the higher levels, but the Nats depth is lower, in my estimation.

    2. My comment of the moment Gil is Shackleford
      Seems like a nice bullpen depth add for Sens
      I don’t want to see Difo go . His tools just too
      Off the chart
      Merry Christmas all !
      GG

  13. I remember when the Expos drafted Phillips. He was a great athlete in high school. Nothing like revisiting the trauma of the brain dead Omar Minaya to make me hurl.

    1. GG. The Bud Selig purge the expos
      Before handing off she’ll of org to 29mlb .
      Hmm young Phillips sizemore Lee on club with Soriano
      And others . Hmmmm.

  14. Me too, Forensicane. Was a big Expo fan from the get go, through the good and the bad. But the worst for me was the Colon trade. Phillips, Lee, and Sizemore. I knew with that trade it was all over but the crying.

  15. Jackson – so true. Great line. Man, Loria gutted Montreal like a Madoff client. What an abject dirtbag.

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