Lucas Giolito Headlines Half-Dozen Nats On BA Top 100
Spring training has only just begun but the prospect-ranking season, which never seems to end, culminated last night as Baseball America unveiled its 2015 Top 100 List.
Lucas Giolito, the undisputed* #1 Washington Prospect, came in at #7 this year. Joining him on the list are Michael Taylor (#32), Reynaldo Lopez (#49), Erick Fedde (#90), A.J. Cole (#91), and Joe Ross (#96).* Not counting parents, significant others, and agents, natch
The six prospects on the list is indeed the most ever for the franchise since it relocated from Montreal prior to the 2005 season. The previous high was four in 2011 when Bryce Harper (#1), Danny Espinosa (#66), Derek Norris (#72), and Wilson Ramos (#96) were all ranked. Four times the Nationals had just one prospect ranked in the annual preseason ranking (2005-2007, 2009).
Giolito is marking his third year on the list, having been ranked #21 last year and #67 in 2013, which are the bookends for the Tommy John surgery he underwent in August 2012 shortly after making his pro debut. In 2014, his first full season, he won 10 of 20 starts and turned in 98 innings, with a three-start layoff in May. He struck out 110 while walking just 28 for a robust pitcher’s line of 2.20/3.16/1.00, though he did give up seven HR’s (hence the just slightly better than league-average FIP).
The $64,000 question for 2015 is whether or not Giolito will progress to High-A Potomac after winning 10 of 20 starts made for Low-A Hagerstown in 2014. It lingers because the Nats do have a history of skipping top prospects from Low-A to AA, most recently with Brian Goodwin (2012) and previously with Bryce Harper (2011) and to lesser extent, Stephen Strasburg (2010) as it’s not as unusual for a collegiate “1-1” prospect to debut at that level.
The hope here is that the Nats handle Giolito much like Jordan Zimmermann (2008) or Taylor Jordan (2013) and give him 5-6 starts before sending him on his way to Harrisburg. Potomac opens at home this season, but a case of Hellenic flu could delay his debut for a week and allow for him to start on the road on normal rest four times, should the Nationals decide to split the difference while keeping him away from the DC area, as they’ve also done with high-profile pitchers (Matt Purke, 2012-2013).
On that note, here are the expected assignments for the rest of the Nats Top 100 guys:
- Taylor — AAA Syracuse
- Lopez — A+ Potomac
- Fedde — GCL Nationals
- Cole — AAA Syracuse
- Ross — AA Harrisburg
Feel free to discuss in the comments (and stay warm).
Trea Turner was also in the top 100.
Plus Turner @ 65. It does. Seem like the Nats system is well thought of this year, pretty much across the board.
Still really a system of pitchers and catchers. Severino, Kieboom, and Reetz could end up cracking the list. Raudy Reed with an outside shot as well.
Positionally still pretty weak.
I’m fine with the system being pitching heavy. Pitching prospects can always be turned into position players in today’s game.
Apparently, BA was the only place in America who didn’t know Turner was traded to the Nats.
In their defense, they are just going with the “official” MLB word there. At the moment Turner’s services are still officially dedicated to the Padres organization. And it is a meaningful distinction, because I believe that, until June, the risk of catastrophic injury to Turner rests with the Padres. I would expect that the trade included a slate of possible alternatives to complete the trade in such an event.
Keith Law brought up a good point as to why this is so stupid to make this wait until June 1. “It’s a cold day and a wet playing field in April, who are you going to put out on to the field, your stud prospect or the guy who belongs to another team”.
Well, how smart it is to throw the “other guy’s player” out on the field depends on what contingencies are built into the deal. Putting aside the issue of getting a reputation for dealing in bad faith in your first full year as a GM.
I’ll bet that (save MLB changing their rules just for the Nats & Padres, which probably doesn’t happen without being bargained for in the next CBA) the Nats and Padres come to some sort of agreement on his usage prior the season.
If I were the Nats … i’d tell the Padres to just keep him in extended spring. Its too bad we don’t have a “loaner system” for players like the pro soccer leagues. We could just loan guys here or there.
It’s been well documented that PTBNLs have been loaned before. The problem was that in previous circumstances so few people knew that it wasn’t a big deal. It won’t happen here because MLB would be tacitly condoning the circumvention of the Pete Incavilgia rule. The bigger question is whether they close this loophole or repeal the rule in the next CBA. Quite frankly, I think it’ll be forgotten by then, given the threat/possibility of an international draft that I believe will be a bigger deal.
Well, it probably won’t be a cold, wet day in April since the Pads’ A+ team is in the desert (Lake Elsinore)!
Yes, there is risk, for both teams – SD in that it would have to come up with someone else if Turner were to get hurt; DC in that the Nats want that specific SS prospect. But do you sacrifice basically half a season of development for safety purposes? I don’t think so. I would think the Nats would want him playing at A+, progressing as rapidly as possible. There would be a small hope that Turner, err, He Who Should Not Be Named, could go to Harrisburg in mid-June if he starts strong at A+ (a distinct possibility in the CA League). He’ll more likely go to Potomac anyway, but there’s no hope of Harrisburg if he doesn’t really play until June.
Exactly. It may be a technicality, but Turner’s not a National yet. I think the fears that the Padres will abuse him are, as you’ve noted, overblown if not imaginary. The Padres are not going to make any major move with Turner without consulting the Nationals, officially or otherwise.
Now, you’ve got me concerned about having to add in “What Did Trea Turner Do?” into the daily template.
One big thing is that the Nats only had 1 prospect (Giolito) on BA’s 2014 top 100, so jumping from one to 6-7 is a testament to the success of the offseason trades and big steps forward by prospects already in the pipeline. Also of note is that Wilmer Difo is listed as a player who can jump into next year’s top 100 with a big season to supplement his breakout performance from last season.
Good point, Melissa. And with only one of the players in the Top 100 even somewhat likely to graduate (Taylor – I think Cole is a longshot given the pitching depth in the organization) it will be interesting to see where the organization ranks this time next year.
Of course, with several free agents on the team this year, it’s a good thing to have the depth queue’d up!
It’s time matty9 starts using the Roger craig line. Hum
Hum, baby !!!