The Preliminary 2015 Watchlist
Welcome to the first pass on what will become the fifth watchlist in this site’s history. For folks unfamiliar with what we’re trying to do here, here’s a quick reminder. I can’t stand Top 10/15/25/6/4 lists (I get that they drive traffic, but so do cheesecake pics, a.k.a. “The Other Rule 5”) because I feel they just lead to pointless arguments over whether Prospect A should be ranked above or below Prospect B.
So I created a list of prospects, broken down by position, that were worth keeping an eye on — a watchlist. It’s not a list of guys that are on the verge on becoming major-leaguers. It’s a list of players that have shown some promise. That’s it.
The watchlist used to be quite large — nearly 90 players, but I’ve since learned to be less inclusive as I’ve become more experienced in prospect following. While I see most of these guys for at least part of one season as a season-ticket holder to Potomac, Washington’s High-A affiliate, until then I have to scout by boxscore or extrapolate from other first-person accounts, which ranges in quality from amateur to semi-pro.
I don’t put very much credence into draft position. That’s like expecting honesty in personal ads*. Certain names get brought up ad nauseum because of when they were drafted or how large their bonus was. I don’t care. I understand that a higher draft pick will get more chances and lower one will not. How players are acquired is beast unto itself that I understand is an art; it just doesn’t interest me and I’ll defer to those that do. Don’t make me paraphrase Eddie Murphy’s drunken father (NSFW).
* Still waiting for “Gold Digger Seeks Sugar Daddy”
Before I go any further… let’s review the caveats:
It’s not a depth chart… Obviously, when you arrange it the way I have — by the highest level played to date — it’s going to look like it at first glance. That also doesn’t mean that the guys near the top of a column are “better” than the guys at the bottom; it just means they’ve played at higher level.
It’s (mostly) based on 2014 usage… The Nats have a habit of rotating guys between 2B, 3B, and SS which makes it a little difficult to slot guys, especially at the short-season levels (DSL, GCL, NYPL). So sometimes I have to be arbitrary and pick the slot based on usage or aesthetics.
It’s preliminary… I like prospect gurus like John Sickels who solicit comments and feedback. While I’m aware that will include some complaints, it’s worth it if that’s what it takes to get some thoughtful feedback and/or suggestions.
Sadly, the M*A*S*H category has returned. I had hoped it wouldn’t, and as you might expect, it’s mostly pitchers. I had thought about putting both Brian Goodwin and Drew Vettleson there, but opted not to because the list of outfielders is already pretty short (maybe an overcorrection to last year’s list of OFs).
Consequently, I have combined the notables into a single column for layout purposes. As aforementioned, I was more judicious (or capricious) this time, choosing just 10 names versus 18 a year ago and 16 two years ago. It’s worth noting that very few of the notables have reappeared in subsequent watchlists — just six, not counting guys that have reappeared via the M*A*S*H category.
As always, feel free to discuss in the comments… just keep it civil. The players, their families, and their agents are reading, too. 😉
| C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF |
| Severino | Skole | Renda | S. Perez |
Ward | Souza |
| Kieboom | Wooten | Davidson | Difo | Gunter | Taylor |
| Read | Yezzo | Mejia | Abreu | Gutierrez | Goodwin |
| Reetz | Marmolejos-Diaz | T. Alvarez |
Lora | Aguero | Vettleson |
| Ballou | |||||
| Bautista | |||||
| Carey | |||||
| Corredor | |||||
| RHPs | LHPs | DSL Bats | DSL Arms | M*A*S*H | Notables |
| Hill | Grace | Pimentel | Baez | Rosenbaum | Kobernus |
| Cole | Br. Harper |
Agustin | Fuentes | F. Rivero | |
| Voth | Spann | Robles | Cespedes | Purke | Dykstra |
| Simms | Silvestre | Mota | Y. Ramirez |
Solis | Benincasa |
| Dickson | Thomas | A. Martinez |
Bermudez | J. Rodriguez |
Self |
| Mendez | Walsh | Fedde | Pleffner | ||
| Giolito | Ott | Turnbull | |||
| Suero | Reynoso | Johansen | |||
| R. Lopez |
Pivetta | ||||
| Dickey | |||||
| M. Sanchez |
|||||
| McDowell | |||||
| Je. Ramirez |
|||||
| L. Reyes |
|||||
| Valerio |
|||||
| Morales |
Isn’t Rosenbaum a MLFA?
No. He’s entering his final season under Nats control in 2015, which will, if all goes well, will be an audition at Auburn to prove that he’s healthy.
Hooray, the Watchlist lives! What’s most striking to me on first glance in how far down the food chain nearly all the infielders are. It’s basically an A-ball list plus Skole. Ditto for the catchers, although that seems to be a strong group of them.
Difo split time almost equally between SS and 2B. I thought I had heard that he projects more as a 2B, but I could be wrong about that. I wonder if he will be in Potomac or will get fast-tracked because of the organizational need in the INF. Renda and Perez would figure to be the combo at Harrisburg, though. Dykstra, who seems to have settled at 2B, has hit well enough to advance to Syracuse; not sure what the future holds for Hague.
I was surprised to see Wooten listed at 1B, as I thought of his as an OF when he was acquired. In looking at his stats, I see that he was mostly an OF in the OAK organization but that he split time almost equally for the Nats in 2014 between 1B and 3B, I guess because of the Nats’ INF needs and OF demi-glut.
Speaking of the OF, has there been any word about where Hood has signed?
Sending Difo to Harrisburg seems to be popular idea, but it would mean that either Renda or Perez would be held down or switch positions. Renda doesn’t have the arm to play anywhere but 2B or the bat to play to LF. Perez certainly has the arm to play 3B. Not sure what the rush is — none of these players is going to solve the 2B problem in DC in 2015. Seems the smarter move is to move everyone up one level and then see who adjusts and who doesn’t.
Destin went to the Cleveland Indians
Great preliminary list Luke. Is Leon still a rookie? I know his ABs were under 130 but with all of Ramos’s DL time didn’t he have over 45 pre September days on the active roster which should mean he is no longer a rookie? It looks like he was on from April 2 – May 16 and then again from June 11-26. Some relievers who I thought maybe deserved some consideration: L. Torres, P. Valdez, T. Mapes, and D. Napoli. Don’t know that Simms, Dickson, McDowell, Je. Ramirez, Reyes, Valerio, Morales, and Reynoso did enough in 2014 to make the list. Not that he belongs on the Watch List, but just curious if Blake Kelso is still with the organization?
Good catch on Leon — guys that just sit the bench are more difficult to catch; I wish there were a resource or something on baseball-reference that indicated rookie eligibility. Instead, I have to eyeball it and look for sub-130PAs, sub-50IP and hope.
I’m about 90% certain Kelso is gone. A longstanding complaint is that both BA and MiLB.com are shitty when it comes to guys that go to XST and are released or retired.
There’s always reason to argue both ways with short-season guys and relievers due to sample size. Simms and Dickson are easier to defend: Simms pitched at three levels and was age-appropriate. He might not have been strong at AA, and some might argue he was plugged in rather than activate Paul Menhart or sign another body from the indys. Dickson had a very strong second half for Potomac and was a different pitcher by September than he was in June.
Luke, I am glad the question was asked
About Danny Rose since you have a few other
Players on the big board I thought were free agents
Notably b laird on Cuse .
Yes, I read your chart as though written in sand
Since injuries and trades could happen.
Many surprises to follow as play resumes
Next spring. The auburn pitching corp should
Write more names into our heads lead by borque
And Duke Drew Von Dude.
Not to mention that nats have three Latin LHPs
On DL.
12 days to rule 5.
Luke, are you still thinking Cat Ballou will repeat
a plus to start 2015???
I think if Ballou is sent to Harrisburg it’s a sink-or-swim move since he’ll be 25 to start the season, which is old for AA, never mind High-A.
My mistake on Laird — I had moved him to the free agent list on the Releases sheet, but forgot to also delete him off of the Syracuse roster.
Ok, Luke. The force is still with you !
Busy life comes first .
My eye brows went up with your activate
Paul Menhart thought. Lol!
Rule 5. I expect a few bodies added
To farm.
In my observation. Dickson was the
Opitome of the Potomac pole to pole
Surprise. Granted he may just ceiling
@ city isle
Is Jefry Rodriguez injured? I know that he had some tendonitis issues last season, but I had thought that he was expected to be 100% by now. I just want to reassure myself that he hasn’t gotten some drastic long term injury; he’s already gotten some positive notice in Baseball Prospectus and other sites, so it would be very disappointing were he to have another setback beyond the tedonitis.
The late start (May 25) and the early finish (July 1) are tell-tale signs to me that it’s more than just tendonitis.
JefryRod must be experiencing the growing
Pains two years removed from transitioning from
Everyday player to pitcher
Luke. Jefry Rod more than tendinitis?
Shoulder ? Elbow ? TJ ?
This year should reveal what toolsy
Mates surround corredor @ DSL/ GCL
– pending camp promotions
Hey, I’m just thrilled the Watchlist lives on, thought for sure it would be a casualty.
This watchlist is good for at least 2-3 weeks of conversation.
Mark L you hit the nail on the head. Luke could publish monthly if he was going to be offering this much feedback on quality posts and still be a relevant voice in the Natmosphere. I have no idea what the future holds for me, but I do know that my sports #socialmedia stuff seems to work better and that I will likely accomplish more work wise if I slow down a bit and go to more games, especially in Hagerstown now that we know that the team will stay. Very sad to see Destin Hood, a talking point in my day job, will likely not be wearing a Nats MLB uniform but his even remaining in minor league baseball is a major victory. That guy is supposed to be playing on Sundays by now. His choice to take the road less traveled for black athletes need to be celebrated a lot more than it is. Unfortunately the beat writers are unlikely to take interest in a Black Bonus Baby who never really threatened to break into DC circles.
Mark L- so agree.
It’s a conversation cyber bus stop of
Which kids we hope flourish in spring and later.
Florentino !
Soul drummer. Good for good to head to AL org
Who could expedite his career path with the DL
Slot.
As we await the tender / non- tender moves
– cue Elvis love me tender – I wish rizzo talks
With Texas about several of his arms after
Looking @ BA ranger top ten prospects
Where Lewis Brinson did not crack. Wow!
Carry on nats fans.
This wet weather deserves some pat methany
With Dave holland and Lyle Mays
Try this for 20-30 days at a stretch over six-to-seven months. There’s reason why the suicide rate is so high in the Pacific NW.
What about catcher Craig Manuel?
Serviceable backup catcher but not likely to go much farther up the ladder than he has thus far.
Luke. Agree on the pudget sound
Cranial effect !
Interesting to see what orioles do when
Markakis leaves. Rasmus and kids 2015?
Ty Luke for all the soul you give to this
Site !
Looking at the watchlist again, I want to give another shoutout to the most anonymous stud prospect in the system.
That quiet looking R. Lopez under RH Pitchers is Reynaldo Lopez. He’s not movie star handsome and probably doesn’t speak much English, but his numbers are better than L.G’s, who everyone says is the # 1 prospect in the system.
Let’s look again at the numbers:
83 innings — WHIP of 0.82 (!!!)
Batters hit .149 off him & his Strikeout to Walk ratio is 70/26.
At the ripe age of 20.
AND he’s still on his 1st elbow.
Just sayin’
Yep, I’d agree – he certainly seems like one to watch for next year. He’s been getting quite a lot of love from the end of season prospect lists (Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus) – will be interesting to see where Sickels’ has him pegged when his Nats prospects review comes out…..
Definitely the Nats player who has advanced most up the prospects lists over the course of 2014….
I love to out on the long branch :
Drew Von Ordon.
Lopez has truly flashed his star stuff
But nats did draft some stardust last June
I usually just come here to read (both articles and comments are terrific).
I have a question about Matt Purke.
I understand that he is off the 40 man roster and signed a minor league deal.
I am guessing that is just a one year deal.
What are our options for him at the end of this deal? Can we put him back on the 40 man roster if he shows promise?
If we don’t do that, is he a free agent and can he sign with anyone?
If we do put him back on the 40 man roster, I believe he still has one option where we could send him back to the minors for 2016 but I am not sure if that is correct either.
Thanks in advance for any and all answers.
Anybody can be put on the 40-man roster at any time, but you can only stash someone in the minors for a maximum of four years — and that’s only if you have less than five full seasons of professional experience. Purke would qualify for fourth option because, as we all know too well, he has one (1) full season to date (2013 – signed too late for 2011, hurt in 2012, hurt in 2014).
Could the Nats do that to prevent him from becoming a free agent? Sure. Will they do it? That’s debatable. Purke would have to show so much promise that the powers that be would be dead certain he’ll be a contributor in 2017 (i.e. he can spend all of 2016 in the minors if needed for his final option) based on what will likely be 50 or so innings max in the 2015 regular season, maybe another 20 or so next fall.
Who fills Ladniers chair ??
Can you add a little for why Pedro Severino is so high on the board? He has not shown much as far as being a top tier prospect. Also, do you see Tony Renda making the show one day?