Offseason Update: Oct. 19, 2014
Post number 2000 is a bit of a smorgasbord, which many of these weekly posts have been and probably will be this offseason. So let’s just jump into it…
AFL UPDATE
Without the daily coverage, and with less-than-stellar performances, the four-game win streak by the Mesa Solar Sox seems a bit anti-climactic to pass along. Felipe Rivero got the Jack Morris win in the 8-4 triumph, allowing three runs in two and 2/3rds innings, though Derek Self would have gotten it in a regular-season contest for his two and 1/3rd scoreless innings of relief. Tony Renda tripled in two while Pedro Severino hit a sac fly. Matt Grace also turned in an efficient outing of five outs on 14 pitches, nine for strikes.
BA TOP 20 PROSPECT LISTS
Michael Taylor was voted the #1 prospect in the Eastern League, which is actually a bit of a shock when you consider that the #2 prospect, Mookie Betts played 52 games for the Red Sox (losing rookie status doesn’t disqualify players from these lists). In the “chat,” others brought up that point, noting how much better Betts performed at AAA and in the majors. Josh Norris defended his decision thusly: “In reality, it’s not 1 and 2 for me, it’s 1 and 1a. The difference for me is Taylor has the potential for more power, is a true center fielder with game-changing range in the outfield and has a well above-average arm.”
A.J. Cole was “only” the #15 E.L. prospect but ranked as the #7 I.L. prospect, which is only dissonant to the folks who mistakenly believe AAA is the highest level for prospects, as opposed to a place for refinement and a holding ground for replacement-level players. While noting his propensity to give up the longball, the scouts project the turns-23-in-January righty as a No. 3 starter, praising improvements in his secondary pitches. Steve Souza was ranked #5 while former farmhands Robbie Ray and Alex Meyer were nos. 8 and 9 respectively.
TRANSACTION UPDATE
It’s not clear which Felix Taveras the Nats signed in the latest missive from BA, but the list of catchers that signed or re-signed is awfully familiar:
- Jeff Howell
- Devin Ivany
- Sean McCauley
- Andruth Ramirez
Before folks get too excited, recall that McCauley spent 2014 as a player-coach and appears headed towards the same role. Given that Ivany and Ramirez did not play this past season, it might be fair to guess that one or both will be serving in the same capacity.
MORE ON THE MINORS LAWSUIT
One of the ugly truths about the minors is how poorly these guys are paid. At some levels, the guys washing the uniforms make more than the guys wearing them. That’s not news per se, but earlier this summer, a class-action lawsuit was filed by former Giants prospect-turned-lawyer Garrett Broshuis on behalf of former minor-leaguers (a group that includes former Nats farmhands Tim Pahuta and Brett Newsome) has generated headlines and more interest in the subject. This week, Toronto Star reporter Brendan Kennedy filed this story that goes into detail about the economics of minor-league baseball, and makes some rather telling comparisons to minor-league hockey.
THE HAGERSTOWN SUNS
The Suns lost in the Sally League Finals for the second straight year but won 87 regular-season games and nearly took both halves. Despite fielding a winning team with exciting prospects, the locals voted with their feet and stayed away as attendance — which is routinely exaggerated anyway — fell to below 1,000 at 979 per date (also consider that the #13 team averaged 1,925). While the PDC was renewed, it’s doubtful this trend will reverse itself until the team is under new ownership and/or the facilities are renovated or replaced.
As you might expect from the second-best team in the league, the Suns leveraged strong pitching (4.11 R/G; Lg. Avg 4.58) and strong hitting (4.99 R/G) while committing the fewest errors (118 vs. 152). The old-for-the-level report: 22.2 vs. 21.5 for the bats, 21.8 vs. 21.8 for the arms. Expectations for this crew to match the 2013’s effort in the Carolina League will probably be high.
Now, for the obligatory Top 5’s…
| TOP 5 BATS | TOP 5 ARMS |
| 1. Wilmer Difo, 2B/SS, .280 GPA, 14HR, 49SB | 1. Lucas Giolito, RHP, 2.20/3.16/1.00, 10.1 K/9, .196 OBA |
| 2. Spencer Kieboom, C, .283 GPA, .500 SLG% | 2. Austin Voth, RHP, 2.45/2.68/1.05, 1HR in 69.2IP |
| 3. Drew Ward, 3B, .257 GPA, 42BB | 3. Wander Suero, RHP, 2.13/3.16/0.97, 1.38 BB/9 |
| 4. Rafael Bautista, CF, .249 GPA, 69SB | 4. Justin Thomas, LHP, 2.78/3.01/1.08, 1.39 BB/9 |
| 5. James Yezzo, 1B, .239 GPA, .991FA | 5. Jake Walsh, LHP, 1.45/3.33/0.87, .152 OBA |
Honorable mentions go to Carlos Lopez and David Napoli, as we hit the point where all things are not equal and performance relative to age takes greater precedence. A couple of the bats were also held back for consideration for the Potomac list. As always, if you’d like to see the entire team’s stats, just click here.
Felipe Rivero either turned his right ankle or injured his knee on a pitch. He was not able to put weight on it when he went into the clubhouse.
I will try to find out the nature of the injury and whether or not he will be able to continue.
Since we are discussing Baseball America, among other things, it is worth revisiting the 2014 draft in the context of the departure of Bryan Minnitti. The BBA draft report card, albeit arbitrary, does cite the Nats in one area only – probably the worst of lists — “the ones that got away.”
It’s naturally unpleasant to see the Nats referenced for 3 (!) of the 5 entries on that list. Seeing as Minnitti had the role in negotiating contracts, etc., and seeing as there has yet to be agreement with Desmond, Fister, and Zimmerman, I wonder if the timing of Minnitti’s departure, regarded though he may be, may relate to accountability for these off-the-field disappointments?
And, the contemplated addition of Bob Miller — likely behind the Homer Bailey signing and perhaps an ingredient in the successful pursuit of Chapman. Wonder what the others think about this, as I’ve not seen it mentioned elsewhere…
This is a free forum and my expression is just that – free from
Reacting to another opinion .
We could debate whether signing Fedde was
Worth losing the possible lefty heir to Gio in a future
Rotation in another year and a slugging first baseman
From Nevada- Reno.
As an old expo fan who chose to root for
The re – clothed Nats , I understood that the
Owner who took on the project in building
Up the nats with the MASN contract hanging over
His shoulder would only in unison with
A certain window with team’s zenith .
Honestly , all this talk about Jordan Zimmermann
In 2015 should be laced with whether Strasburg
Should be the guy to keep if his anticipated
Cy Young year ever materializes .
If not – San Diego would listen to trade offers
And a handsome one @ that .
The ones that got away? That’s like looking back
@ Expo drafts saying ” what if expos signed
Mike Boddicker and Jim DeShais ( cub color guy
On WGN) out of high school. ( on a tangent – what
If Scott Sanderson pitched more that 16 starts
For expos to match the other 3 guns @ 30-32
Starts.
This early exit stung but as Aaron Rodgers
Said a few weeks ago to packer fans – relax!
Look @ the results in GB
Lol!
with that said, I think you raised a great point about Strasburg. It reminds me (and you I am sure) about the endless speculation of the Expos acquiring Eric Gagne to populate the Big Orifice. If anyone would overpay, it would be the Padres, and Mike Rizzo is no Jim Fanning/Omar Minaya.
It’s also worth pointing out that if the issue was fedde vs. Suarez and Byler, it never should have come to that. It is the advanced homework that tells an organization, for example, that they can get a Travis Ott in the 25th round because of the hometown factor and a desire to go pro. If the Nats advanced the Va/Md/DC/Wv area, and maintain their reputation as a first class organization, perhaps one days rounds 30-40 will mean something when a high schooler’s name is called.
There must be something about Fedde they really like in spite of the TJ surgery. As far as Gio’s heir apparent there still is 1st round pick Detwiler? Purke and Solis albeit older are still in the mix. Kyle Turnbull who was drafted right after Matt Purke was key to the P-Nats playoff victories albeit as a reliever. Yes, they are all older prospects now … and Sylvestre and Spann are still in the mix as well. Aaron Laffey had a pretty good year but there wasn’t the same interest in using him as there was with Zach Duke before him? Rizzo needs an infusion of left-handed pitching talent in his bullpen .. but with the draft cap restrictions … the butt-end pick in the draft? Looks like he’ll have to get it from the DR (nothing to be seen there) or through trades? He does have a couple of starters he might have to deal and the return on both should be huge. He should in theory be able to do better than Rivero and Mooneyham?
The Nats will have 2 LHP in the bullpen next year (Thornton & Blevins) and possibly Detwiler if they don’t trade him. They can wait. Which is good, because Purke & Solis aren’t going to be there Purke is out of options, and likely gets waived even if he HAD options.
No disagreements, Jeff, only saying that As Minnitti’s departure is a mystery, does this relate to off field disappointments? Whether it matters or not long term is immaterial.
The Nats replaced Eckstein less than a year after 98 wins. Did it matter? No, sort of (see NLDS). But we know why it happened.
Good points; I was wondering the same things. You worded it better than I would have.
I wonder if Minnitti’s departure has to do with the hiring into baseball operations of non-baseball accountant type Ted Towne. He was Ted Lerner’s comptroller in the commercial realestate construction arena. I wonder if many of Minniti’s responsibilities were given to Ted Towne as the defacto Baseball operations CFO? Up to and including contract negotations etc?
Lots of potentially ginormous mistakes glaring in the headlights: starting with the loss of most of Rizzo’s highly touted braintrust hired between 2009-2010 to make the Nats into a first class baseball operation: Dana Brown, Roy Clark, Bryan Minniti and uber consultant Davey Johnson. That’s a whole heck of a lot of baseball brainpower. Amanda Comack’s excellent recent post on the CurlyW blog points to vast improvements in the sabermatrican end of things … especially in the realm of statistical prediction versus just historical data. Is there going to be a slant more in that direction versus the using the vast experience of Rizzo’s “gray heads”? Kris Kline and Phil Rizzo still in house but both are very loyal Rizzo men and so perhaps less objective to toward his moves?
Then there’s the raw rookie manager Rizzo hired Matt Williams who was schooled by Boochy in the playoffs? Another “Williams” raw rookie managed like Ted. But without Ted’s HOF credentials as the best hitter in the history of baseball along with a sterling reputation as the premier hitting instructor? Could be another harbinger looming in the near term?
And of course the Ted Towne hiring (or transfer) (as mentioned above) and the construction of the largest segment of baseball operations directly reporting to him? Will this be more trouble looming on the horizon?
Forensicane. The disappointment could lie
In the Preperation for all the arbitration cases
Plus the super two negotiations in Desmond
And JoZimm. Let’s pray miller comes on board
And does wizardry work .
In the mean time , do the nats have enough
Poker chips to add a guy like zobrist , and or
One of those ranger Latin studs ? The bench
Would look nice with doumit and Drew .
Rizzo will fill the shopping list ok
Zobrist is 34 and more of an outfielder now. Not someone Rizzo would place at 2nd base. Plus? Even with the subtraction of LaRoche and Soriano payroll estimates are racing up to 140 million without a free agent signing or the bench? What role will Ted Towne play in imposing a less fluid budget on baseball operations?
Zobrist is more of an OF now? Joe Maddon, widely regarded as one of the best managers in MLB, seems to disagree. Zobrist played in the IF 2/3 of the time – a fair amount at SS, for goodness’ sake. Fangraphs seems to think he did well there, too. If the Nats got Zobrist he’d be just fine for a year. I wouldn’t make a long term commitment, no. But he’d be a great get for the Nationals. He’s so valuable I had just assumed the Rays would keep him. I still think they do (with their rotation they are contenders & need him), but the organizational churn at least makes it possible they’d let him go.
Clarification: Zobrist did well at second. I didn’t check his numbers at SS
Drew is classic buy low.
Rizzo is fun to watch. He does love to get *his* players that he pursues, be they Span or Lobaton. But then there are the Fisters, Cabreras and Gios that bolt from the blue. I agree that he will fill the shopping list. He is not afraid to pull the trigger and learns from his mistakes.
Look at the Fernando Abad deal. Wooten was the MVP in the Potomac run. At his second level of the year. And that was for a guy whom we were clearing to make roster space. There are clearly 40 man decisions to be made and before we get needs met, we hopefully can get meaningful value for those who are not on the 40-deep.
That will be a great exercise for us to undertake here. The whispers would add Difo. Grace is auditioning in the AFL. And then there is Skole (whom I still believe in, because he hits power in the clutch), and Hood.
Lonnie Chisenhall. Bench player in NL??
Infield rotation. Perhaps some OF mixed with a signed
Doumit?
They have to add Skole. Left-handed patient power bat. They really have no other. There’s Goodwin who had an off year in AAA this past season, in part perhaps due to injuries although that is debatable. But he hasn’t been the hitter that Skole continues to be.
Yes, interesting 40-man roster moves. AJ Cole for certain.
Skole has hope, but the injury and an unremarkable season in AA hurt him. He can’t PR or be a defensive replacement, so he’s got to hit his way onto a 25 man roster & stay there. Rule 5 guys tend to be relief pitchers, backup catchers, or position players with speed & versatility – easier to keep as the 25th man on the roster & still get use. Skole isn’t that guy.
Forensicane. We are in the transition period
Called – until Skole. Yes, Wooten was a nice chip added
For a guy picked up as a free agent .
Time will tell which guys get pushed up to Cuse
Due to winter trades ( Vettleson and or Ramsey due to
Goodwin dealt ) or ( Keyes for Moore )
Today’s word is mud. Poor dog walking weather
And jealous canine to posting notes on this site
Kkkkkk.
My canine still thinks he can outrun span
And have a better OBP! Kkkkkk
Cue pat methany tune. Spring ain’t here
Keyes and Moore right-handed bats. Rizzo appears to strongly favor the left-handed hitters.
f: good point the other day about rounds
34-40. Flier rounds catching a fly once in
Awhile.
Ott is a great kid. Very sociable in Hagerstown
Before games.
I am sure that the closer we get to spring
Harrisburg fans will begin imagining the
Crack jack box dimensions in relation to the
Potomac kids bumping up a level . Pleffner leading
Off that thought train followed by Severino ,
Then Estarlin and miller ( time). Tejeda , too!
Personal question–sorry Luke. Jeff, you were obviously a Montreal fan. Does that mean you are also a Montrealer or Canadian?
No. I was one of those teens who were
Amazed by the post Olympics Montreal
Talent rush combined with NBC coverage
In Montreal with Gowdy/ Kubek.
Grew up in WIS where Buck Rodgers
Learned under Bamburger before his unfortunate
Axing in favor of Harvey Kuehn. Yes, the second
Dalton gang after Baltimore.
Once walked out of a brewer game vs Detroit
Right when Rusty Staub cranked a grand slam.
Nostalgia! I have a Rusty Staub bobble head. And I sneaked out of the corn field to watch Don Larson’s perfect game on TV. Sigh! Guess I am a tad ‘over the hill’.
They don’t make bobble heads like they used to with BIG
Heads that truly bobbled
Floating a question for winter: Vettleson vs Ramsey .
Drew had 8 HRs Caleb 1. Both did not break
.250. Both could use winter play?
Easy answer Jeff? Vettleson: left-handed bat, athletic and probably could switch hit since he is truly ambidextrous in every way. The guy used to pitch with both arms! Vettleson has injury issues this season. We’ll have to see what he looks like next season.
Yes, Peric. Ramsey still an interesting player.
Meanwhile , Jordan with surgery makes spring interesting .
Cole, Voth in the mix for that AAA shuttle spot
If Treinen traded?
Whatever the result with Ivany, I do love that, with his addition, we’ve doubled the number of MTL-draftees on the organization’s player rosters.