Hello, October
I had been hoping as I plugged away at this week’s column/post during my time confetti to be able to make some reference to how the parent club is doing in the playoffs. Now, I’m just hoping this will get read between wailing and second-guessing from last night’s 2-1 loss in 18 innings.
ARIZONA FALL LEAGUE
The “other” fall baseball starts up on Tuesday, with sponsor-contrived exhibition festivities held last night (hence, the pic). It looks like there won’t be a taxi squad guy this year, as the Nationals also officially placed the seven players named in late August onto the roster of the Mesa Solar Sox.
BA TOP 20 PROSPECT LISTS
The love-fest for Reynaldo Lopez continues as Baseball America named him the #2 prospect in the New York Penn League, citing what we all know now: a 96-99 FB, a killer 11-5 CV, and a devastating changeup. Also named (#13) was catcher Raudy Read, who may be more intriguing given how thin the position had gotten. The trio of Pedro Severino, Read and Reetz are all under 22 and should populate the rosters at AA, Low-A, and SS-A with a resurgent Spencer Kieboom the likely starter at High-A (though he’ll be 24).
BA loves to double-dip, which is why Lopez got the nod as the #3 prospect of the South Atlantic League, two spots behind Lucas Giolito. In a bigger market, or a true baseball town, these two would have a nickname by now (Giopez?) though I suspect they won’t be teammates again until they’re both in AA. Coming in at #14 for the Sally Top 20 was Wilmer Difo, which I suspect is a function of his age (22) as twelve of the thirteen players ranked above him were 21 or younger.
TRANSACTION STUFF
So far, it’s quiet, which is the norm. Thus far, two players have been re-signed for next year — IF Cutter Dykstra and RHP Sam Runion. As much as we’d like to read into that, Occam’s Razor suggests it’s simply that both the organization and the player are content to continue with the 2014 arrangement for 2015.
2014 AFFILIATE SHUFFLE
Thankfully, the Nats affiliates will remain the same for another two years, which is hardly a shock — even with the rumblings in Hagerstown and Fredericksburg, which continues to be more talk than walk. It does however mean that they’ll be seeing some new opponents, as the Rockies join the Eastern League and the Cubs join the Carolina League, replacing the Twins and Rangers, respectively. Jamestown will be moving to Morgantown, which will require some new scheduling for Auburn and longer bus rides for everyone.
THE GCL NATIONALS
Let’s face it: No matter what this team did in 2014, it would be a disappointment compared to 2013. It also bears repeating that folks shouldn’t get too high or too low about performance in the short-season leagues (and yes, I’ve been guilty of that “crime”). So even though the team reverted to the mean — 25-35, .417 — there’s still some kids to get excited about (ok, that sounds a little creepy).
Offensively, the team was pretty much league average (4.32 vs. 4.37) but the pitching was second-worst in the league, giving up nearly a run more per game (5.32 vs. 4.37).
Without further ado…
| TOP 5 BATS | TOP 5 ARMS |
| 1. Jakson Reetz, C, .285 GPA, 26BB in 43G | 1. Jean Ramirez, RHP, 3.41/3.60/1.45, 0HR allowed in 36⅔ IP |
| 2. Kelvin Gutierrez, 3B, .250 GPA, .934FA | 2. Luis Reyes, RHP, 4.42/3.86/1.42, 2.95 BB/9 |
| 3. Aldrem Corredor, LF, .256 GPA, .411 OBP | 3. Yorlin Reynoso, LHP, 3.38/3.97/1.75, 73.8 LOB% |
| 4. Thomas Alvarez, 2B, .253 GPA, 4.65 RF/G | 4. Maximo Valerio, RHP, 5.23/4.28/1.45, 7.3 K/9 |
| 5. “Fred” Aguero, IF, .249 GPA, .400 SLG | 5. Jose Morales, RHP, 4.68/4.58/1.68, 3.03 BB/9 |
I’d give an honorable mention to Edwin Lora who batted .293 and stole 13 bases, but worry about the lack of doubles (just eight out of 53 hits). It was a stretch to name five pitchers, as it seemed like the best you could say for most of these guys is that they were still teenagers. Folks who are interested in seeing the entire team’s stats, should click here.
Love-fest is a perfect term for Lopez. As Foresicane pointed out, the Nats paid a whopping $17,000 for him and he spent 2014 being totally lights out.
There’s some major catching talent coming up the pipeline. Nothing for 2015, but the big league club is okay for next year.
Hey, hey! I see Fred. good job Luke.
for those finding my communications needing cliff notes for code. just down a few Brazilian caprihanas and jack up the sugar content
and add jet lag!
kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk.
the Latin kids are coming, Jose Rijo!
Considering the SAL list for BA, and the inclination for double dipping that you point out, it reflects that the BA list is heavy on age-ism and measurables (height, body type, etc). I say this because Difo is 5’10 yet the same magazine rated him the best power-speed combo middle infield prospect in the entire minor leagues just a few weeks ago. So go figure.
The other point to take away is that in spite of all of the love for Giolito and Lopez, it was Voth who not only was promoted, but tore through A+ afterward. So I wonder whether, for Voth, the take on him at a level more commensurate with his age, will reward his dominance.
I’ll be curious to see if any of these make the jump past Potomac into AA ball after Spring Training closes down and everyone goes north. Particularly interesting given that this is the final year for Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister with Desmond’s the following season. Right now Zimmermann looks like he could ask for the sky and get it. Fister, just past age 30, also seems likely to be able to command a significant long-term contract.
Many critics of Rizzo point to Strasburg and Harper as no-brainer draft picks but their arguments seem to fail miserably when faced with Zimmermann as an example. Here’s a player Rizzo literally had to fight to draft but somehow managed to prevail. And right now he must be one of the most valuable assets the Nationals organization has ever developed. I suspect it will be very tough for Rizzo to lose him.
I can’t remember the Nats vaulting any pitchers two levels. Gio is not just any pitcher. But there is no stunting his development to get starts in Potomac and moving him up faster if he dominated. Taylor Jordan was not overlooked in A+ and made it up to AA soon enough.
Also, with returnees (Rivero, Purke, Voth, Simms) and starters in A+ who may be ready to be bumped up (Dickson, Silvestre, Spann), the move would be completely on merit, rather than opening.
Lopez is young and there is no need to overshoot with him, though they put him right into Hagerstown before moving him to a level where he could get his bearings and take off.
Happy that Fister is on the bump next. Can’t think of a better stopper. And so I hope that he is resigned.
I believe that Strasburg jumped two levels. Later did the lower levels as a part of his rehab from Tommy John’s.
Zimmermann went from SS-A (2007) to High-A in 2008, where he made four starts before going to AA for the rest of the year. I’d like see Giolito in Potomac for four to six weeks, but am fully prepared for him to skip the level, which can plausibly defended by the brass saying that he wasn’t promoted this past August because they wanted (a) to build his confidence (b) not disrupt the development of Spann/Dickson/Silvestre (c) they didn’t feel like doing the paperwork.
Lopez should return to Hagerstown, but I hope he’ll blow through the Sally Lg. in 6-10 starts and get the bump before Memorial Day. If Giolito does go to Potomac, I suspect he’ll be “replaced” by Lopez — maybe not immediately (it’s rare that you can paint the picture that neatly). It would be a surprise to see either pitcher at three levels.
Interesting points.
It is also true that they vaulted Lopez three levels this year, as they did four levels Silvestre last year, by starting Lopez in Hagerstown and Silvestre in Potomac.
A couple of things to keep in mind. This is not the same team or organization and not the same organization philosophy as was when Zimmerman or Strasburg came into the organization. There is
a) eminently more depth and high quality at the ML level, and
b) a much higher quality next wave of starting pitching that is at the A+, AA, and AAA level. In the list above, I neglected to mention Solis. Certainly, there are bound to be injuries and flameouts between now and next spring, but right now, there are eight (ten if one counts Brian Dupra and Dakota Bacas) pitchers who are arguable candidates for the 2015 AA rotation.
c) The organization has promoted aggressively based only on acute need AND success. Simms was rushed to AA last year because Harrisburg was ridiculously depleted. He managed to hold his own despite what was anticipated as a temporary promotion. After taking awhile to promote Voth from A- despite his success (there was depth above him), the Nats promoted Voth when upward mobility from the two quality starters (Dupra and Simms) created the opening. Then, and only then. And when Voth tore up A+, he still was not promoted to AA until late in the year. The year before, Jordan was promoted from A+ and then, all the way from AA to ML because there was need and he was the best starting arm in the system, including Karns.
d) The organization HAS to develop a pipeline of lefty starters, which sprung an injury/non-performance leak last year. I cannot see a Harrisburg rotation without at least two left handed starters, and Voth has to be there, too. So you’re talking about (barring injury or trade), 1-2 spots for the rest of them. It’s a logjam, just as much as Renda-Lopez above him kept Difo in Hagerstown.
So to me, I think this spells Gio to A+ to start, depending on injuries/trades. As for Lopez, they promoted the Dominicans from the GCL Nats with varying degrees of success. But since Silvestre ended up being a front end starter on Potomac’s championship team at age 21, I can understand the logic of Lopez back at Hagerstown for a few more innings, but I am inclined to think he will be headed to Potomac as well. The idea of Giolito and Lopez and Potomac to start the year (along the holdovers from 2014 who do not make the jump yet to AA) is as exciting as, well, Giolito, Silvestre, Voth and Johansen at Hagerstown in 2013. With an outcome no one necessarily foresaw or was even surprised by – and all pitchers still healthy.
Unlike 2013-2014, the promotions from GCL to Hagerstown are harder to project, other than, say Luis Torres and Robbie Dickey. I suppose there will be clamor for Joan Baez, Travis Ott, and Jeffrey Rodriguez. Or the other college pitchers from Auburn (van Orden, Williams). But there will be a wave upward from Hagerstown to Potomac that carries Suero and Pivetta).
Here’s hoping that we get dispatches from the instructional league to give a sense of this, just as we did last year in the fall. At this time next year, of course, we will be hopefully speaking of Erik Fedde in the same manner.
I will write in cliff note form for those who do not have the decoder machine.
Yes, we can toss palm leaves @ some of the Latin arms coming up, but the Texas pipeline will make more than Jimmy the
regional Nats scout happy. Willliams and a Rice alum overlooked Chase McDowell.
I have been saying this for months. Harrisburg in `14 was just a alchemic mixture of unfortunate injutries and chemistry.
Santa Claus will definitely be bringing a sleigh full of good talent to City Isle in 2015.
The questions to be answered include: which infielders from 14Sens climb onto CuseChiefs or repeat sens despite
the bevvy full of infielders off the amazing pole to pole PotNats.
Time for Bryce34 to keep up his stellar play. amazing to think how much of a puppy he still is in bigs.
Go Nasty Nats.
Baseball America’s top 20 for the Carolina league is up – one Nat mentioned, Pedro Severino at #18. Good to see him starting to move from the Nats top 20 to league top 20’s, and getting some more love outside the Natsphere.
Annoyingly, they seem to have put all the chats behind their paywall now…..
Only one mention in passing while comparing another catcher… and the “scouting report” was even more underwhelming — four grafs, two of which were quotes by Tripp Keister, who’s not going to give you the “yeah, but” that we’d want to see. Lacy Lusk did both the chat and the Top 20 story and let’s just say he’s no JJ Cooper.