As I feared when I first heard his book would be delayed, the arrival of John Sickels’s Prospect Book has been buried with the season in full swing, the Potomac homestand, and the recent flurry of player moves. The rain has already slowed things down, the P-Nats are on the road, but aside from a few points in the year, predicting when transactions will occur is next-to-impossible.
In other words, this is my chance and I’m taking it!
For the third straight year, I’ll do two posts, starting with this one for the pitchers.
For the first time in a few years, the Nats have more pitchers (18) ranked than position players (15), which I think can be attributed to the natural ebb and flow as well as trades. I think some folks will be more concerned about the number of ranked prospects falling from 39 to 33, but whenever I look back at previous editions of Sickels’s book, it’s usually been in that range.
Sickels has the following guiding principles when it comes to pitchers…
…AA is the ultimate test for finesse pitchers, a.k.a. the
…K/BB ratio is a strong bellwether
…K/IP ratio can indicate “stuff” but not necessarily velocity
…H/IP ratio is a good complement to K/IP, but should be taken with a grain of salt given the variances in defense [and scorekeeping]
…HR rate — all things being equal, young pitchers that don’t give a lot of HRs are better than those that do
In some circles, there’s an acronym known as TINSTAAPP, which stands for There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect, which you’ll still hear every now and then (Jonah Keri includes it in this longform piece for Grantland in 2012 in which former National Edwin Jackson is the story peg). My personal belief is that it’s fallen out of favor because of the work of John Sickels and other baseball writers who have shown that TINSTAAP is a too-convenient excuse for “baseball men” to hide behind poor decisions (drafting or usage).
Without further ado, here’s a look at the 18 pitchers (2013 grade, if available, in parentheses):
|Lucas Giolito – A- (B)||Dakota Bacus – C (C)||Nick Pivetta – C|
|A.J. Cole – B+ (B)||Robert Benincasa – C (C)||Matt Purke – C (C+)|
|Felipe Rivero – B- (B-)||Christian Garcia – C (B-)
||Jefry Rodriguez – C|
|Aaron Barrett – C+ (C)||Neil Holland – C (C)
||Blake Schwartz – C
|Jake Johansen – C+||Richie Mirowski – C
||Blake Treinen – C|
|Sammy Solis – C+ (B-)||B. Mooneyham – C (C+)
||Austin Voth – C|
Names in bold are in Sickels’s book but not Baseball America. Not much of a shock that there are so few, given the 33 in one book vs. 30 in other. Now, for some tidbits…
…Giolito was ranked #12, Cole #33 in his Top 50 Pitching Prospects List.
…Sickels moved Cole up from a B and now puts his ceiling as a No. 3 starter
…Holland’s lack of plus velocity shouldn’t impede him from possibly becoming a ROOGY at the MLB level
…Add Sickels to the “haters” who think Johansen may eventually become a reliever
…Likewise for Solis and Mooneyham
…Purke is the analog to Giolito in terms of drafting and rehabbing a hurt pitcher
…Voth is one of three “SLEEPER ALERT!!” Nationals in 2014 which is a tag applied to Blake Treinen a year ago.
Up Next: The Batters.