Tag Archives: Playoff Chances

Sunday Afternoon in Woodbridge

  By Luke Erickson | August 22, 2010 - 7:10 pm | ,
3 Comments

The Winston-Salem Dash reasserted themselves as the class of the Carolina league with a 9-8 victory (and a series win) over Potomac today. But with a four-run eighth and the tying run being cut down at the plate in the ninth to end the game, Potomac let it be known that this may not be the last time these two teams meet in 2010.

The allure of a rehabbing pitcher is a great marketing tool to draw casual fans to a minor-league, but regular readers of this space already know that rehab starts are overrated. This Sunday was no exception.

Despite the threat of rain, Yunesky Maya took the mound in Potomac and looked every bit the pitcher who hadn’t faced experienced professional hitters in more than a year. And make no mistake: This Winston-Salem team can hit. As a team, they’re averaging a line of .287/.351/.432 in a league where the median is .260/.330/.386

Maya’s command was spotty, but he got hitters out the first time through the lineup while fiddling with both his pitches (fastball, slider, curve) and his arm angle (overhand and three-quarters). At times his motion was fluid, but more often than not, he was slow and deliberate. The most impressive of his pitches was his curve, which he threw at two distinctly different speeds.

The second time through the lineup, the Dash took advantage of Maya’s rust as the first six batters reached base in the fourth inning before he retired the No.9 hitter by strikeout, as the Dash scored five runs on five hits and two walks during the inning. The fifth inning wasn’t any better, as the cleanup hitter smacked a long solo HR to right field and the second batter walked before he was lifted with no outs by manager Gary Cathcart.

Maya’s final line: four-plus innings, six runs (all earned) on seven hits, with three walks and four strikeouts.

Put in a 6-1 hole by a rehabbing pitcher, the Potomac offense did not, however, roll over. They would mimic their opponents in the sixth with a walk and four singles sandwiched around a strikeout by Jose Lozada, who smacked a would-coulda-grand slam for a very loud strike one, to cut the lead to 6-3.

Winston-Salem answered right back with three runs in the seventh to go back up 9-3. Like a punch-drunk boxer, the response would come late, in the bottom of the eighth. With one out, Lozada doubled, Jerome Walton singled to score him for a 9-4 tally, then Francisco Soriano walked to load the bases for Chris Curran.

Curran blistered a ball down the first base line that the first baseman was unable to handle — a questionable ruling as an error — but a play that sent home both Walton and Soriano to narrow the gap to 9-6. Sean Nicol’s infield single off Dash closer Tyson Corley would complete the four-run rally, Winston-Salem 9, Potomac 7 after eight full innings.

In the bottom of the ninth, Potomac would rally once again with one out. Sean Rooney doubled to left, Lozada singled to move him to third, and Walton singled to score Rooney. Soriano would fly to right, Lozada tagging to take third. A wild pitch sent Lozada scampering home for the possible game-tying run, but the catcher got a strong rebound and gunned it to Corley for the tag, the third out, and a 9-8 final in favor of the Dash.

The loss, combined with a Wilmington win in Lynchburg, reduces the Potomac lead back to 1½ games as the Blue Rocks come to town tomorrow for a three-game showdown. Trevor Holder is set to take the hill against Aaron Crow, the Washington Nationals No. 9 draft choice that went unsigned in 2008.

Nats Affiliates Playoff Chances, Redux

  By Luke Erickson | August 18, 2010 - 1:14 pm |
2 Comments

Early last week, we looked at the playoff chances for the seven Nationals affiliates. The underlying tone was who and when for promotions that would qualify players for the Arizona Fall League, an exercise that has taken on greater meaning with a front office that promotes deliberately and carefully. Just how (much more) would the Potomac roster be gutted altered to meet this goal was the primary question; who would be backfilled from Hagerstown would be the secondary question.

On Monday afternoon, Michael Burgess got the call providing part of the primary answer. On Monday night, a scan of the Potomac box score provided a little more… Derek Norris and Tyler Moore were staying put. Last night, the secondary answer came when minor-league free agent Jamar Walton was assigned to Potomac and played right field in the second game of a doubleheader. Like a middle child, Potomac would have to achieve without advantage or favor.

Now that the other shoe has dropped, here’s a quick revisit of where the affiliates stand as we enter the home stretch…

SYRACUSE
Trailing Louisville for the wild card by 4frac12; games going into last night’s game, the Chiefs needed to sweep to have much of a chance of making a run. They lost. Most of the drama will be who gets the callup in September.

HARRISBURG
The infusion of Mike Burgess and Steve Lombardozzi can only help one of the system’s more lackluster offenses, but the trend of falling behind early continues to put more pressure on the bullpen, as witnessed last night. Still only out by two games, but no games remain against the team they’re trying to catch (Bowie) and there’s still seven games against Eastern Division powerhouses Trenton and New Hampshire.

POTOMAC
While not the narc-at-biker-rally beatings of years past, Potomac still has trouble winning in Kinston and has seen its lead dwindle to one in the past two days, thanks to three straight losses by one or two runs. They return home this weekend to play playoff-bound Winston-Salem, then Wilmington next week for three games. After that first-vs.-second showdown, the P-Nats take the road for eight games: three against first-half-winner Frederick and five against division-leading Salem. Meanwhile, after its series with Potomac, Wilmington goes to last-place Lynchburg for three then plays out the string with seven straight at home against Myrtle Beach and Frederick. It will basically come down to who’s the hotter team over the last 11 days of the season.

HAGERSTOWN
Three straight wins have pulled the Suns out of the cellar, but with an elimination number of just 10 with ~19 games left, the team needs to go 13-6 just to finish .500 overall for the year.

VERMONT
The Lake Monsters lead the division by one game, but have been playing below .500 ball for nearly six weeks. There’s still a series left against the second-place Connecticut Tigers, but no games left against third-place Tri-City, who could potentially pass both teams in the standings. Still time left, but pitching, which was a strength early on, has become a weakness.

GCL & DSL NATIONALS
Both teams have been eliminated. The DSL Nationals can still finish above .500 but the GCL Nationals are playing out the string and whatever pride they may perceive in not finishing last in their division.

Nats Affiliates Playoff Chances

  By Luke Erickson | August 9, 2010 - 12:44 pm |
2 Comments

While development is the key goal of the minors, real fans (or at least the season-ticket holders) do like to see some playoff baseball. For the first time in recent memory, there are more than one or two Nationals affiliates that could actually make the playoffs. This, we believe, is a nice byproduct of GM Mike Rizzo’s tendency to promote slowly and methodically versus the previous regime’s “pluck ‘em and who cares if it [fouls] ‘em” mindset behavior that ruined more than a couple of prospects.

Here’s a look at their chances…

SYRACUSE
Five or six weeks ago, this team seemed like it might be a lock to make the playoffs, buoyed by some kid pitcher, Stras-something-or-other. Since then, they’ve been in a tailspin going from first place to third place and falling to nearly 10 games back. But with a wild card, and seven games left against the two teams they’re chasing for it (Louisville and Buffalo), it’s still possible, but not very probable.

HARRISBURG
Winning eight straight will bring any team back from the dead, and Harrisburg is no exception. Though Danny Espinosa has already been promoted to AAA, an infusion of prospects from Potomac is imminent with the Arizona Fall League promotion deadline coming next week, and with Brad Peacock already a Senator, it’s likely that most of these “AFL promotions” will be batters — a weak spot for the Senators. That’s the good news. The bad news is that they’ve got no games left against Altoona and Bowie, the two teams in front of them in the Western Division, eight games against the Eastern Division’s top two teams. The Senators are 1½ games behind Bowie for 2nd place.

POTOMAC
Full disclosure to any first-time reader: I’m a season-ticket holder to Potomac. The rest of you know I’m no Pollyanna, so here goes… This team is coming off a seven-game road trip where they did what they had to do: make hay against the younger and weaker teams in Lynchburg and Myrtle Beach. They have to do the same this week against those same two teams to have a chance before (A) they lose their best players to the aforementioned AFL promotions (B) Wilmington comes to town on August 23-25. As of this writing, Potomac leads Wilmington by 1½ games. If they can extend that lead to three or four games by the time the Blue Rocks visit, they’ll have a decent chance before a much, much harder road trip — three against Frederick, five against Salem, which has the best overall record in the Carolina League.

HAGERSTOWN
Mathematically alive, but at 9½ games back with 27 games to go, it’s not happening. Most of the drama will be who gets the call to backfill the promotions from Potomac to Harrisburg.

VERMONT
The Lake Monsters began their schedule with a bang, winning 15 of their first 20, but have since gone 12-17 over the past 29 games. Like Potomac, they only have one series left against the second-place team, Connecticut. Like Harrisburg, they still have six games against one of the league’s powerhouses. Offense does not seem to be the problem, but pitching does. Three starters (Swyneburg, Jordan, McKenzie) posted ERAs of 6.55 or worse in July, so the adjustments they make over the next three starts or so will determine both whether or not Vermont makes the playoffs, and how deep they’ll go.

GCL NATIONALS
At 15-24, the GCL Nationals are 10 games back with three weeks left to play. Their elimination number is nine.

DSL NATIONALS
The DSL Nationals should be eliminated by the end of the week, but this is mostly a function that only six teams out of 34 make the cut. The DSL Nationals have been hovering near .500 for most of the year.