Sunday’s News & Notes

Team Yesterday Today Probable Pitchers
Syracuse Lost, 5-4 vs. Indianapolis,
1:05 p.m.
Long (4-4, 3.84) vs.
Hutchison (7-8, 3.74)
Harrisburg Lost, 6-4 vs. Trenton,
1:30 p.m.
T. Hill (4-4, 5.96) vs.
Carter (2-0, 3.18)
Potomac Won, 8-7 vs. Winston-Salem,
1:05 p.m.
Baez (2-8, 4.31) vs.
Valerio (3-4, 5.53)
Hagerstown Lost, 6-3 vs. Kannapolis,
2:05 p.m.
B. Hill (0-1, 6.43) vs.
Cease (0-6, 4.74)
Auburn Won, 7-5 vs. State College,
2:05 p.m.
Crowe (0-0, 3.12) vs.
Summerville (3-0, 1.73)
GCL Nationals Won, 4-0 OFF DAY

Indianapolis 5 Syracuse 4
• Cole 4IP, 7H, 4R, 4ER, 4BB (2IBB), 8K, HR, HBP
• Valdez 3IP, 1H, 0R, BB, 4K
• Skole 0-3, R, BB

Syracuse took a 4-0 lead and didn’t hold it while allowing five unanswered runs to lose, 5-4 to Indianapolis. Chiefs pitchers combined for 14 strikeouts in the loss, led by starter A.J. Cole, who needed 84 pitches to complete four innings.

Trenton 6 Harrisburg 4
• Voth (L, 3-2) 6+ IP, 6H, 4R, 3ER, 3BB, 2K, HR
• Ward 2-4, R, 2B
• Robles 2-5, 2R, 2B, SB, E(3)

The Senators early 2-0 lead was, um, struck down by the Thunder with a four-run 7th as Trenton defeated Harrisburg, 6-4. Austin Voth, who had a shutout through six, was unable to retire the first four batters of the 7th, all of whom scored. He gave up six hits, walked three, and struck out two while losing his second AA game. Drew Ward singled, doubled, and scored a run while Victor Robles went 2-for-5 with a double, a stolen base, and two runs scored to pace the Sens’ offense.

Potomac 8 Winston-Salem 7
• Sharp 5IP, 10H, 7R, 6ER, BB, 6K, HR (officially)
• Sharp 5IP, 8H, 7R, 3ER, BB, 6K, HR (actually)
• Orlan (W, 2-0) 2IP, 1H, 0R, BB, K
• Johnson 4-5, 2R, 2B, 2K, SB
• Wiseman 3-5, 2B, RBI
• Davidson 2-4, R

It was ugly, uneven, and sloppy. But enough about the official scorekeeping. Potomac overcame numerous misplays on defense and a 44-minute rain delay to walk off Winston-Salem in the 9th, 8-7. Sterling Sharp was charged with seven runs over five innings while walking one and striking out six, but got the no-decision. Tommy Peterson and R.C. Orlan both put up two goose eggs in relief, with Orlan getting the win. Daniel Johnson led the Potomac hit column with a 4-for-5 night while Austin Davidson’s second single tied it and Rhett Wiseman’s third won it. Both hits came with two out.

Kannapolis 6 Hagerstown 3
• Braymer (L, 1-2) 5IP, 6H, 3R, 3ER, BB, 8K, HR, HBP
• Barnett 3IP, 1H, 0R, 0BB, 5K
• Banks 3-4, R
• Franco 2-3, 2-2B, BB, RBI

Rain stopped play for 104 minutes in a 6-3 Intimidators win over the Suns. Ben Braymer was lapped three times on six hits and a walk over five innings to lose for the second time at Low-A. Jake Barnett threw three scoreless after play resumed in the bottom of the 6th (and Kannapolis leading 6-1), but the offense couldn’t muster the five runs needed to tie. Nick Banks singled three times while Anderson Franco doubled twice and walks to lead the Suns’ offense.

Auburn 7 State College 5
• Romero 2⅔ IP, 6H, 4R, 4ER, BB, 4K, WP
• Smith (W, 2-3) 4IP, 6H, R, ER, 0BB, 5K
• Choruby 2-3, 2R, BB, CS
• Guibor 2-4, R, RBI
• Shepard 0-1, R, 3BB, SB

Auburn got biblical on State College in the big inning – the 4th – as they scored six times to turn a 5-1 deficit into the eventual, 7-5 outcome. Seth Romero got lit up for four runs on six hits and a walk over just two and 2/3rds innings. David Smith settled things down with four innings of one-run relief, which earned him his second win. The Doubledays squeezed seven runs out of nine hits, led by Nick Choruby and Austin Guibor (two apiece), and four walks (three by Chance Shepard).

GCL Nationals 4 GCL Astros 0
• Galindez (W, 2-2) 5IP, 0H, 0R, 2BB, 5K, HBP
• Chu (H, 2) 2IP, 2H, 0R, 0BB, 4K
• Antuna 2-3, 2B, BB, 2E
• Cramer 2-4, RBI, 2E

The first-place G-Nats opened a 3½ game lead on the second-place G-Astros with a 4-0 shutout. Nelson Galindez no-hit the G-Astros for five innings, though he walked two, hit a batter and struck out five while winning his second game. Gilberto Chu lost the no-no with a single with two outs in the 7th but preserved the shutout. Yasel Antuna and Jack Cramer both had two hits and two errors as the G-Nats collected ten of the former and committed six of the latter.

DSL Update
The D-Nats wear rained out once, lost three times, and won twice, including a 10-6 decision to pull ahead of the D-Yankees by percentage points in the DSL South. They’ll finish up the 2017 season with two each against the D-Mets, D-Phillies Red, and the D-Cards, with an outside chance of finishing as high as fourth place in the eight-team division.

Playoff Update
GCL – The G-Nats lead by 3½ with 11 games left to play. Unlike the others below, they control their destiny entirely because all their games are against teams from the GCL East.

Low-A – As usual, the Sally Lg. North is a hot mess with four teams within two games of each other and roughly 15 games to go. The Suns, who are currently two games off the pace, only play one of those four teams (the Power), but the rest of the slate is filled with also-rans. All four teams currently have a winning record.

High-A – Believe it or not, the fourth-place P-Nats have crept to within two games of the second-place Red Sox, thanks to winning three of four vs. Salem this past week and first-place (and first-half winner) Lynchburg also beating Salem by one run last night and Friday night.

After an off day tomorrow, the P-Nats will play the Red Sox in Salem three times this week, then return to Woodbridge to play five against the Keys (currently tied with Salem for second place), three on the road against the Hillcats, and four more against Frederick on Labor Day weekend.

The X factor? The last-place Blue Rocks, who are just a ½ game behind the P-Nats and play their final seven games at home. Unlike the Sally Lg., the four teams battling for the right to visit Lynchburg in the first round are at .500 or below.

Friday’s News & Notes

Team Yesterday Today Probable Pitchers
Syracuse Lost, 6-2 @ Lehigh Valley,
6:35 p.m.
Voth (1-7, 6.16) vs.
C. Ramos (4-1, 2.56)
Harrisburg Lost, 7-4 vs. Richmond,
7:00 p.m.
Estevez (AA debut) vs.
Johnson (4-3, 2.76)
Potomac Won, 4-2 @ Carolina,
7:00 p.m.
Skulina (1-0, 1.59) vs.
Ponce (5-5, 3.70)
Hagerstown Lost, 5-4;
Lost, 9-1
@ Lexington,
7:05 p.m.
C. Pena (3-3, 5.89) vs.
Gomez (2-7, 4.55)

Pawtucket 6 Syracuse 2
• Solis 1IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1K, HR
• O’Sullivan (L, 0-1) 4⅓ IP, 6H, 3R, 2ER, 2BB, 5K
• Robinson 2-4, 2-2B, RBI
• Snyder 1-2, R, HR, RBI, 2BB

The Chiefs got back under the horse with a 6-2 loss to Pawtucket. Sammy Solis gave up a leadoff HR in the 1st then gave way to the scheduled starter Sean O’Sullivan, who gave up three runs on six hits and two walks over four and a 1/3rd innings to get his first “L” of the season. Clint Robinson doubled twice while BrAAAAndon Snyder walked twice and homered as the Chiefs managed five hits total. Roster moves: RHP Trevor Gott optioned from Washington, LHP Matt Grace recalled to Washington, LHP Sammy Solis assigned from Washington for MLB rehab.

Akron 7 Harrisburg 4
• Crownover 5⅓ IP, 5H, 3R, 3ER, BB, 5K
• Lara (BS, 3; L, 0-2) ⅓ IP, 1H, 4R, 1ER, BB, K, HR, WP
• Keller 3-5
• Hernandez 3-5, R, 3B, RBI
• Read 2-4, R, HR, 2RBI

Harrisburg saw a 4-3 lead evaporate in the bottom of the eighth, “thanks” to two errors, a walk, and a homer as Akron took the series finale, 7-4. Matthew Crownover got his second no-decision in three starts as he allowed three runs on five hits and a walk over five and a 1/3rd innings. Braulio Lara blew his third save and took his second loss as he retired just one of four batters faced and gave up a walk and homer as the final four RubberDuck runs were charged to him. Alec Keller and Yadiel Hernandez both went 3-for-5 while Raudy Read singled and homered to lead the Sens’ 14-hit parade. Roster move: RHP Wirkin Estevez promoted from Potomac.

Potomac 4 Carolina 2
• Guilbeau (W, 1-0) 5IP, 6H, 0R, BB, 3K
• Schepel 2IP, 2H, 0R, BB, 3K
• Pena (S, 1) 2IP, H, R, ER, BB, 3K, HR
• Page 2-3
• Wiseman 3-4, 2-2B, BB, 2RBI
• Robles 1-1, R, RBI, HBP

The P-Nats scored single runs in the 1st and 2nd and two in the 5th as they took their sixth win in eight games, 4-2 over the Mudcats. Taylor Guilbeau got the start and the win as he tossed five scoreless innings with six hits and one walk allowed and three whiffs. Kyle Schepel laid two more goose eggs and Gilbert Mendez one before he lost the shutout and wobbled through a two-run 9th. Victor Robles was hit by a pitch and lifted after driving in the second Potomac run on a two-out single in the 2nd. His replacement, Matt Page, went 2-for-3 while Rhett Wiseman singled, walked, and doubled twice to lead the Potomac offense.

Kannapolis 5 Hagerstown 4 – GAME ONE
• Bourque 6IP, 9H, 4R, 4ER, 0BB, 8K, HR, 2WP
• Howell (L, 0-1) ⅓ IP, 2H, R, ER, BB, 0K, WP
• Neuse 1-2, R, BB, HR, 2RBI
• Corredor 1-3, R, HR, 2RBI

Kannapolis 9 Hagerstown 1 – GAME TWO
• Ramirez (L, 0-2) 4IP, 11H, 8R, 8ER, BB, K, HR
• Corredor 1-3, R, HR, RBI, 2K

Hagerstown came to Kannapolis in first place, up by a game and a half. They’re leaving in third place – effectively two games behind with three to play as the Intimidators ran them into the wall with another doubleheader sweep, 5-4 and 9-1.

In the opener, a 2-0 lead courtesy of a two-run HR by Aldrem Corredor in the 3rd was erased by a four-run 5th. Sheldon Neuse tied it with another two-run jack in the 6th, but Kannapolis made quick work of Jacob Howell in the bottom of the 7th with single, sacrifice, wild pitch, and another single to plate the gamewinner and secure the 5-4 win.

In the nightcap, an early 1-0 lead vanished with three in the 1st then five in the 3rd as the Intimidators completed the four-game sweep by a combined 28-7 margin with a 9-1 rout [Insert comparison to BOS-NYY Sept. 7-10, 1978 here].

Both the Grasshoppers and the BlueClaws also won last night, which means the Suns need a whole lot of help to win the division. If they sweep, they need two losses from Kannapolis and one loss from Greensboro (Hagerstown has the tiebreaker over Lakewood). If they take two of three, they need three losses from Kannapolis, two from Greensboro, and one from Lakewood.

The Suns’ tragic number is therefore two (2) — any combination of wins by Kannapolis and/or losses by Hagerstown equaling two will eliminate them from the first-half title race.

Monday’s News & Notes

Team Yesterday Today Probable Pitchers
Syracuse Lost, 5-3 @ Lehigh Valley,
7:05 p.m.
Cole (6-0, 3.26) vs.
Lincoln (6-10, 5.17)
Harrisburg Lost, 7-3 @ New Hampshire,
6:05 p.m.
Rivero (1-6, 5.18) vs.
Walters (2-1, 2.63)
Potomac Lost, 4-3;
Won, 12-1
vs. Frederick,
7:05 p.m.
Bacus (5-6, 4.47) vs.
Bridwell (5-10, 4.79)
Hagerstown Won, 7-2 OFF DAY N/A
Auburn Won, 8-0 vs. Jamestown,
5:05 p.m.
McDowell (1-2, 4.63) and
Reyes (0-1, 3.21) vs.
GCL Nationals OFF DAY @ GCL Marlins TBD and TBD

Lehigh Valley 5 Syracuse 3
• Poveda (L, 1-4) 4⅓ IP, 6H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 6K, HBP
• Mattheus 1⅔ IP, 2H, 0R, 0BB, K, 2-1 IR-S
• Kobernus 1-3, BB, 2SB
• Burriss 1-3, 2R, BB

Jason Marquis and his Lehigh Valley IronPigs exacted token revenge on the Washington Nationals by defeating their AAA Syracuse Chiefs 5-3 yesterday. Following a Nate Spears RBI triple, Marquis demonstrated his adeptness with the bat by singling him home for a 2-0 Iron Pigs lead. Syracuse came back to tie the game in the 4th when Emmanuel “Manny” Burriss scored on third baseman Brandon Laird’s 16th homer. Omar Poveda took the loss in the 4th, however, when Ryan Mattheus allowed inherited runner and red-hot prospect Mikael Franco to score on a two-out single past Burriss at shortstop. Russ Canzler’s 13th homer in the 7th off of Xavier Cedeno and Tyler Henson’s 8th homer off Manny Delcarmen in the 8th provided enough insurance for Lehigh Valley. Destin Hood’s RBI double in the 9th prevented Luis Garcia from a clean 9th during his 20th save. The Chiefs’ magic number to clinch the I.L. North remains stuck at six, thanks to a resurgent Bisons, who have won five straight, including the last two vs. the PawSox to take over 2nd place and the lead in the I.L. Wild Card race.

Trenton 7 Harrisburg 3
• Voth (L, 1-3) 1+ IP, 4H, 5R, 5ER, 3BB, 0K, HR
• Simmons 3IP, 0H, 0R, BB, 0K
• Ramsey 2-5, RBI
• Leonida 1-3, R, 2B, BB, RBI

Starter and loser Austin Voth did not record an out in the 2nd inning during the Trenton Thunder’s 7-3 victory over the Harrisburg Senators in the 2014 home finale at Metro Bank Park. Following a solo shot by Jake Cave in the top of the 1st against Voth, rumor has it that Ric Flair was seen angrily leaving the park when the Thunder struck Voth for two singles, a double, and two walks before manager Brian Daubach mercifully pulled the 22-y.o. Reliever Brian Dupra walked in two inherited runners and Voth was charged with all four runs and a 5-0 deficit. Following a Jake Cave RBI double in the 3rd, Harrisburg broke up the shutout with a Jason Martinson RBI single that scored Quincy Latimore. Rob Segedin homered off Dupra in the 4th before Harrisburg closed the gap a little bit with two 9th-inning runs on a triple by Oscar Tejeda, a double by Cole Leonida, and an RBI single from Caleb Ramsey off James Pazos in the 9th.
Roster moves: RHP John Simms, IF Cutter Dykstra placed on 7-Day DL; C Mitch Canham activated from 7-Day DL.

Frederick 4 Potomac 3 — GAME ONE
• Silvestre (L, 1-2) 1⅔ IP, 6H, 3R, 3ER, 0BB, K, HR
• Henke 3⅓ IP, 2H, R, ER, 0BB, 2K, 2-0 IR-S
• Renda 1-2, R, 3B, RBI
• McQuillan 1-3, R, HR, RBI

Potomac’s seven-game win streak went to the dogs with a 4-3 loss to Frederick in Game One. Hector Silvestre was knocked for five of the six hits he gave up in the Keys’s three-run 2nd. Travis Henke was called on in a hurry and stranded two more and kept the P-Nats in the game, giving up one run over three and a 1/3rd innings. The P-Nats bats were largely silent (four hits), aside from Mike McQuillan taking a shot at the clearing all three levels of signage with his sixth HR and Tony Renda tripling one in the right-center gap, scoring himself on a Steve Souza RBI groundout.

Potomac 12 Frederick 1 — GAME TWO
• Dickson (W, 5-8) 6IP, 0H, 0R, 5BB, 5K
• Walsh 1IP, 1H, R, ER, 0BB, 0K, HR
• S. Perez 2-3, 3R 2B, BB, 2RBI
• Wooten 2-3, R, 2B, BB 2RBI
• Miller 1-2, R, HR, 2BB, RBI

Ian Dickson no-hit the Keys for six innings while the offense scored in five of six innings to take the nightcap, 12-1. Dickson walked five and struck out five, which pushed his pitch count too high to go for the no-no. Jake Walsh lost the no-hitter and the shutout bid to the first batter he faced with a solo HR by Frederick’s Chih-Hsien Chiang. Keys promoters pitchers handed out ten free passes to enable the P-Nats to score a dozen runs on just nine hits, led by Stephen Perez and John Wooten, who both went 2-for-3 with a walk, a double, and two RBI. With wins by the Hillcats and Blue Rocks, the P-Nats magic number is now five and six, respectively over the next two teams in the C.L. North 2nd-Half title race (the Keys are down to four).

Hagerstown 7 Hickory 2
• R. Lopez (W, 4-1) 5⅔ IP, 3H, R, ER, BB, 4K, HR
• M. Rodriguez (SV, 2) 3IP, 1H, 0R, 0BB, 3K, 3-0 IR-S
• Difo 4-5, 2R, HR, 2RBI, 2SB
• C. Lopez 2-3, R, 2-2B, RBI
• W. Rodriguez 2-4, 2R, SB

The Suns took another 7-2 decision from the Crawdads, reducing their magic number to clinch a playoff spot to one, the division title to six. Reynaldo Lopez gave up an earned run for the first time since July 3rd with a HR surrendered to Zach Cone in the 2nd that tied the game at 1-1, then clamped down for just three hits and one walk total over five and 2/3rds innings for his fourth win. He struck out four. Hagerstown put up three in 5th, one in the 6th, and two in the 7th to go up 7-1. David Napoli, who imploded for six runs on Thursday, struggled again with run allowed on three hits and two walks over 1/3rd-plus innings. Manny Rodriguez worked out of a bases-loaded, one-out situation without further damage and finished the game for his second, three-inning save for the Suns. Wilmer Difo was one-man wrecking crew, going 4-for-5 with two runs scored, two runs driven in, and two bases stolen to lead the Hagerstown hit parade of 12 hits.

Auburn 8 Williamsport 0
• A. Williams (W, 3-3) 5IP, 5H, 0R, BB, 3K
• D. Williams 1⅓ IP, 0H, 0R, 0BB, 1K
• Medina 2-3, R, BB
• Davidson 2-4, 2R, 2-2B, RBI
• Page 2-4, R, 2B, 3B, 3RBI

Three Doubledays pitchers combined on a seven-hit shutout while the offense put up a seven-spot in the 3rd in an 8-0 win over the Crosscutters. Starter Austen Williams got his third win with five hits and a walk kept away from home plate over five innings with three whiffs. Connor Bach and Deion Williams combined for four scoreless innings of relief to complete the shutout bid. Willie Medina and Jose “Orange” Marmolejos both reached base three times to lead the ten-hit Auburn attack, which included a pair of two-run triples in the 3rd by Osvaldo Abreu and Matthew Page.

GCL Nationals — OFF DAY
An 0-6 week put the G-Nats five games under .500 with five games to play, which means the odds are pretty good they’ll turn in a losing season as well. It’s back and forth between Viera and Jupiter in the final week as they play the Marlins today and tomorrow, the Cards on Wednesday and Thursday.

Nats Affiliate Playoff Chances

Postgame CelebrationThe regular season is now less than a month away, which means it’s time for the annual assessment of seeing minor-league baseball past Labor Day [insert Philadelphia Phillies joke here].

Since this site took off in 2010, the Nats have had multiple affiliates make the playoffs in each season — two in 2010, three in 2011, two in 2012, four last summer. Barring multiple collapses, that streak should continue. With a lot of luck, they could match last season’s high-water mark.

Obviously, development is more important than winning, but as a season-ticket holder, I’m biased towards the latter but also because it’s just plain more fun to write about a pennant race (hence a post like this, natch).

Without further ado, here’s a look at the odds of postseason play from AAA to the DSL…

For years, Syracuse was a collection of 4A replacement-level players so it’s confusing to see multiple players under the age of 25. But perhaps more unusual is that the team is winning and clicking on all cylinders. Unfortunately, they’re in a three-way fight with Pawtucket and Rochester and the schedule does not favor them. The Chiefs have eight games left against the RedWings, but just two against the PawSox, who also only have two against Rochester and an August schedule of also-rans. Meanwhile, Syracuse and Rochester play each other six times. Yes, there’s still the possibility of the wild card but we could very well see one of those three teams finish with a better record than the Southern or Western Division teams… and miss the playoffs.

The Senators are battling to not finish with the worst record in the Eastern League, and trail the Fightins by a game and a half to avoid that dishonor.

The P-Nats are already in the playoffs, having won the first-half title for the Northern Division. With the first round a meager best-of-three, they still have the incentive to win the second half and get home-field advantage for all three games (currently, they will be home for the second and third game, if necessary; as first-half champs they had the choice of first game at home or hosting a deciding game). They have a three-game lead over both the Hillcats and Blue Rocks with four games left against each. Should they advance, the Mills Cup begins at the Southern Division series winner and finishes at the Northern Division, as is League custom in even-numbered seasons.

While some folks called it an epic choke, the reality is that the Grasshoppers pulled off a fantastic comeback to win the first half Northern Division title by finishing with 10 straight wins — the first three against the Suns. Hagerstown took three of four in late June but the two teams have been more or less even ever since. The Suns can get to the playoffs by either winning the 2nd half or by finishing ahead of the Intimidators Crawdads for the second-best best overall record (currently, it’s a 5½ game lead) in the Northern Division if Greensboro takes both halves. Hagerstown hosts Kannapolis tomorrow through Sunday. The Suns host the Grasshoppers for three games August 19-21, then visit Hickory the 22nd through the 24th. Like Potomac, should Hagerstown advance to the Finals, they’ll travel to the Southern Division Series winner for Games One and Two, then host Game Three, and if necessary, Games Four and Five.

Trailing State College by 8½ games, Auburn’s only realistic chance is to sneak in via the wild card. The good news is that they’ve beaten three of the four teams ahead of them in the wild-card race (Connecticut, Brooklyn, and Staten Island). The bad news: they have no more games against them. The fourth, Williamsport, they play just three times more at Falcon Park (Aug. 22-24). With a record of just 23-27, it would seem doubtful that they’d go far in the postseason, but with two short (best-of-three) series, anything is possible.

Unlike Auburn, the G-Nats do have a winning record… albeit against the. same. three. teams. But if they somehow manage to knock off the GCL East-leading G-Cards down the stretch, it’s only a one-game playoff to make it to the Finals, which are a mere best of the three.

With 36 teams in five wildly uneven divisions (ten, ten, six, six, and four), the D-Nats are riding an eight-game win streak but are still 3½ games out of the hunt for the wildcard, eight for the division despite a .589 winning percentage. As noted a couple of years ago, there’s very little parity in this league — nine teams are playing .600+ ball, six are below .400.

Last Night In Woodbridge

Rained-Out-2012The second ten-game win streak for Potomac came to an end with a rain-shortened 3-1 loss in five innings to Winston-Salem.

Starter Paul Demny took the loss for the second time in six starts since his demotion from Harrisburg. He gave up all three runs (two earned) on four hits, three of which went for extra-bases. The difference came in the two-run fourth as Kevan Smith took the 24-y.o. Texan deep with a solo shot to right-center with one out while Joshua Richmond connected for the second double of the game with two outs to build a 3-0 lead.

Rain began to fall in the top of the 4th but a double play ended things quickly in the bottom of the 4th and Demny retired the side in order in the top of the 5th. Brandon Miller led off the bottom of the fifth with a triple and came in to score on a groundout to short. Cutter Dykstra struck out to end the inning, which also ended his 29-game on-base streak.

Play was halted after the 5th and the game called 92 minutes later.

The loss combined with Lynchburg’s eighth straight win keeps Potomac’s magic number at six to clinch the Carolina League North division again. Both Frederick and Wilmington have been eliminated from the second-half title race. The Hillcats lead the Keys by eight and the Blue Rocks by 10½ games in the overall standings that determine the second playoff team in the event of a double-half winner.

Potomac, however, still has good incentive to beat the Dash tonight and tomorrow, as Winston-Salem’s best chance of making the playoffs is to beat out Salem for the best overall record behind Myrtle Beach, if the Pelicans can win both halves (they lead the Red Sox by 1½ games after a 5-0 win last night). The P-Nats have won just once in six games at BB&T this year and would play the deciding games there in the event of both teams making the Mills Cup Finals.

Tonight, Brett Mooneyham makes his High-A debut after earning a promotion with a 8-2, 1.88 mark since the Sally League All-Star break. He’ll be opposed by Myles Jaye (7-6, 4.66) for Winston-Salem.

Nats Affiliate Playoff Chances

Admittedly, this is a week or two late — perhaps even unnecessary as the only drama is mostly how they’ll make it, not who — but with two weeks to go in the regular season, let’s take a look at the playoff chances for all seven affiliates anyways and continue the annual tradition.

For the fourth straight summer, the Nats will have multiple teams make the postseason. This is a far cry from the summer of 2009, when just three teams had winning records (G-Nats, P-Nats, Chiefs) and none made the playoffs. This year, five of seven should break the .500 mark, three are already in the postseason and a fourth is just a half-game out of first place.

Let’s take a look…

Unfortunately, 2009 was the last winning season for the Chiefs, which should come as no surprise to those in the know as AAA nowadays is more of a taxi squad than the last rung on the ladder. The pitching, to be kind, has been spotty. The offense has been too reliant on the long ball and drives to the mailbox (unwilling to walk). There’s still chance to finish at or above .500, but that will require an especially strong finish (11-3 or 12-2).

For fans of the big club, the narrative is awfully familiar. This team can pitch and prevent runs. They have real difficulty scoring on a consistent basis. They’ve been in or near 1st place since mid-June, but the gap between 2nd and 3rd is just two games. Guess who the Senators play seven times over the next two weeks? The third-place Richmond Flying Squirrels. There’s always hope that Jimmy Van Ostrand and Steve Souza Jr. can get healthy and return to the lineup, but even with them, the team has struggled. This is the pennant race to watch because it’s all-or-nothing, in-or-out.

This is perhaps the most complete Potomac team ever, with one rather notable exception — the bullpen. Over the course of season, as they’ve proven, it’s irritating but not fatal. In a short series, it can be devastating — especially in the first round, though it would take a near miracle to lose the second half with a magic number of eight with 14 to play. In the finals, Potomac wouldn’t have home-field advantage, which could be problematic as they’re much better at home vs. the road (45-19 vs. 32-28). That’s not presuming an upset in the first round isn’t possible, either.

The past couple of Suns teams could really hit, but they didn’t have the pitching to match. This year, they do. Like the P-Nats, they’re already in as the first-half winner. Unlike Potomac, Hagerstown is battling to win the second half (currently tied with West Virginia, their most likely opponent in the first round) but has proven it can win on the road (35-26) as well as at home (38-26). The Suns and Power don’t play each other the rest of the way, and the Suns have a much more favorable schedule (eight at home, seven on the road; .411 opp. W%) than the Power (four at home, eleven on the road; .495 opp. W%), but stranger things have happened.

After two 45+ win seasons in 2011 and 2012, the 2013 edition may not win 30 and could very well end up with the New York-Penn League’s worst record. Is this significant? Probably not. The previous two editions were older and drafted from higher rounds. Aside from a select few (e.g. Jake Johansen, Austin Voth, David Napoli), the pitching has been atrocious and the hitting has only been marginally better. They’ll be eliminated by week’s end. Most folks are interested to see if anyone gets the bump from the juggernaut in…

…Viera. They clinched a playoff berth 10 days ago, so the only drama is whether or not they’ll not set the record for the best winning percentage in GCL history (1994 Kansas City, 47-12). The playoffs are short — basically a one-game play-in between the top division winner versus the fourth-best, with #2 playing #3 and then a best-of-three between the two winners. Quick: Who won the 2012 GCL title? If you knew the answer without Googling, please wear sunscreen and make sure you’re getting enough vitamin D.

They were eliminated this weekend (just six of 35 teams make the playoffs), but as noted in this morning’s News & Notes, they have a chance to surpass last year’s 38-32 record and barring a collapse, will post a winning record for the second consecutive season. It’ll be discussed more in the season reviews, but that’s really, really not bad when you consider where the Nats’ Dominican operations were just four years ago.

Thursday’s News & Notes

Team Yesterday Today Probable Pitchers
Syracuse Won, 3-2;
Won, 7-5
@ Charlotte,
7:15 p.m.
Lannan (8-11, 4.58) vs.
Carroll (3-6, 5.15)
Harrisburg Lost, 3-2 @ Richmond,
7:05 p.m.
Broderick (2-0, 4.24) vs.
Fitzgerald (7-8, 3.20)
Potomac Lost, 6-2 @ Carolina,
7:15 p.m.
Gilliam (1-1, 4.66) vs.
Cooper (8-7, 3.83)
Hagerstown Lost, 4-0 @ Greensboro,
7:00 p.m.
Rauh (3-2, 3.93) vs.
Heaney (0-2, 5.79)
Auburn Won, 6-4 @ Mahoning Valley,
7:05 p.m.
Pineyro (3-1, 3.21)
Merritt (3-4, 4.02)

Syracuse 3 Charlotte 2 — GAME ONE
• Duke (W, 15-5) 5⅔ IP, 7H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 4K, HR
• Garcia (SV, 12) 1IP, 1H, 0R, 0BB, 0K
• Walters 2-2
• Teahen 2-3, R, RBI

The Chiefs broke a 0-0 tie with two in the 5th and tacked on one in the 6th to take the first game, 3-2. Starter Zach Duke won his 15th game with both Knights runs allowed on seven hits with no walks and four K’s. Christian Garcia worked the last of the 7th and kept Charlotte off the board for his 12th AAA save. Zach Walters and Mark Teahen combined for four of the eight Syracuse hits, which included Eury Perez extending his hit streak to 16 games while stealing his 20th base as a Chief.

Syracuse 7 Charlotte 5 — GAME TWO
• Maya 4IP, 6H, 4R, 4ER, 2BB, 5K
• Arnesen (W, 3-3) 1IP, 1H, 0R, 0BB, 0K
• MacDougal (SV, 2) 1IP, 0H, 0R, 0BB, K
• Brown 2-3, R, 3B, BB, RBI
• Valdez 2-4, 2R, 2B, HR, 2RBI

Syracuse scored seven times in the last three innings to overcome a 4-0 deficit and sweep the doubleheader with a 7-5 win. Starter Yunesky Maya got knocked around for four runs on six hits and two walks over four innings. Erik Arnesen got the win and Mike MacDougal the save as each tossed a scoreless inning in relief. The Chiefs racked up 11 hits, with Jesus Valdez homering and Mark Teahen driving in three. Eury Perez went 2-for-5 to push his streak to 17 games amd raise his average to .331 in 40 games with Syracuse.

Richmond 3 Harrisburg 2
• Perry 6IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 3BB, 6K
• McCoy (L, 7-3) ⅓ IP, 3H, R, ER, 0BB, 0K
• Tucker 2-3, R, BB
• Lozada 1-3, R

The sun rises in the east and sets in the west… and the Sens lose by one run. Might not be what you learned in school, but it sure seems that way as Harrisburg dropped a 3-2 ballgame in Richmond, losing by a single run for the 24th time in 2012. Pat McCoy took the loss by giving up a run on three hits in the 7th, a half-inning after Harrisburg tied the game at 2-2. Starter Ryan Perry gave up two runs on five hits and three walks while striking out six over six innings but got the no-decision. Jonny Tucker singled twice and walked once to lead the Harrisburg offense.

Carolina 6 Potomac 2
• Hill (L, 0-1) 6⅓ IP, 6H, 4R, 4ER, 0BB, 4K, HR
• Holland ⅔ IP, 1H, 0R, 0BB, 0K, 1-1 IR-S
• Sanchez 3-4, R, 2B, 2SB (24,25)
• Ramirez 1-3, R, 2B

A pair of two-run rallies by Carolina in the 7th and 8th innings was the difference as Potomac fell, 6-2. Taylor Hill fared much better in his second High-A start, pitching into the 7th inning but took the loss. He was charged with four runs on six hits but no walks and four strikeouts over six and a 1/3rd innings. Adrian Sanchez paced the P-Nats offense with two singles, a double, and two stolen bases. The loss combined with a Wilmington win lowered the tragic number to one, meaning the next Blue Rocks win or the next P-Nats loss will eliminate Potomac from the postseason for the first time since 2009.

Greensboro 4 Hagerstown 0
• Jordan (L, 3-3) 5IP, 7H, 4R, 4ER, 0BB, K, HR
• Kreis 1IP, 0H, 0R, 0BB, K
• Miller 1-2
• Montilla 1-3

Hagerstown’s six-game win streak was stopped cold with a 4-0 shutout in Greensboro. The Suns were held to just four hits and three walks, two of which were drawn by veteran 1B Brett Newsome, the sole Hagerstown batter to reach base twice. Taylor Jordan took the loss, giving up all four Grasshopper runs on seven hits over five innings, walking none and striking out one. The magic number to clinch remains at four as second-place Hickory won while third-place West Virginia lost.

Auburn 6 State College 4
• Hudgins 1⅔ IP, 4H, 3R, 2ER, 2BB, K
• Davis (W, 4-1) 3⅓ IP, 3H, R, ER, 0BB, 2K, 3-0 IR-S
• Henke (H, 5) 3IP, 2H, 0R, BB, 6K
• Self (SV, 12) 1IP, 1H, 0R, 0BB, 1K
• McQuillan 3-4, 2R, 2B, 2-3B, BB, 2RBI
• Miller 1-3, 2B, 2BB

If there’s a tragedy to the NYPL this season, it’s that a very good team is going to be on the outside looking in when the postseason starts. For now, that’s the Batavia Muckdogs, which won its fifth straight and 40th overall (.580 W%) but remains two games behind the Auburn Doubledays, which won its fourth straight with a 6-4 win over the State College Spikes. Will Hudgins struggled in his first SS-A start, giving up three runs (two earned) on four hits and two walks over an inning and a 1/3rd. Cody Davis stranded the bases loaded in the 2nd and went three more frames to get the win. Leadoff man Mike McQuillan only stopped at first the two times he drew walks, doubling once and tripling twice to pace the Auburn offense, which scored only six runs after 28 in the previous two games. The Doubledays magic number is now six with seven games to play. In the event that Batavia overtakes Auburn, the Doubledays would need to finish ahead of current wild-card leader Brooklyn (which has the same 42-27 mark) to earn the fourth playoff spot, as the Cyclones hold the head-to-head tiebreaker with a series sweep earlier this month. Roster moves: LHP Andrew Wall placed on the 7-Day DL (strained calf); RHP Robert Benincasa activated from the 7-Day DL.

Last Night In Woodbridge

After falling behind 7-3 after three and a half innings, the Potomac Nationals took advantage of four errors and four wild pitches to score the last five runs in a 9-8 win in extra innings.

The comeback began in the 8th, Potomac down 8-4, with a Stephen King double to the right-center gap that might have been a triple. Adrian Sanchez followed with a slow tapper to second that got past the first baseman for a hit and an error and the fifth Potomac run. After Sanchez got caught stealing, Ricky Hague blistered a ball to short that Carolina shortstop Ronny Rodriguez decided to backhand for the second error of the inning. Matt Skole ripped a single to right, which the the rightfielder booted for the third error of the inning and the second P-Nat run, as Hague scored all the way from first.

In the 9th, after hitting the leadoff batter (Steve Souza Jr.) then striking out the next two batters, a two out walk drawn by J.P. Ramirez set up King to deliver another double, with pinch-runner Francisco Soriano easily scoring from first to tie the game at 8-8.

The comeback was completed in the 10th as Skole lofted his second opposite-field double to left, took third on a groundout, and scampered home when Fabio Martinez hit the backstop — the one without the glove behind home plate — as the wild pitch thudded with a report loud enough to be heard over the roar of the crowd.

The improbable comeback masked what was an otherwise awful debut by Taylor Hill, who gave up seven runs on eight hits and two walks over three and 2/3rds innings, including three doubles and a long home run by Rodriguez. Three of the runs were unearned, with two errors by Skole and a couple of misplays by Souza in his fifth game as a centerfielder as a pro, but the balls were hit hard because they were up and/or over the plate.

Ryan Demmin, Adam Carr, and Neil Holland combined for six and a 1/3rd innings of one-run relief, with Demmin surrendering the run (a home run by Anthony Gallas), Carr dispatching the Mudcats on six pitches in the 7th, and Holland striking out five over the last three innings for his sixth “W” of the season.

The win keeps Potomac’s playoff hopes alive, as they trail first-place Wilmington by three and a 1/2 games, second-place Frederick by three games (Lynchburg is also ahead of them, but in the event of a double-half winner, it’s the second-place second-half team that gets the berth).

The series concludes tonight with Alex Meyer (2-2, 2.35) taking the hill against Carolina’s Michael Goodnight (2-12, 4.73).

Saturday’s News & Notes

Team Yesterday Today Probable Pitchers
Syracuse Lost, 6-0 @ Lehigh Valley,
7:05 p.m.
Duke (12-5, 3.81) vs.
Cochran (6-4, 4.58)
Harrisburg Lost, 5-0 vs. Binghamton,
7:00 p.m.
Rosenbaum (7-9, 3.79) vs.
A. Rodriguez (2-2, 3.14)
Potomac Lost, 6-0 vs. Winston-Salem,
6:35 p.m.
Grace (6-11, 5.93) vs.
Bassitt (3-2, 3.41)
Hagerstown Postponed @ Charleston,
3:05 & 7:05 p.m.
Hansen (2-4, 4.91) and
Jordan (0-2, 5.63) vs.
Gerritse (4-5, 3.89) and
Mitchell (7-9, 5.14)
Auburn Lost, 4-2 vs. Mahoning Valley,
7:05 p.m.
Mooneyham (1-1, 2.53)
vs. Lee (4-1, 2.30)
GCL Nationals Won, 2-1;
Won, 5-4
@ GCL Astros,
12:00 p.m.
DSL Nationals Lost, 3-2 vs. DSL Yankees1,
10:30 a.m.

Lehigh Valley 6 Syracuse 0
• Roark (L, 6-14) 6IP, 8H, 6R, 3ER, 0BB, K, HR
• Pena 2IP, 1H, 0R, BB, 2K
• Brown 2-4, 2B
• Negrych 1-4

The offensive outage for Friday night started at the top as the Syracuse Chiefs were held to three hits in a 6-0 shutout. Tanner Roark suffered his team-leading 14th loss, giving up all six runs (three earned) on eight hits, including a three-run HR in the 6th. Corey Brown and Jim Negrych were the only two Chiefs to hit safely, as Syracuse left on six runners total and hit into three double plays.

Binghamton 5 Harrisburg 0
• Perry (L, 1-3) 7⅓ IP, 6H, 4R, 4ER, 2BB, 2K
• Barthmaier 1⅔ IP, 2H, 1R, 0ER, 2BB, K, 1-1 IR-S
• Bloxom 1-3, 2B
• Goodwin 1-4

It was Star Wars night at Metro Bank Park, complete with folks dressed up as Jedi. However, they were not the only ones who weren’t going to score on Friday night as the Senators were held to just two hits in a 5-0 shutout. As Geoff Morrow pointed out on Twitter, Binghamton’s Mark Cohoon hadn’t had an outing with no runs allowed since April of 2011, a streak of 42 starts. Cohoon struck out 10 and walked one while going the distance. Justin Bloxom’s texas-league double to shallow CF in the 7th and Brian Goodwin’s line-drive single in the 9th were the two Harrisburg items in the “H” column. The loss was Harrisburg’s fifth straight, dropping the Senators to 6½ games behind Bowie. Jim Mora has the assessment of the odds of a third straight postseason appearance.

Winston-Salem 6 Potomac 0
• Ray (L, 4-9) 4IP, 6H, 6R, 4ER, BB, 5K, HR
• Demmin 3⅔ IP, H, R, ER, BB, K, HR
• Keyes 1-4, 2B

It was pretty much as bad as the box score looks Last Night In Woodbridge.

Hagerstown vs. Charleston — PPD
Rain washed out Game Three of the Suns-Riverdogs series on Friday night. It will be made up with a doubleheader today with first game at 3 p.m. and the second game at 7 p.m.

State College 4 Auburn 2
• Monar 4IP, 6H, 0R, BB, 6K
• Medina (L, 0-3) 3IP, 2H, 3R, 1ER, 0BB, 5K
• Renda 2-3, BB
• Marrero 1-3, R, HR, RBI

The six hits in Auburn matched the six hits tallied by Syracuse, Harrisburg, and Potomac combined. It was not, however, enough to get past State College, which got a game back in the Pinckney Division with a 4-2 win. Unlike the previous night, the Doubledays ‘pen faltered with four runs allowed over five innings. Silvio Medina took the loss, giving up three (one earned) over three innings on two hits. Starter Blake Monar scattered six hits over four innings, with no runs, no walks and six strikeouts. Tony Renda led the offense with a 2-for-3 night, while Chris Marrero homered and played six innings at first base.

GCL Nationals 2 GCL Astros 1 — GAME ONE
• Turnbull 1IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 0K
• Hudgins (W, 4-3) 6IP, 5H, 0R, BB, 7K
• Piwnica-Worms 1-3
• Lippincott 1-2, BB, RBI, SB

The opener was a pitchers’s duel that saw the G-Nats edge the G-Astros, 2-1. Kylin Turnbull gave up the lone Astro run in his rehab appearance on two hits, but Will Hudgins shut ’em down the rest of the way with six scoreless innings, allowing just five hits and one walk while striking out seven. Bryan Lippincott drove in the first G-Nat run with an RBI single in the 2nd while a walk, a stolen base, a groundout to second, and wild pitch plated the winning run in the 3rd.

GCL Nationals 5 GCL Astros 4 — GAME TWO
• Selsor 4IP, 4H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 4K, HR
• Peters (W, 1-0) 1IP, 0H, 0R, 2BB, K
• Foat 3-5, R, 2RBI
• Difo 2-4, 2R, BB

An error in the bottom of the 9th gave the G-Nats a 5-4 win in extra innings and a sweep of the doubleheader. John Peters got the win in relief with a scoreless 9th. Casey Selsor got the start and gave up two runs on four hits with no walks and four strikeouts. Matt Foat paced the offense with a 3-for-5 game, followed by Wilmer Difo’s 2-for-4 effort.

DSL Yankees1 3 DSL Nationals 2
• De La Cruz 3IP, 4H, 0R, 0BB, K
• Chavez 2IP, 3H, 0R, BB, 3K
• D. Ramos (BS, 1; L, 0-1) 1⅓ IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 0K
• Marmolejos-Diaz 3-3, 2B, BB, RBI
• Bautista 2-4, R, 2B, BB

The DSL Yankees1 rallied for three runs in the bottom of the ninth to take this one, 3-2. David Ramos got the blown-save-loss with all three runs allowed on four hits and two walks over an inning and a 1/3rd. “Orange” Marmolejos-Diaz reached base four times with two singles, a double, and a walk while driving in a run to pace the 10-hit D-Nats attack.

Nats Affiliates Playoff Chances

With roughly 2½ to 4 weeks to go in the regular season for the seven Nationals affiliates, it’s time for the annual assessment of playoff chances.

As noted in the comments, this time of year you’re just as likely to see folks proclaim that winning in the minors is overrated as you’ll see folks insist that it’s actually underrated. I can’t help but notice that it seems to be inversely proportional to the playoff chances of the writer’s favorite team or organization.

Obviously, player development is the most important objective of the farm system, even if I’m sure folks can come up with seemingly contradictory examples (*cough*, Carlos Alvarez, *cough*, Chien-Ming Wang, *cough*). As a prospect follower, I believe there is something to be said for playing an extra week or two of heightened competition. As a sportswriter, I love writing about the pennant chase. As a fan, I love playoff baseball.

For the third straight summer, we’re looking at multiple teams having a chance at postseason play. Without further ado, here’s a look at the odds for each affiliate…

Perhaps without the litany of injuries in Washington, the Chiefs might have had a chance at the playoffs with Corey Brown, Tyler Moore, and Bryce Harper in the lineup every day for another few weeks together. They’re still mathematically alive, as last September demonstrated that an 8½ game lead can vanish in a month. But with an elimination number of 21 with 28 games left, the odds are very slim. The Chiefs’ mission is keeping the potential call-ups healthy and ready for a September in DC.

A month ago, this team looked like a lock to make the playoffs, reeling off eight straight wins to begin July. They would then lose 10 of the next 11 and by month’s end fell from 1st place to 5th place in the E.L. West. They’re currently 4½ games out of wild-card contention and have eight (8) players on the DL, of which three (Chris Rahl, Jeff Kobernus, and Cameron Selik) are nearly certain not to return. Injuries and promotions (Eury Perez, Zach Walters) aside, the inability of the team to score in close ballgames and/or with runners in scoring position does not bode well for the team if it were to make it to the playoffs.

The good news is that they play their last 12 games against the two teams they’re chasing (Bowie, Richmond) but they have to make hay starting today against the Flying Squirrels. Ordinarily (see below), the talk would be about home-field advantage, but the Senators have played much better on the road (31-26) than at home (24-34) all season long. A similar showing in the six games against playoff contenders (Akron, Reading) in the next nine home games could make the last dozen overall merely an exercise in spoiling the hopes of their divisional foes.

Potomac is fortunate in that the Carolina League chooses to have two four-team divisions despite having a balanced schedule. What this means it’s that it’s possible for a team to make the playoffs with a losing record or an inferior record to the other second-place if the balance of power happens to be in concentrated in one division, as it is this season and largely has been the past few seasons. There are 13 home games and 14 road games left for Potomac, and nine games left against the two teams they’re trying to beat out for the wild card. There are no more games against first-half winner and first-place Lynchburg.

This is significant because the Carolina League has not only reverted to a best-of-three for the first round, but a double half winner gets to host all three potential games. The first-half winner gets the choice of whether to host Game One, with the other team hosting Game Two and the potential Game Three. That’s a strong incentive to not mail in the second half as a certain Baltimore affiliate has in recent years. Should the P-Nats rally to win the division, as it did in 2011, the Hillcats might do well to gamble on opening in Woodbridge and having at least two chances to win in Lynchburg.

Hagerstown has been in contention all season long and has been hitting all season long, but the pitching has been unreliable. Fourteen different pitchers have made two or more starts for the Suns. Two starters have been sent up to Potomac (Alex Meyer, Nathan Karns), along with the team’s All-Star closer (Aaron Barrett). The replacements have had mixed success, but if this team is going to make the postseason, it will have to what it has done all season long and outslug its mound mistakes.

The Suns have had the more traditional home-road split — 36-18 at the Muni, 30-30 on the road. Fourteen of its last 25 are at home, and 19 of those 25 games are against divisional opponents. Like Potomac, they have no more games against the current first-place team, West Virginia, and just three more against the team that they’re tied for second place with (Hickory). Unlike Potomac, they do have a chance to knock back the first-half winners (Greensboro), if they make a run at winning both halves, though they’ll have to do it on the road. Overall, things look good to get to the playoffs, but getting past the first round is far less certain.

The Doubledays have been in the driver’s seat for the Pinckney Division all season long. They hold a 3½ game lead over second-place State College and have a favorable schedule (15 of 29 at home) the rest of the way. The problem is that with both rounds being best-of-three, it doesn’t matter how well they’re playing now. It’s how well they’re playing a month from now. Say what you will about them being one of the oldest teams in the league, though the gap between them and the league average is probably smaller than you might think (21.8 vs. 21.1 for the bats, 21.7 vs. 21.3 for the arms).

A four-game win streak has brought them under 10 games behind in the GCL East and to seven back in the wild card race, but this team only gets to the postseason as spectators.

The D-Nats have been a slightly better than .500 team for most of the season with a team that’s at league average for pitcher age and below league average for hitters. Unfortunately, in the DSL there are half-a-dozen teams that are .556+ (a.k.a. a 90-win team) and roughly the same number that are sub-.383 (a.k.a. a 100-loss team).