Tuesday’s News & Notes
| Team | Yesterday | Today | Pitching Probables |
| Rochester | OFF DAY | @ Worcester, 6:45 p.m. | Adon (2-3, 5.18) vs. Walter (0-5, 6.75) |
| Harrisburg | OFF DAY | vs. New Hampshire, 6:30 p.m. | Ale. Hernandez (2-2, 4.80) vs. Robberse (0-4, 4.44) |
| Wilmington | OFF DAY | @ Greensboro, 6:30 p.m. | Bennett (A+ debut) vs. Solometo (2-3, 2.77) |
| Fredericksburg | OFF DAY | vs. Charleston, 7:05 p.m. | Cornelio (1-2, 5.34) vs. Martin (1-2, 3.96) |
| FCL Nationals | Lost, 6-4 | vs. FCL Astros, 12 p.m. | |
| DSL Nationals | Lost, 9-3 | @ DSL Mariners, 11 a.m. |
NOTE: Unless specified in Sunday’s game notes, probables are last Wednesday’s starters.
Rochester Red Wings, 26-29, 6th place I.L. East, 13 GB
After a 4-2 week, Rochester is now three games under .500 with roughly three weeks to go in the first half. This week, the Red Wings make the first of three trips to Worcester to play the (ugh) Woo Sox.
Harrisburg Senators, 26-24, 3rd place E.L. Southwest, 2½ GB
The Senators return home after a two-week road trip and are still withing striking distance of first place. This week, it’s six against the Northeast division’s third-place team (New Hampshire). Next week, it’s six against the division-leading Seawolves.
Wilmington Blue Rocks, 25-25, 4th place Sally Lg. North, 3½ GB
Wilmington is treading water after a 3-3 week, three and a 1/2 games off the pace. They remain in North Carolina for six this week in Greensboro.
Fredericksburg Nationals, 23-26, 4th place C.L. North, 6½ GB
The FredNats have gotten hot (11-1 since May 24) but it’s probably too little, too late as they do not play the top two teams in the division the rest of the year, never mind the first half, and have six and half games to make up. This week, Charleston visits Fredericksburg for six as the FredNats remain home for a second week.
FCL Cardinals 6 FCL Nationals 4
• Agostini 4IP, 6H, 3R, 2ER, 4BB, 2K, 2E
• Luios (L, 0-1) 2IP, 1H, 2R, 1ER, 2BB, 1K
• De La Cruz 0-0, R, 4BB, SB, 2E
• Mojica 2-4, 2R, 2B, 3B, RBI
The F-Nats couldn’t overcome four errors nor could they capitalize on their seven walks drawn as they dropped the season opener, 6-4. Gabriel Agostini got the start but was not sharp as he allowed three runs on six hits and four walks while striking out two. The loss went to Andy Luis who let in two runs in two innings as the first man out the ‘pen. Leadoff man Christopher De La Cruz drew four walks and stole a base while Misael Mojica doubled and tripled and scored two runs to pace the F-Nats offense, which left on 13 and went 1-for-14 with RISP.
Roster moves: RHP Tyler Dyson assigned from Wilmington for MiLB rehab; RHPs Niomar Gomez, Holden Powell assigned from Fredericksburg for MiLB Rehab; RHP Edward Urena placed on the 7-Day I.L.
DSL Phillies White 9 DSL Nationals 3
• Farias 2IP, 0H, 0R, 1BB, 2K
• Acevedo (L, 0-1) 1IP, 4H, 5R, 5ER, 2BB, 0K
• M. Moreno 2⅔ IP, 0H, 0R, 3BB, 2K
• C. Tavares 2-4, CS
• D. Tejeda 1-3, R, BB, SB
• E. Soto 1-3, R, BB
A five-run 4th by the D-Phillies White was the killshot en route to tripling up the D-Nats, 9-3. Victor Farias got the start and threw two scoreless, allowing a walk and striking out two. The loss went to Luis Acevedo, who gave up the aforementioned five runs on four hits and two walks while striking out nobody. Carlos Tavares led the D-Nats attack with two singles while Dashyll Tejeda and Elian Soto* both went 1-for-3 with a walk and a run scored.
* If you have to ask if he’s related… Hi, welcome to our site. Glad you found us. Now let me tell about some real estate I’m selling in Florida…
For those with access to the Athletic, here’s a good piece on Elian:
https://theathletic.com/4113001/2023/01/22/elian-soto-washington-nationals/
The bottom line is that the jury’s still out on whether he’s a legit prospect. The Nats are banking on family work ethic and continued physical development.
LHP Juan Reyes Dsl signed in January 60 day DL
Already TJ ?
As for the fella who signed for more than 20 times more than Soto and is indeed expected to be a big-time prospect, Vaquero went 1-3 in his stateside debut, with a walk, a strikeout, and a run driven in with a sac fly.
Hm interesting guy at 1b out of NY onDSL
Looking at Bats. We’ve been talking about Rutherford and Wood, and House is still going strong, and Millas is getting his footing at AAA. Older players are well represented here.
OPS (80 AB)
1. B. Rutherford HRB 1080
2. J. Wood WMT/HBG 968
3. P. Witt FBG 951
4. D. Millas HRB/ROC 929
5. B. House FBG 925
6. D. Hill ROC/WMT 913
7. J. Cluff HRB 905
8. M. Adams ROC 876
9. C. Lawson FBG 866
10. J. Dunn ROC/HRB 836
11. J. Young WMT 836
Setting at 70 AB would give M. Stehly FBG 962
Notables:
D. Baker ROC 807
C. Kieboom HRB/ROC 734
E. Green FBG 723
R. Hassell FBG/HRB 705
After an insane start, Lawson has fallen back to earth a bit, hitting .194/.375/.290 over his past 10 games. Capable of playing both 2B and SS, Viandel Pena’s mini-resurgence has blocked off one potential roster spot in Wilmington. However, Jordy Barley continues to underwhelm, hitting .234/.313/.342 this season, which is precisely .003 points below his career minor league OPS. Lawson is actually several months younger than Barley. However, Barley was a 7 figure bonus IFA (albeit way back in 2016), while Lawson was a 14th rounder. Still, I hope they see what they’ve got in Lawson sooner than later.
Trey Lipscomb was named South Atlantic League player of the week.
Last week he had 5 doubles, 1 home run, 7 RBI’s, 2 BB, and 7 runs scored.
curious that they activated Alfonso Hernandez on 5/26 yet he’s not seen any action
No Fonzi yet Fred Md
FanGraphs just dropped their Nats’ prospects list:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/washington-nationals-top-31-prospects-2023/
Thanks for the heads up. A good read.
This was the 1st confirmation I had read that Zach Brzykcy had TJ surgery in April.
Scratching my head
Troop to Developmental list
Short term paperwork move as Henry up to Harrisburg active status ?
and Doolittle
Can’t believe they had Baker at 9 and dropped Hassell and jdlr so much. Millas at 6? A lot of discrepancy between them and MLB pipeline.
Always a fantastic read. FG and Longenhagen are often the most thorough with these lists, whereas MLB.com and BP have the tendency to just recycle older lists (remember how Antuna featured highly as recently as 2022?)
With that said, there’s some pretty remarkable things here.
I’m way down on Elijah Green’s hit ability, but man… you should see FG’s rating. Green features 11th just in the Nats system, behind Lile. I must say I feel pretty vindicated by this comment: “But there’s virtually no precedent for a hitter striking out this much at this level and succeeding in the big leagues. Only a few current major league hitters have in-zone contact rates as low as Green does and none of them struck out anywhere near this much in the low minors, instead getting worse as they climbed and reached the big leagues where the best pitchers live.”
Is Longenhagen lurking here? 😉
Also very interesting is Hassell’s rather precipitous fall. He went from a high 50 FV to a pretty low 45 FV (41st to 112th overall, but I expect he’s dropped even further since the season began), as evidenced by the comment, “Things are more muted across the board right now and Hassell looks more like a fourth outfielder on a contender, a nice complementary player rather than a franchise cornerstone.” Oof. Interesting, though, is the revelation than Hassell had an unrelated wrist injury to the broken hamate bone in the AFL to start the season.
On the positive side, they’re high on Cole Henry (45 FV). Basically, his stats in his return aren’t an aberration. He’s back exactly where he left off pre-TOS. Also, Darren Baker and Daylen Lile (both 40+ FV) feature with good reviews.
A few surprises in how low they rated: Alu (mentions he was below avg/avg defensively, which contradicts the surprising reports of his elite defense) and Ferrer (35+ FV, he talks about his poor command, but before this season, Ferrer had elite walk rates…)
A few more interesting nuggets:
On House, “So far in 2023, House has rewarded that patience as he’s pulverizing Low-A pitching, generating a 160 wRC+ in his first 33 games back with Fredericksburg. Most impressively, his defense has been fantastic. Because he’s so big, House (who was a high school shortstop) was sometimes projected to right field because it’s rare for athletes his size to stay on the infield. But his ability to bend and move at his size is incredible, he has plus hands, he can throw on the run, and his feeds to the other bases are accurate and timely. He not only looks like a sure bet to stay at third but is potentially an impact defender there, which is especially impressive considering he’s coming off a season-altering back injury.”
On Millas, “His biggest asset on offense is his feel for the strike zone, though Millas can also do some low-ball damage against breaking balls that don’t quite finish. He has a hole at the top of the zone big enough that big league pitchers will feel comfortable approaching him up there. Millas would be a Top 100 prospect if not for that hole, small frame and all.”
Seems a little weird to root against a teenager less than a year after the kid is drafted. Can we wait to see how he progresses before patting ourselves on the back?
Also, literally every analysis of Elijah Green before, during and after the draft expressed concern about his ability to make enough consistent contact to take advantage of his other tools. So, let’s not act like it was some incredible insight to question whether strikeouts might be the kid’s kryptonite. Don’t understand why some are so eager to root against Nat’s prospects so they go jock themselves as a super scout.
Here here!
If pointing out a major flaw in a player is rooting against them, then we might as well get rid of the comments section on this blog.
I sincerely hope Green can cut out the strikeouts and there’s still years for him to turn things around, but it’s also worth noting that this isn’t just a bad period for Green. There are warning signs, and then there are 45% strikeout rates…
If there is a silver lining… I cannot recall a player leading the team in both BB, K, and SB at the same time.
See: Taylor, Michael circa 2012
Jeremy de la Rosa has an outside chance of leading BB, K and SB for Wilmington this season if Jacob Young gets a promotion to Harrisburg.
It’s definitely a weird list. Longenhagen has some player-development details that are interesting and that you don’t see elsewhere. But man, he’s leaping to some massive hot-take conclusions.
Pilchard nails the most important point: that we should be rooting for all of these kids to make the most of their talents. I wasn’t a fan of the Green pick but am fully invested in seeing him reach his potential.
I do find it interesting that Longenhagen is almost over-eager to pan a few “name” folks but gave Vaquero a free pass. As noted, I sure hope he lives up to superstar potential, but he did nothing of note last season and is less than a year younger than Green.
Those objections noted, I welcome the positive words about House and Henry, both of whom have flown somewhat under the radar. Fingers crossed that they can stay healthy.
Hand and wrist injuries — fans who have followed the Nats over the past decade know that it took Werth and Trea a LONG time to fully regain power after such injuries. It’s way too early to jump to any conclusions about Hassell’s lack of power, particularly since he’s had two such injuries within the last year and also is still filling out. He’s currently holding his own at AA at age 21. At that age, Michael A. Taylor hit three homers. Two years later, he hit 24. Just sayin’.
Hassell will be fine
2021-2023:
Player A: 264 G, 23 HR, 64 SB, .281/.375/.421 with average/good CF defense
Player B: 301 G, 28 HR, 11 SB, .283/.379/.432 with good CF defense
Can you guess the players?
A is Hassell’s career minor league line.
B is Brandon Nimmo, who was worth 10.6 WAR
If Hassell is even partly as good as Nimmo, we have a fantastic player on our hands. Calling him a 4th OF is a bit silly.
Good $162M comp! Adam Eaton also comes to mind as a lesser but still-solid player, career 18.4 bWAR . . . and hit .320 in a certain World Series, with two homers.
Eaton is a good comp for a more pessimistic take on Hassell.
Eaton was a bad CF, but good in RF. If Hassell can’t stick at CF, he’d almost certainly be a plus RF like Eaton. That saps a good amount of his value, but still pegs him at around a 2-3 WAR player, which is much better than any 4th OF, and according to even FG’s own metrics worthy of a 50-55 FV (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-new-fangraphs-scouting-primer/). However, if you’re oblivious to the impact of hamate injuries on power production, then I could understand the worry about his power disappearing.