Monday’s News & Notes
| Team | Yesterday | Today | Probable Pitchers |
| Syracuse | Won, 5-4 | vs. Rochester, 6:35 p.m. |
Espino (0-2, 4.41) vs. Wheeler (0-0, 1.29) |
| Harrisburg | Won, 9-3 | vs. Hartford, 6:30 p.m. |
Mapes (3-1, 3.13) vs. Hernandez (2-1, 5.28) |
| Potomac | Cancelled | @ Lynchburg, | Estevez (0-1, 3.78) vs. Brady (2-1, 4.43) |
| Hagerstown | Postponed | vs. Rome, 12:05 p.m. |
J. Rodriguez (2-1, 2.33) and TBD vs. Fried (0-1, 3.50) and TBD |
Syracuse 5 Pawtucket 4 (10 inn.)
• Laffey 4IP, 5H, 3R, 1ER, 2BB, 2K
• Martin (W, 1-1) 1IP, 0H, 0R, 0BB, 2K
• Turner 3-4, 2R, 2B, BB, RBI, SB
• Ballou 2-4, 2B
• Sizemore 2-5, 2B
After falling behind 4-0 after four and a 1/2 innings, the Chiefs chipped away with single runs in five of the next six innings to walk off with a 5-4 win in extras and complete the four-game sweep of the PawSox. Aaron Laffey started and labored through four innings, giving up three runs on five hits and two walks while striking out two. The win went to Rafael Martin for pitching a perfect frame in the 10th. Trea Turner reached base four times with a walk, two singles, and a double while Scott Sizemore and Isaac Ballou both collected a single and a double as the trio acocunted for seven of the ten Syracuse hits.
Roster move: C Pedro Severino optioned from Washington. No corresponding move yet.
Harrisburg 9 Bowie 3
• Long (W, 1-0) 5IP, 4H, 1R, 0ER, 2BB, 3K
• N. Lee (H, 1) 1⅔ IP, 0H, 0R, 3BB, 5K, 2WP, 3-1 IR-S
• Bautista 3-5, 2R, 3B, SB
• Collier 3-5, 3R, 2B, HR, 3RBI
• Web 2-3, R, HR, BB, 4RBI
Harrisburg put up crooked numbers in two of their first three “ups” to jump to a 4-0 lead and tripled up Bowie, 9-3 to prevent the four-game sweep. Newcome Jaron Long got the win in his second outing, allowing an unearned run on four hits and two walks while striking out three. Bowie pulled within one in the 6th when Dakota Bacus let in one on two singles and an error and Nick Lee walked in the other before striking out five of the eight batters he faced (yes, he walked the other three) over an inning and 2/3rds. Zach Collier was a triple shy of the cycle as he went 3-for-5 with a double and a home run while driving in three. Brenden Webb also went deep and drove in four as the Senators pounded out 12 hits total.
Potomac vs. Wilmington – CNCLD
Take your pick of rain or wet grounds, Blue Rocks vs. P-Nats XV was canceled and won’t be made up because the two teams won’t meet again until the second half. Second-place Potomac travels to first-place Lynchburg for three before returning to the Pfitz on Thursday.
Hagerstown vs. Rome – PPD
Likewise, the rains in Western Maryland put the Rome-Hagerstown series on ice until today… weather permitting.
Good to see Trea back filling up the score sheet. Looks like Bautista did the same at AA. I’m still not sure how to value Bautista. I can’t shake the Eury Perez comp I have in my mind for him.
Couldn’t help noticing Chris Marrero on the Pawtucket roster, peddling away at .243 with only 2 HRs. Hard to believe that he’s only 27 (turns 28 this summer). It seems like he should be 35 by now!
Unfortunately, Eury Perez is exactly whom I think of with Bautista. Their minor league stats are eerily similar.
FWIW, Eury Perez is now in the Astros organization (his 4th since 2014: Nats, Yankees, Braves, Astros).
He is hitting .349, but amazingly has zero walks in 43 plate appearances.
Also kicking around the Pawtucket roster: Justin Maxwell, currently OPS’ing .672. He just turned 32 last November; I hadn’t realized that he’s basically a year older than Ryan Zimmerman.
And was selected only a couple rounds after Zimm in the same draft!
Maxwell would have been a great local story if he had been able to hit.
Bautista is weird.
Before this season, he was essentially a carbon copy of Perez. Low walk rate, extremely low power, relatively high strikeout rates for their profile (~15%), very fast.
But Bautista has suddenly turned into a walks machine. He’s walking almost 20% of the time. It’s exceptionally rare for a player to suddenly develop an eye at the plate, and before this year, Baustista struck out twice as often as he walked, but now he’s flipped that, and is walking twice as often as he strikes out.
But if he can even keep his BB% in the double digits, he could profile as an extremely useful player. In fact, I’d argue he’s a lot more like another former Nats farmhand – Billy Burns, who now has 160 games of effective (2.5 WAR) play in the majors.
Add Dusty’s well known preference for speed-first leadoff hitters, Bautista could find himself a place on the Nationals roster in the not too distant future.
Don’t forget Brian Goodwin’s 8th inning HR to get the Chiefs within one and set the table for Turner’s heroics. He still has a ways to go to prove himself, but it’s nice to see that he’s still on the path to redemption.
Correction: it was 9th inning, game tying HR by Goodwin! Well done, indeed.
A big +1 on that!
Considering how little hitting the Nats are getting out of their outfield, you have to hope that Goodwin gets a chance.
Bautista is a better player than Eury Perez. And the number of walks he has this year speak volumes in and of itself, as a matter of distinction. This is an ethnic comparison and no more, like comparing two black running backs. Bautista has more power and is the best athlete on a team that includes workout warrior Difo.
The real discussion will involve the ceiling of Bautista relative to Andrew Stevenson. Stevenson is the more dynamic defender, but Bautista may have more all around skills. That’s a contest not unlike the Turner-Difo due that began last year.
Before this season, Bautista had a career BB% of 6.88%.
Perez has a career BB% of 5.94%.
Career ISO
Bautista: .077
Perez: .081
K%
Bautista: 13.2%
Perez: 14.4%
SB Frequency
Bautista: 1 SB/1.9 games
Perez: 1 SB/2.6 games
Position:
Bautista: CF
Perez: CF
There’s a lot more similarities between them than just the color of their skin or nationality.
This point is not being raised “before this season.” It is being raised after Bautista, with good sample size, not only has sharply increased his walks coinciding with his developmental maturity, but leads the entire organization in walks. He has grown out of the Perez comparisons.
As for power, Bautista had improving power in 2014 and suffered a hand injury last year. I am not so sure that his power will not manifest.
Furthermore, fast though Perez is, Bautista has the aptitude and baseball smarts to steal more bases and at a higher SB percentage.
With that said, Eury Perez is hardly Corey Brown. He has played in the majors and will play again. A meaningful upgrade over Perez means a different comparison.The Billy Burns comparison is interesting. There may be others that come to mind.
89 plate appearances is not a good sample size.
If he can sustain the Joey Votto-like plate discipline over the course of a season, then we might be able to begin to entertain the idea that he has suddenly reinvented his approach at the plate. However, I strongly suspect this is the result of 4-5 games against pitchers struggling with their command.
For example, if you look at his season, 13 of his walks came in 5 games, while the 3 remaining came in the other 16 games. He’s not consistently taking walks, like someone like Marmolejos has, who actually has more BBs than Bautista.
I will happily eat my words if Bautista turns out to be the real deal, but I’m extremely skeptical that a player can suddenly increase his walks by 400% from one season to the next.
I’ll settle for a gentleman’s bet 😉
Hey gang ! Can we digress from guys who have
Dearly departed the org and psychoanalyze
How Nsts will run out TBD arms in Wrigley ??
Petit one day and maybe the chief with rest
Between Cole , Voth , the usual Vol 26 th guy
Or even AAron Laffey??
I am still in shock that Brendon Webb
Had a good spring plus advanced to harrisburg .
Perez is the better defender with a stronger arm.
Rafael Bautista got some mention on our site yesterday. He’s having a good offensive year as is Andrew Stevenson and Victor Robles at levels below him and Brian Goodwin at a level above him.
Where do you think everyone fits in?
No link, what website are you talking about? I honestly don’t know.
I’m never a fan of getting too excited over any guy that hasn’t gone around the league at least once. We’re still at the point of the season where one or two really good series can skew results.
As requested…
• Goodwin hasn’t had two good months in a row since 2012, so color me skeptical.
• Bautista has flirted with a .400 SLG% before (currently .384, hit .382 in 2014, .391 in 2013, .395 in 2012), so it’s hard to call it a power surge.
• Stevenson is living up to his reputation on offense and is showing real good patience; the defense hasn’t been as advertised so far, but the athleticism is so I’m hesitant to go to the “overrated” card — especially when the weather has been so bad.
• Robles is still just 18 years old. What’s the rush? I’ve liked what I’ve seen from him and what scouts have had to say. Besides, with all the CFs ahead of him playing well, where are they gonna put him?
Wow, who knew that it was possible to touch off such a fervent Bautista debate?! I guess it beats dissecting the ‘Skins seventh-round draft picks . . .
When the Nats drafted Stevenson, the comp I saw several places was Revere. Then the Nats went out and got the original article. He’s played the slap hitter/speed game about as well as anyone in recent years. But you’ve got to get on base to make it work. Otherwise, you’re Billy Hamilton. With a limited skill set, there’s little margin for error, and you had better be darn good at the things you can do.
We’ll see. I’m a Bautista skeptic, and I was a skeptic of drafting Stevenson. To be fair, I was also skeptical of Perez and of Billy Burns, although Burns had OBP,s >.400 going for him. I’m glad that both Bautista and Stevenson seem to be progressing, but if Robles develops any power to go with his other tools, the debate may be over before it gets going.
When will Robles get sent up?
Robles hit a homerun, in the 2nd game today…
KW, I really like Stevenson over either Bautista or Perez. Luke, you’ve seen him a few times this year, I imagine. What is your take on Stevenson? Is my optimism justified?
Bautista is a product of the 2013 GCL Nats. That was a pedigree of champions. It counts for something. I believe in the players from that group.
Goodwin had a very productive winter, like Adrian Sanchez, that carried over into this year.
Robles is a CF, but he has the arm for RF in a post-Harper world.
Stevenson deserves credit for the level of his performance in his first full pro year.
One other note, on Billy Burns. The guy is a winner. His teams win. That is an intangible. I believe Trea Turner has the same quality and will really be an important catalyst when he settles in at SS a month from now in DC.