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The BA Prospect Handbook, Part Two

After being reminded that I have a lousy copyeditor 😉 Here are Washington’s Nos. 16 through 31…

16. Drew Ward (8) 21. Rhett Wiseman 26. Phillips Valdez
17. Sammy Solis* (15) 22. Edwin Lora 27. Nick Lee (30)
18. Joan Baez 23. Raudy Read (22) 28. Taylor Hearn
19. Austen Williams 24. Juan Soto 29. Mariano Rivera III
20. Abel De Los Santos 25. Christopher Bostick 30. Koda Glover
* According to baseball-reference.com,
Solis has exhausted his rookie eligiblity		 31. Brian Goodwin (9)


For those wondering, Juan Soto, who turned 17 in October and signed for $1.5 million — $100K more than you-know-who — was the IFA referred to in yesterday afternoon’s post. BA is projecting him to start in the GCL and has high praise for his advanced skills as a hitter, projecting him as a corner OF due to below-average speed and average arm strength (yes I’m aware the link above has him as a 60 arm).

Nearly a third of the list is comprised of the past two drafts, and it’s fair to say that BA loved the 2015 draft with six picks in the Top 30. As we usually do, let’s break down the newcomers:

2015 Draft – Andrew Stevenson (8), Blake Perkins (12), Wiseman (21), Hearn (28), Rivera3, Glover

2014 Draft – Williams (19)

Trade – Trea Turner (2), De Los Santos (20), Bostick (25)

Int’l Free Agent – Anderson Franco (10), Osvaldo Abreu (15), Baez (18), Lora (22), Soto (24), Valdez (26)

Add in the trades and that makes 14 of the Top 30 acquired since 2014. That’s particularly impressive because the Nats have been drafting from the lower half since 2012.

Finally, here’s BA 2019 projected Washington lineup, which ignores such things as free agency, injuries, or sudden declines in skills. This time, I’m including BA’s 2016 picks and MLB’s current depth chart side-by-side for reference/comparison:

Pos. 2019 2016 (BA) 2016 (MLB)
C Wilson Ramos Wilson Ramos Wilson Ramos
1B Ryan Zimmerman Ryan Zimmerman Ryan Zimmerman
2B Wilmer Difo Danny Espinosa Dan Murphy
SS Trea Turner Ian Desmond Danny Espinosa
3B Anthony Rendon Anthony Rendon Anthony Rendon
LF Victor Robles Brian Goodwin Jayson Werth
CF Michael Taylor Denard Span Ben Revere
RF Bryce Harper Bryce Harper Bryce Harper
#1P Stephen Strasburg Stephen Strasburg Max Scherzer
#2P Lucas Giolito Lucas Giolito Stephen Strasburg
#3P Max Scherzer Gio Gonzalez Gio Gonzalez
#4P Joe Ross Jordan Zimmermann Tanner Roark
#5P Gio Gonzalez Ross Detwiler Joe Ross
#5P Reynaldo Lopez Drew Storen Jonathan Papelbon

17 Commments

  1. It seems surprising that Kieboom dropped out – he’d been getting positive press in other sources (KLaw, I think). Also, is it surprising to others that the Marmelade dude isn’t in the top 30? Plate discipline too poor to be a pro?

  2. Here’s hoping that the PTBNL in the Drew Storen trade is good enough to crack this Top 30 list with ease. The Nats won’t be drafting high for a couple of years, and so good trades will need to continue.

    +1/2St.

  3. Always interesting, these lists and, of course, controversial. Can’t understand why Read seems to always be on this list. He’s mediocre defensively and doesn’t really hit for much either. No love for Meija or Telmito or Schock. Anyway, it’s fun playing the game.

    1. I only saw Read briefly last year, but in that short time, I was able to get the impression that he can hit and he can throw but can’t “catch” (i.e. keep the ball in front of him to prevent wild pitches and passed balls). Even when you just look at the stats this should be obvious. He was charged with 22 passed balls by minor-league scorekeepers, which means he probably (easily) committed 30 or more. In 80 games, that’s horrific.

      1. Luke.
        Bet you a beer that Henley / Barrett/ Knorr
        Can teach Read to channel his sonic energy
        In body and mind .
        Teach the grasshopper !

  5. On paper the position players look not bad at all, especially in the outfield, and middle infield. With Rendon at third for a few more years, third base seems covered as well. First is a black hole but that’s one position and I like Mar–Diaz more than the pundits obviously do. There are two catchers in the top fifteen and another further down the line. But I’m not convinced any of them will be starting major league backstops.
    The pitching is interesting in that there are five in our top ten plus Ross who have a good chance of being major league starters–a couple of them are potentially aces. It’s the pitching further down the line that is scary. None of the rest in the top thirty inspire much confidence. Of course, having six potentially good to excellent pitchers in the upper levels is a pretty good safety net for Scherzer and Strasburg (if we sign him) over the next few years.

  6. Count me also as shocked that Kieboom & ‘Orange’ aren’t in the Top 30.
    Kieboom not only went to the Arizona Fall League but played well. He’s maybe not Top 10 at least Top 20.

    Here’s hoping that Goodwin takes off in 2016. Maybe I’m a polyanna but he still has the tools.

  7. If you break BA’s list into pitcher and batter like we did here, you get:

    Pitchers BA (NatsProspects rating):
    1. Giolito (1)
    2. Fedde (3)
    3. Lopez (2)
    4. Cole (5)
    5. Voth (4)
    6. Solis (HM)
    7. Baez (HM)
    8. Williams (6)
    9. De Los Santos (10)
    10. Valdez (HM)
    11. Lee (9)
    12. Hearn (HM)
    13. Rivera (HM)
    14. Glover (7)

    Unranked by BA: Simms @ 8

    Hitters BA (NP)
    1. Turner (1)
    2. Robles(2)
    3. Difo (3)
    4. Stevenson (5)
    5. Franco (4)
    6. Severino (7)
    7. Perkins (HM)
    8. Bautista (8)
    9. Reetz (HM)
    10. Abreu (9)
    11. Ward (HM)
    12. Wiseman (HM)
    13. Lora (NR)
    14. Read (NR)
    15. Soto (HR)
    16. Bostick (6)
    17. Goodwin (HM)

    Unranked by BA: Kieboom @ 9

    There’s very little difference at the top of these rankings, and the omissions by BA aren’t particularly egregious. It looks like they’re largely in agreement with the readers here.

    1. I did overlook Bostick, who was rated much more highly by us readers than BA. I think that can largely be espoused to us being a bit over-optimistic with Bostick’s relatively successful AFL performance still fresh in our minds. I think if you polled us again now, he’d likely drop a spot or two.

    2. Thanks for the backup and breakdown…

      Now for a couple comments on the omissions by BA

      If I were to tell you about an almost 25-y.o. catcher who’s yet to play in AA with mediocre defensive skills and was barely league average on offense in High-A, you’d say “Dude, how was Colorado?” That’s the objective reality of Spencer Kieboom. Yes, we know he was hurt, and he’s had Nationals elbow in the past that’s put him a year behind his draft class, but we have to look at what is and what the most likely best-case scenario is, and that’s MLB backup. I think BA was looking for him to dominate A+ and get a promotion to AA and he did neither.

      As for “Orange,” who’s to say why BA doesn’t like him despite good nos. and being only slightly older than his league for the past five seasons? This is where we get to remind people that it was Tyler Moore who made it to the Bigs and Chris Marrero who’s now on his third organization in two years since the Nats let him walk after the 2013 season. When someone who’s on our radar but not in the top 25 or 6 to 4 lists breaks through, there’s a certain degree of satisfaction, and I think it’s more than a top draft pick or highly touted IFA living up to the hype. (Unfortunately, that’s in large part because most our underdogs get flattened like Glass Joe in “Punchout.”)

      1. I agree about Kieboom.

        It’s funny that the biggest outliers on our list (Simms, Kieboom, Bostick) were all AFL players. I think we may have been temporarily “high” on them coming off better than average showings.

        1. Kieboom, at least, has gotten reasonably positive press from a few guys who mentioned that pitchers love throwing to him, suggesting better than mediocre defense, which combined with a ‘good enough’ bat, leads to a floor of back up catcher and maybe a 2d tier starter. Keith Law was one, and I am blanking on the other guy. I always had Kurt Suzuki as the model.

          So I agree with the comment above that he isn’t a top 10 guy, but that profile seems to at least make the top 30. But maybe the position suffers the way relievers do, which is the lists pick for upside rather than probability-weight for WAR production.

          I’ve never even seen him play, so he isn’t a personal favorite. I was just surprised to see him nowhere in the top 30, especially since I hadn’t even heard of some of the guys, like Edwin Lora.

  8. Hi folks, sorry for being out of the loop for a little while. When I look at the BA list and see Glover at 30 and Andrew Lee and Tyler Watson not on it at all, that tells me all I need to know. That’s just ridiculously off base. Those are three major-league-quality arms attached to substantial 6’5″+ bodies. Ignore them at your own peril, . . . particularly if you’re putting guy like Read on your list instead??!!??

    Oh well. The reason to cling to hope for Kieboom is that unlike Severino, he has been known to make occasional contact with a baseball. But the next wave of catchers who were supposed to be ready by the time Ramos hits free agency next offseason is not close to inspiring confidence yet.

    Is “Orange” a better baseball player than several of the guys on the list? Yes. Is he a better prospect? Well, right now he’s a 1B-only guy who has yet to show much more than gap power. Chris Marrero had more power (and played a full season at Syracuse at age 22, when Orange was in Hagerstown) and didn’t make it. Moore and Clint Robinson have HR seasons more than double what Orange has produced, and all it gets them is a good view from an MLB bench. So . . . Orange took some good steps last year and is a quality minor-league player. Sometimes quality minor-league players find an extra gear and make it to the show (Moore). Most of the time they don’t.

  9. KW — Good point on Watson

    As for catchers, for perspective it’s important to remember that about 25 farm systems are short on catching. That’s the way it’s been for quite awhile.
    Would love for Kieboom or Severino to make a big step up this year. The Nats need it.

  10. Flat out Hagerstown talent base is going to be fun
    To watch. Edwin Lora going to be an interesting
    All around kid @ SS amidst all the lefty / Switch
    Hit kids.
    Switching gears I hope all affiliates have
    Dog day afternoon games so I can bring my dog
    Who still is ticked @ Rizzo for not giving him
    A spring training invite cause he has better fly catch
    Skills than span.
    Plus Jeff Gardners mother is in love with him
    Lol

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