Tuesday’s News & Notes

35 Commments

1. Luke, thanks for being so faithful to the site and the updates throughout the season. For those of us with an interest in the Nats’ system, this is indispensable reading. There will be a hole in my mornings without the updates on the guys in Auburn, Hagerstown, Woodbridge, Harrisburg, and Syracuse.

   1. Seconded.

      Luke, thanks for surprising us all and keeping the daily updates going!

      I guess I’ll actually have to work now in the mornings instead.

   2. +1

      Thanks for doing this again Luke. I know you’ve considered giving it up in the past but rest assured that your site is read by me every day, religiously. I know you don’t need the “peer pressure” to continue this labor of love, but I hope you do.

   3. +1
      Luke & Todd are my go-to guys.
      Being a minor league seamhead, this is always the first site in the morning for me.

      1. Agree. I also look at both sites everyday. If I type N into my phone, those two sites pop up to click on right away. Thanks!

2. So, who’s everyone’s hitters and pitchers of the year?

   At pitcher, I have the Austins (Williams and Voth), but honorable mentions to Andrew Lee, Koda Glover, Francys Peguero and Pedro Avila for their shortened-season dominance in the bullpen.

   Of the hitters, it’s between Trea Turner, Jose Marmolejos-Diaz and Bryan Mejia, with honorable mentions for Victor Robles, Telmito Agustin and Roberto Medina for their very good shortened seasons.

   I think my final picks are Voth and Marmolejos-Diaz.

   1. For me the pitchers are Voth and Giolito, while the hitters are Turner and Robles.

      My end of season Nats Top 10 prospects list looks like this:

      1. Luke Giolito
      2. Trea Turner
      3. A.J. Cole
      4. Victor Robles
      5. Austin Voth
      6. Wilmer Difo
      7. Erick Fedde
      8. Reynaldo Lopez
      9. Anderson Franco
      10. Chris Bostick

      1. That high still for Cole?

         1. Cole pitched very well down the stretch, and in my judgement the others haven’t (yet) done enough to pass him.

   2. Voth and OMD or Turner

   3. You mean the annual kiss of death award? Maybe they should give the pitching plaque to Pivetta since he’s already been traded! (Sorry, couldn’t resist.)

      Pitchers: As much of a fan as I am of what Andrew Lee, Fedde, and Glover have done in half a season (not to mention Joe Ross), there are too many good arms who pitched the full year not to reward them. My vote would go to Austen Williams, just barely over Bleier. I know a lot of folks discount Bleier since he’s not really a “prospect,” but he had an outstanding year across AA/AAA. Voth would be just behind those two on my list, probably followed by Giolito and then a group that includes Simms, Bacus, and Rauh. All in all, there are lots of promising arms on the horizon.

      Hitters: Ugh. If we’re looking at guys who played a full season in the Nats’ system, I think it has to be Marmolejos-Diaz, even though he was really nothing special, particularly for a corner infielder. I don’t even know who would be second; maybe Skole and his org-leading 20 HRs, despite all the time he spent near the Mendoza line, or Difo, the incumbent POY, who suffered a bit from the time on the DC shuttle. If we include guys who played only half a season, I’d probably go with Turner by a hair over Robles, with Mejia and Stevenson close behind. Schock played even less because of his “hold-out” but would be in the conversation.

3. Luke,

   Thank you so much for keeping the site alive. And to my fellow Nats seamheads, thank you for stirring the drink with comments and insights and debates. The tone here is fantastic and complements the subject matter and its art (prospect gazing) so well. People are respectful and inviting. And my special buddy Jeff in Yorba Linda, who plays serve and volley while I work at my New York desk in the wee small hours of the morning.

   Somehow, even with less of the treasured, “Last night in Woodbridge” treatments we have so eagerly anticipated, the site reached new heights this year. And of course, we all hope you give your end of year reviews of Potomac and later on, the watchlists. May God keep you healthy and give you work success and comfort from man’s best friend.

   Regards,

   Your many other friends!

4. A few observations:

   1) This year, there was a far more aggressive promotional philosophy in the minors than previously. Some benefitted from this to regain a degree of luster. There was also a flurry of late season promotion, much like the cup of coffee of September roster expansion. Instead, there was the late August cup of coffee for a number of players, some of whom really shined.

   2) The yield from the 2015 draft is promising and off to a comparatively far better start than 2014. In my own prospect sheet (which emphasizes performance over measurables), I’ve got 8 draftees in my top 50 (Lee, Stevenson, Schrock, Glover, Watson, Wiseman, Dulin, Hearn). That two of these players were heavily bonused late round picks is a nice plum for the Nats scouting corps.

   3) I find it very hard to differentiate a ranking between Giolito and Trea Turner in terms of value as prospects. All hype aside, Giolito has yet to consistently dominate and yet he appears to be close to getting his chance to a spot in the Nats rotation. I think he will get a lot of attention in the fall instructional league and come to spring training as a non-roster invite. The brass thinking about his readiness, after fall instructionals, will dictate some of the off season strategy. Recall that the decision to sign Scherzer was made at the end of this past season and was meant to be a 2016 replacement for one of the departing starters — because he was better (in theory) than anyone in the 2016 class. As fot Turner, his importance to the organization is intangible in the Werthian sense. The major league team has shown too much quit and lack of spark when needed, with yesterday’s pitiful display with runners in scoring position, needs energy. Turner is that and an emerging talent of uncertain ceiling. I think it was great for the team to bring him up, and if the team wits, he will get his meaningful starts to get his 0-fers out of his system. Turner is the truth.

   4) The system has succeeded in starting a major flush of non-performers. Some of the GCL Nats who were promising imports really disappointed (Mota, Villerio, Pimentel, Ramirez, Fuentes), but they are young and next year they will have that much more developmental time in. Others have impressed and shown promise for more. 20 of my top 50 weren’t even playing until July (21 if you count Fedde). So the transformation of the prospect picture has been massive.

   5) A number of players really helped themselves with particularly strong finishes. But that is for anther time.

5. One other thing of note is the Nats are FINALLY beginning to see some IFA signees turning into real prospects. Difo, Robles, Severino and Lopez are the obvious ones, but to that we can now add Abreu, Franco and Lora, and going a bit deeper are “Orange,” Mejia, Agustin, Soto and Avila. Just one time as this season showed how badly they need to depth in the system.

   1. I think this is one of the big take-aways from the Nats’ 2015 minor league system – the word they did internationally post-Smiley is finally starting to bear some real fruit and much of it is really close to being plucked from the minor league vine, with a lot more to be harvested in the coming years.

      That’s a huge turnaround for an organization that went about 5 years with very little to show in terms of developing international players.

6. Just wanna add my thanks to Luke – and to the fellow commentors on this site – I come here almost daily and it’s an indispensable source of info and opinions.

   I appreciate the effort that goes into this a great deal.

7. The Nats really are the Expos, still. Oh, brother.

   1. It’s worse than that. Because of poor ownership, the Expos rarely had a chance to fairly compete and were always losing their good players to other teams. The Nats have the money to compete–they’re just chokers.

      1. September cometh before November. Expos faithful like myself have unhealed war wounds of watching September baseball featuring talented Expos teams doing spectacular fades. Before there was Drew Storen, there was Rick Monday homering off Steve Rogers.

         And then the one year they didn’t get a chance to fade was ended by a strike.

         Last two nights were like having a flashback to the familiar. Expos torment was a yearly occurrence in many of the pennant races of the Dawson/Carter/Walker/Raines years.

         Ownership wise, Jeffrey Loria proved you could be a psychopath and still win a world series.

8. Let me add to the list of folks who appreciate the work Luke has put into this site…lots of useful information, insight, and conversation to make the season complete.

9. It occurred to me while reading through the comments above that I’d be hard-pressed to say with any certainty who the #2 pitcher in the Nats system is (assuming consensus that Giolito is #1). I assume the scouts would still say Fedde or Lopez. Lopez struggled early, resulting in a high ERA, but his WHIP and BBs are low, and he had some dominant performances in the home stretch. Fedde was strong at Auburn but had the inevitable rude awakening when he stepped up to Hagerstown. His WHIP across both stops was the same as Lopez’s, 1.22.

   I have no idea how Cole still falls in the grand scheme of things. He struggled a bit early and around his ill-fated MLB start, but he finished strongly. I think it’s unfair to tag him as a AAAA guy when he has more than held his own at the highest MiLB levels at a young age. He tends to get grouped with Taylor Jordan, who is three years older.

   All Voth does is get guys out. He isn’t 6’5″ and doesn’t throw 98, which makes him an odd duck in the Nats organization, yet he still gets very high K totals. I keep thinking the organization will trade him, although Pivetta, who fits the big, hard-throwing profile, went before he did.

   I’m interested to see what the prospect rankers do with my guy Andrew Lee, who came out of the ‘pen to dominate much more as a starter at Hagerstown than Fedde did. It should be interesting to see if they start taking notice of Austen Williams as well.

   1. Personally, I’ve still got Cole as the next ranking prospect, because he is young, because he had to contend with being changed to the bullpen and back, and has been able to put it all together in a major league game (after getting hammered, of course). And have Voth ahead of Lopez. Voth was remarkably consistent, led the EL in strikeouts (no small feat), sustained his performance all the way through the season and finished strong, and knows what he doing on the mound.

      Lopez has yet to demonstrate consistent command and will hopefully grow into that as he advances to AA next year. He can out up eye popping numbers on guns and has in starts, but Jake Johannsen has thrown hard and blown out, and John Simms had his great pitching lines, too.

      I am still going to advocate Rafael Martin. Could he possibly be worse than what we have seen from the chokers now inhabiting the bullpen? He came back, found a groove, and now sits on the bench in DC. He not a *prospect* by ageism and by virtue that everyone refuses to acknowledge his existence, but after Lopez, Rafael Martin is to me the most promising rookie-eligible arm that has yet to get his full shot to sink or swim. I hope we see more of him.

      I’d then put Lee ahead of Fedde, and only because we don’t really know how good Fedde is post-surgery yet and because I would personally downgrade any player rehabbing until they prove a return to dominance. A nice start at Hagerstown at season’s end cannot be overinterpreted. As for Lee, since I would define prospect by ceiling, here is a guy who has not been able to concentrate on pitching and who is now being converted to start. So he will get good attention in the IL. Fedde is more of a formed product of uncertain degree of recovery. he is not yet 100 percent, and so he should not be assessed with the presumption of such.

      After that I’ve got Williams (also a developing arm- late bloomer), Koda Glover, then Simms, and yes, Tyler Watson, then Maximo Valerio and Pedro Avila. The rest of the prospects drop off in my estimation for one reason or another, though I know that Joan Baez has his fans and I know you like Bleier and respect that. I just can;t see him as amounting to more than this year’s version of Aaron Laffey.

      1. I don’t really see Bleier as a prospect for the big club at all; just giving him his props for a job well done where he was given the opportunity. But who knows, he’s younger than Martin and Clint Robinson!

         I would add Bacus and Rauh to your mix for the top 10. I do hope Luke still does his crowd-sourcing this fall. It feels like the offseason has already started after the demise of the big club last night.

         Glover was the earliest mover from the draft class. Considering all the bullpen guys who got fast-tracked this year, I’ll definitely have an eye on him.

      2. I should add that Bleier is a *LH* starter, which is about as rare in the Nats system as the Loch Ness monster. Of course sightings of that other LH starter, Purke, are about as rare as those of the Loch Ness monster . . .

         I’m not sure there would be any lefties in the Nats top 10, although they took several in the 2015 draft who might show up on the radar next year.

         1. I wonder if the Nationals have decided to transition Purke to the bullpen as they did with Solis, as Purke finished the season out of Harrisburg’s ‘pen. They may see more long-term value for him as a reliever as they did with Solis.

            That said, if the Nationals decided to have an open competition for the fifth rotation spot for the big club come spring, I’d be interested to see Purke and Solis in the mix for that.

            1. Has anyone looked at what Tyler Mapes did at Potomac this year?

            2. Good point about Purke to the ‘pen. I had forgotten that. I wonder if they will stretch out at least one among him, Solis, and Rivero next spring, though, just to have a LH starter option.

            3. Mapes put up very good numbers. He would certainly be in the conversation of top 10 arms. The Nats are loaded with these types of guys, which is part of the reason they probably felt they could part with someone like Pivetta.

            4. I agree about the others but I don’t think Purke is a real viable option.

            5. Oh, I completely agree that Purke isn’t nearly ready to be in MLB games. Of course Solis had barely pitched in two years and got called up anyway, so you never know.

         2. Bleier had a nice year but he is really 4A material.

10. I would pay to see Tyler Moore, Trea Turner in the starting lineup every day, Rafael Martin, Sam Solis, and Matt Grace out of pen, and Cole with starts. All else is known.

    1. I think Matt Grace has had enough opportunities thank you. WTH on the others.

11. Ryan Sullivan at Nats GM has a great series going scouting Potomac players he has seen on multiple occasions. He’s great, very good source for us because he actually watched players a lot, the way Luke does.

12. God Bless the United States of America

Comments are closed.