NationalsProspects.com

The NationalsProspects.com Top 10 Pitchers


As I expected, participation would be robust on this one — 15 ballots — and the top dog was the unanimous choice. A total of 24 pitchers were named, with four of the top five named on every ballot.

Before I continue, here’s the list:

                              1. Lucas Giolito
                              2. A.J. Cole
                              3. Reynaldo Lopez
                              4. Austin Voth
                              5. Erick Fedde
                              6. Matt Grace
                              7. Taylor Hill
                              8. Jefry Rodriguez
                              9. Felipe Rivero
                              10. Jake Johansen

Others receiving votes: Sammy Soilis, Nick Pivetta, Travis Ott, Rafael Martin, John Simms, Gilberto Mendez, Jake Walsh, Robert Benincasa, Wander Suero, Robbie Dickey, Luis Torres, Matt Spann, Matt Purke, Eric Fornataro

Now, the thoughts…

• This is the third straight year Giolito has been named the #1 pitcher, so no pressure to come to DC in 2015, right?

• Cole was also #2 for the second straight year, but turns 23 next month and we’re already seeing speculation as to when he’ll make his MLB debut. I’ll be the jerk who will note that he’d be an awfully good trade chip (see: Karns, Nathan).

• Lopez went from zero ballots in 2013 to the #3 pitcher in 2014. Saw him twice this past summer and this kid can deal. He got my #2 vote, one of two that Cole did not get.

• The other went to Fedde, who makes the list despite being in recovery from UCL replacement surgery. I’d scoff but Giolito is the knee-jerk “Yeah, but” and being the Nats top draft pick is going to carry some weight no matter what.

• As some of you noted, the list breaks down rather quickly after the first five or so names. The gap between #7 and #12 was just seven points. Until the last three or four ballots came in, there was basically a five-way tie for the last three slots.

• Grace’s addition to the 40-man is being read by quite a few of you as the lefthanded analog to Aaron Barrett from a year ago (OK, fine maybe that’s just me)

• Hill made the list despite getting hammered in two MLB starts and giving up five HR in his last 10 starts at Syracuse. He and Grace will be 26 in 2015, thus continuing the tradition of the old-guy skew

With the close of the winter meetings, which also saw the Nats go Yukon Cornelius on the Rule 5 draft, we’re now at the point where we wait for trades and transactions. In between, and as always, feel free to discuss in the comments.

29 Commments

  2. Jim Callis from Baseball America/MLB.com just said the other day that Lucas Giolito was the best pitching prospect in all of baseball. He thinks Giolito is so great that he could be up with the Nats in September.
    Don’t get me wrong, I love our top 3; wouldn’t trade them for anybody, but Reynardo Lopez’s numbers are better and he’s on his first elbow. Just sayin……
    A.J Cole hits the Nats bullpen in August and in the rotation to start 2016. My hopes at least.

    Speaking of hope, here’s hoping that Sammy Solis & Matt Purke recover this year; the Nats and the system really need some lefthanders.

    1. Better get Lopez a new elbow soon then… the Nats seem much more comfortable with pitchers who are on their second one.

    2. What’s the rush with Giolito? I’d hope for about 40 percent of the season at Potomac, 40 percent at Harrisburg, and then shut him down. At that rate he’d still be in line to compete for an MLB rotation spot in the spring of 2016, although that might still be rushing him. More likely, he would be pushed back into June of that year or so because of the MLB service time issue.

      If anyone gets rushed this year, it would be Lopez, as he’s on his first elbow and doesn’t have Boras as his agent.

  3. Mark. But g force is so effort less. This spring should see g force
    Put oohs and ahs in crowds
    Interesting scenario with Cuban Jose Fernandez MIA somewhere
    In Cuba. At the rate nats are dealing with big five contracts. Fernandez
    Could be item 8 to deal with before camp???

  5. So, in looking at the bats & pitchers together, it seems to me that the prospect rankings should look much more favorably on the Nats this year. I’d guess that most will put Fedde above Voth (as they give more credit to draft position until proven otherwise), and similarly many may rank Reetz ahead of Difo and Ward. All that aside, I think this should be the first year in awhile that the Nats will be credited with a solid top eight that are real ML prospects (B/B+) and that is well balanced across bats and arms, with some decent depth behind that.
    It’s good to be building a little momentum given that there will be all the expiring contracts at the ML level over the next couple of years that may need to be replaced (either internally or with trades). (Not to mention having good ML prospects at each level to follow this year).

  6. Unrelated question but can anyone tell me if Ward is decent defensively at third? Might that be his position in the future?
    Related comment: how does Johassen get the notice he does. Other than velocity with his fast ball, he doesn’t seem to have much going for him.
    Another unrelated item: Is there any realistic chance that the Nats sign one of the Cuban second basemen. I’m especially interested in the youngest one. (I forget his name but it begins with an ‘m’, I believe.) I had heard that the Nats were interested. I’m also aware he isn’t major league ready yet.

    1. My Hagerstown guy wasn’t high on his “D” but I have a feeling they’ll do what they did with Matt Skole — give him every opportunity to succeed until they have to slide him across the diamond.

      Johansen is a good example of the bias that a high draft pick gets combined with the mistaken belief that velocity trumps command and control. Look at how much ink Cole Kimball got for his so-called 98mph heater when he couldn’t strike out an opposing batter ordered not to swing. Likewise for Hector Nelo or H-Bomb.

      1. Luke,

        Don’t be surprised if you see Skole at third base in Syracuse with the big bat Kevin Keyes across the diamond. It kind of feels as if the experiment of Skole at third goes on. Left-handed bat in the lineup with Rendon moving to second?

        Could end up with the same deal with the left-handed hitting Ward if he’s a fast riser.

      2. I know I will get hate mail for this but I think Ward could and should see some reps in LF.

        1. Not from me – once Taylor and Souza graduate, we’re looking at a HUGE gap of age-appropriate-to-the-level OFs

          1. Such a decision about Ward may be predicated on what the big club does at 2B and with Rendon. If Rendon stays at 3B and they get a long-term answer at 2B, then it would make sense to start giving Ward an OF look. If they get a one-year rental, then they may keep Ward on track at 3B, at least for the time being. But the suggestion makes sense, a la what they did with Souza.

            Up the chain, I wonder if Skole will get some LF time as well, just to give him more utility flexibility.

  7. Dave B, agree with your comment(s). At face value I wouldn’t trade our top ten for those of most other organizations. Of course, I’m assuming health.

  8. To re coin a phrase from the old CBS
    Western – have Gun. Will travel.
    Ward will be have bat will travel around diamond .
    Outfielder in future ?

  9. Jeeves. Goose Gossage was late bloomer
    In white sox chain
    JJ is a great guy. He can chart pitches and chat
    With fans like a true Texan gent

  11. Would have been nice to see Rafael Martin make the list even if he has become a bit long-in-the-tooth by baseball
    standards.

  12. Peric: agree on Skole experiment
    Especially if Ramsey and Vettleson join
    Him in Cuse with Keyes clubbing from
    1 b/ DH time .
    AAA/AA signees may come around
    February

  13. Clint Robinson – Good for 1B/DH and lefthanded bat depth. Now Keyes and other AA products can earn their Syracuse ticket rather than to be rushed. And, Skole can continue to get 3B reps.

  15. Baseball America list is out:

    “@lacylusk: .@Nationals Top 10 Prospects by @BaseballAmerica: Giolito, Taylor, Lopez, Fedde, Souza, Cole, Difo, Ward, Goodwin and Pivetta. 5 RHPs, 3 OFs”

    Jakson Reetz didn’t make the list. Goodwin makes the list.

    1. Luke, I like your position player Top 10. Baseball America has 1. Taylor 2. Souza 3. Difo 4. Ward 5. Goodwin

      1. Steve Souza
      2. Michael Taylor
      3. Wilmer Difo
      4. Drew Ward
      5. Jakson Reetz
      6. Brian Goodwin
      7. Matt Skole
      8. Spencer Kieboom
      9. Rafael Bautista
      10. Pedro Severino

    2. I guess BA is still rating Goodwin on “potential,” as it is Fedde. I wonder if Goodwin’s “potential” still has any value on the trade market, though.

  16. Mario Lisson and Delta Cleary definite
    Decisions in spring for destination . aAA
    Or AA. Like the resigning of Demny and
    Lively .
    Lisson and cutter might be battling for
    AAA ticket. Maybe Cleary enables
    Gardner junior to play mr Taylor went to
    Washington in RF.
    Maybe not the 2015 chiefs but a formidable Cuse
    Crew
    Thoughts? Reactions. ? Pat methany requests ?
    Spring ain’t here by PM smooth

  17. Lisson must have connections with some
    Of the former royal farm staff hirings in last few
    Years – Mark Harris or Tripp Keister??
    Luke?

  18. Lisson is defense at 3b. Cleary looks like bench at AA. Can’t see Lisson displacing Cutter, who has found….

    “The Way Up”

  19. Gil Grissom , we might soon add former friar number one pick
    From Berkeley ca. Joe Ross if this trade goes down.
    Trea Turner. We cannot say Nat turner. So embody PC might jump my butt. Mkkk

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