Wednesday’s News & Notes
| Team | Yesterday | Today | Pitching Probables |
| Rochester | Lost, 7-1 | @ Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, 6:35pm | Champlain (0-0, 6.10) vs. E. Rodríguez (1-1, 1.15 |
| Harrisburg | Won, 5-4 | vs. Altoona, 12pm | Clemmey (0-0, 4.00) vs. Stumbo (0-2, 7.94) |
| Wilmington | Lost, 13-5 | @ Frederick, 7pm | Maddox (1-1, 4.85) vs. Dzierwa (2-1, 2.50) |
| Frdericksburg | Lost, 12-2 | @ Salem, 11:05am | Meckley (1-0, 1.42) vs. Patton (1-0, 2.35) |
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre 7 Rochester 1
• Ogasawara (L, 0-1) 4⅔ IP, 8H, 5R, 5ER, 2BB, 7K, HR
• Shuman 1IP, 0H, 0R, 0BB, 0K
• Lipscomb 1-3, R, BB, HR, RBI
• Ford 1-4, 2K
Trey Lipscomb’s third-inning HR tied the game and broke up the shutout, but it was all Railriders after that for a 7-1 win over the Red Wings. Shinnosuke Ogasawara was lit up for the first five runs on eight hits (one HR) and two walks over four and 2/3rds to take the loss, his first. Andre Granillo stranded two to end the 5th but put the game out of reach with back-to-back solo HRs with two out in the 6th. Harry Ford and Robert Hassell rounded out the Rochester hit column of three (3) while Christian “Hey It’s” Franklin drew the sole walk and stole his 5th base. Roster moves: OF Levi Jordan placed on the Development List..
• Luckham (W, 2-1) 6IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 6K, HR
• Mejia (SV, 1) 1IP, 0H, 0R, 0BB, 0K
• S. Brown 2-3, R, 2BB, RBI
• Pichardo 2-2, 2R, 2BB, 2-2B, SB
• Thomas 2-3, BB, 2RBI, SB, CS
Harrisburg scored single runs in five consecutive innings from the 3rd to the 7th and held off Altoona, 5-4 to take the series opener. Kyle Luckham turned in a winning quality start with three runs let in on four hits (one HR) and a walks. He struck out six while winning his second game. Jared Simpson walked three of four batters faced before Luke Young ended the threat. Young gave up the final run on a HR in the 8th but Erick Mejia set the side down in order in the 9th for the save. Sam Brown and Kevin Pichardo both reached base four times on two singles (Brown) and two doubles (Pichardo) and two walks apiece to lead the Senators offense. Roster moves: IF Marcus Brown reassigned from Wilmington.
Frederick 13 Wilmington 5
• Lyon (L, 0-1) 1⅔ IP, 2H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 1K, HBP
• Aldonis 1⅓ IP, 1H, 0R, 0BB, 2K, WP
• R. Cruz 2-4, R, BB, HR, RBI
• Vaquero 2-4, SB
The Blue Rocks failed in all three phases of the game, getting lit up for 13 runs, going 0-for-10 with RISP and nine LOB, and committing two errors in a 13-5 rout by the Keys. Isaac Lyon lost his High-A debut with two runs allowed on two hits, two walks, and a hit batsman in an inning and 2/3rds. Ronny Cruz homered, walked, and singled in his first game at the level while T.J. White and Randal Diaz each hit solo HRs. Wilmington struck out 13 times, led by… wait for it… Elijah Green with nos. 31, 32, and 33 in his 14th game of the year.
Salem 12 Fredericksburg 2
• Portorreal (L, 0-1) 4IP, 9H, 6R, 6ER, 1BB, 1K,
• Rojas 1IP, 0H, 0R, 0BB, 1K
• Peoples 1-3, R, BB, HR, RBI
• James 1-4, SB
Salem went to town on the Fredericksburg pitchers, scoring 12 runs in the space of four innings as the RidgeYaks gored the FredNats, 12-2. Leuris Portorreal took the brunt of the beating, giving up six runs on nine hits and a walk while fanning one (1). Liam Sullivan did little to dispute his demotion as the 23-y.o. southpaw was torched for five runs in the space of ten batters. Nick “Power to the” Peoples homered to end the shutout bid and was the lone bright spot in a six-hit, six-walk, 12-whiff showing by the Fredericksburg offense. Roster moves: C Christian Fagnant activated from the Development List.
It wasn’t a great day for the affiliates, but there was still some life in the bats. At the moment, there are 25 players with at least 30 PA with a wRC+ above 100 (average). Of these 25 players, a remarkable 18 are on the watchlist. Only 3 are genuine non-prospects Pichardo, Riley Adams and Johnathon Thomas, while the other 4 probably merit a reflection on whether they should be added back to the list: Nick Peoples, Max Romero, TJ White and Jacob Walsh.
Not so long ago, in 2024, we finished the season with 14 batters with a wRC+ above 100 among hitters in A ball or higher with > 250 PA. Of which, only 10 were “prospects” (the other 4 being MLFAs).
Another shift I see is that presently 32 players with >30 PA have a BB% above 10% (this is out of a total of 45). Perhaps some of this can be ascribed to early season jitters/mechanics and cold weather, but in 2024, we again had only 14 players with walk rates above 10%.
On the other hand, in 2024, only 10 players struck out more than 30% of the time, whereas currently 12 players are doing so. Though this could also be a selection bias. Players who maintain high strikeout rates are less likely to make it to 250 plate appearances (looking at you Elijah Green presently at 51% and Hunter Hines at 46%).
It’s still very early days, but it does look like the organizational overhaul is already showing some significant systemic changes.
Peoples peoples peoples
Chill wills in 1963 McClintock film lol
On another note, I was wondering what Boston Smith has gotten up to since getting traded. He was one I was really excited about from the 2025 draft, and was bummed to see him get dealt for Curtis Mead.
He got quickly promoted to A+, where he’s currently hitting .316/.435/.895 (no that last number is not OPS, it’s SLG… lol) for a 232 wRC+… of course, it’s an incredibly small sample (5 games). FWIW, Smith looks pretty solid behind with what limited metrics there are for catchers in the minors, with a 38% caught stealing rate. I hope we don’t rue this trade
Will – very true. I liked the look of him too.
However, you can also look at it as we took a 2025 6th round draft pick, whio signed for 60k, and 4 baseball playing months later have a guy who’s hit 3 HR’s in MLB.
That sounds like a pretty good deal…. 😉
OK, but can Boston Smith slide into 3B on close plays? I already rue this trade, regardless how Smith turns out. It just seems like a contradictory move for this new front office.
I meant to note: Your stats and insights are always most helpful, Will. What a tremendous addition they are to my understanding.
Even if it lasts to a meaningful sample size, I wouldn’t get that excited about a gaudy statline by a senior draftee in the low minors. Until he does something at AA, I’d argue that matching Mead’s production so far this season (0.1 fWAR) is at least an 90th percentile result.
The trade that I’m ruing in hindsight is Bennett (0.55 ERA, 2.51 FIP) for Perales (5.05 ERA, 5.26 FIP). Maybe Bennett is simply farther along his recovery, but I’m growing suspicious that Bennett might have the higher floor and the higher ceiling.
the good on Lyon, his sweeper has some serious movement. the bad is how many times he starts it off the plate. he fired two in a row to Nate George that his catcher couldn’t have pulled in with a pool skimmer.
good test tonight for Maddox. after last night’s parade of Rocks relievers I’m hoping for him to handle this lineup of top O’s prospects and go 4-5 innings.