Ten for 2024
Some years are easier than others to write this sort of thing. That may explain why there are some years that this was done and some years that it wasn’t. Or I just simply could have had a lot going on and didn’t get to it.
So let’s take a spin through a tumultuous year and do a little let’s remember…
IFA Spending Spikes Again
A year ago, it looked like the Nats were spreading their “eggs” over multiple baskets after several high-priced gambles. Some paid off (Juan Soto). Others didn’t (Yasel Antuna). And there are others for which the jury is still out (Armando Cruz, Cristhian Vaquero). This past January, the pendulum swung back with $2.8M spent on Victor Hurtado and $1.7M on Angel Feliz. The combined $4.7M would be more than 75% all of the Nats’ International bonus pool.
Cade Cavalli: Training with Sidd Finch?
After developing Nats elbow in 2023 spring training, Cavalli was expected to return to the majors by the 2024 All-Star Break. Instead, he made three appearances spaced 10 and 22 days apart in May and June and then disappeared. There was talk of him having the flu and dead arm, both of which do not pass the sniff test, given the Nats’ long history of lying obfuscation. Allegedly, he ran out of season and was about to pitch again in late September, though his absence from the Arizona Fall League begs the question ‘Why didn’t he appear here?’
Travis Sykora: The Next Coming Thing
The Nats’ 3rd Rd. pick in 2023 did not pitch in the regular season, which is now becoming more common… and more frustrating for prospect-watchers. It was worth the wait, though, as the turning-20-y.o. debuted in Fredericksburg and made 22 starts, including the first six innings of a combined no-hitter and the first five innings of the Mills Cup Title Game. Sykora struck out 129 over 85 regular-season innings, which was a minors-leading 39.2% K rate (13.66/9IP), and only walked 27 (2.86) while giving up two (2) HRs.
Fredericksburg Wins the Carolina League Championship
In a painful reminder that the goal is to develop first, win second, Sykora’s 20 brilliant starts were offset by 21 starts of Travis “Sunday” Sthele. Not fun fact: Sthele won six, Sykora five. A 39-win second half combined with a strong bullpen and an improved offense led the F-Nats to its first Mills Cup title since 2014, which ended a ten-year title drought for the Nats minors.
James Wood Graduates; Dylan Crew Does Not
The pundits liked Crews more than Wood while this community favored Wood over Crews. In the short term, so did the Nats as the 21-y.o. Wood was promoted in July and amassed 300+ PA while the 22-y.o. Crews got the bump in late August and justavoided the ROY cutoff. In the long term, we can hope that the two will be written up like Gold Dust Twins in Boston or the Killer B’s in Pittsburgh.
The Other #1 Picks
While the Nats fandom will be giddy with the prospect of getting a 1-1 pick for the third time since the franchise relocated from Montreal, it might be worth remembering that not all 1st Round picks pan out. Case in point: Mason Denaburg, the 2018 1st. Rd. pick who only made it to High-A as a 25th-birthday present and was released last month. The pandemic and Nats elbow had him resume his career at Low-A at the age of 22, effectively negating his HS status. After what appeared to be a breakthrough 2023 (8-4 across AA and AAA and four MLB starts), Jackson Rutledge, the Nats’ 2019 1st Rd. pick, reverted to the mean in 2024, struggling to keep his ERA below 7 in 27 AAA starts. He’s still on the 40-man but seems unlikely to stay in Washington for more than a few weeks.
T.J. White and Elijah Green
While the Nats have been more amenable to drafting H.S. players in the New World Order, the foibles of T.J. White (5th Rd. ’21) and Elijah Green (1st Rd. ’22) should serve as a reminder that the higher ceiling is not without risk. White and Brady House were seen in 2021-22 as a possible prospect duo like Crews and Wood. Instead, only House has risen while White has stalled at High-A the past two seasons. It’s a similar story with Green, who has done the same at Low-A despite tools that are very bit as good as advertised. 2025 could prove to be a pivotal year for both to regain some luster.
Gentle Parenting in Wilmington and Harrisburg (No Hitting)
Sure, there were some exceptions but the Nats’ High-A and AA teams were dreadful, both averaging less than four runs per game. Yes, there were large groups in Fredericksburg who also had trouble finding water after falling off a pier, but it was far more noticeable in the two levels above. The Senators had such good pitching that they nearly won the first half despite a differential of just six runs. The Blue Rocks, however, did not and finished last in both halves.
Evaluating the Draft without the Short Season
For 2024, the complex leagues began in early May and ended in late July, which effectively shut out most of the Draft picks from appearing in the same season, given the short gap between when the draft was over (July 16) and when the FCL and AZL ended play (July 2025). What remains to be seen for 2025 is whether the concern was truly about protecting draftees’ arms (due to the limit of players under contract reduced to 165) or whether it was about a Rule 5 loophole (e.g., placing a signee onto a team after a season is over) that hadn’t been closed yet. If it’s former, the change could be permanent; if it’s latter, then we could have a more “normal” domestic short season in 2025.
Breakout Pitching Seasons
I’m sure folks may chime in with others, but two stood out in 2024. The first was Andry Lara, who was saddled with high expectations with a $1.25M signing bonus in 2019, but did not produce the kinds of numbers one would expect from a guy ranked in the Top 5 by MLB Pipeline from 2020 to 2022 before tumbling to #15 in 2023. Things clicked in ’24, as the 21-y.o. made it to AA and posted a 3.63/4.41/1.19 line in 19 starts. The second was Brad Lord, who pitched at three levels (though only one start at High-A), with a stellar 1.40/3.05/1.03 mark over 12 AA starts and a more down-to-earth 3.93/3.81/1.39 in 12 AAA starts. Lord turns 25 in February and could very well have @sshole start spelling his name BrAAAAd Lord by August. Or he could called up like Jake Irvin and unexpectedly stick.
Just a quick note on why we’re still excited about the Nats lucking their way to the #1/#1 pick. The difference in “hit” rate between the top 2-3 players in the draft and the middle- to back-end of the first round is HUGE. Of course, there are still misses (looking at you, Brady Aiken and Spencer Torkelson) but there is a good chance at getting a 20-30+ WAR players and a small but not insignificant chance of getting a true star.
TL;DR: later 1st round pick results are not really an apt comparison to the possibilities for a #1/#1 pick.
you don’t have to go all the way to later 1st round, the drop-off after #1/#1 comes very fast
for me, watching Brad Lord attack hitters was the most pleasurable breakout pitching performance. so much is made about stuff but having the confidence and command to throw what you’ve got can bring success.
Breakout performance hitter in 2025?? Let’s take a straw poll .
With or without Phil Hartman in WP.
Which loogie will Rizzo add to the bullpen conga line audition poll .
( cue Chorus line sound track , Luke ) Garvin Alston even has a shot ??
Breakout hitter: folks sort of gave up on Morales as he missed much of 2024 due to injury, but he came back and was very strong in Aug./Sept., at AA in his first full pro season. If he clicks, he could see MLB time in 2025.
It’s somewhat chalky to tag a first-round pick, but with their system-wide lack of depth in the middle infield, Seaver King will be given every opportunity to move up quickly.
I’ll also make a small wager that, if finally healthy, Hassell looks like a significantly different and better hitter.
Beyond the bigger names, I’m curious about fifth-round pick Randal Diaz, who had a fantastic season at the plate last year for Indiana State. Maybe it will transfer to the pros, maybe it won’t.
Angel Feliz checks all the boxes for me. he and Tejeda are the first two prospects to bring a .300 BA stateside in quite a while.
in the upper levels I may be clutching at straws but I am still in on Hassell
That’s a very good summary, Luke. To me, to combine two or three of them, the best story was the general pitching emergence, despite MIAs from guys like Cavalli, Henry, and Bennett. Sykora lived up to the hype, Lara and Susana had seasons that finally matched previous hype, Lord and Alvarez ascended out of nowhere, and deadline trades brought unusually promising returns in Clemmey and Stuart.
I want to second this point about pitching development.
Before the season, if I had to list out the pitchers most important to the organization, it would have been: Gray, Gore, Irvin, Herz, Rutledge, Susana, Sykora, Cavalli, Bennett, Lara, and Parker. Bennett was already known to be out for the season, so nothing positive or negative there. Gray went down to TJ and Rutledge flamed out. Cavalli has complications during rehab. I still have hope, but it’s no a sure thing he’ll come back. 1 neutral and 3 bad, leaves 7 good.
All 7 avoided injuries and pitched full seasons with good results and significant positive development. That’s incredible and I think any of us would have signed up for that in a heartbeat. Hopefully it’s real, and we see more of it next season.
too subtle perhaps to make the list was the organization’s aggressive promotions of some top prospects. when asked about draft strategy one of the traits they looked for was handling new challenges. convention wisdom views mastering a level as a requirement but often just holding their own was enough.
do Morales and Lile start in Rochester?
I would think that Lile starts at Harrisburg, much as House did in 2024. The OF in Rochester may already be a bit crowded anyway with Hassell, Pinckney, Call, and Garrett.
Unlike some, I’m not sold on Jacob Young as a long-term MLB starter, so I think there’s still a real opportunity if someone among Hassell, Pinckney, or Lile takes a significant step forward, particularly in the power department. If more than one surges, we would welcome having some high-quality trade chips.
Morales starting at AAA would seem to be more likely, unless they still feel like he needs more work on fundamentals at 1B. With Lowe controlled for two seasons, there won’t be a rush.
Thinking about those guys in the AAA OF leads me to the thought that this has a chance to be one of the Nats’ best AAA squads in years. House at 3B, Nunez at SS, Baker at 2B, Morales at 1B, Chaparro DH, rotation including Cavalli, Lord, Alvarez, Stuart, maybe Lara, perhaps with Rutledge auditioning as closer.
100%. It’s almost a whole roster of at least fringy prospects. It should be fun to watch. (But also telling if they struggle.)
I think Call is out of options
No, Call still has options. But what’s your bench configuration to get Call off the roster?
I have Call as OF4. Garrett in AAA has OF5 in waiting. Yepez as the bench 1B/DH. Chaparro behind him in AAA. And I probably roster Nunez, but if you think he might actually learn how to hit given regular at bats in AAA, I think it has to be Lipscomb unless we bring in a 3B, in which case it’s Tena.
I was indicating that I didn’t see a path to AAA for Call short of a DFA. if the option CLE used on him in 2022 was negated by him being waived immediately after then the Nats have only used two of his three options.
I don’t think Nunez is good enough right now to be on an MLB roster, even as a reserve. To his credit, he didn’t totally embarrass himself at the plate when given a chance late in the season, but he really needs to be playing every day at AAA.
Call hit .222 in 75 games at AAA. Hard to pencil him in for a roster spot based on that. They likely will pick up a vet to be OF4. It will be hard to sell someone the level of Winker on the job, though, since whoever they sign wouldn’t be likely to start.
I really have no idea what the big club intends to do at 3B, or for SS reserve. Tena had solid AAA numbers in the CLE organization, so it’s possible they believe in him more than we know. He’s already an upgrade at the plate over Vargas.
Lipscomb would have to show a lot of improvement over the winter to have a shot at an MLB roster spot.
According to FG, Alex Call has two options remaining. Even if they haven’t updated to 2025 that should mean that he will have an option for the coming year.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Morales stats in AA in 2025 because they will want him to play every day and with the loser of the Yepez/Chaparro competition in ST goes to AAA Morales would have to split time if they want to keep the “first depth” player ready. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Morales starts in AAA if the team decide to test Morales after a solid-not-spectacular (119 wRC+) 69 games in AA last year. There’s a solid argument for either course, so I’ll leave it up to the Nats (I’m sure that Rizzo is relieved).