Nats Win 2025 Draft Lottery

18 Commments

1. Up early morning drive to the aeroport in the rain.
   Does LaViolette look like a future matinee idol or another guy with tools and NCAA numbers which make many drool long before he materializes in the MLB?
   Holliday comes from a family bloodline remindful of the Ripkins.
   Ethan Holliday sure seems to check off some of the boxes of the MO we are finding out so far from the new trioka ( Hass , BC and Dunn)
   Look at the two recent minor league FA additions
   Konner Pilington screams Hass connection to AZ plus he adds depth for LeCroy especially if Alvarez goes Rule 5 today
   Patrick Weigel seems to be a Dunn guy from ATL daze .
   Todd , I like your idea in your recent “ blog “ about having Cuevas return to some starting again for Sens as the young arms from Wilmington 2024 incubate for Delino .
   Another Angie about LaViolette : he will be suiting up for Cajun Tigers this next season . The big fall out from the skipper skipping College Station to Texas ( one of the biggest stories in Texas since “ who shot JR on Dallas ? lol !)
   By the way : did the “ trioka “ move around some of the scouting department especially the regional cross checkers ??
   As for that veteran starter to add . Trevor Bauer has had been mentioned but perhaps one who doesn’t involve draft pick compensation .
   Nats may pick up a player two in minor league portion of Rule 5 today ??

   1. In our case, let’s hope Ethan isn’t the Billy of the Holliday family.

      1. Hennie Youngmann vaudeville drum roll , Will.
         Thinking of Guardians replacing a guy like Clemmney now Nat in that Horwitz deal where the long tall Demon Deacon lefty acquired from Pittsburgh who added Tanner Rainey to receive some guru time with ole pal of us ex – pos Brent Strom .
         I’m sure the Nats scouts are always on the lookout for another Chase Solesky type pickup .

   2. I had a feeling this am that Nats would take Reifert from Rays .
      Hickey has been gone from Rays too long to have
      Been around Reifert ?

   3. Choi an interesting addition to pitching stable
      105 IP charts up there with Nats top farm starters logging IP.

   4. Ok , Gaylord Perry .. keep spit ballin but keep the manicure tools in your back pocket
      Choi’s delivery slightly reminds me of the Mariner pitcher who wears a single digit tooo

2. After reading some way-too-early prospect scouting reports of the top prospects in the 2025 draft, my first impression is that Holliday worries me. Besides the swing-and-miss concerns, he’s also a high schooler so he’s at best 3 years away. His brother Jackson, presenting basically the best case scenario, has taken 3 seasons (2022-2024) to have the chance to be a contributor in 2025. His miserable 2024 campaign shows there’s still lots to do for that to be a given. That puts Ethan on a 2028ish timeline, assuming the best possible conditions, and reaching the majors around age 21.

   Unfortunately, 2028 is when our young core starts breaking up. Gore, Garcia and Gray hit free agency after the 2027 season. Abrams hits free agency after 2028. That’s a pretty significant chunk of our core. Hopefully Sykora, King, and Susana will have stepped in by then, but TINSTAAPP.

   This teams needs more win-soon help, so I’d be looking closely at the college players, who could contribute in 2026ish, under ideal circumstances. LaViolette is an OF, but he’s not meant to be a defensive whiz, and has huge power projection. Sounds like with his body type, he might be relegated to the corner OF spots in general, but might fit well at 1B (a lefty to boot).

   However, these reports will no doubt change dramatically between now and July, and there will be many new players to consider than these 5.

   1. You’re right, but given that they’re not good now (and never will be again if they don’t start spending some money) there’s a lot to be said for building the post-Gore/Garcia/Gray stable as well.

      It’s all moot if they don’t sign any quality free agents – this is getting ridiculous.

      1. We always wait for the big names to drop after Fried . Next Corbin Burnes then guys like Sean Mannea .

   2. You want to draft guys that will eventually end up replacing your core, just as the Astros lost Cole, Correa, Springer and replaced them with Pena, Framber, Kyle Tucker. When we hit our “window” in 2012 our top draft picks were 2012 – Giolito (traded for Eaton) – ok, 2013 – Jake Johansson (dud), 2014 – Fedde (meh), Andrew Suarez (never signed), 2015 – Andrew Stevenson, 2016 – Carter Kieboom, Dane Dunning (Eaton), 2017- Seth Romero (gag), 2018 – Denaburg (dud), 2019 – Rutledge (ugh), 2020 – Cavalli (dud- 1 MLB start which was bad).

      So when we lose people to free agency/trades, we have nobody in the pipeline to replace them. So House shouldn’t stop us from drafting Holiday, Dylan Crews/James Wood/Jacob Young shouldn’t prevent us from drafting LaViolette. Only wish there was a Skenes/Strausburg type pitcher next year.
      Though we did a major whiff in 2008 when we drafted Aaron Crow at 1 and never even signed him, though he flamed out as a reliever later on.

      Basically our top end drafting other than 1-1 pretty much sucks.

      Question – our draft pool is tops, can our international money for 2025 be applied to Sasaki? There’s where I’d like to see us go!

      1. But none of this matters if your “core” doesn’t elevate you into a playoff caliber team. I’m not convinced that our present core group of players is good enough to make us perennial playoff contenders between 2025 to 2028. And a steady pipeline of talent in the late 2020s just sustains us as a slightly above .500 team. Thus, we need to make our team better in 2025-2028. That can be done in two ways: sign free agents or improve the farm system. I’m still waiting for signs on the former, so I’m envisioning ways to do the latter.

         Drafting the best player available is always the most straightforward method, but there are other equally valid approaches. In the absence of a consensus 1-1 pick this year, the Guardians drafted one of the best players, but not obviously the best, in Travis Bazzana, because they worked out a deal with him that saved almost $1.6m in the 1-1 slot bonus, which they immediately shoveled back into signing two highly rated HS prospects in the 3rd and 10th rounds, that they otherwise would’ve been priced out of. The Guardians took a calculated risk that Travis Bazzana+Joey Oakie+Chase Mobley > Charlie Condon, who was estimated by more prospect evaluators as the better prospect, and commanded a larger signing bonus despite being taken at #3.

      2. Yes it can be applied to Sasaki, but they are connected to two top 20 bonus guys from the DR. That could obviously change, but as of now both guys are still connected to DC. I would take Sasaki over both, but Nats are a tough sell and some teams have more money in their pools.

   3. Could not disagree more with this.

      The #1 overall pick should never be about who can help me the soonest. It has to be which player has franchise changing talent. Not saying the Nats should take Ethan Holliday, over Laviolette or Arnold or any other college player, just that the Nats have to take the player that projects to be the best player in the long term.

      Drew Pomerantz was the most advanced college pitcher in the 2010 MLB draft (the Indians drafted him 5th overall). Pomerantz made his MLB debut in 2011, before two HS players taken ahead of Pomerantz, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. What a mistake it would have been for either the O’s or Nats to take Pomerantz ahead of Harper or Machado, because Pomerantz was more advanced (or because Harper had some swing and miss in his game).

      Superstars are the different makers in baseball (that’s why Ohtani and Soto will make more than several MLB payrolls). The #1 pick has to be the player with the most superstar potential even if it means waiting an extra year to make his MLB debut.

   4. Will — that was pretty much my first couple of thoughts: 1) a high schooler won’t do us much good as the current core gains traction, and 2) “swing-and-miss tendencies.” Where have we heard that one before? As I said on Todd’s site, my first impression reading the reports on Holliday is that he’s a LH-hitting version of House. House still could end up being a very good major-leaguer, but it isn’t happening quickly.

      Luke mentioned something I hadn’t thought of: trading House. (Perhaps in conjunction with that they could move Abrams to 3B for the time being.) Or they could trade Holliday, but not until after the World Series (the “Trea Turner rule”). I really wish that MLB would allow trading of draft picks, like nearly every other sport does. But with your signing pool money tied to draft slots, there might be less incentive to move out of #1.

      1. All of that said, I still think you have to take the “best player,” as Pilchard argues. If Holliday truly looks like a “generational talent,” they shouldn’t pass on him. But as I noted on Todd’s site, at this time in December 2020, several thought that House was a sure bet to be 1/1. By July there had been a significant change of opinion.

3. Not signing Aaron Crow worked out fine for the Nationals. With the “do-over” pick in the next draft they selected Drew Storen. Storen had a much better career than Crow.

4. Nats lose Matt Cronin to the Mariners in the Minor League Phase of the Rule V draft.

   1. Fully healthy Cronin should find his “ blue heaven “ up in Pudget Sound .
      Hass Ciolek and Dunn here to spearhead the depth build for 2025-28

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