AFL/Offseason Update: Nov. 12, 2024
A four-run 1st would be more than enough for the Rafters to beat the Javelinas, 7-1.
Dustin Saenz made his third start and blanked Peoria for four innings, scattering five hits, walking none, and striking out two. He was credited with his second fall “W.”
Robert Hassell batted cleanup for the Rafters and went 2-for-4 with a double (#7) and an RBI. In center field, he made four putouts.
Salt River (15-12) visits Peoria (7-18) this afternoon.
2024 HARRISBURG SENATORS
While it was a very low bar to clear, the ’24 Senators had the best season of whatever we end up calling this decade. Harrisburg flirted with winning the first half and fell one game short, then finished in a three-way tie for 4th (or 5th or 6th) in the second half.
One thing that did not change: The hitting was still mostly AWOL. Yes, you can point to a couple of guys who posted an OPS well into the .700’s, but it was not enough to offset the several who were below .600, including 75 games of below-.400 “hitting” from Israel Pineda.
Pitching carried the day, with a dozen pitchers that turned in more than 20IP with an FIP below 4.00, highlighted by the unexpected, three-level ascendance of Brad Lord from Wilmington (albeit a single start) to Rochester for 12 uneven starts after 12 starts in Harrisburg, including nine consecutive quality starts from early May to mid-June.
The Senators finished dead last in runs, hits, homers, RBI, BA, OBP, SLG, and next-to-last in 2B and BB. The pitching was nearly the polar opposite: third in runs and walks allowed, the fewest HRs allowed, the sixth least hits allowed. The outlier was the second-fewest strikeouts.
The defense, as you’probably inferred, was excellent – 2nd in FPct. and fewest errors charged, and 4th in CS%, though 24 passed balls (17 by Pineda) was the most in the league.
With so much of the Wilmington players not knocking on the door, the team was on the old side – 24.1 vs. 23.6 for the bats, 24.7 vs. 24.5 for the arms, with 21-y.o. Andry Lara helping to drag that number down (averages are weighted by appearances).
For the first time in more than a decade, there were enough legitimate performances from age-appropriate-to-the-level (AATTL) players to have separate lists for both hitters and pitchers!
| TOP 4 BATS | TOP 4 ARMS |
| 1. Dylan Crews, OF .266 GPA, 15SB, 16BB in 51G |
1. Brad Lord, RHSP 1.40/3.05/1.03, 4HR in 70⅔ IP (12GS) |
| 2. Yoyo Morales, 1B/3B .259 GPA, .362 OBP, 33BB in 69G |
2. Jack Sinclair, RHRP 2.20/3.15/0.96, 10.2 K/9IP in 57⅔ IP (43G) |
| 3. Robert Hassell, OF .253 GPA, .357 OBP, 29BB in 61G |
3. Andrew Alvarez, LHSP 2.89/3.55/1.15, 9.0K/9IP in 53 IP (10GS) |
| 4. Brady House, 3B .246 GPA, 13HR, 75K in 75G |
4. Marquis Grissom Jr., RHRP 2.87/3.89/1.02, 1.72 BB/9IP in 31⅓ IP (27G) |
If I had gone the BA route and double-dipped, it’d have been Daylen Lile and Andry Lara who’d have been the repeats as the second-youngest bat and youngest arm. Both were in their age-21 season.
I’m quite well aware the stat that “popped” for most of the bats was walks, not homers or doubles. Unfortunately, House was the only AATTL player to have double-digit HRs and Andrew Pinckney was the only AATTL to hit 20 doubles. This should not be a surprise given the Nats’ struggles to develop power hitters.
If you’d like to see the full team stats, go here. Pitching data can be found here.
The stats absolutely back up what I was seeing every game on the island. Outstanding pitching and sub par hitting.
Good for Saenz to have a much-needed encouraging outing.
Good for Hassell to keep accumulating XBH.
74 F to 56 F is cause for parking at Panera in the leather chair with an endless cup of Joe
And kitchen sink cookie .
Luke what is it with having dogs where the timing of their need for night patrol coincides with a family of white tailed deer manifesting in one’s back yard . Leave it to the Boston to ruin the aha moment and chase after them .
I may be really digging Hassell and the 2025 Hassell hustle coming up at Nats park but I’m not going to buy a jersey cause it’s like when the guy gets the woman’s name on his arm as a tattoo then she dumps him .
2025 predictions : Jake Irwin no hitter .
Hassell 3 the stud to watch even more than Wood and Crews .
I share your optimism on Hassell and also understand the concern from other commenters on his potential. his development has been anything but linear but he barrels up pitches. it will be interesting to watch the AAA hurlers seeing whether he can turn on the inside heater.
Morales has lost a lot of his prospect shine, and wasn’t even listed in BA’s top 10 last week, but his inclusion here is a good reminder that his season wasn’t all that bad. And if you look at his results after he returned from the IL – it’s 136 PAs at AA with a wRC+ of 147. Still not quite as much game power as we’re hoping for (ISO of .122), but if we’re looking at Hassell’s AFL results as an encouraging sign and a possible revitalization of his value, Morales’s August and September should provide the same.
I was really surprised Morales didn’t get sent to the AFL. He was the perfect candidate to rebuild some of that value, especially coming off a decent end to the season.
With that said, Morales needs to hit for power, unlike Hassell, who has others tools (speed and defense) to keep his prospect floor elevated. Morales lacks all tools except the hit tool, and seems locked at 1B. Hitting .304/.412/.426 in his return from injury, while a huge improvement, still isn’t good enough to keep him as a prospect, when guys like Jesse Winker, Juan Yepez and Andres Chaparro are a dime a dozen.
I hope in the offseason he goes and trains with whoever James Wood works with, and avoids anyone recommended by the Nats, who have whatever the Midas Touch equivalent is of everything they touch turns into bad or weak contact.
Morales could more than hold his own at 3B which makes me think he can be an above average first baseman as well (we’ve seen that act). but at that position he will have to hit for some power so your overriding point is still valid.