Nats Name AFL Roster
The 2024 Rosters for the Arizona Fall League were finally revealed yesterday, including a septet of Nationals on the Salt River Rafters.
- LHP Matt Cronin
- RHP Michael Cuevas
- OF Robert Hassell III
- C Maxwell Romero Jr.*
- LHP Dustin Saenz
- RHP Chase Solesky
- 3B Cayden Wallace*
To make things easier, I have only denoted the players who are not Rule 5 eligible. As I wrote a year ago, the Nats followed the playbook:
Send a catcher, a few Rule 5 guys, a couple of guys who were hurt (always a large pool from which to pick), and one player that checks the prospect box.
With the Nats being the Nats, there’s some overlap here. But to say that this list in uninspiring, specious, or curious would be like saying water is wet. But before I go any further, happy birthday to Chase Solesky (today) and a belated one to Matt Cronin (last week). Both are now 27.
In all seriousness, I’m not sure what the benefit is to either of them (aside from another few paychecks) or the Nats. Of the pitchers, only Saenz had his regular season significantly shortened by injury (wait, what?). Any success increases the odds (however long) of being drafted in December. Is the Nats scouting so bad that the 230+ regular-season IP was not enough to make an evaluation?
Clearly, the prospect box is checked by Cayden Wallace to large extent and Robert Hassell to a small extent. Both are 23 and coming off injury-shortened seasons.
Anyway, not much else to say, aside from maybe this. Have at it in the comments…
Cuevas’ move to the bullpen resulted in fewer hits, more strikeouts but also more walks. overall not too shabby for a 23rd round pick. I don’t expect him to be added to the roster but will expect to be watching him in Rochester next year.
Cuevas must be an experiment as a bridge reliever down the road
Bridge as in 6-8 IP guy .
Anybody contemplate on any other FAs Rizzo could sign besides Soto who fits the “ Jayson Werth” impact leader guy in middle of lineup ?
See you in ten days , Luke .
Grand summer on your daily efforts
And you too boss man Todd .
And to all the blokes in the bleacher “ cheap seats “
Luke you made the comment about 1989 Pete Rose and Shazam he passes
Hunt for Red October . What a machine Sparky lead . Or better yet he just wrote out that lineup daily !
Corruption in sports that’s why they tossed Pete out of the game
He had dirt on high places
We’ve all scratched/banged our heads about what they’re doing with Matt Cronin. It’s sort of shocking that he’s now 27 and has never even smelled a cup of coffee.
Among field players, I predicted Wallace, Hassell, and Morales because of injury-shorted seasons, and perhaps Lile as a rising young talent. Not sure why Morales isn’t in this group, unless he’s not completely healthy.
Hassell and Wallace are both players who once were thought to have the talent to be MLB regulars but who haven’t really shown it yet. As we’ve noted, Millas (finally) started hitting in AZ two falls ago. It looked a bit fluky at first, but he hasn’t stopped. So fingers crossed that these guys will find something there.
After being thusly informed
One can say that the pitchers in AZ for Nats need a personal caddie thusly Romero , Jr . Not every left handed catcher can end up being Ted Simmons .
Adios , Patrick Corbin ( enjoy a non roster invite from the Yanx next spring lol)
Ty for 2019
But the opened cap space will make this winter interesting .
This past season proves what a difference a day or a year makes
White Sox losing 120 games after trading their ace to the Padres who have surprised so many two years from having Soto who is still a favorite subject matter here .
There are other fans who have followed both leagues with the talent available this winter to use Corbin’s old cap space
Haas and BC with opinions to pitch into the collective decision making process .
As Luke mentioned, “the list is uninspiring”! The team has its’ reasons for selecting certain (undeserved) players, but we may never know. The selection does not seem based on performance.
the whole concept of the AFL has been uninspiring for me. MLB could do so much more with the idea of a fall finishing league but of course that means letting go of a few more nickels so not likely.
FredMD, I completely agree that the AFL could be a lot more helpful as a “finishing league.” And considering the elevated interests in prospects, it would see that they could make more nickels off of it, too, by broadcasting the games, or at least streaming them.
One of the most significant issues is that they overstock the AFL rosters. Baseball is a game of rhythm and repetition, so guys only playing two or three times a week may actually hurt more than help.
You could add teams and shrink rosters, but another issue would continue to vex: innings limits on top arms. It’s not going to be a premiere league if guys aren’t hitting against top-flight pitching.
All of that said, the guys are still playing against better competition in the AFL than they are in the “instructional league.” Remember that year we were told that Antuna was “hitting bombs” in the instrux? Apparently his grandmother must have been pitching.
Kind of shocked Cavalli isn’t there, which implies to me he’s not ready for game situations at this point. 18 months, still just on 25-pitch sessions. Not promising.
Can’t think of too many others that would have made sense to send there. Maybe Morales?
Good mention of Cavalli. And no, not promising at all.
Cole Henry has been in deep witness protection as well.
Henry has never regained the pinpoint command that made him so valuable. maybe a symptom of the nerve damage associated with TOS
Henry also never regained the ability to throw more than 10 innings per month, clearly a symptom of TOS, which really looks like a career death sentence for pitchers.
Right now they seem to be trying about the only thing left to try with Henry — just shut him down for an extended period. Frankly, I didn’t understand why they were trying to have him throwing so soon in 2023. They did have the looming 40-man/Rule 5 decision on him, though. Of course now they have him on the 40-man, with no guarantee that he’ll even be able to pitch.
“When healthy,” Henry was an outstanding collegiate pitcher and likely would have been taken in the upper half of the first round if not for arm-health issues.
Hassell over Morales surprises me. without a “rehab” appearance I’d be nervous sending Cavalli.
Me too. I thought Morales was a shoo in, and Hassell a surprise, if only because he was sent in each of the past two years as well.
But on further reflection, this smacks to me of an attempt to revive Hassell’s prospect value and therefore trade market value. With the OF currently locked down for the next half decade with Young, Wood and Crews. Hassell is in the mix with Pinckney and Lile as a role-player, 4th OF type. But if Hassell can regain a bit of that prospect hype that had him in some lists as a top 20 prospect overall, then he’s much more valuable to the Nats as a trade candidate than anything else. We know the AFL is closely watched by scouts, so this is a better way than most to make sure as many other clubs can get a good look at him, and hope he impresses (post-post-hamate injury).
Meanwhile, as long as Morales hits, he’ll be in the majors ASAP. The Nats don’t seem convinced by Chaparro at 1B, so it’s only Yepez in Morales’ way from a starting position, which isn’t saying much. Whatever he does or doesn’t do in the AFL won’t change that.
I’m not nearly as sold as some on the idea that Young will be a long-term starter, despite his elite defense. His OPS+ is 83. For comparison, Senzel’s was 88, and they kicked him to the curb. Young also won’t take a walk (5.5%).
The other factor is that the Nats have invested heavily in outfielders: Hassell, Lile, Pinckney, Green, Vaquero, Cox, Hurtado, et al. At least one guy seems likely to emerge from that bunch who is a significantly better overall hitter than Young. Or they sign Soto. ; )
As for Hassell, I don’t think he’s being advertised for trade right now. Never say never, but they’d be selling very low on him. I would think that the young OF who would generate the most trade interest right now would be Lile.
Senzel was a terrible defender, and Young is literally the third best defender at any position in the game: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/fielding-run-value . Elite defense matters.
Altogether, Young is the Nats’ 2nd most valuable player (not hitter, player) according to both bWAR (2.7 WAR) and 4th most valuable according to fWAR (2.4 WAR). Twice as valuable as the much more heralded James Wood in less than twice the playing time.
And don’t dismiss the knock on effects on the young pitching staff. Young made dozens more outs that any other CFer would have let drop for extra bases, and allows the pitchers to throw more confidently knowing Young will catch anything hit his way.
But on top of that, let’s put aside Cox, Green and Vaquero, who struggled to hit .200 in A ball while striking out around 40% of the time, and Hurtado, who’s yet to play in the States yet. If you’re going to criticize Young’s offensive output of .253/.312/.330 in the majors, it’s only fair to apply the same standard to the prospects. And these are the alternatives (2024 stats):
Hassell: .241/.319/.328
Pinckney: .258/.329/.362
Lile: .262/.347/.388
Barely any better while facing minor league pitching. Plus, none of the above are going to be the 103rd best defender in baseball, much less the 3rd best.
You’re right, Young is at most a platoon player – and with the plethora of “good” OF prospects, a good platoon partner can easily be found. Hell, Wood and Crews could cover CF with a decent LF OF.
Hassell 3?!
A: .257/.317/.334, 85 OPS+
B: .284/.319/.343, 83 OPS+
A is Young, B is Ben Revere. We can do better. I certainly hope, out of all the OFs in the system, that we can do better. Right now I would bet on Lile, who had above-average numbers at A+ at age 21, in a tough hitter’s park and league.
Senzel? Ben Revere? These are such strange comparison points for Young.
To the extent defensive stats are often higher variance, I agree that Young is slightly less valuable than a player who produces similar value via a wRC+ of 120 and plays average defense in CF (eg Bleday), but it seems like you’re blowing that effect way way out of proportion.
Player C: .262/.337/.328, 90 wRC+
Also not a good baseball player, right?
Fortunately, for both Ozzie Smith (Player C) and Jacob Young, baseball is about a lot more than hitting.
But in Young’s short career (182 games), he’s been worth 3.5 WAR. That’s very good! Until someone can prove they’re capable of putting up more than 3 WAR per season in the outfield (something both Wood and Crews are currently struggling to do), Young’s place in CF should be cemented.
@Will – Good catch re Ozzie Smith. It’s felt so odd to look at these evaluations of Young that reduce his defensive value to “can play CF”. wRC+ ignores his base running too.
I also share your skepticism that the best of Hassell, Lile, etc will exceed the 3 WAR/600 standard. I don’t think any of those prospects are even 50/50 to become 1.5 WAR/600 players at this point. (Wood and Crews seem to me pretty likely to cross 3 WAR/600. Even in their age 22 years, they’re around 2.5. And I think their median projections improve significantly from here.)
Signing Soto is by far the most likely path to a situation where Young is the fourth most valuable outfielder on the team. But even that scenario – where you’d obviously rather have Soto-Crews-Wood over Wood-Young-Crews, if those are your only two choices – I think misses an important point. This team has huge holes in other parts of the lineup. Our DH’s ran a 70 wRC+ for the whole year! Why would you bench a gold glove defender with an 85 wRC+ when you could just move Wood or Soto to DH? (And even that’s assuming they don’t want to or can’t play 1B.)
Basically the only way Young gets kicked to OF4 is if we sign, trade for, or develop 3 stars who play 1B/DH/OF. Your mileage my vary, but I’m not holding my breath.
It’s all about good roster management and construction, and apologies that this begins to veer away from prospect talk.
Yes, upgrading Young to Soto in the OF is a big improvement, but comparatively, it’s the worst way to improve the team. For example, Soto is around a 6ish WAR/season player. I’m oversimplifying a bit, but to go from Young to Soto, you gain essentially 3 WAR/season (Young’s 3 WAR to Soto’s 6 WAR), for somewhere around $500m/$50m per year. Not ideal, but it doesn’t mean signing Soto is a bad idea.
If you plug Soto in at 1B (which is a question mark as to how good he’d be defensively). You’d go from the -0.6 WAR (!!) Nats 1B were collectively worth in 2024, to around 5 WAR that Soto would be worth there (factoring in the positional adjustments and assuming that he’d be a mediocre defender there), which is a 5.5 WAR improvement. A much better deal than shoehorning him into OF. (Using him at DH would be around a 4ish WAR improvement)
An alternative could be to move Wood to 1B, as he hasn’t looked at all like the plus defender he was scouted to be. But I still believe Wood has quite a bit of upside defensively, as he learns LF better. If he goes a couple more seasons with bad LF defence, then maybe it’s worth considering. With Soto, however, we have 7 seasons of evidence to prove that he is what he is, and he’ll always be a below average LF.
All that to say, with Alex Call and Stone Garrett emerging as seemingly very solid back up OFs, the Nats have a really good, projectable, cost-controlled OF for the next 5+ years. Yes, there’s reason to be excited by some of the other OFs in the system, but that’s a great thing, because it means they hold some trade value. The Dodgers, for example, did brilliantly by trading away two prospects, Ruiz and Gray, at their peak value, who were basically superfluous to the Dodgers at the time (with Will Smith locking down the starting C job, and a whole laundry list of extremely talented SP prospects coming through the system like Buehler, Gonsolin, Stone, May, Urias, etc.). The Nats shouldn’t wait until the prospect luster fully fades from guys like Green, Vaquero, Lile, etc., because they could be used to fill some glaring holes in the org, like C, SS, 3B, 1B, DH, instead of being a 7th choice OF.
Soto could plug one of those holes, but if we’re going to spend $50m+/year to plug that one hole, we’re going to need cheap, controlled prospects to fill many of the others. At the moment, we’re worryingly dependent on House and Morales turning very good major league players.