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Watchlist Reports Are Finished

Just a quick note to let folks know I’ve completed the player reports on the 2024 Watchlist. Given that it’s been another Sarah-Palin-doing-the-NYTimes-Crossword slow offseason, it seems late, but it’s not.

Alas, we are still waiting for word on who will be coaching for the affiliates this year or what game(s) will be televised… and we’re less than a week from pitchers and catchers reporting and/or finding out which players are in the “Best Shape of my Life.”

12 Commments

    1. Was reading a Q & A with Keith Law and he was asked about why Hassell was struggling so much at Harrisburg. He said the main issue is he is so weak physically that he was being overpowered by AA pitching.

      1. Interesting! Law is definitely more knowledgeable than me, but I don’t entirely buy that argument. For one, Hassell demonstrated solid power when he was with the Padres. His .167 ISO across a season and a half isn’t Herculean, but it’s solidly average. For a big league comparison, CJ Abrams’ ISO in 2023, where he hit 18 HR, was, coincidentally, exactly .167 too, and MLB’s average ISO is… .166. Yes, that’s not good for a corner outfielder, but it’s definitely not so bad that it prevents a player from hitting AA pitching.

        Instead, Hassell’s power basically disappeared the moment he joined the Nats org. His ISO for the Padres’ A+ team was .178 at the moment of trade. And then at the same level for Wilmington dropped to .026, an incredible decline that has never recovered. In AA, it rose a bit to .074, and ticked up again slightly in 2023 to .100, but still a far cry from his performance with the Padres.

        My theory is that it doesn’t have anything to do with Hassell’s weakness, but an ill-advised tweak to his swing coupled with a hamate bone that is still healing.

        Hassell’s problem since joining the Nats hasn’t been only power, but contact. His K% spiked by nearly 10%, from around 20% to around 30%. That doesn’t suggest weak contact, it suggests bad pitch recognition and NO contact. I distinctly remember reading an article shortly before or after the trade about how Hassell was tinkering with his swing, and I remember thinking “why on earth would a guy currently hitting .299 tinker with his swing?!” Anyway, I cannot for the life of me find that article/tweet, but I think Hassell’s abrupt decline is first linked to tinkering with his swing and then crippled by the hamate injury. A guy who looks “so weak he can’t hit AA pitching” screams “the hamate is still healing” to me. So if Hassell can adjust his swing back to whatever he was doing with the Padres, and his hand is 100% come ST, I think there’s hope for a nice bounceback. His AFL performance is worth some optimism. His power was no where to be seen (miniscule .058 ISO in the exceptionally hitter friendly AFL), but he was back to hitting for average (.290 AVG) and he cut his strikeouts down to “only” 25.6%.

  2. Hooray for the Watchlist! OK Luke, as you went through the research, what guys impressed you more than you thought they would, and which ones seem a bit over-hyped?

    1. Well, funny you should ask because I ended up moving Quintana to 1B as you have been campaigned for. When I started writing the essay for the “Notable Bats” I noticed he started taking walks at nearly triple the rate he did in 2022. Sorry, with so many of the watchlist guys striking out like Leisure Suit Larry that is more than just notable.

      I also cut down on the notables (there had been seven per, now it’s five) and one of the LHPs (Carmona) for the same reason: When my full attention was on it, I couldn’t come up with a good reason to justify their inclusion. In general, it’s proven out being more exclusive is the way to go.

      2. Can we sign Quintana up to teach plate discipline? (Although he did strike out 28% of the time.) He’s really going to have to find some power to keep progressing at a corner position, though. His SLG dropped 93 points from 2022, ISO down 60 points.

        That’s interesting about Hassell, both Law’s comment and Will’s reaction. I’ll add that there’s undoubtedly a psychological element too. When you’re widely named as the top prospect in a trade for a generational star, you’re no longer an obscure Padre prospect. Plus he got a significant injury and probably got promoted too soon. This next summer is a big one for him, so let’s hope he’s been healing and getting stronger. The Nats have so many outfielders in the pipeline now that he could get left behind quickly if he doesn’t step up. At the same time, though, the glare is now on Wood and Crews, not Hassell so much anymore.

  3. To be fair, even at the time of the Soto trade I thought that Hassell was considered more in the “nice addition” category for that trade than “centerpiece.” The two players who had already made their MLB debuts (Gore and Abrams) were the initial adds with James Woods being the most promising return at the prospect level. Or at least having the higher ceiling with perhaps a lower floor. Susana rounded out the trade, and was widely regarded as being the throw-in to add Josh Bell to the trade.

    1. Agree that Abrams amd Gore were the two headliners in the Soto trade. Abrams is only 10 months older than Hassell, and Abrams was playing in MLB at age 21. IIRC, going into the 2022 season, Baseball America ranked CJ as the best hit tool of all MLB prospects in 2022. MacKenzie Gore was the #3 pick in the 2017 MLB draft, and he was consistently a top 10 prospect until he made the majors with the Padres. Gore had made 14 MLB starts at the time of the trade.

      1. No doubt that Gore and Abrams were higher-profile parts of the trade, but they were considered MLB-ready. Among the prospects, Hassell was the top piece, ahead of Wood in every write-up.

  4. Keith Law is out with his system rankings:

    11. Washington Nationals

    Similar to the White Sox, the Nats have a top-heavy system with a few potential stars but not a ton of depth, quickly sliding into reliever/extra guy territory even before we get out of their top 10. They have four guys on the top 100 and I’d bet at least three of them turn into above-average regulars in their roles, which is worth a whole lot even if the rest of the system doesn’t produce that much major-league value.

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    I wouldn’t dispute the overall ranking, although I think he sells the potential of the system’s depth somewhat short. Several of us have commented here that we feel like the system is the deepest is has been in a good while. Of course it was gosh-awful just three years ago, so that’s sort of relative.

    Beyond the four he ranked (Crews, Wood, House, and Cavalli), there are a number of guys with the potential to be regulars / starting pitchers: Hassell, Green, Morales, Lile, Vaquero, Pinckney, Bennett, Sykora, and Susana. Millas, Lipscomb, Young, maybe Pineda, are already close to being MLB depth quality. Not all will make it. But it’s been a good while since we’ve had so many with a chance to make it. And I think it’s a stronger crop than it was last year with the addition of Crews, Morales, Sykora, and Pinckney.

  5. Some potential actual REAL news from Kiley McDaniel, discussing Cole Henry: “He was limited by thoracic outlet syndrome last season but has a clean bill of health for 2024.” Let’s sure hope it’s true.

    Some interesting things in his Nat rankings if you have ESPN+: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/39444466/2024-mlb-prospect-rankings-national-league-team-list#wsh

    Cavalli is completely missing but also not listed among the graduates. What gives? Meanwhile, he seems higher on Green than anyone else, still has him #4 on the Nat list.

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