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Offseason Update: Dec. 6, 2023

After today’s Rule 5 draft, things will slow down considerably. Love to be wrong, but I’ve been doing this a while…

The Cleveland Guardians were the winners of the second MLB Draft Lottery, after the Nats messed things up by “winning” twice. Fortunately, they did not “lose” their best possible draft position of #10 in the 2024 Draft.

Today, the Nats will pick 5th in the Rule 5 Draft. They passed on taking anyone in the MLB phase from 2011 to 2021 (no draft in 2020) before taking Thad Ward a year ago.

Will they make an MLB-phase pick again? As noted in the comments, picking a pitcher – which seems almost a lock, given the Nats’ predilections – and stashing him on the I.L. or the bullpen is not difficult, as was proven with Ward. There certainly are some guys that fit the Nats’ m.o. (scroll to “The Injury Risks”).

In transaction news, the Nats re-signed UT Erick Mejia, LHP Joe LaSorsa was outrighted to Rochester, and Roddery Muñoz was claimed off waivers by the Pirates. Odds are, more signings will come later this month – it’s difficult to tell because the last true “normal” offseason was 2018-19.

20 Commments

  1. For those with morbid curiosity, here the MLB.com overview of top guys available for Rule 5:

    https://www.mlb.com/news/players-of-interest-2023-rule-5-draft

    Meh. What doesn’t get mentioned is that there are usually a bunch of similar guy available as minor-league free agents, with no MLB roster requirement.

    It seems easier to make the jump — at least for a limited bullpen role — as a pitcher than as a hitter. Blake Rutherford tore up the minors but couldn’t hit a lick in the Show. But please stop picking up stiffs like Jeter Downs and Lucius Fox who didn’t hit a lick in the minors either.

    Among Rule 5 pitchers, Will has lobbied for Cole Wilcox. He was in top-10 pick conversation in 2018 but had a firm commitment to Georgia. He and Denaburg were often mentioned together among the best prep arms. (“Best prep arms” are sort of like Santa and the Tooth Fairy.)

    If the Nats want to take a pitcher, that’s fine. Considering the dreck who has come and gone in their bullpen over the last couple of years, they could do worse (and have).

    What many of us haven’t understood over the last few years is why the Nats haven’t been taking guys in the minor-league portion of Rule 5. Again, maybe they’ve thought there were better options in signing MiLB free agents, although they haven’t had much success with that.

    1. This Braves blog actually has a much more interesting list than MLB.com’s: https://www.batterypower.com/2023/12/5/23986329/mlb-rule-5-draft-names-to-watch-atlanta-braves

      If I were Rizzo, I’d take at least two pitchers: first, Wilcox, then use him as the 5th SP, then move him to a relief role later in the season (assuming he sticks). Having thrown 106 IP last year, coming off TJ in 2021, his workload would be a concern as a regular in the rotation.

      I’d then go after a reliever. There’s no shortage of SPs that could be converted to relief. But there’s also no shortage of solid relief options, especially compared to the dearth of quality relief options we currently have in AAA.

      But what might be most interesting is whether the Nats might opt to use the draft to find an interesting 1B/DH/corner OF piece (and even 3B). Rizzo and Martinez have both recently spoken about wanting to add a 1B and corner OF. There’s always a few interesting bat-only players available in the R5 draft. For example, Malcom Nunez is a corner IF that might be interesting. Only 22, he’s still very much a work in progress, but has hit .257/.356/.431 across multiple levels (culminating in AAA) over his past 2 seasons. It might be possible to stash him on the roster across 3B, 1B and DH. I don’t think it’s likely, but given that so few positions are nailed down at the moment (basically only C, SS and RF), the Nats have a lot of flexibility to get creative.

    2. A small snarkle voice induce this am about Nats going for a small Mario Mendoza BA toolsy
      Like a bachelor fond of red heads
      Add another one to the list
      Lol

    4. “But please stop picking up stiffs like Jeter Downs and Lucius Fox who didn’t hit a lick in the minors either.”

      You jinxed it, KW.

      1. LOL, I sure did, didn’t I? Nasim Nuñez, with the stunning 79 wRC+ at AA. Obviously the 52 SBs stands out (70 in 2022), but as the old saying goes, “You can’t steal first base.” Supposedly a “dazzling defender” too:

        https://www.mlb.com/prospects/marlins/nasim-nunez-683083

        The bar of looking less overwhelmed in an MLB batter’s box than Fox is low, but this pick is obviously quite a flyer (in more ways than one!).

        Very good to see the Nats active in the minor-league portion of the draft. It can’t hurt. The pitcher picks make sense, but taking an OF is curious. They are aware that they can only put three on the field at a time at each level, right?

  2. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Nats recently shaved a couple guys off the 40 man… I expect a couple of pick ups and rule five

    1. If the Nats didn’t take two guys last year, when they were about as bad as you can be, they’re not taking two this year. Hopefully at least one of those roster spots is going to a free-agent, even a third-tier one.

      I’m extremely skeptical of a Rule 5 hitter being of much use/quality. Even the best of the best minor-league lifers are going to be the level of Clint Robinson or Joey Meneses. As it is, they’re facing a decision on Carter Kieboom, who is out of options but still looks about Rule 5 quality. Same with Joan Adon on the pitching side.

    2. Ok folks
      As the Doobie Bros Listen to the Doctor fades leading into the theme song of Bo Derek film 10
      ( draft position)
      I guess cue Jeff Beck playing Bo- lero!
      Luke is correct we may not know the ornaments added to the farm rosters until they are revealed from that tight hugged top secret holding by Nats brass .
      We all knew Juan Soto would end up in Bronx
      Let’s see what the new faces in Front office staff do with farm roster additions
      I am only human , Luke
      Not a bot

  3. the grass always looks greener…

    if all the Nats have to show for the winter meetings is a rule 5 pickup or two, there will be hell to pay in the blogosphere. if we don’t lose Lara I’ll be satisfied

  4. Wonder if the package the Padres will get from the Yankees for Soto will be better than what we got

    1. The Yankees would be hard pressed to compile a package comparable to the Padres’. Wood and Hassell were top 100 prospects, and Gore and Abrams were recent top 100 graduates, and Susana a fringe top 100 prospect.

      At the moment, the Yankees have exactly one top 100 prospect: Jasson Dominguez, who is injured and expected to miss the majority of the 2024 season. Then there’s Everson Pereira, who’s most comparable to Susana, as a fringe top 100 prospect. Among the recently graduated top 100 prospects, they have Volpe and Peraza, but I’d be surprised if they were willing to trade them, as central parts of their mini rebuild.

      Still, it will be interesting to see what kind of return the Padres can get. Even 50% of what the Nats got could be extremely valuable.

    3. Yankee farm hands tend to get hyped then get dumped into other farms where they get lost in the mix

  5. I know the Nats pick 10th in the 2024 amateur draft first round but do they also pick 10th in the rounds following the first round? Anyone know about this detail.

      1. Thanks Will. I guess that means we would pick 4th or 5th in rounds 2 thru 20 which should be good.

  7. Glad to see the Nats picked up Yepez. He was horrible last year for the Cards in mlb and aaa but represents a potential upgrade over Matt Adams.

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