Vote for Your Favorite Bats
With another week to go before the Winter Meetings, it’s time to turn another ritual to fill the void. For this, I’m pretty sure I’ll get enough participation. The next one… are there even 10 pitchers that remotely qualify?
For those of you who don’t know the deal, it’s what they call it when they hand out the cards in a card game you can email enfieldmass-top10bats[at]yahoo[dot]com (link will open your preferred email client) or submit them in comments.
In a few days, I’ll compile the votes and weight them in reverse order (#1 = 10 points, #2 = 9 points… #9 = 2 points, #10 = 1 point). When it feels like I’ve got a sizable number of submissions (or it’s time to make a post), I’ll update this to close the polls. If you’re from Florida or Georgia, we don’t care if anyone brings you food or water while you make your vote.
A reminder that “Bat” is shorthand for “position player” even if the N.L. has joined the 20th century and the sky has not fallen. Thus, you probably don’t need to consider defense even if they’re catchers, since the Nats don’t mind passed balls and wild pitches if it means more offense (see: Ramos, Wilson; Read, Raudy).
This will create the 13th annual NationalsProspects.com Top 10 Bats list.
Alas, I don’t have any pithy remarks about the free agents the Nats won’t be pursuing. The CW is that as both a last-place team and one entering its fourth year of rebuilding, FA signings won’t happen until the Big Nats are over the .500 hump and looking to hit that 85-90 win mark.
Tier 1
1. James Wood
2. Dylan Crews
3. Brady House
Big gap to Tier 2
4. Yohandy Morales
Big gap to Tier 3
5. Drew Millas
6. Cristhian Vaquero
7. Daylen Lile
8. Trey Lipscomb
9. Andrew Pinckney
10. Robert Hassell
Unrated: Jacob Young
Honorable mention (approximately in this order): Green, Baker, de la Rosa, Cruz, Pineda, E. Cooper, McKenzie, Nunez, Mota, Acevedo, White
Jacob Young gets an unrated, which is a bit of a cop out, but my rating of him depends almost entirely on whether he can play passable CF. His bat is never going to play in a corner OF position, but early signs suggested his defence was more than adequate in CF in DC, which goes entirely against scouting reports on him. If he can indeed play decent CF, then he’d fall around #6. But if he’s a corner OF, then he’s in the honorable mentions (or maaayybe 10th).
I also debated a long time about keeping Green in the top 10 on reputation alone. But when I thought about it, Andy Acevedo too had a big reputation and did nothing to justify it, and I didn’t for a second consider placing him above any of the names in the top 10. In fact, the two players have disturbingly similar ’23 stats, so in the interest of equality, both make HMs.
Hope I didn’t miss any big names…
My least favorite bat are those from Wuhan !
You know I have Hassell as the Hoss !! But no Little Joe on a pallamino !
I like Will’s list. Put me down for that list. On another topic, I like Daylen Lile’s bat but with all our OUTFIELD prospects would try to move him to 2nd BASE.
Well us ole Ex- po fans recall a RF shifted to behind plate with his infinity number 8
Garrrry Carter
Cue voice of old Phillies announcer .
Yes Luke I cringe in holiday season when Mariah Perr ri- yah Carey songs play !
1. Crews 2. House 3. Wood 4. Morales5. Hassell 6. Green 7. Vaguero 8. Lile 9. Pinckney 10. Lipscomb.
Dang. I like Will’s list, too. I might move Lipscomb and Pinckney ahead of Lile, but that’s just reshuffling. Just to be different I think I’ll do that. I’ll also move Young onto the list because of his improvement last season. It frustrates me that I’m putting it where Will extrapolated him (#6), but after looking at the list I have to agree. So:
1. Wood
2. Crews
3. House
4. Morales
5. Millas
6. Young
7. Vaquero
8. Lipscomb
9. Pinckney
10. Lile
This one is fairly easy, the arms list should be “fun”.
1. Wood
2. Crews
3. House
4. Morales
5. Millas
6. Young
7. Lipscomb
8. Lile
9. Vaquero
10. Hassell
HM: Pinckney, Green, Pineda, Baker
Arms list:
1. Missed last season
2. Pitched hurt last season
3. Missing this season
4. Probably getting hurt next season
5. Can throw the ball through a wall but can’t hit the broad side of it
6. Looks really good in a uniform
7. Promoted well beyond his capability
Yeah, that list is going to be tough.
I’m wrestling with a couple of issues, and Will touched on one of them. Young and Millas are great stories, but I can’t see them as MLB starting regulars, and I think the Nats have (maybe) 10 other guys who, if the stars all align (spoiler: they won’t), have the possibility to be regulars. So for now I’m still going to rank guys like Green and Hassell despite their struggles.
The other debate is more fun: who’s the “greatest” of them all among Wood, Crews, and House? Will they all REALLY become stars? Or will we look back in a few years and feel silly for ranking a Robles ahead of a Soto? Crews has better contact, Wood more power, and House a good mixture.
Without further ado:
1. Wood
2. Crews
3. House
4. Morales
5. Pinckney
6. Lile
7. Lipscomb
8. Hassell
9. Vaquero
10. Green
I seem to be higher on Pinckney than most, but that’s fine. Just a hunch. He has all the tools, if he can just handle the off-speed stuff (which can be said of basically everyone else on this list). The one guy I didn’t rank who I still think has it in him to be an MLB regular, despite real struggles this year, is T.J. White. That was only his age-19 season.
A reminder: at age 22, Michael A. Taylor was repeating Potomac (A+), and Souza started his age-23 season at Hagerstown (A) after nearly/sorta quitting. Things click later for some than they do for others.
(And yes, seven of my top ten are outfielders. Methinks that a trade or three might happen sooner or later.)
I tend to give a boost to guys like Millas and Young, who aren’t necessarily the most talented prospects, but have sustained and demonstrated success at the higher levels. In fact, Young and Millas have already each contributed more to the Nationals than anyone else on the list. They could retire tomorrow and be guaranteed to have been more successful than like 90% of the players listed. I suppose that counts for something!
And just a particular note on Millas, since I’ve already referred to Young, do I think he’ll hit .286/.375/.464 like he did in his short stint in 2023? No. But the average MLB catcher hit .236/.303/.392 in 2023. Do I think Millas can hit something close to that? Yes. His plate discipline alone causes his “floor” to be a lot higher than most catchers. The bigger question marks are 1) can he hit for average? Even though a MLB catcher doesn’t need to to have a long career, 2) Can he hit for power? Again, the average catcher only slugs .392, so you don’t need a ton to be above average, and 3) Is his defense as good as reputed? Perhaps I’m just jaded by Ruiz being much worse than advertised, but this is what I think may be Millas’ biggest stumbling block.
In general, I find these unheralded prospects some of the most interesting. I haven’t completely given up hope on Jake Alu yet, but Davis Schneider for the Blue Jays was an even better story. He never even featured on any top 30+ lists for the Jays, and then reached the majors and produced 2 WAR in 2 months. When you look back at his minor league career, you have to wonder how did this guy not get any attention?
Ruiz had 18 homers and 24 doubles in 136 games at age 24 (he’s younger than Millas). There were only nine catchers who had more homers, and only two who had over five more. Yes, he could still improve. He has an interesting combo of low K rate/low walk rate/awful BABIP. I interpret that to mean that he’s swinging at a lot of pitches that would be balls and putting them into play for weak outs.
I’m not putting Millas down for being a potentially good backup catcher. That’s quite a useful commodity. I’m just hoping that the other guys on the list can turn out to be better.
The other useful thing to note about Millas is that he didn’t start figuring things out until late in his age-24 season, in the AFL last year. His multi-level OPS rose 153 points from 2022 to 2023. Things click later for some than others.
If Ruiz’s defense remains as bad in 2024 as it was in 2023, I would hope there will be a discussion about whether Ruiz’s future remains behind the plate, or at the very least that he’d see more starts at DH.
I don’t really know what to make of Ruiz’s offense in 2023. It was kind of all over the place. His overall production wasn’t anything special. While he did have a good amount of HR, that’s partly driven by playing more than all but 4 catchers. His .149 ISO was below the league average for catcher (.156) and was 28th of 45 catchers with at least 200 plate appearances. However, his advanced stats were really solid, and point to an incredibly unlucky season. He underperformed his “expected” stats, like xwOBA, quite substantially, and had very good batted ball numbers, so there’s good reason to expect a bounceback next season.
I’m not writing Ruiz off just yet, especially with the very strong second half he had. But it’s hard to understate just how bad his defensive numbers were. With 1B currently vacant without any relief in sight, it’s not exactly a problem to give Ruiz some reps there and at DH to keep his bat in the lineup, while seeing whether Millas’ and Adams’ 2023s were the real deal or a mirage.
If only we could have so many young options at other positions!
We’ve commented often about frustrating things with Nats’ player development, and that has continued at the MLB level as well. Ruiz clearly needs continued refinement behind the plate, just as Garcia does at 2B. Both made the majors at a young age so didn’t get the full developmental experience in the minors. It’s the same at the plate, where they both need more coaching. I don’t dispute that at all.
Ruiz was +7.0 defensive fWAR in 2022 but -7.2 in the same stat in 2023. Did he actually regress that much? Are defensive stats bizarrely finicky? Or perhaps a little of both . . .
my ten best match Will’s except for Green and Ochoa Leyva in and Lipscombe and Vacquero out.
with the Ruiz signing, Millas’ position is backup catcher, he hits plenty for that role and his defense is outstanding.
Young is a great story but he needs to be in a AAA lineup every day in 2024
FredMD, I know you actually watch a number of the games, so I’m curious about what you see in Ochoa Leyva. Not criticizing, just curious. He’s certainly built like a tank. With his Canadian background, he probably hasn’t had the year-round experience that so many other kids have had these days.
I’ve yet to see him play, but only 19, decent walk rate, good size with athletic ability to play SS (albeit a bit sloppily).
I had him at number 10 and that’s as much due to my reservations on Lipscombe and Vacquero than over the top on him. will be anxious to actually watch the games in ’24.
Fair enough about Ochoa Leyva. I was intrigued with him when they drafted him. It seems a little concerning that they’ve yet to move him up from the complex, though.
Vaquero seems to have good plate discipline, good speed, and great love by the prospect gurus. We’ll see how it translates to full-season ball this year. It sounds bad to say, but based on the hype about him since before he signed, it almost seems like he has no place to go but down in the rankings. It’s totally unfair to point out that Soto and Harper were already in the majors at his age now, and yet that’s the level of hype that surrounded him.
My hope is that the hype about Wood and Crews will grant Vaquero, Green, and Hassell a little more anonymity and time to develop. We’ll see.
1. Wood
2. Crews
3. House
4. Morales
5. Vaquero
6. Millas
7. Lile
8. Young
9. Green
10. Pinckney
HMs to Lipscomb and Hassell, in that order.
It was hard for me to rank within 1-3, 5-7 and 8-12, but pretty big gaps for me at those breaks.