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And Now We Wait…

For the first time since youknowwhen, we have a bit of a gap between the end of the minors and the beginning of the Arizona Fall League. Rather than just leave up the last post like an outdated flyer on a bulletin board, here’s a post to hold down the fort until something newsworthy comes along.

Otherwise, enjoy your National Pancake Day festivities…

21 Commments

  1. Thanks again Luke for yet another (13th!) season of excellent coverage. It’s required daily reading on my end, and very much appreciated that you create this space for us to discuss the minutiae of the Nats farm system.

  3. While we wait . . . here’s a quick back-of-the-envelope list (so I may have missed a few) of guys who will be Rule 5-eligible this winter unless added to the 40-man:

    Pitchers: Cole Henry, D.J. Herz, Mitchell Parker, Andry Lara, Michael Cuevas, Holden Powell, Zach Brzykcy

    Position players: Kevin Made, Roismar Quintana, Brady Lindsly, Paul Witt

    1. (Newly eligible this year. There are many who are carryovers as well, but none who have made a dramatic case to be protected.)

        1. I don’t know of specific examples, but I’ve heard that it is actually easier to stash Rule 5 picks who are coming off injury because you can carry them on the IL for most/all of the summer and not have them on your active roster.

          I would be surprised if they don’t protect Henry. If they don’t, that isn’t a good sign about what they really think of his arm health.

          I see Herz as a given and Parker as likely. Lara wouldn’t make much sense, but his situation is similar to that of Adon when they protected him.

          Despite their need for relief assets, I don’t think they will protect Brzykcy. The Braves left a good relief prospect, Victor Vodnik, who was already at AAA, unprotected last winter and no one took him. (They traded Vodnik to the Rox at the trade deadline.)

          1. An example: the Braves took Dan Winkler in 2014 even though he had Tommy John surgery in June of that year. That enabled the Braves to keep him on the injured list while he rehabbed in 2015, eventually making his big-league debut in September of that season.

  5. Luis Garcia might have saved his career with his past two weeks. Since being re-promoted, he’s hit .310/.355/.517. On the whole, it’s been a very disappointing season for him, but with how poorly he played in AAA after his demotion, I was worried we might not see him in DC again, at least in a starting role.

    What I find really interesting, though, is the narratives (justly or unjustly) about Garcia compared to many of our other young hitters.

    Player A: 25 and 1 month, .252/.302/.397, very poor defensively
    Player B: 23, .245/.301/.416, average defensively
    Player C: 23 and 4 months, .266/.301/.383, below average defensively

    You probably worked it out, but A is Ruiz, B is Abrams and C is Garcia. Yet, due to prospect fatigue or came-from-another-org hype, or whatever, Ruiz and Abrams are talked about as cornerstones of the Nats’ future, while patience has run out on Garcia.

    1. Speaking of turnarounds, it looks like Lane Thomas’ fairy tale story has turned into a pumpkin. Over his career before this season, he hit .237/.314/.412. Then he caught fire and hit a remarkable .302/.351/.514 in his first three months this season, which firmly planted him on many hot stove reports as the trade deadline approached. Well, since the start of July, he’s hit .232/.281/.420, worse than his previous career average.

      Did we miss the window to trade him at peak value? Probably. But who knows if anyone was offering any decent value for him in July. But with Wood primed to reach the majors next season, Garrett and Robles primed to return from injury, and Crews, Hassell and Pinckney looming on the not-so-distant horizon, I’m not sure Thomas will even retain his starting spot for very long next season.

      Speaking of selling at peak value. Did anyone else notice that Jeimar Candelario hit a mere .237/.324/.449 with the Cubs? It’s especially jarring, because he was red-hot for the Cubs immediately after the trade, hitting .485 in his first 9 games there. But hit .141/.242/.341 (27 g) since that mini-streak, and then got injured, and has been out for the past two weeks (might return this week). I’ll happily accept Herz in that swap!

      2. Give me a break with Lane Thomas turning into pumpkin. Wow.

        Why are the first three months of Lane Thomas’ MLB season suddenly not relevant? Thomas’ BABIP in the 2nd half show he has been exceptionally unlucky at .250. His power numbers are better in the 2nd half and his K rate is the same. Baseball is high variance sport which is why numbers over a full season are the most important. Thomas has tools which have translated to MLB success.

        As mentioned above, he has a plus plus arm, and is the Nats first 20 HR/20 SB player since Soriano 17 years ago. Realize this site touts prospects, but many here love to downgrade the young players that have made it to the bigs with the idea that middling AA prospects are equal to or better than MLB players. Most have no clue how hard that jump is.

        Lane Thomas has improved from last year, and at 28, is in his baseball prime.

        The players identified in your post haven’t even had marginal success at AA.

        You have got be kidding to think that Hassell has flashed anything over the past two seasons to approach Thomas; Hassell has struggled for a season and a half with AA pitching, and he has no pop.

        Pickney? He has 17 AA at bats. He is going to challenge Lane Thomas for MLB at bats any time soon. Please.

        Crews. Dylan Crews slugged .278 at Harrisburg. Are you going to claim he turned into pumpkin?

        Lets wait until any of these guys prove than can succeed above A ball, before projecting a challenge to Lane Thomas.

    2. good statistical comparison but I’ve always suspected something else with Garcia beyond stats. DM mentioned that they wanted him to go down and work on his preparation for each game. I recall his rookie year him clowning around in pregame warmups a bit more that what I would expect from a rookie. but I could be off base here.

      all three of them could stand to walk a bit more though nothing in their developmental stats says they will

    3. Although he has his issues defensively, I don’t think Ruiz is very poor in that regard. And he has, at times, shown potential to be at least an average catcher.
      Abrams, in my opinion, is above average defensively.
      Garcia is inconsistent but at times has been spectacular. I’m not sure how to categorize him.

  6. @Will: Context matters in analyzing “Players A, B, and C.” Player C is producing worse offensive numbers than the other two at a position where offense is more of a premium. Comparing overall production to Player B is fairly silly; Abrams is leading the Nats in rWAR (3.5) and is 3rd on the team in fWAR (2.2). Garcia is at 0.8 and 0.1. After a brief improvement early in the season in his plate discipline and walk rates he has since regressed and there have been questions about his conditioning. He’s a frustrating player to watch.

    1. Yep. The big concern with Garcia is he too much of defensive liability to even be a long-term option at 2nd base..

    2. True, positions matter a lot, but between SS, C and 2B, the difference as great as you’d think.
      League average by position this year:
      C: .236/.303/.393
      SS: .245/.308/.395
      2B: .252/.320/.397
      Compared against actual premium bat positions:
      RF: .252/.326/.432
      1B: .254/.331/.431

      But it’s also why Garcia, who plays the most offensively minded position, needs to produce more with his bat than the others. Still, it’s interesting to see how similar their offensive production has been, while the narrative around the three has been rather different. Has there been any by the Nats about Ruiz’s poor defensive conditioning this season? Someone might need to light a fire under him too. On the bright side, at catcher we have a few back up plans if Ruiz doesn’t turn things around next season. At 2B, after Alu’s failed audition, we don’t really have anyone to compete with Garcia. I guess Baker, but he hasn’t really done anything since he got injured. Lipscomb, maybe too, but he’ll also have pretty a wide open shot at 3B.

      Anyway, glad to provoke some discussion. It’s always interesting to learn through disagreement 😉

  7. Every rebuild has its Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledges who can tantalize on certain days but are long forgotten by the time the team gets good again. (Sorry if I activated anyone’s PTSD with those mentions.) Garcia reminds me of those guys (who actually had better numbers than Garcia). Hope I’m wrong. Yes, the calendar still says that he’s young, but he’s completing his seventh season of professional baseball. And he’s out of options. When you’re out of options, you’re no longer “young” in terms of your future.

  8. Lipscomb isn’t going to get a wide open shot at 3b. Vargas is the placeholder there until House and/or Morales are ready.

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