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Keith Law Ranks the Nats’ Top 20 Prospects

We’re edging toward the time in the offseason when the end is in sight but still have to endure waiting.

Unfortunately, Keith Law gets the “meh” treatment because he’s among the last instead of the first, which is kind of a shame because he’s arguably the best because he does not parrot the front offices, like Baseball America and MLB Pipeline.

Without further ado…

  1. James Wood, OF
  2. Elijah Green, OF
  3. Robert Hassell, OF
  4. Cade Cavalli, RHP
  5. Brady House, IF
  6. Jarlin Susana, RHP
  7. Cole Henry, RHP
  8. Crithian Vaquero, OF
  9. Jeremy De La Rosa, OF
  10. Jake Bennett, LHP
  11. Jake Irvin, RHP
  12. Jackson Rutledge, RHP
  13. Armando Cruz, SS
  14. Andry Lara, RHP
  15. Roismar Quintana, OF
  16. Jeter Downs, 2B
  17. Daylen Lile, OF
  18. T.J. White, OF
  19. Jake Alu, UT
  20. Jose Ferrer, LHP

Why the bold and italics? To make the point that a 1/5th of the list has been acquired since last July.

A few other nuggets from Law’s article, that might not have been in his Top 100 story last week…

…Crithian Vaquero’s nickname is “The Phenomenon.” Now how much would you pay to hear Mike Tyson read that last sentence?

…Bennett should make AA this year, but needs to find a pitch to get lefties out; unusual for a LHP, no?

…Irvin is probably bullpen-bound and/or may develop another Nats elbow, given that his mechanics haven’t changed all that much.

…Downs may be on his third organization, which may be part of the reason why he’s stalled, i.e., he needs a change of scenery and someone to fix his pull-happy tendency. Not stated, is that this is more on Downs’s talent than Washington’s (non-existent) track record for fixing non-injured reclamation projects (not that its injured track record is any good).

…Alu could see time in MLB this season if for no other reason than the Nats have zero upper-minors depth at 3B and 2B. Not stated, but we all know, is Washington’s love for guys who can play both IF and OF.

28 Commments

  1. On Hassell, I’ve begun seeing this trend, where prospect evaluators talk about Hassell not having much upside, while at the same time describing a player with insanely good upside. Law is perhaps most straightforward about it, describing him as a “high-floor, lower-ceiling guy, without superstar upside but with a very good chance to be a solid regular for a long time.” But then goes on to say he is a “30-doubles, 15-homers guy, although contact and getting on base will always be his predominant skills as a hitter. He’s an above-average runner who’s been a high-percentage base stealer in his two years in the minors (87 percent) and plays 55 defense in center”

    To me, he sounds a heck of a lot like Lorenzo Cain with slightly worse defence, but slightly more power. Or Starling Marte with less speed but better plate discipline. Were either of these guys “superstars”? I guess not. But there’s a pretty wide gulf between “superstar” and “solid regular”, Cain and Marte being great examples of this. For example, Cain and Marte both had their first full season in 2012, the same as Bryce Harper, a “real” “superstar”. From 2012-2018, the period of team control, Harper was worth 29.3 WAR, Cain 26.6 and Marte 21.4. If that’s what Hassell’s future as a “solid regular” is, then give me 26 of these kind of guys over any one “superstar”.

    1. Will, I’ve had a lot of similar thoughts re Hassell. You expressed them well. As I’ve noted before, I’m a Wood fan, but at the time of the trade, EVERY recap had Hassell ahead of Wood. The sudden universal acclaim for Wood, who although the size of a mountain only managed 12 homers last season, is surprising.

      Hassell had 10 homers in 75 games before the trade (the same number as Wood). He claims that the hamate injury really sapped his power. I still think there’s a chance he can inch into 20-25 HR power. But if it’s 15-HR power with consistent contact, I’ll take it. The comp I’ve put on his floor is Adam Eaton, who had quite a successful MLB career. Or, sticking to CF, Brandon Nimmo just got a huge contract despite only reaching double digits in HRs twice in his career. I’m pretty sure that Hassell has more power than Nimmo.

    2. Interesting to see how two orgs young starters mature along the season : the Nats and the Tigers .

    4. A return to the Bay Area might reenvigorate Joe Ross in SF where Giants know how to rehabilitate refresh and reboot

  2. As co-chair of the T.J. White fan club here is what Law wrote about him.

    TJ White, OF
    Age: 19 | 6-2 | 210 pounds
    Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
    Drafted: No. 143 in 2021

    “White was the Nats’ fifth-rounder in 2021 as a switch-hitting corner outfielder with plus power from a furious swing and a dubious approach, so his year as an 18-year-old in Low A was promising, with a .258/.353/.432 line, a 27 percent strikeout rate and an 11.5 percent walk rate. For a guy who could easily have been a high school senior, this is a pretty good year, although he does have to keep hitting as he moves up. He may also end up sliding to first base given the Nats’ other outfield depth.

    1. Today I learned White is a switch hitter!

      And his splits are actually pretty good. He hit .254/.343/.432 from the right side and .286/.407/.429 from the left this past season

  3. With all the emphasis on age, I looked up the ages of the 11 outfielders with some chance to make a splash in the Nats’ system (7 of whom Law has ranked). This is youngest to oldest, with highest level of pro experience.

    Cox 5/11/04 (FCL)
    Vaquero 9/13/04 (DSL)

    Green 12/4/03 (FCL)
    White 7/23/03 (A)
    Quintana 2/6/03 (FCL)

    Lile 11/30/02 (FCL)
    Wood 9/17/02 (A)
    de la Rosa 1/16/02 (A+)

    Hassell 8/15/01 (AA)
    McKenzie 5/16/01 (A)

    Young 7/27/99 (A)

    White really stands out on this list with age + level. The lost season has left Lile playing catch-up. If Vaquero really is that great, I don’t know why he wasn’t in the FCL. If he spends all of 2023 in FCL, he’ll be behind Cox’s progression.

    Of course despite all the emphasis on performing while young, the whole point is to fully develop and make the majors. See Michael A. Taylor spending two full seasons at Potomac, and Souza wandering multiple times between Hagerstown and Potomac. Several of these guys are prone to whiffs, which usually becomes the big roadblock to advancement.

    1. Oops, I’ve got Cox and Vaquero reversed. And Vaquero technically will be one age-level age younger than Cox, despite only a four-month difference.

  4. I’ve written a fair amount in response to Law’s list on Todd’s site (Nationals Arms Race) so won’t repeat myself too much. I agree with Luke in liking Law because he doesn’t parrot what the Nats’ front office tells them. I think he reflects what other front offices see, as he used to work in one. If you want to know what an opposing front office sees in terms of trade value, here it is. Don’t believe BA.

    Also, Law lives in Wilmington. It will be VERY interesting to get his take over the next couple of years as most of the Nats’ future progresses through Delaware.

    1. Yeah, he said last year that the Nats didn’t have anybody at Wilmington that he wanted to see.

      Not anymore!

    2. KW
      Maybe some of us should seek him out and press his take on things and sway his ability to see things in different paradigms and also
      Listen to the Doctor ( Doobie Bros )!!! Fred MD!

  5. I’m of the thinking that if Vaquero is as excellent as described he would have been in the FCL last year. The Nats used to have top international guys go straight to the the GCL.See Garcia, Luis, Antuna, Yasel, Sanchez, Jose and others. And Vaquero has more helium than all of them. Yet with said to be plus power he didn’t show much thump in the DSL. Only one homer. I get that he is young and it is the DSL. I know there is a gluttony of outfielders, but he should have a shot to play in Low-A next year. Keith Law seems to think so. I’m thinking he is in the FCL though. Seems they have taken the conservative approach with him..

    1. this has been explained as a tax situation as the bonus was paid in the same year as opposed to the previous summer

      1. That’s interesting. Where did you read about that?

        Without being a tax expert, that sounds really shady that a financial transaction would dictate where a player can and can’t play. But perhaps that has always dictated where IFAs start their careers…?

        1. If the player plays in the US the same year he gets his bonus it’s taxable. in previous years players were signed in the summer making them free to play in the US the following spring.

          1. Death taxes and the ehd of the tape roll
            Taxation and the infamous off shore accounts
            Maritime law coming to an end ..

      2. Interesting about Vaquero and the tax situation. I wonder whether that applied to Armando Cruz in 2021 as well. It seemed like wasted seasons for both to spend in the DSL.

        The best things can be noted about Vaquero’s 2022 season are a 15.3% BB rate and 17.6% K rate. If he can stay close to those numbers as he moves up, he’s got a very good shot to make it. (We would kill for Green to have that discipline.) Vaquero also had 17 SBs in only 55 games, more than he had extra-base hits (9).

        Of course it’s so hard to judge any stats in that league. Maybe some of the catchers didn’t throw well. Did he get four triples because he can fly, or because the fielders and the fields are suspect? Maybe he had a lot of walks and only one homer because they pitched around the kid with the big bonus. Guess we’ll find out more this summer.

        1. I wonder if he was injured as he played a high number of games at DH. He can definitely fly. The triples were probably legit. I saw videos of a triple and an inside the park homer. He is legit fast.

          On the tax situation, the other side is you are costing yourself money down the road as it will be a year later when you get each raise. Now time value of money may argue against that. Plus you may not make it, but if it is me, I am betting on myself and coming over as fast as I can.

          1. John, that’s a very good point about costing himself money on down the road. That figures into the developmental equation as well. If Vaquero had played at FCL in 2022, he’d likely be ticketed for Fredericksburg this year. So he basically chose to be a year behind where he could be, despite all the talk of him already having a “major-league body.” So that’s a year behind reaching the majors, getting arb-eligible, and becoming a free agent. Of course there’s no guarantee he does any of those things, in which case the few thousands he saved last year will be well-banked. But he definitely didn’t “bet on himself.”

          2. For some reason, my “no guarantee” comment made me think of, and look up, Anderson Franco. He’s only 25 years old RIGHT NOW, would be playing his age-25 season. Just a reminder how crazy-young the international guys are when they start. Franco was in his sixth pro season when his career ended at age 21.

  6. Wherever the prospects start, it will be fun for us to watch their progressions, or lack thereof (no fun).

  7. Here is Law’s take on Jake Alu & Jose Ferrer

    Jake Alu, IF
    Age: 26 | 5-10 | 175 pounds
    Bats: Left| Throws: Right
    Drafted: No. 723 in 2019

    “Alu had an incredible year in 2022, hitting .299/.365/.506 between Double A and Triple A, doubling his career high in homers, while playing mostly third base with a little bit at second. The Nats don’t have entrenched starters at either position, and Alu could end up with a lot of at bats this year with his mix of a little power and a little patience.”

    Jose Ferrer, LHP
    Age: 23 | 6-1 | 215 pounds
    Bats: Left | Throws: Left
    Drafted: International signing in 2017

    “Ferrer sits 95-96 with a tight slider and throws a ton of strikes; he’s strictly a one-inning reliever but he should see the majors this year and has some upside in relief because he can get left- and right-handed hitters out, although I liked him better as Cyrano.”

    1. Considering how slowly the Nats have promoted Cronin, it seems a stretch to think that Ferrer will move across AA and AAA to the majors. Of course we don’t know how many arms the big club will cycle through, either.

      What happens at 3B will be very interesting. Candelario and Kieboom would seem to be ahead of Alu in the pre-spring pecking order, but time will tell whether they actually let spring performance determine anything. There’s not much logical reason that a guy with a .217 average in 2022 (Candelario) or a career .197 average (Kieboom) should stand in the way of anyone.

    1. Victor Hurtado. I need to see more, but his swing/bat speed combo is amazing and is 14 and barely 15 in the videos. His arm looked good too. He could be special.

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