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The Preliminary 2023 Watchlist, Part Two

November 21, 2022

2014 Watchlist
The risk of breaking this into two is that “omissions” are actually “guys who are here in Part Two.” Well, maybe not all of them, but most…

RHPs LHPs DSL Arms DSL Bats Notable Arms Notable Bats
Cavalli Cronin Leon Contreras Rutledge Meregildo
Irvin Ferrer C. Sanchez W. Diaz Denaburg Connell
Brzykcy Troop Roman Mojica A. Lara Boisserie
Yankosky Parker D. Perez Vaquero Carrillo Méndez
Willingham Knowles Fortunato E. Ramirez
Ribalta Shuman
Susana M. Perez
Theophile Alvarez
Greenhill Saenz
Atencio Marquez
Aldonis Bennett
K. Rodriguez
Ogando

I can’t recall a time when the pitcher pool was so shallow. Look carefully: Aside from Cavalli, who we’re not sure is healthy, there aren’t any starting pitchers without concerns of age or arm trouble until the lowest levels. Most of these guys are relievers.

I’m sure I’ll get some grief about Rutledge and Denaburg, but I feel confident with those selections because I did see them pitch last summer. Both of them have potential, but they’re both turning 24 in 2023 and neither one of them have been to AA without buying a ticket. I just don’t see them getting much farther.

Are both of these proxies for prospect fatigue? Maybe. But the most “notable” notables are Brian Goodwin and Matt Grace, both of whom played their way back into their “regular” categories.

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23 Commments

  1. KW says:
    November 21, 2022 at 8:16 am

    First and foremost among modifications, I would move Antuna to Notable Bats, if he’s still even worthy of being listed at all. You’ve got Boisserie both here and at 1B; would say that he probably belongs here more at the moment. (And maybe Frizzell too since they don’t seem willing to let him anywhere near a defensive position.)

    Lara did have a 5.51 ERA, but he was in a full-season league at 19, so I’d keep him among the RHPs for the moment. Completely agree with the placement of Rutledge and Denaburg. They both certainly still have the talent to make it, but the hill gets steeper every year.

    Also agree on the lack of starters on the horizon, all the more with the amount of draft capital that the Nats have invested in pitching. I assume that they’re holding their breath on Henry, but I’d be surprised to see much of him in 2023. If that’s the case, then he rapidly starts turning into a Denaburg situation (and Aldo Ramirez). Sigh. Perhaps Susana and Bennett can make some quick progress up the food chain.

    The guy who the Nats promoted in trace to Fburg when they moved de la Rosa to A+ was Christopher de la Cruz. There isn’t much in his stats about which to get excited, but the organization must think something of him. I have no idea why they promoted him instead of Quintana, though.

    1. Luke Erickson says:
      November 21, 2022 at 9:51 am

      Re: Boisserie — not surprised I made that mistake. I kept going back and forth with him and Meregildo. For me, the defining thing with Boisserie is the defense — he fields what he gets to, but doesn’t get to all that much.

      The utter lack of power aside from a handful of OFs has always been concerning. Feels like we always have a few guys that hang around just because they have *some* power…

      1. KW says:
        November 21, 2022 at 12:34 pm

        Agreed. It’s not bad to have Boissiere in the system, but I never understood why he was drafted to so highly (3d round). His most productive college season produced only 5 homers and 12 doubles.

        The lack of power is why I sure hope they get some development from Frizzell and/or Lipscomb, both of whom did have a college season with big numbers to their credit. That’s certainly no guarantee (see Mendoza, Drew), but at some point they’re going to pick the right college wild card, right?

      2. Alou2alu says:
        November 21, 2022 at 8:19 pm

        Would that be a trip if Trey Lipscomb was related very distantly to the late “ Big Daddy “ Lipscomb who OD of heroin
        On Brice Street in Baltimore .

        1. KW says:
          November 22, 2022 at 8:16 am

          Lipscomb was born and raised in Frederick, MD, so he’s a local. Urbana High School.

        2. Bob says:
          November 22, 2022 at 9:19 am

          And helped colts win an NFL championship.

    2. Alou2alu says:
      November 21, 2022 at 4:58 pm

      KW I borrowed the Carnak hat and hat from the Johnny Carson estate
      Spirits like Jake Magnum over Chaparro who has a name conjuring up fast western running horses but your Grandmother can probably out motor him
      Plus Jack Dunn can play the corners and outfield on a bench role spot on roster .
      Right Fred MD ( Listen yo the Doctor – Doobie Bros )

      1. FredMD says:
        November 21, 2022 at 8:06 pm

        I recall a game where the Syracuse announcers were gushing over Magnum. of course that means little. personally I’m more intrigued with Grant Lavigne over both of them if for no other reason that he plays 1B. shout out to Todd Boss for providing the heads up on him.

        1. KW says:
          November 22, 2022 at 8:26 am

          Lavigne only managed 10 homers across 125 games and K’d 27% of the time at AA. He did hit very well in the AFL, though (.328).

          Mangum may be the safest bet of someone who could stick, although his ceiling seems low. But then it is for most of these guys. That’s why they’re in the Rule 5 pool.

          1. Alou2alu says:
            November 23, 2022 at 7:42 am

            That Pirate 1 b may be another consideration with the corner infield platoon consideration .
            Pittsburgh has been feeding their
            pipeline nicely since their last salary purge , Todd
            Racquetball connections are always unique .
            I met an old man traveling who was a USC fan who played water polo with the son of Hollywood actor Andy Devine the large high pitched voices actor in Stagecoach by John Ford

    3. Alou2alu says:
      November 23, 2022 at 6:36 am

      Insomnia on the road in the hotel
      On the cable dial is this replay of a game between BYU and St Mary’s Gales
      Talk about a time warp .
      The post Vance Law skippered BYU Cougars , ex – po fans . Lol

  2. Alou2alu says:
    November 21, 2022 at 8:30 am

    Rule 5! selections even in the AA/ A level phase
    This next June draft will be a haul . Better be one to look back and see the depth.

    1. KW says:
      November 21, 2022 at 8:40 am

      I assume that the Nats have the top pick in all Rule 5 phases? For the MLB portion, Andres Chaparro of the Yankees intrigues me. Jake Mangum of the Mets might be a surer bet to stick at the MLB level, but he doesn’t have much pop. Looks like Stevenson with better contact but even less power.

  3. James says:
    November 21, 2022 at 11:02 am

    Here’s my inputs on both lists.
    1. McKenzie is listed twice under OF.
    2. Agree with the suggestion to add the catcher G. Diaz who had a 751 OPS at F.burg as a 21 yo.
    3. Think Shuman is a RHP instead of LHP. Also, if going to have Shuman might as well have Guasch. He didn’t do well when promoted to AA but had similar stats at H-A at the same age as Shuman who didn’t get promoted.
    4. Agree with suggestions that if going to have Antuna should have Connell. Also, if part of the reason for having Antuna is because he’s on the 40 man then should probably have Fox and Carrillo also.

  4. Will says:
    November 21, 2022 at 4:14 pm

    Been unable to post a few times now. Hope this time goes through.

    Some further omissions (all omissions not created equal):
    Cole Quintanilla, RHP – barely played so far, but been pretty good when he has. Maybe add to MASH?
    Kyle Luckham, RHP – 15th rounder, one of the few of the 2022 drafted arms that actually played. Was ok in a short stint
    Peyton Glavine, LHP – shown a really good swing-and-miss ability, but struggled to stay health (add to MASH?)
    Chance Huff, RHP – 2022 8th rounder, looked really sharp in limited time (0.93 ERA)
    Marquis Grissom, RHP – 13th round legacy pick and Huff’s teammate from GA Tech, who surprisingly signed as a 20 year old sophomore (so he’s a lot younger than most 2022 draft picks). Held his own.
    Jose Cedeno, RHP – Panamanian who’s been very good in limited time so far (sub 1.00 WHIP in his 3 season career so far, and just turned 21 after the season ended)
    Gabriel Agostini, LHP (maybe the biggest omission on the list), if I remember correctly was the or one of the 3 youngest players in stateside minor league baseball this season, and was quite good (3.63 ERA). He’s got a bright future
    Jack Sinclair, RHP – (another notable omission), 16th rounder from ’21 has exceeded all expectations. Dominated A+ batters with a 2.05 ERA and more Ks than IP.
    Brendan Collins, RHP – just read Sinclair’s description; same story, just the 17th round instead of the 16th.
    Marc Davis, RHP – 11th round ’21 draft pick. Had a quietly very good season, with a sub 1.00 WHIP. Wish the Nats challenged him more, but I can’t fault him for that.
    Michael Cuevas, RHP – HS draft pick who’s way ahead of his age appropriate level at 21 in A+. He held his own (4.64 ERA)
    Carlos Romero, RHP – the guy came out of nowhere to completely reinvent himself. He never before struck out more than 8.1 per 9IP, then went wild striking out 12.1 this season (97 K in 72 IP). Again, another inexplicable non-promotion, but I’d stop beating a dead horse…
    Gerardo Carrillo, RHP – a piece of the Turner/Scherzer trade with considerable prospect hype, whose season was marred by injury (perhaps for MASH)
    Tim Cate, LHP – as historically bad as his AFL was, he’s still a prospect and one of the few at the higher levels
    Riley Cornelio, RHP – ’22 7th rounder who, along with Bennett, didn’t appear
    Luke Young, RHP – another ’22 draft pick (11th round) who didn’t appear who received some low-level hype

    Another for MASH:
    Alfonso Hernandez, RHP – missed the season after a fantastic 2021. Looking forward to seeing him in 2023

    1. Alou2alu says:
      November 21, 2022 at 5:00 pm

      Hey ‘ Fonzi !!!
      Yes
      Angelic Gabriel A
      Cuevas Gold repeats Wilmington and hope springs eternally by June Senator Cuevas

    2. KW says:
      November 21, 2022 at 5:40 pm

      Wasn’t Alfonso H. on the minor-league free agent list? Or am I misremembering? Doesn’t mean that they can’t/won’t re-sign him, of course.

  5. Alou2alu says:
    November 21, 2022 at 8:23 pm

    Lavigne that much an improvement over Drew Mendoza with bat moving forward / upward ?

    1. FredMD says:
      November 21, 2022 at 8:32 pm

      well he’s two years younger and has already played in AA. I like his plate discipline too

      1. Alou2alu says:
        November 22, 2022 at 9:04 am

        Some thing fascinating about the watchlist
        Or as Hendrix and Dylan sang : all along the watch tower , baby ..
        A Lara is progressing along nicely with assimilation with age effort and innings for his time pattern ETA..

  6. Alou2alu says:
    November 23, 2022 at 6:44 am

    FredMD it’s always about a prospect getting to AA for the ABs and better stadium lighting compared to lower levels .

  7. Pingback: Vote for Your Favorite Arms - NationalsProspects.com
  8. James says:
    December 2, 2022 at 11:20 am

    Noticed one more thing, Aldonis is listed as a RHP, he is a LHP.

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