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Monday’s News & Notes

Team Yesterday Today Pitching Probables
Rochester Won, 3-2 OFF DAY N/A
Harrisburg Cancelled OFF DAY N/A
Wilmington Won, 2-1 OFF DAY N/A
Fredericksburg Won, 4-1 OFF DAY N/A
FCL Nationals OFF DAY vs. FCL Mets, 12 p.m.
DSL Nationals OFF DAY vs. DSL TEX Red, 11 a.m.

Rochester 3 Worcester 2
• Ponce De Leon (W, 1-2) 5IP, 0H, 0R, 4BB, 7K
• Weems (SV, 14) 1⅔ IP, 0H, 0R, 0BB, K, 1-0 IR-S
• Alu 2-4
• Stevenson 1-4, R, HR, 3RBI

Andrew Stevenson connected for a three-run HR in the 3rd and six Red Wings pitchers made that stand up for a 3-2 win in the series finale. Daniel Ponce De Leon no-hit Worcester for five innings, walking four and striking out seven to win his first game for Rochester. Jordan Weems got the last five outs for his 14th save. Jake Alu led the Red Wings hit column with two singles, while Lucius Fox and Taylor Gushue each had one safety to round out the tally of five hits total.

Harrisburg vs. Altoona – CNCLD
Rain washed away the finale between Altoona and Harrisburg. Because the two teams do not meet again in 2022, it will not be made up. The Curve won 14 of 23 games against the Senators, including the last four played.

Wilmington 2 Jersey Shore 1
• Alvarez 3IP, 0H, 0R, 0BB, 2K
• Carrillo (W, 1-0) 1⅔ IP, 0H, 0R, 1BB, 2K
• Ferrer (SV, 8) 1IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1K, HR
• V. Peña 2-3, BB, RBI
• Daily 1-3, BB, RBI

The Blue Rocks took a no-hitter into the 9th but lost it on a solo HR but won the game, 2-1, over the BlueClaws to split the series. Andrew Alvarez got the start and went the first three innings with no walks and two K’s. The win went to Gerardo Carrillo with a walk over one and 2/3rds and two whiffs. Jose Ferrer lost the no-no as Luis Garcia (no relation) went deep with one out but got the next two outs for his 8th save.

Fredefricksburg 4 Lynchburg 1
• Atencio (W, 3-1) 5IP, 3H, 0R, 1BB, 2K
• Threadgill (SV, 7) 1IP, 0H, 0R, 0BB, 2K
• McKenzie 3-5, 3R, 3B, SB
• Wood 2-2, R, 2BB, RBI, SB

After waiting out a 64-minute rain delay, Fredericksburg and Lynchburg clashed for the last time in the regular season with the FredNats splitting the series with a 4-1 win. Jose Atencio won for the third time in five Low-A starts, tossing five scoreless with three hits and one walk allowed while striking out two. After Holden Powell “worked on some stuff” to lose the shutout, Cody Greenhill, Marlon Perez, and Riggs Threadgill each put up a goose egg and combined for seven strikeouts to close out the game. Jared McKenzie singled twice, tripled once, and scored three times while James Wood reached four times with two single and two walks to power the Fredericksburg offense.

FCL Nationals – OFF DAY
Even if the F-Nats win today, they do not control their own destiny as the F-Mets only need to win one of the next two games to clinch the FCL East.

DSL Nationals – OFF DAY
The D-Nats are at 29-29 and need just one win to clinch a .500 or better finish and have consecutive non-losing seasons for the first time since 2013-2014.

25 Commments

  1. After 24 AB’s Jared McKenzie is proving too much for Low A. The same for Will Frizzell and he, at 23 years old, is too old for that level.

    With 102 AB’s Jake ‘no respect’ Alu has adjusted well to AAA and now has a .753 OPS and trending upwards.

    1. You could add James Wood to the list of players too good for Fredericksburg.

      My concern about McKenzie is the same one I have of Elijah Green: his insane lack of plate discipline. Yes, both have been very successful so far, but McKenzie’s strikeout rate (48%) is somehow worse than Green’s (43%)!

      It’s especially concerning, because this doesn’t appear to be something the Nats development staff have any success coaching out of a player’s system. Or perhaps they aren’t even interested in doing so? Just quoting from FanGraphs’ prospect list from a month ago, as I found it pretty startling:

      “It’s curious then that the farm system is devoid of prospects with water-carrying feel for contact. Even the hitters billed as being relatively polished coming out of the draft, like Daylen Lile and Sammy Infante, have concerning early-career swinging strike rates. Only six players under 23 in this org have a SwStr% better than the big league average, and several of those need to be taken with a grain of salt because they’re older than the typical prospect at their level.”

      1. Will, agree on Wood but he’s only 19, at least for another month, while Frizzell is 23 and McKenzie is 21. The Nats need to see what they have with them and they won’t while they’re at Low A.

      2. Would like to see the system-wide numbers in the minors, but the MLB Nats have the lowest K rate in the NL, and second lowest K rate in MLB. The two Nats’ players that rose in through the system with 200+ MLB ABs, Soto and Luis Garcia, but have K rates less than the MLB average. Always felt that the primary weakness (admittedly there are many) of the Nats system was not lack of contact, but lack of power.

        Really hard to know how much influence a MLB team can have on a player’s offensive tendencies (Soto and Garcia would probably have a low K rate in any system). FWIW, the Nats have had Green in their system for three weeks; contact rate was always a concern for him; so, let’s go a little easy on making conclusions about the Nats’ ability to change a life-long issue from Green.

        1. It should be noted that the MLB Nats roster is currently composed of exactly two (Robles and Tres Barrera) players drafted/signed by the Nats. The other 23 came through other orgs. Robles (23.7%) and Barrera (22.9%) both possess career MLB strikeout rates (slightly) above league average (22.3%) (and their current K% are substantially higher than their career numbers)

          With that said, I don’t disagree that a lack of power is also a big weakness. In fact, I’d lump these two factors together, and say that the Nats are just generally unable to develop hitters (Juan Soto excepted, but then again Juan Soto is quite literally exceptional).

          I am very much willing to withhold judgement on Green. Juan Soto has shown that any individual player is not predestined to suffer from its organizations faults. However, they are much more likely to do so, especially when the player’s greatest weakness is one of the org’s greatest weaknesses. But let’s see! James Wood seems to be unfazed after three weeks!

      3. Under the radar Bryan C @ Fred reached 100 IP in his last start
        The 5 IP job by Ponce De Leon last night reminds me of a rehab start Len Barker made at old Bush Stadium in Indy for the AAA Expo affiliate . He did the same numbers almost .
        Whimsical for some guys playing out the last threads of their tattered careers .

    2. The complex Kiddie corp
      Responded today with a fire lit under them by skipper stressing playoff
      Urgency . Cool!!
      Quintana needs to head to Fred . Right , FredMD?
      Will ?

  2. After a rocky start to high A pitching, Viandel Pena seems to have adapted. Through 10 games, he’s hitting a respectable .265/.324/.382, including .400/.429/.600 over his past 6 games.

    Speaking of recent promotees, I’m starting to get worried about Robert Hassell. He was meant to have really advanced hit skills, but we haven’t seen evidence of that yet. Across Wilmington and Harrisburg, he’s hitting .167/.271/.200. That (small) sample size (70 PA) is getting bigger and bigger, while his rate stats aren’t.

  3. Hanrahan must have had a real beef to get tossed . Se La vie it supported the bullpen to a win .
    Monday flooded basement

    1. I haven’t seen the whole game but Atencio’s typical good command was getting no respect from the home plate blue. if they could clone Atencio and Lara you’d have something really special

    2. always love the kicking of dirt all over the plate, Hanrahan took his time and got it completely covered, clean up that mess blue, I’m outta here!

  4. Alou: Guessing the glove was a good one, but it was a 101 MPH pitch.

    McKenzie’s first 9 outs were by K. He literally had a 1000 babip.

    Will: I am sorry, I do not have a link handy, but Hassell said he is trying a different swing (or some type of mechanical change.) Honestly, the Eastern league is tough. I will be more worried if it lingers into next year.

    I hope Green can adjust like his old teammate Wood. Wood changed his swing after last season. The Nats usually do not mess with draftees until instructional league. So fingers crossed. Green/Wood could be really, really special. Sky is the limit if they have plate discipline. Both guys work hard. Wood apparently took off a lot of weight and is still building up the right way. Elijah is ripped, but could still fill out more.

    Alou: I forgot to mention big Cam Johnson as a LHP. From MD, but going to IMG this year. He was on the Nats Area Code team with Charlee Soto. Green, House, and White were all taken after playing on that team.

    1. That’s interesting, regarding Hassell. “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” comes to mind here… Do you know if it was the Padres, Nats or Hassell himself that initiated the swing tweak? If you can find the link, please share it. I searched around and didn’t find anything, but found an interesting interview he did with FanGraphs, where he talks about his approach to hitting from April of this year: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/robert-hassell-iii-talks-hitting/

      But no mention of a swing change.

      However, he did struggle to adapt last season when he was promoted from low to high A, hitting .205/.287/.410 in his last 18 games. Still, the power was still there, which has been completely absent since he joined the Nats (only 2 XBH in 70 PA).

      1. I will share if I can find it. He said he had just started this right before the trade. I think he will be OK. Much more scared about Elijah. His K rate is historically bad for rookie ball. Light significantly worse than Joey Gallo Jo Adell, and Bubba Starling.

      2. I thought I read ink somewhere where Hassell claimed he was self experimenting .
        My Carnac vibe says Hassell will be fine in “23

  5. Looking at Frizzell’s splits, there is something to work on:
    vs RHP: 100 PA 385/440/659
    vs LHP: 21 PA 222/333/333

  6. McKenzie K’d 26% of the time at Baylor this spring, so this is nothing new. And of course the biggest issue with Green mentioned in EVERY scouting report was his swing/miss problems. Same with House in the previous draft. The Nats have made conscious decisions to ignore these yellow flags. Time will tell if this tactic pays off.

    1. Green was always going to be the riskiest pick, but we are a year away from seeing how he’s doing with that.

  7. 21 K in 46 PA for Green with 6 3-K games out of 11. I really hope they have a plan for him for instructs. I have not found a good player that was this bad in rookie ball. This is scary to me. It would be a huge bust if it worked out that way.

    1. FanGraphs has a great historical minor league stat filter. You can see every FCL/GCL season since 2006 and sort by K%.

      https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&level=0&lg=17&stats=bat&qual=50&type=1&team=&season=2006&seasonEnd=2021&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=true&players=&sort=7,1

      Just click “split seasons” then filter by K%. 3654 players have had at least 50 PA in Florida rookie ball, only 33 of them have had a strikeout rate higher than Green’s 42.9%.

      But let’s see if he settles down a bit with some more game time. While 6 of 11 games have had 3 K, the other 5 have had 1 or 0 strikeouts. So if he can channel that version of himself more often, maybe he’ll turn out okay.

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