Offseason Update: Dec. 1, 2020

22 Commments

1. It’s easy to see how all of this will make things “different.” It’s impossible to see how it makes things any “better.” This is so ham-handed, slap-dished, whatever cliche’ you want to use. A whole lot of folks are going to end up pissed; very few are going to end up happy. The bean-counter side of MLB front offices will be happy, but the developmental side won’t.

   They’re wiping away more than a third of the developmental levels. You’re going to have 17-year-old Latino signees playing against 22-year-old high-level college draftees in A ball. I also suspect you’re going to see a lot of Rhineharting, with guys pushed too far too fast, hitting a wall hard, and never recovering. Will teams have the patience to give players like Taylor, Souza, and Reetz opportunities to repeat levels while they “find themselves.” I think it took Austen Williams three tries to stick at AA. I suspect a few legit players will be given up on and resurface and do better in other organizations.

   What I also fear is that this is just the end of the beginning, that this mess is going to keep devolving for at least half a decade before things settle. I also suspect that a number of local operators will throw up their hands and give up after being jerked around so much.

2. The state college ownership is talking like this is the greatest thing since sliced bread. They think the talent level will be better than what they had before.

3. Can one of the many better-informed commentors shed some light on what sort of say the Orioles might have in the Nationals acquiring an affiliate firmly within Baltimore territory? Do they get any say at all?

   Also, is there anything at the moment preventing the Nationals from courting Aberdeen or Bowie to partner with them after their current agreement with Baltimore ends?

   Ultimately, what I’m trying to get at, is what sort of agency do the Nationals have in encouraging the Orioles to make their difficult decision over which team to cut of Bowie, Frederick, Aberdeen and Delmarva? And could the Nats make the decision for them by recruiting away the team they might prefer most (i.e. Bowie)?

   1. I can only speak to what I know, and what I know is that Ken Young is the owner of the Norfolk Tides, the Frederick Keys, and the Bowie Baysox. All three are longtime Orioles affiliates, and Young told the Baltimore Sun a few weeks ago that he hasn’t been talking to any other MLB club. It’s fair to say he’s in tight with Orioles ownership.

      Now, is it possible MLB will tell Young only two of his teams are being offered licenses to remain in affiliated baseball? Yes, and I’d even venture to say that’s likely. And is it possible that Young will dissolve or sell the unlucky team rather than continue operating it in whatever special league-only-for-draft-prospects-who-dislike-artichokes MLB manages to concoct so they can say, “See! We’re keeping baseball in every community!” Yes, that’s possible. And could a new owner move into that ballpark and decide they want to sign an affiliation deal with the Nats? Sure, and the Nats would probably be the most logical parent club.

      However, this is all going through MLB now. Teams have input, but MLB is making the decisions and awarding the licenses. The deals go for as long as MLB says they will go, and presumably it will be up to MLB whether they are renewed or renegotiated or discontinued. And the process of selling a team takes time, and time has just about run out — we’re likely, from multiple reports, to have an announcement of the new alignments and affiliations tomorrow or later this week.

      So while I would never say never, my feeling is the Nats could end up with Bowie or Frederick…maybe in time for the 2026 or 2031 season, possibly, if those teams change hands or are reconstituted and MLB gives its blessing, which would likely doom another team to play in a special league-for-draft-prospects-who-are-under-6-feet-tall or whatever.

      1. Sao, don’t you think Delmarva is the odd one out. It’s farthest away on the Eastern Shore.

         Also, shouldn’t there be a wood bat league for those who are lactose intolerant.

         1. Maybe, but Delmarva has two things going for it: One, it’s not part of a minor league fiefdom whose owner has been openly critical of MLB’s restructuring plan. Two, thanks to the Chesapeake Bay Bridge-Tunnel, it’s actually closer to teams in eastern North Carolina and coastal South Carolina, especially once you factor in D.C.-area traffic.

            Either way, a Low-A team in Maryland is going to be a major geographic outlier — especially if all three Virginia teams stay at High-A, as now appears likely.

            1. I should note that that being said, Frederick would be closer to teams that are further inland, which could make it more appealing to put into Low-A *instead* of Delmarva. However, in that event, my expectation would be that it would be an Orioles affiliate. If they *both* end up in Low-A, I’d expect that to come at the expense of Chattanooga, and considering my current projection has the Nats affiliating with Chattanooga…well, that would leave the Nats in need of an affiliate.

               Wouldn’t want to be that league’s scheduler, but it still wouldn’t be as bad as the new Mid-Atlantic League, which I still think ought to be split in two.

      2. I know MLB says it’s leading this process, but all other evidence suggests that’s not actually the case.

         Such as:
         The Mets and Yankees unilaterally announcing their affiliates.
         The Astros and Twins cutting perfectly acceptable AAA teams for geographically advantageous indy ball clubs.

         MLB wants the public to see a logical and orderly process and so they project that message, but those of us paying closer attention can see it’s been anything but that. The franchises with a clear vision on their minor league set ups (Astros, Yankees, etc.) have acted quickly and decisively, order and convenience be damned! (For example, the Astros decision to affiliate with the Sugar Land, led to at least four consequential moves- likely Texas taking Round Rock, Milwaukee(?) taking Nashville, San Antonio switching to AA, resulting in additional moves at the AA level).

         I guess I just would have liked to see the Lerners be more decisive on this front (and perhaps they are doing so but discretely). There are several great alternatives to Hagerstown available to them, and with the well-discussed Sophie’s choice that the Orioles have, it presents a perfect opportunity for the Nats to move in and basically pick whichever team they like most. We all know the Orioles need to cut one team, so if the Nationals approached Ken Young with an offer to affiliate with the BaySox (just an example), I think he’d jump at the chance, because it would ensure the future viability of his other two teams, the Tides and, especially, the Keys and solve the Orioles’ choice problem. The alternative is him refusing to talk to the Nats, thereby forcing them to choose an inconvenient fit like Chattanooga, and leave the Keys out in the cold in the end.

         In the end, it will probably play out similar to this, but I suspect the Nats will be content to take whoever the Orioles opt to cut, rather than the Nats acting proactively and taking their preferred choice.

         Guess we’ll find out soon enough!

         1. I’m actually starting to think so too, to your ultimate point (the Nats ending up with the Orioles’ leftovers). I just don’t think that’s going to be Frederick or Bowie, I think Delmarva is likelier. The Orioles are insular about their business partners (we know that well enough) and would be very, very happy if the only people they have to deal with at the minor league level are Ken Young and Cal Ripken Jr. And I don’t think Young or Ripken are very interested in doing business elsewhere, either.

            We shall see, hopefully today, maybe tomorrow…

4. The Orioles can’t complain too much about the Nats, as they have their AAA team in the Tidewater region of Virginia.

   1. Bowie is located just 20 miles down route 50 from Nationals Park. Even the biggest Angelos-ophile wouldn’t try to claim that PG County is part of Baltimore’s territory. (Ok, on second thought, maybe they would)

5. OK, so at this point, I’ve mapped out a couple of projections I consider plausible, with a little bit of room — albeit less room than I’d like — for MLB to potentially split the difference.

   Projection 1:
   HIGH-A: Hudson Valley (NYY), Brooklyn (NYM), Jersey Shore (PHI), Wilmington (TBR?), Aberdeen (BAL), Fredericksburg (WSH), Lynchburg (ATL?), Salem (BOS), Winston-Salem (CWS), Greensboro (PIT), Asheville (MIA), Hickory (TEX)
   LOW-A: Chattanooga (WSH?), Rome (ATL), Augusta (CLE?), Greenville (BOS), Columbia (KCR?), Charleston (TBR), Myrtle Beach (CHC), Fayetteville (HOU), Down East (TEX), Kannapolis (CWS), Carolina (MIL), Delmarva (BAL)

   Projection 2:
   HIGH-A: Hudson Valley (NYY), Brooklyn (NYM), Jersey Shore (PHI), Wilmington (TBR?), Aberdeen (BAL), Delmarva (WSH?) // Winston-Salem (CWS), Greensboro (PIT), Asheville (MIA), Hickory (TEX), Greenville (BOS), Rome (ATL)
   LOW-A: Augusta (ATL?), Columbia (KCR?), Charleston (TBR), Myrtle Beach (CHC), Fayetteville (HOU), Down East (TEX), Kannapolis (CWS), Carolina (MIL), Salem (BOS), Lynchburg (CLE), Fredericksburg (WSH), Frederick (BAL)

   It’s still possible — although I don’t know why you would do this, since it wouldn’t be conducive for travel — to keep Salem at High-A and Greenville at Low-A. It’s also possible to keep Fredericksburg at High-A and Delmarva at Low-A — but again, that would be less logistically savvy.

   The winners in Projection 1 are Bowling Green and Chattanooga, which both have a place in affiliated ball (BG would be at Double-A) in this setup. The winners in Projection 2 are Bowie and Frederick, which would otherwise have Ken Young reenacting “Sophie’s Choice”, as well as league schedulers up and down the East Coast — because under this alignment, it’d be a mortal lock that the “southern” and “northern” High-A teams would play one another rarely or never (maybe the league championship would be played between the winner in each division/subleague?).

6. C Sanfler in the big Board @ AAA just positioning pre Rule 5 Winter meetings ??

   1. Correct.

7. Well, in case we’d forgotten it’s 2020, Ballpark Digest is now linking the Nationals to…Wilmington. At least my hunch about Frederick replacing Bowie at Double-A appears to be correct, although it sounds like there’s not been a final decision made yet.

   Orioles: Norfolk / Frederick / Aberdeen / Delmarva
   Nationals: Rochester / Harrisburg / Wilmington / Fredericksburg

   In case anyone has become attached to Chattanooga after all of this furious speculation, it now appears it will remain the Reds’ Double-A affiliate, leaving Bowling Green in limbo. Assuming Bowie and Bowling Green are out of the affiliated ranks, that leaves me wondering what the 24th team is between the Low-A and High-A leagues on the East Coast. West Virginia? Tri-City? …Norwich? Does Lake County jump over from the Midwest League to spare one of the teams facing the axe there?

   We’ll see how it plays out. Sounds like no announcement is likely today, but probably by the end of the week, we will know. (Wonder if Fresno is holding things up…)

   1. Another possibility: Northwest League stays at eight teams, Rome stays at Low-A, and the Braves and Rays link up with High-A affiliates in the Midwest League. That probably drops Augusta, the only team in the Low-A Sally League left without a dance partner, and Bowie, squeezed in Ken Young’s “Sophie’s Choice”, out of affiliated ball to the benefit of Salem-Keizer and Boise.

      Given how much else seems to be firming up, it would surprise me not at all if these are the details being wrangled right now as we wait for the announcement to be made.

      1. To that end, Ballpark Digest says it’s hearing next Tuesday is D-120 Day.

   2. Sao,
      I read also about the Reds and Chattanooga. Chattanooga is a terrific stadium, highly recommended.

      I don’t get leaving Bowie in the wind, their stadium meets the AAA specifications. There is also the owner connection.

      1. My thoughts on Bowie (and let me start off by saying I haven’t ever been to the ballpark) are this:

         For one, Ken Young already owns two other teams, and while I can’t imagine a sense of fairness is the driving motivator behind MLB’s decimation of the minor leagues, there may be a feeling that some of these minor league empires need to be knocked down a peg or two. Minor League Baseball no longer exists as a separate entity, which leaves these blocs as the biggest obstacle remaining in the way of MLB doing whatever it wants with the minor leagues.

         For another, Prince George’s Stadium is coming up on 30 years old, and Young told the Sun just a few weeks ago that if Frederick and Bowie remain in the affiliated minor leagues, those facilities will need to be improved “dramatically”. Times are tight right now, and MLB already has a lot of hard decisions to make. Maybe the calculus here is that if both of those facilities need work, it would be more reasonable to expect a single ownership group to put its resources toward improving one of them rather than being responsible for both.

8. Yankees announced they are cutting Staten Island loose after previous assurances that they would keep them as an affiliate. Today, the Staten Island Yankees are suing the NY Yankees and MLB. To the extent there is any reasonable opening for these minor league teams to have a case against MLB, MLB and the MLB Owners are not sympathetic defendants. With the amount of money MLB will end up spending in legal fees and settlements, there would have been a more reasonable way to handle the issue of minor league restructuring.

   1. Unless Staten Island really has the goods — as in, they have an ironclad promise in writing from the Yankees that they would never, ever be dropped as an affiliate to present as Exhibit A — the minor league owner there is going to have a pretty hard time. The legal eagles can speak to this in more detail, but my understanding is a breach of contract case is pretty cut-and-dried: You either have a written and formalized agreement that has been demonstrably violated, or else you don’t have a case.

      I don’t know anything, but it really strains plausibility to think the Yankees were ever dumb enough to commit to a junior business partner in perpetuity without any sort of escape clause. Any lawyer who signed off on an agreement of that short should find a new line of work.

      1. The Staten Island group very publicly said they were closing up shop and that the Yankees were scumbags. I don’t blame them for suing, even though the chances of success are very low.

         After D-Day 120 next week I would expect more of these.

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