The Preliminary 2021 Watchlist
As mentioned in my penultimate post, now that the Rule 5 Draft Deadline has come and gone we can go another lap in the 2019-?? offseason with the discussion of the next iteration of the Watchlist.
But just like everything else the past 8½ months, it’s an outlier of an exception of a caveat. There was no 2020 season on which to base any decisions. There were only:
- Graduations – Carter Kieboom, Luis Garcia
- Releases – Nick Raquet, Eric Senior
- Surgeries (that we know of) – Jake Irvin
- The abbreviated 2021 Draft
Yes, I am aware there were a few sons and nephews of Nationals employees NDFAs and a couple of IFAs, but I think we can safely skip over them. Sorry, if that sounds harsh, but we probably wouldn’t be discussing (or considering) them in a so-called normal offseason.
So what does that leave us? Unfortunately, as you might’ve already guessed, I don’t have much choice but to punt.
Now some of the caveats remain the same, though there are some new qualifiers. For example, It’s not a depth chart, it’s ordered top-to-bottom by the highest level played in regular-season games. With no 2020 data and no independent assessments, we’re stuck with 2019 presumptions regarding usage, etc.
Finally, in creating three of the four this-year-only-we-hope categories (’19 DSL Guys, ’19 IFAs, and Aged Out?) I alphabetized them since they either haven’t played yet or they’ve all played at so close of a level that it would almost look like this anyway.
Without further ado, here’s my first (you’re on) crack at the 11th NationalsProspects.com Watchlist:
| C | 1B | 2B/SS | 3B | OF | RHPs |
| Reetz | Harrison | Cluff | Lara | Rhinesmith | Bartow |
| G. Diaz | Mendoza | Arruda | Meregildo | Connell | Rutledge |
| Murzi | Emiliani | Martina | Mendez | A. Guillen | |
| V. Peña | Randa | Adon | |||
| Hurtado | McMahan | ||||
| Sanfler | Turner | ||||
| De La Rosa | Dyson | ||||
| Peterson | |||||
| Willingham | |||||
| Yean | |||||
| Seijas | |||||
| P. Gonzalez | |||||
| LHPs | ’19 DSL Guys | ’19 IFAs | ’20 Draft Picks | Aged Out? | Notables |
| Teel | Cedeño | Adonis | Cavalli | Banks | Tetreault |
| Cate | De La Cruz | Ju. Garcia | Henry | Barrera | Schaller |
| Cronin | Geraldo | Lara | Infante | Corredor | Jo. Sanchez |
| Troop | M. Gomez | Marquez | Powell | Condra-Bogan | Cuevas |
| A. Hernandez | R. Gomez | D. Martinez | Lindsly | Crowe | |
| Chu | Hiraldo | Quintana | Parker | Freeman | |
| E. Lee | Marte | E. Santana | A. Lee | ||
| Knowles | Montero | German | |||
| Ferrer | Rivero | M. Sanchez | |||
| B. Peña | Rodriguez |
Good job, Luke, making something out of nothing. I read somewhere that the minor league season will start around the 2nd week of May.
First glance: Pineda in catchers and Romero in LHP. I know Pineda was gosh-awful in 2019, but there were folks who were adamant that he should have been added to the 40-man. (I wasn’t one of them.) Romero has only 2.2 innings of game action since 2018, but they were in the majors after they skipped him three levels, so I guess they still think he has a future.
Then there’s Denaburg, about whom we still have no real tangible evidence, two and a half years after he was drafted. Maybe you should include a “Sasquatch” category.
Looks like Fredericksburg may just stay at High-A after all, as it appears there will not be four High-A leagues after all. Baseball America reports just now there will be three High-A leagues, including the new Mid-Atlantic League that will include teams as far south as the Carolinas: https://www.talknats.com/2020/11/24/jackson-rutledge-named-mlb-pipelines-1-prospect-nats/
This really clicks a number of things into place. I’ll have an updated projection later today.
Well, this is a fairly simple exercise, but it’s yielding a result I didn’t expect and don’t really see any easy way around. Either the South Atlantic League is going to be entirely based in the Southeast plus, randomly, a team in rural Maryland…or there’s going to be a switcharoo within the three teams owned by Maryland Baseball Holding LLC, involving the Norfolk Tides dropping from Triple-A to Low-A.
What I’ve got right now:
MALLY: Hudson Valley (NYY), Brooklyn (NYM), Jersey Shore (PHI), Wilmington (???), Aberdeen (BAL), Fredericksburg (WSH), Lynchburg (???), Salem (BOS), Greensboro (PIT), Winston-Salem (CWS), Asheville (MIA), Hickory (TEX)
SALLY: Chattanooga (CIN), Rome (ATL), Augusta (???), Greenville (BOS), Columbia (???), Charleston (???), Myrtle Beach (CHC), Fayetteville (HOU), Kannapolis (CWS), Down East (TEX), Carolina (MIL), Norfolk (BAL)
Somebody tell me I’m an idiot. If the Mid-Atlantic League is really going to stretch from Dutchess County, N.Y., to western North Carolina, I cannot seem to figure out a way to draw the South Atlantic League in a way where it makes even the slightest modicum of sense to have it go as far north as Maryland.
Thanks Sao, for digging in the weeds to try and decode MLB’S secrets.
Here are the two key grafs from BA:
I think it’s safe to assume that the West Coast “A” leagues will be eight teams each. Beyond that, I’m not sure.
It’d be a pretty big surprise to me if the Northwest League actually retains all eight of its teams. The new travel requirements are going to be excruciating for Boise, and both Salem-Keizer and Tri-City have had attendance issues for years (although Tri-City is getting some facility upgrades, which just might save it).
The assumptions I’m drawing from this:
– Some but not all of the Midwest League teams will move to High-A (this could mean at least one loses affiliation, at least one ends up at another level, or both)
– The new High-A level in the Pacific Northwest will be made up of teams that currently play in the Northwest League (unclear if this means all of them or just some of them)
– The new High-A Mid-Atlantic League will be an amalgam of teams from the New York-Penn, Carolina, and South Atlantic leagues that will stretch at least from New York to the Carolinas (and this could be interpreted to mean teams from both North and South Carolina will be included?)
– Most but not all of the Low-A California League teams will be from the current High-A California League (this dovetails with reports Fresno will be demoted from Triple-A)
– As with the new incarnation of the Northwest League, the new Low-A league in Florida will be comprised of teams from the Florida State League
– Most but not all of the teams in the new Low-A league in the Southeast will be from the Carolina and South Atlantic leagues (which lines up with my own speculation that Chattanooga, just a hop, skip, and a jump from Rome, could move down from Double-A to make room for Bowling Green in the reconfigured Southern League)
Thanks for doing this again Luke. There’s not much to go on this year other than who was invited to 60 man camp, who got added to the 40 man and whatever rumors we hear about who looks good. That being said, time to throw some darts since that’s the point of this, lol!
1. I would add Antuna and Fuentes since they were added to the 40 man, even though I don’t have any idea what position Antuna might eventually play.
2. I would also add Pineda since he was on the 60 man, was supposedly almost added to the 40 man, he is still young and they are always talking him up.
3. I’m not sure what Jo. Sánchez has ever done to be included, especially when you didn’t include Antuna.
4. I know you don’t like to look at draft signing bonuses, but the fact that Lindsly was signed for the same $20K as the free agents makes it obvious he was a throw away pick to save money to use on others.
After a more in depth look, the only additional inputs I have are that I agree with KW about adding Romero and I would add Braymer to the Aged Out group.