Offseason Update: Nov. 8, 2020
While the Civil War between MLB and MiLB continues, the recent affiliate announcement by the Yankees gives some clues as to the future landscape of minor-league baseball.
Perhaps most notable is how one of the affiliation swaps is with former indy-league team Somerset, which will replace Trenton in AA. Hudson Valley will become the new High-A affiliate for the Yankees, which also confirms that the Florida State League will shift from High-A to Low-A in 2021, as multiple sources have speculated.
Likewise, the Yankees said that former affiliates Staten Island and Trenton will be offered spots in the new “partner” Atlantic League while Charleston is, sorry to get technical here, SOL.
A look at the former PDC list appears to suggest the dissolution of the PBA between MLB and MiLB has nullified any existing PDCs, given that Trenton had been signed through 2022.
Mike McCann, who runs minorleaguesource.com (previous link), has taken a SWAG at how this might shake out, and it’s worth taking a look as his blog is devoted to the macro of the minors while this one is usually devoted to the micro of the Nats’ minors.
Some highlights from his version of events:
- The F-Nats would move to the new Mid-Atlantic League, joining affiliates from the Orioles (Aberdeen), Yankees (Hudson Valley), Phillies (Wilmington), Mets (Tri-City), and Pirates (West Virginia)
- As speculated in the comments, Rochester would be the Nats’ AAA home
- Harrisburg stays put in the Eastern League and at AA
- Hagerstown is out, but no new home is named, though there’s a whole lot of TBDs in the Sally
The first thing that really sticks out to me is that there are still some West Coast teams with affiliates on the East Coast, specifically MASN-Commenter-favorite Richmond (Giants) and Hartford (Rockies). However, both teams are fairly near to airports and there are no obvious “trades” to be made that would be beneficial to both parent clubs.
The second thing is that there are probably going to be some more independents turning into affiliated clubs. While I have a hard time wrapping my head around Frederick being left out of affiliated ball, I would have said the same thing about Trenton, too. Now I’m starting to think that my circa-2015 joke about Jimmy Yezzo finally making it to Washington (PA, Wild Things, Frontier League) could be sort of a prediction.
Finally, the obligatory reminder/caveat that everyone—Baseball America, Ballpark Digest, your grandmother—makes: Until the list of 120 is released, we’re really all just guessing.
So one thing that hasn’t been clear to me: is the intention here that these revamped affiliations are going to be permanent (or perhaps semi-permanent, like two teams could trade), so we don’t have the PDC dance every two years? Or is this just a reset and 2 years from now Nats could end up in Reno?
The expectation is that the agreements will be quite a bit longer (10 years seems to be the magic number, but could be closer to 5 years). So yeah, no more affiliation shuffle every two years. Less fun for fans to follow, but I’m guessing the MLB teams won’t miss that.
I’ve also read MLB teams will have easier outs in those deals for things like a MiLB team not maintaining the facilities well, which I guess was a big issue in Staten Island. In that case though, it wouldn’t be MLB teams swapping affiliates necessarily, but MLB teams having the option to pull in an Independent League team, or I guess just spin up a new team altogether.
But yeah, very unlikely that most teams will end up in another Nats/Fresno situation. The West Coast teams will still have to deal with having no AA affiliates close by, and ditto for some West Coast and Central teams when it comes to Low A. But for the most part, there will be fewer issues with distance.
I’ve heard the agreements will be significantly longer (maybe up to ten years), and that MLB teams will have “outs” in the agreement, for things like failure on the part of the MiLB team to maintain facility standards. In that case, it wouldn’t be a shuffle/swap kind of situation. Rather, MLB teams could go looking at Independent League teams, or even spin up a new team.
But yeah, no more affiliation shuffle like we’re used to, and those poor geographic pairing like with Fresno shouldn’t happen anymore, aside from West division teams not having a nearby AA league, and Low A leagues not necessarily having close options.
The intention here is for MLB to take full control and save money.
Question about Frederick. It has been a while since i’ve gone up there, but when I was there the stadium was nice and its a great spot. Why is it on the cut list? Built in 1990, in a populated area… makes no sense.
Not to mention that it’s a growing area, unlike Hagerstown.
I think you’re looking for logic, where there is none.
I honestly believe someone made a list with obvious cuts (many Appy and NYPL teams), and came to something like 130 teams remaining, but needed 120 for an even split. So someone just cut an additional 10 teams without any logic or second-thought, except to make sure it wasn’t a team already owned by an MLB team. Frederick isn’t the only inexplicable elimination team. The Erie Seawolves have a relatively new stadium (built in 95) that’s well attended. The Chattanooga Lookouts also have a nice riverfront stadium built in 2000 that is also in the top half of the Southern League in attendance. The Daytona Tortugas have an old park, but it’s well attended (2nd best in the FL State League) in a relatively large market (Daytona Beach). There’s plenty of other examples. Just another example that we’re living in a post-truth world.
Like in musical chairs the re arrangement of old league setups with imported new places like St Paul , Sugarland and low A ball or SS cities bumped up in the alphabet grade might just leave a place like Frederick off 70 out of the musical chairs dance !??
This still remains a bizarre mess. Part of the supposed “logic” of doing such a dramatic overhaul should be to realign teams, leagues and affiliations to make some geographic sense. It’s hard to see any of that sense in play in the suspected haphazard reshuffling. Even with the proposed six-team Mid-Atlantic League, you’re still leaving awfully long bus rides deep into Upstate NY while abandoning much more logical stops like Frederick. The IL still spans more than 1,000 miles, while the PCL reaches about 2,000. That’s nuts. But then all of this is nuts.
I would not rule out Triple-A interleague play, as way to offset some particularly long trips in both leagues.
Right? There is a very clear need to reform MiLB. The leagues grew organically over a century and now makes no sense. If we go through this reform, and DON’T fix the logistical and geographic irrationalities, then this is just about the dumbest exercise ever.
Nashville, Memphis and Iowa are still planned to be part of the Pacific Coast League! Meanwhile, the Southern League (which contains the eminently proximate Bowling Green Hot Rods and Tennessee Smokies, will contract by 3 teams. And the International League has teams surrounding Tennessee, in Georgia, North Carolina and Kentucky. Maybe either League would be a better place for these three teams? Meanwhile, actual Pacific Coast teams, like Fresno, are getting shuffled to low A. None of this makes any sense.
So in essence much of this musical chairs of de – affiliation
And former Indy league sites becoming affiliations reminds us of the family member losing @ Monopoly this taking the board and all the game pieces on into towards the ceiling . Basically saying we’re starting over from scratch
Out old paradigms and in with the new .
It’s not personal .. it’s business says Michael Correlone ..
It makes less than no sense for the Orioles to continue their associations with Aberdeen and Delmarva, while terminating Frederick. For travel purposes, those three cities are close enough so that any of them would be a suitable option to play in the Carolina League or the Sally League or whatever the name will be of the new middle Atlantic Class A League. So, it’s not a travel issue.
Frederick’s support and facilities are better than (or at worst equal to) the Delmarva and Aberdeen support and facilities.
In 2019, the Frederick Key averaged 4,392 per game (4,297 in 2018). Delmarva averaged 3,264 (3,097 in 2018). Aberdeen averaged 3,199 (3,483 in 2018). Further, the Frederick facility is superior to Delmarva’s and on par with the Aberdeen facility.
With Hagerstown dropping out as a Nat affliate, would think it would be a natural for the Nats to pick up Frederick as its Low A affiliate, given its proximity to DC, the fact the Frederick is in the Nats’ media market, and the possible decision of the Orioles to kick Frederick to the curb. This seems like a no-brainer for the Nats if Frederick becomes available (understanding that Frederick would need to change leagues as the Nats are clearly staying with F’burg for High Class A).
A 4 team system of Frederick-F’burg-H’burg-Rochester would be close to ideal, with the hope that the Nats ultimately could get a AAA affiliate in Richmond, if they ever build a new facility.
Scuttlebutt is the Nats could gain Richmond as their Triple-A affiliate, but the Giants are pushing back. I figure the Giants are probably looking for an inducement to drop their objections (although MLB will ultimately decide) since it’s not like Richmond is a convenient spot for them; having an affiliate in the Texas League instead of the Eastern League would cut back on their travel time and costs considerably.