Offseason Update: Sept. 15, 2020
Ordinarily, I’d be using a pic of Spike here to talk about the state of the system or some other wrapup of the minor-league season that just finished. But there was no season in 2020 and there’s no certainty that there’ll be one in 2021. Probability? Sure. But certainty?
As my “father” once said, “Search your feelings and you know it to be true.”
Right now, the immediate concern is the reorganization (absorption) of MiLB by (into) MLB. In my opinion, everything else is secondary: The draft, college baseball, winter baseball, international scouting – all of it is going to hinge on how that turns out.
I hope that we’ll get some answers soon, but I think what’s going to happen is MLB will allow the agreement to expire, then negotiate with the minor-league team owners individually. There has been some talk of lawsuits, particularly in instances where public monies were spent on stadiums in exchange for extended leases, but I have to wonder how much stomach attorneys general will have in pursuing these cases, given the current economic and political climates.
In the meantime, the goal is to keep the lights on with a weekly post. Just about every usual offseason milestone doesn’t really apply, given that we’re more than a calendar year into the current offseason. Even if you count the three weeks of spring training before the world went to hell, we’re still more than six months into whatever we’re in now (post-preseason? pre-offseason? limbo?).
There will be no season reviews, no AFL, no truly new watchlist; 2021 is probably just going to be the 2020 list plus 2020 draft picks minus 2020 graduates, not unlike the Top 30 lists for BA and MLB Pipeline over the past few months.
Like 2020 itself, this is all new and we’re just trying to muddle through.
MLB owners have lost many millions of $ this year. How many of them will be willing to purchase MiLB franchises? I do hope the Lerners do pick up a AAA team. What seems likely is that there will be fewer MiLB teams and thus fewer opportunities for guys to be signed and a shortened period for them to show progress before they are dropped from the rosters. Will independent leagues take up the slack?
It will be interesting to see what they do about spring training also. Prior to 2020, we would go the practice fields in the morning and either go to the major league game or a minor league game in the afternoon. This year they would not let people back to the practice fields when there was a major league game (the metal detectors were moved). I’m wondering if they will have anything open to the public next year.
Spike lives!
I don’t like to plug my own stuff very often, but KW was just asking about minor league alignment scenarios the other day and I spent part of my evening putting something together: https://www.talknats.com/2020/09/15/minor-leagues-look-like-2021/
In terms of my general thoughts on this: As I’ve said before, yeah, it sucks, and it especially sucks given the growing wealth disparity in this country, which isn’t just between people or households, but between businesses as well. MLB gets the whole pie and the minor leagues don’t even get a slice, just crumbs. But this is still a smaller contraction for the minors than they underwent after World War II and into the 1950s, when entire classifications were wiped out. While the idea of a top-drawing team in a moderately sized town like Frederick or Erie losing its affiliation really sucks, it’s hard to argue with a straight face that Auburn or Hagerstown really support their team when they’re having a good day if 1,000 fans buy tickets to a game. I think some of the contractions are (unfortunately) a long time coming, but overall, I think it’s a cynical power grab by MLB and while it might make dollars-and-sense, it only further tarnishes the brand of a sport that’s already trending in the wrong direction.
The contraction of the 1950s wasn’t unilaterally imposed – the Korean War, the growth of movies, television, and the suburbs were all factors, not to mention the expansion of MLB and the threats of the Pacific Coast League (real) and the Continental League (perceived).
I agree that geographical realignment was necessary and long overdue, but disagree strongly that the cuts needed to be this deep. Not when the industry is making TEN BILLION DOLLARS A YEAR and enjoys an anti-trust exemption that has conferred billions, if not trillions, of dollars of savings/value over the past 98 years.
MLB, which may have the only PR staff more tone-deaf than Washington’s, should have anticipated the hitlist being leaked and been ready with a plan with specifics. It would have been a slam dunk to declare that the Appalachian League would become the first sanctioned wood-bat league for NDFAs, which it could have announced in conjunction with the reduction of the number of rounds in the draft.
BAM! You win points with the public and starve the indys just a little bit. Need more teams? Do the same with the Northwest League.* THEN you can cherry-pick from the remaining teams to reconfigure as needed.
* As Sao noted, it tends to rain a little bit in April in Oregon, Washington, and Idaho.
Obviously, there is no perfect plan for this. But it’s hard to imagine f_cking this up worse than they have already.
Keep in mind WW2 got in the way of Bill Veeck discussing moving the STL Browns to California . ( Maybe the cabal didn’t want to tip off the future to the name Browns in Cali plans )
What if New York City and Jersey still had 3 teams ??
Post Eaton Nats outfield ?? Is there a mystery guy Rizzo has his eyes on ??
I have little faith that MLB will have this ready to go for the 2021 season. I’m a season ticket holder in Harrisburg. I’ve asked what’s going on but they know nothing, no surprise! I wonder what changes MLB will make and will our team still be AA and will we still be affiliated with the Nats?
So many questions! UGH!
How long will it take MLB to complete this reorganization and will it be ready for the 2021 season?
With the issues with the virus and seeing no end in sight without a vaccine, will the owners opt to have another season of the alternate site?
Was that financially beneficial for them?
I guess all we can do is keep our fingers crossed that somehow this all works out. Hoping we get some answers soon!
The agreement between MLB and MiLB expires after this season, so they have to have *something* ready to go for 2021.
Sao — there’s a fatal flaw with your plan: it’s too logical, meaning anything closely resembling it is probably doomed.
I also agree with Luke that the cuts didn’t/don’t have to be this deep. And Mark keeps pointing out the longer developmental time MLB players require vs. those in other major sports. Other things are in play, including the generational ties that some towns have to their franchises, and the investment many of the places have made in new or improved stadiums.
Yes, there has long been a need for league geographical realignment, some contraction, and MLB farm club relocation/reallocation. The Nats never should have been made to take Fresno. (But they won the World Series that year anyway! Mostly by keeping the players they really needed in Harrisburg . . .) But-but-but what’s being done seems so ham-handed and arbitrary. There’s really no reason to trust that any of the right decisions will be made.
I’ll add that I’ll bet that there are a lot of folks who work for the teams who work in player development who are pissed about this as well. If you eliminate tiers of the established player-development system, then you totally shake up their model and make their jobs harder.
Look at the positives, with only 4 minor league teams per MLB franchise, that’s a lot less work for Luke when summarizing the Nats’ daily minor league results!
Any news on instructs? Invites and such
Nope. Only that the Nats plan to hold them, and we’re not sure if that’s in Florida or Fredericksburg.