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MiLB All But Concedes Defeat with O’Conner Retirement

In an unmistakable signal that MiLB is no longer negotiating for its survival—just its surrender—MiLB President Pat O’Conner has resigned.

The move comes after O’Conner had changed negotiating teams three times in roughly the space of three weeks last month. As BA noted in its story, the unmistakable signal from both MLB and MiLB owners was that O’Conner’s push to retain his power and MiLB’s independence was the proverbial sticking point.

All that remains is for the billionaires to haggle with the millionaires over how they will exploit the players and extort the cities and counties going forward.

MLB will undoubtedly thank O’Conner for his service, as BA did, while asking him to make sure the MiLB employees and the offices in St. Petersburg are both packed up and cleaned out.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR FANS OF MINOR-LEAGUE BASEBALL?
That remains to be seen. Much will depend on how willing MLB is to assume ownership of the franchises (a.k.a. teams). I believe some MiLB owners will want to sell and some MLB organizations will want to buy, while others will be content to continue with a functional equivalent.

The tipping point will probably be how expensive the upgrades will be. While some folks believe that cities and counties will be falling all over themselves to retain affiliation, ignorant of the most severe economic downturn since the 1930s, what’s more likely is that MiLB owners will be told by cities and counties to “pay for it yourself” because the money is simply not there.

This is where BA has suggested that MLB will intervene and pay for those upgrades in exchange for an ownership stake, a percentage of fees, or both. Again, the extent of those upgrades has been kept secret from so it’s really impossible to speculate further. And that’s assuming that the upgrades weren’t just a negotiation ploy.

About the only thing that seems certain is that the minors as we knew them are gone.

19 Commments

    1. Not sure they’ll need to anymore. MLB has been adamant about more geographical continuity. I’ve seen suggestions of reviving the American Association to create a third AAA league, swaps between AA and AAA to further reduce the footprint. Odds are pretty good that the Nats will be assigned a team at least two time zones closer.

      We’re pretty the ‘burgs (Harris and Fredericks) will be among the 120, but I don’t think we can presume they’ll stay in the Eastern and Carolina Leagues, respectively. Given Herr Manfred’s (total lack of) respect for history, we probably shouldn’t even think that the league names won’t change in both name and size.

      To that end, you can probably take it to the bank that the Low-A leagues will be radically changed. Hagerstown is deader than a Civil Rights bill (or pretty much any bill) on Mitch McConnell’s desk, but part of the reason it survived was its utility as a central location between the southern tier and the western tier of the Sally League. With the Legends debunked and the Power shorted (hey, I got a reputation to keep down), you could make an eight-team league just out of the remaining teams in the Carolinas and Georgia.

      There are obviously lots of other possibilities. The supposed “survivors” from the NYPL and the Appy League — Aberdeen, Pulaski, Hudson Valley, West Virginia — complicate matters because it’s not clear what’s the intent. It’s also not clear that the “hit list” hasn’t changed.

  2. RIP , Bob Sebra . Expos traded with Texas involving Pete “ high sox “ Incavilia
    Christian father and outstanding
    Citizen .

  3. Nats call up 32 year-old Yadiel Hernandez. There have been lots of strong Yaddy supporters here. The DH role would seem to suit him well.

  4. I’m reminded after reading this of a stat that shows how shortsighted Manfred and the rest of MLB is. Here are the average ages of rookies across sports:
    NBA — 20 Years old
    NHL — 2O
    NFL — 21.7

    MLB Hitters — 24.4 Years old
    MLB Pitchers — 25.3 Years old

    This just in — Baseball is a very hard skill to learn

  5. I’ve gamed out a few scenarios previously for how the trim down to 120 teams could play out, but the “easiest” way I see to do it in terms of geographic alignment is de-affiliate the vast majority of the Appalachian and Pioneer league teams (the West Virginia and East Tennessee teams could potentially fit into leagues based in the Carolinas and/or mid-Atlantic; most of Pioneer territory is a schlep from everywhere, but Idaho Falls could potentially fit into a full-season Northwest League), ditch most of the Florida State League teams in favor of expanded complex play, and cull the remaining 10 to 20 teams mostly from the New York-Penn and South Atlantic leagues.

    FSL attendance is atrocious (only two teams, Daytona and Clearwater, averaged more than 2,000 per game last year), and most of those ballparks are also being used for XST and GCL play, making scheduling a hassle, not to mention the weather in summer is brutal and rainouts are very frequent. Daytona, which has its own ballpark and is just a couple hours south of Jacksonville, could potentially be spared and simply folded into a Southeastern or pan-Southern league.

    If MLB doesn’t want to liquidate the twelve-team FSL for whatever reason, the math gets quite a bit more painful, with more teams that actually draw a crowd facing the axe. That’s really borne out in the “kill list” from last year, which had just two FSL teams (including Daytona, oddly enough) on the chopping block and also had some bizarre inclusions like Frederick, which is the top-drawing team in the Carolina League; Lancaster, which plays in a very big, very nice ballpark and is centrally located in the California League; and Chattanooga, one of the oldest and most storied teams in MiLB and not a poor draw itself.

    1. I’ve played around with some scenarios as well. Have you made any fully fleshed-out plans? I’d love to seem them if you’re willing to share, but understood if not. I’ve thought about spinning up a disposable Google account and putting mine up as public docs.

      I’ve read the Appalachian League has already started the process of switching over to college wood league, so I haven’t even bothered trying to include them anymore.

      Some others I’ve found:

      Johns Hopkins: https://releases.jhu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Minor-League-Baseball-Realignment-v5-03-18-20.pdf

      https://medium.com/@marklavis/a-seismic-minor-league-baseball-realignment-scenario-c9187173239a

      1. Here’s one I posted in April over at NAR, keeping the FSL mostly intact:

        Triple-A:
        Pacific Coast League (14): Wichita, Albuquerque, Des Moines, Oklahoma City, Omaha, St. Paul, Tacoma, Reno, Sacramento, Round Rock, San Antonio, El Paso, Las Vegas, Salt Lake City
        American Association (16): Nashville, Columbus, Durham, Memphis, Syracuse, Buffalo, Pawtucket, Rochester, Lehigh Valley, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Charlotte, Norfolk, Gwinnett, Indianapolis, Louisville, Toledo

        Double-A:
        Eastern League (12): Brooklyn, Hartford, Harrisburg, Manchester, Portland (ME), Reading, Trenton, Akron, Altoona, Lakewood (NJ), Hudson Valley, Albany (NY)
        Southern League (10): Little Rock, Bowling Green, Birmingham, Montgomery, Pearl (MS), Knoxville, Madison (AL), Biloxi, Pensacola, Jacksonville
        Texas League (8): Sugar Land, Corpus Christi, Tulsa, Amarillo, Frisco, Midland (TX), Springfield (MO), Springdale (AR)

        High-A:
        California League (8): Modesto, San Jose, Stockton, San Bernardino, Visalia, Lake Elsinore, Rancho Cucamonga, Fresno
        Northwest League (6): Eugene, Hillsboro, Vancouver (BC), Everett, Spokane, Boise
        Carolina League (16): Greensboro, Zebulon (NC), Kinston (NC), Fayetteville (NC), Myrtle Beach, Winston-Salem, Asheville, Kannapolis, Charleston (SC), Columbia, Hickory, Greenville, Rome, Augusta, Richmond, Salem (VA)

        Low-A:
        Florida State League (10): Clearwater, Dunedin, Port Charlotte, Tampa, Lakeland, Fort Myers, Jupiter, Palm Beach, Port St. Lucie, Bradenton
        Mid-Atlantic League (8): Fredericksburg, Lynchburg, Pulaski (WV), Delmarva, Morgantown (WV), Wilmington (DE), Aberdeen, Bowie
        Midwest League (12): Dayton, Eastlake (OH), Grand Rapids, Midland (MI), Fort Wayne, Lansing, South Bend, Beloit, Appleton, Peoria, Geneva (IL), Cedar Rapids

        And another, killing off the FSL and making some more dramatic changes, including bumping the short-season NWL up to Double-A play:

        Triple-A:
        Pacific Coast League (8): Reno, Sacramento, Las Vegas, Albuquerque, Fresno, Salt Lake City, Colorado Springs, El Paso
        American Association (12): Omaha, Des Moines, Indianapolis, Louisville, Dayton, Columbus, Toledo, Nashville, Memphis, Wichita, Oklahoma City, Springfield (MO)
        International League (10): Buffalo, Syracuse, Rochester, Worcester, Lehigh Valley, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Norfolk, Richmond, Charlotte, Durham

        Double-A:
        Texas League (10): Round Rock, San Antonio, Sugar Land*, Frisco, Amarillo, Tulsa, Corpus Christi, Little Rock, Tulsa, Springdale (AR)
        Eastern League (12): Brooklyn, Hartford, Manchester, Harrisburg, Staten Island, Reading, Portland (ME), Trenton, State College, Hudson Valley, Tri-City (NY), Lowell
        Northwest League (8): Hillsboro, Eugene, Tacoma, Vancouver, Spokane, Everett, Boise, Idaho Falls

        High-A:
        Southern League (12): Birmingham, Chattanooga, Gwinnett, Rome, Augusta, Jacksonville, Pensacola, Madison (AL), Montgomery, Sevierville, Daytona (FL), Jackson (TN)
        Mid-Atlantic League (8): Delmarva, Wilmington (DE), Frederick, Bowie, Aberdeen, Fredericksburg, Morgantown, Lakewood (NJ)
        Great Lakes League (10): South Bend, Fort Wayne, Eastlake (OH), Akron, Mahoning Valley, Grand Rapids, Midland (MI), Lansing, Erie, Altoona

        Low-A:
        Midwest League (6): Cedar Rapids, Appleton, Peoria, Geneva (IL), Quad Cities, Schaumburg*
        California League (8): Modesto, San Jose, Stockton, San Bernardino, Visalia, Lake Elsinore, Rancho Cucamonga, Lancaster
        Carolina League (8): Fayetteville, Winston-Salem, Myrtle Beach, Greenville, Greensboro, Columbia, Charleston (SC), Kinston (NC)
        Appalachian League (8): Pulaski, Lexington, Bowling Green, Salem (VA), Asheville, Johnson City, Charleston (WV), Hickory (NC)

        1. Thanks very much for sharing. I really like playing around with these scenarios, and love seeing other perspectives.

          I especially like the idea of dumping the FSL, for a few reasons. Bad attendance and terrible weather in the latter half of the season. It’s also kind of an advantage for those parent clubs to be able to rehab players at their ST facilities and have the option for rehab games, so this would take that option away.

          I also like the idea of making affiliate cuts to MLB-owned teams whenever possible, saving a few independently-owned franchises whenever possible. I’ve played around with dropping Carolina, Salem and Down East in the current Carolina League. Those purchases were motivated in part by an effort to avoid affiliating with one of the “bad” California League teams (BA had a nice writeup about this a few weeks ago), and I don’t think the MLB teams would miss them all that much.

  6. Does anyone still have links to the original hit lists of teams and leagues? I assume that’s sort of going to become the fait accompli, perhaps with an adjustment or two. I remember there being some shocks on the list, like Lexington, KY, which has a relatively new ballpark and a nice-sized city with easy interstate access.

    The new Fredericksburg park, with only 5,000 seats, seems too small to promote much higher than A+.

    I would guess that the level of play/player at AA and AAA will remain about the same. It will be at the lower levels where this is more of a squeeze . . . and perhaps less time for players to develop, particularly high school draftees. Souza, Taylor, and Reetz (among many others) all repeated levels before things clicked for them.

  7. This is the kind of thing that would normally provide bipartisan outrage in Congress.

    MLB is really taking advantage of the pandemic to save 50 cents here and there and lower the quality of their product.

  8. Sure would be good if MLB would pitch some of those pennies they’re supposedly saving into a pool for the NCAA to fund more baseball scholarships beyond the current 11.7 limit, but I don’t see that happening. Mark is right that player development really is going to suffer. Will more independent leagues spring up? Of course independent ownership of so many minor-league teams has made them quasi-independent anyway, although with on-field salary covered by the MLB teams. Anyway, it’s going to be a lot more difficult for players to have a path to develop.

  9. I also wonder if the NCAA could modify rules for the wood-bat summer leagues to allow undrafted players to participate if they’re not drafted by pro teams. There would seem to be a real market for something to “replace” the rookie leagues as basically tryouts for guys not thought worthy of the top five rounds.

  10. One thought I keep turning over: a six-team league across an area as expansive as the Pacific Northwest just ain’t viable. Way too much travel involved, especially if the cities you’re keeping are in Eastern Washington and Idaho; maybe it’s one thing if it’s just the I-5 corridor, but Vancouver to Boise is a schlep.

    So the idea I keep circling back to, since it seems like the teams in Pasco, Washington, and Keizer, Oregon, are DOA in this 120-team configuration (they barely draw and their ballparks are subpar), is dropping Tacoma from Triple-A down to whatever level the new Northwest League is, and likely bringing in Idaho Falls. Tacoma has the smallest park in the PCL, actually smaller than a couple of the Northwest League parks, and it fits right into the area geographically. (In fact, if you calve off not only Fresno but also Sacramento from the PCL, well, you might have to call the league something different, but you wouldn’t have Triple-A teams traveling west of the Sierra Nevadas.) Idaho Falls would be the furthest east city in the Northwest League by some measure, but it’s still west of the Rockies (in other words, you wouldn’t need a plane) and it has probably the nicest park in the Pioneer League, give or take the one in Colorado Springs, which used to be a Triple-A facility; the team also enjoys pretty good attendance.

    What might be tricky is divisions; Vancouver, Everett, Tacoma, Hillsboro, and Eugene are all west of the Cascades, whereas Spokane, Boise, and Idaho Falls are within view of the Rockies. They’d probably go with a north/south alignment in which Vancouver, Everett, Tacoma, and Spokane are one division and Hillsboro, Eugene, Boise, and Idaho Falls are the other. That’s not all that dissimilar from the alignment that exists now, although it’s a little less road time for the Washington and Idaho teams and substantially more for the Oregon teams.

  11. In terms of some “dark horses” to come in from indy ball…

    It’s been rumored the St. Paul Saints aren’t interested in an affiliation, but I don’t know I buy that given they’re hosting the Twins’ minor leaguers already. Obviously, swinging an affiliation deal with St. Paul, just across the Mississippi River, would be a huge coup for the Twins and would make Triple-A transactions far, far easier than they are now with the affiliate in Rochester, New York.

    I noted back in April the possibility of the Schaumburg Boomers, one of the best draws in indy ball, becoming an affiliated team — lo and behold, they’re the alternate training site for the White Sox now. Unlike St. Paul, Schaumburg feels more like a Single-A town, and it seems like it could fit nicely into a revamped Midwest League, especially if last year’s reports that the Midwest League is looking to essentially withdraw from Iowa are accurate.

    But maybe the one I find most interesting is that the Kansas City T-Bones, which have a somewhat checkered history as an independent business, are hosting the Royals’ minor leaguers this season. What a coup for the Royals it would be to have their Triple-A affiliate just on the other side of the Missouri River, and for the T-Bones, who have struggled to pay the bills and actually were temporarily evicted last year, that might be a very beneficial relationship. I haven’t seen this possibility discussed elsewhere, but my ears definitely perked up when they came to terms on the deal for Kansas City, Kansas, to be the alternate training site. (I would also enjoy the transaction logs with players being selected to Kansas City from Triple-A Kansas City.)

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