From the Archives: June 17
The Nats will reportedly pay its minor-leaguers through September, ostensibly to avoid another PR fiasco, which I realize is redundant; the next PR-savvy move Washington makes will the first. As one person noted in the comments at Hardball Talk, Kansas City has signed an inordinate number of highly-rated undrafted prospects, which may be attributable to its stance of committing to pay its players and staff through the season from the onset of the pandemic. Thus, the Nats’ decision may simply be a ham-handed attempt to level the playing field for acquiring future talent.
Syracuse 17 Lehigh Valley 9 – 2017
• Voth 5IP, 6H, 6R, 5ER, 2BB, 1K, 2HR
• Martin (W, 2-1) ⅔ IP, 0H, 0R, 0BB, 0K, 2-1 IR-S
• Stevenson 3-4, 3R, 2B, 3B, BB, 2RBI
• Snyder 3-5, 2R, 2B, HR, 6RBI, BB
• Difo 3-6, 2R, 2B, RBI
The Chiefs got to see a bullpen meltdown from the dugout instead of the field as the IronPigs gave up 10 runs to give Syracuse a 17-9 win. Austin Voth raised his ERA with six runs and on six hits and two Taylor Hills over five innings. Erick Fedde recorded his first AA blown save while Rafael Martin vultured the win with the last two outs in the 8th after letting in the ninth Lehigh Valley run. Brandon Snyder singled, doubled, and delivered an Earl Weaver special in the 9th for six RBIs to lead the Chiefs’ 18-hit outburst. This would be just the 21st of 54 wins that season for Syracuse, which finished dead last in 2016 and 2017 and barely avoided a third straight season in 2018.
Harrisburg 3 Trenton 2 – 2011
• Roark (W, 4-2) 6IP, 7H, 2ER, 0BB, 3K
• Barthmaier (H, 2) 1⅓ IP, 0R, 0BB, 2K, 1-0 IR-S
• Lombardozzi 2-4, 2R, BB
• Moore 1-5, 3B, RBI
Steve Lombardozzi offered another strong leadoff performance with a first-inning single, scoring on Tyler Moore triple for the first run of the game. Trenton answered with two runs with a leadoff single from Raymond Kruml and a run-scoring double from Bradley “Not So” Suttle. Derek Norris gave up a passed ball to help Suttle advance to third, and Suttle scored an earned run on a Cody Johnson single. Harrisburg battled back with two runs in the top of the 7th and yet again Lombardozzi was at the center of the rally. Jonathan Tucker singled, advanced on a balk, and Lombardozzi singled on a grounder. Josh Johnson than landed the decisive punch with a one-out double to score both Tucker and Lombardozzi. Following a strong seven innings of two-run ball, Jimmy Barthmaier stranded a leadoff single against Roark as part of a strong four-out appearance. Pat McCoy and Rafael Martin combined to silence the Thunder for the last five outs to earn hold no. 5 and save no. 1, respectively. Conversely, Harrisburg was in the midst of its last 80-win season, which ended with a sweep on the road by second-place Richmond as the series was delayed two days due to Tropical Storm Lee and City Island Field was flooded.
Myrtle Beach 2 Potomac 1 – 2012
• Holder (L, 3-2) 7⅔ IP, 7H, 2R, 2ER, BB, K
• Testa ⅓ IP, 0H, 0R, 0BB, 0K
• Walters 2-4, R, HR, RBI
• Ramirez 2-3
Potomac ran themselves out of the 9th inning, as J.P. Ramirez was gunned down on a would-be sac fly to left and Kevin Keyes trying to score from second on an infield hit by Michael Taylor, ending the game on a 2-1 score in favor of Myrtle Beach. Zach Walters accounted for the sole P-Nats run with his 5th HR. Trevor Holder was the tough-luck LP, allowing both Pelican runs (one unearned) on seven hits and a walk. The wheels came off the bus for Potomac in 2012 (64-75) after a five-year run of winning seasons, with three playoff appearances (2008, 2010, 2011) and two Mills Cup Championships (2008, 2010).
Hagerstown 9 Lakewood 6 – 2013
• Purke 4⅔ IP, 4H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 2K, WP
• Meza (W, 1-0) 1⅓ IP, 0H, 0R, BB, 2K
• Benincasa (SV, 10) 1IP, 0H, 0R, 0BB, 2K
• Renda 2-4, 2R, 2B, BB, SB
• Norfork 2-5, R, 2-2B, RBI
• Martinez 2-3, 2R, 2-2B, BB
In an improbable turn of events, the Suns won the first half with a 9-6 win over Lakewood by a half game over Hickory. Starter Matt Purke turned in four and 2/3rds innings of work, allowing two runs on four hits and two walks while striking out two. Christian Meza got the win in relief, walking one and striking out two over an inning and a 1/3rd. Tony Renda doubled once, tying for the league lead at 24, while Khayyan Norfork and Estarlin Martinez both doubled twice as the Suns pounded out 12 hits total. With the Sally League’s arbitrary predetermined playoff format, Hagerstown hosts Games Two and Three (if necessary) of the Semifinals, and should they advance, Games One and Two of the Finals. For those wondering, the Suns took four of seven games from Hickory during the first half and play them six times in the second half. A year later, Hagerstown would lose the first half on a tiebreaker as the Greensboro Grasshoppers would win the last 10 games of the half, including a sweep of the Suns.
Batavia 11 Auburn 6 – 2018
• Ramirez (L, 0-1) 4+ IP, 5H, 7R, 5ER, 3BB, 1K, 2HBP
• Guillen 2IP, 3H, R, ER, BB, 3K, 3-3 IR-S
• Agustin 1-3, R, HR, RBI
• Reynolds 2-3, R, BB
• Pineda 2-4, 2RBI
A five-run 5th broke open a 3-2 game as Batavia evened up the series with an 11-6 win. Yonathan Ramirez’s 19th NYPL start since 2016 was another disappointment as he was charged with seven runs on five hits and three walks over four-plus innings. He hit two batters and struck out one. Telmito Agustin homered while Matt Reynolds singled twice and walked once. Among the non-rehabs, 18-y.o. Israel Pineda drove in two while going 2-for-4. 2018 would end a five-year playoff drought for Auburn, which began its affiliation with the Nationals with an NYPL title run in 2011. The Doubledays would be swept in the best-of-three series by the Renegades – the only two games between Auburn and Hudson Valley that season.
The disparity in the number and quality of post-draft FA signings is weird, to say the least. Here is a tracker of all 30 teams:
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2020-mlb-undrafted-free-agent-tracker-agreements-for-all-30-teams/
Some organizations have already signed around 10 players, but most are like the Nats, with only a small handful. The Dodgers, who always have a great minor-league organization, have only signed one. Of the three the Nats have signed thus far, only Torres looks like more than organizational filler.
What gives? Is everyone just going back to college? Why aren’t the Nats reaping the benefit from their much-much-much touted scouting staff, particularly in the Southwest?
I would guess every college junior not drafted will return for their senior year, since $20k is such a comically low amount of money, that finishing your degree and having fun in college for another year is greatly outweighed by that signing bonus.
But that still leaves a bunch of college seniors. If I were the Nats, I’d be shoveling money to every half-decent college senior I could find. The Nationals paid their 6th round pick $266k last year. They could sign 13 players for what it cost to get Jackson Cluff to hit .229 in Hagerstown.
The Red Sox, though, seem to understand the value to be had. They’ve signed 12 players so far, so there are players available. It’s a shame the Nats are missing out on getting players that are essentially free.
Will — I believe everyone in spring sports was granted an extra year of eligibility, including the seniors. Almost no senior — particularly 5th-year senior — on a D1 baseball team will be on any form of scholarship, though, even a partial one. And as I am painfully aware, you can’t send a kid to college anywhere (except JUCO) for $20K a year, or even close to that.
One real unknown in all of this is what form the 2021 draft will take, but I would bet that we’re looking at something close to the new normal. Maybe they go back up to 10 rounds, but that’s the most I think it will be. The union has too many other fights to fight besides this one. Teams will realize they like doing this on the cheap plus being unlimited on who they can sign.
Anyway, if college players are gambling that they can be drafted in 2021 and reap a Cluff-like windfall, I think that’s going to be a losing bet for most of them. I predict that the draft will still be short, and that it will be stacked. Seniors, either 4th-year or 5th-year, will only be taken in Lindsly-like situations where they’ll just get the $20K anyway.
One real unknown in all of this is what form the 2021 draft will take…
[yoda]No, another there is. Hmmmm.[/yoda]
We’d like to assume that college baseball will be played in 2021 at something like the pre-pandemic normality* But the NCAA money machine has already taken a massive hit with the cancellation of the men’s basketball tourney in March, and that’s already claimed a couple of programs (e.g. Bowling Green, Furman). If college football doesn’t happen in 2020— and let’s not forget that many of the major programs are located in the very states that are seeing a resurgence in cases—the hit will be bigger than Oprah, roughly $4.1B according to some folks, there will be a ripple effect, which means more college programs (and not just baseball) will be scuttled in the short term (and most will be unlikely to return).
* It’s amazing to me that few people seem to understand the malapropism “normalcy” was born from the 1919 pandemic as part of President Warren Harding’s 1920 campaign.
Now, I’m not crying any tears over college sports being taken down. I’ve seen how the sausage is made and it ain’t pretty. But MLB’s vision of reducing the minor leagues has always been tacitly dependent on the colleges operating as they always have and shifting the development costs from MLB to the colleges, which means the taxpayers. And we all know that if several major college programs fold or go on hiatus, there will be a ripple effect that leaves fewer opportunities for players to play.
Lots of circumstances are converging to fundamentally change/damage the baseball player development system:
1. Minor league contraction.
2. Pandemic (BTW, there is little reason to think revenues are going to bounce back to pre-COVID levels in 2021; even if fans are allowed to return, which is iffy, the economy will take years to recover, discretionary spending is going to be slashed) lower revenues mean whatever small amounts that are spent on player development will be further reduced.
3. New CBA will need to be negotiated, and the MLBPA has always been willing to screw the minor leaguers and those who are to be drafted and signed when making concessions.
4. Related to the Pandemic, as Luke explained, colleges will be cutting costs and eliminating non-revenue programs, like baseball.
5. MLB Draft likely to be down-sized.
Rather than invest in the future, which requires spending money on player development and growing the game in minor league cities all over the country, MLB is looking to divest itself of all of that R&D investment. Bad move, which may result in some short term relief, but will cause long term problems.
Wow Luke, you’re a brave man to raise “ethical implications” about the OU-Nike deal while at OU. I guess it’s instructive the the thesis resides at Knight library . . .
Frankly, there are some horrifying things going on in the name of getting universities open enough to justify football this fall. Even if they do hold games, there’s no way they’re going to be able to have full stadiums, and a lot of those places make a lot of money off of seat licenses and whatnot . . . although not nearly as much as they make off the TV money, of course.
As far as college baseball is concerned, I think Luke is right that the programs most at risk are those at lower-tier schools like Bowling Green and Furman, not the “Power Five” conference schools. Still, there is liable to be some contraction just as MLB is trying to contract MiLB.
Who gets screwed the most? The players, of course. As we’ve noted, there are very, very few who are actually on a “full ride” in college anyway, with 11.7 scholarships per school that can be divided among 27 players on a 35-man roster. Now the prospects of getting much from getting drafted are also slimmer, although $20K signing bonus is actually more than what a lot of later-round draftees used to get.
KW, I have often wondered if I would have been given the same access and latitude that I was given then at any other time… interviews with the Oregon Athletic Director, starting players (OK, it helped one of them was one a student in the class for which I was a teaching fellow), and a Nike executive – “inside the berm” in Beaverton! It definitely would have been harder just two or three years later, though by then the all-sport contracts had fallen out of, um, fashion.