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NCAA Decision on Eligibility Might Not Be What It Seems


Yesterday, the NCAA essentially declared that 2020 season did not happen, restoring eligibility for all spring sport athlete-students in Division I. Given last week’s news about the 2020 and 2021 drafts being shortened, this seems like a good thing for the players, right?

Well, maybe not.

I’ve never professed to like the Draft, never mind be an expert in its vagaries, but even Stevie Wonder can see there are going to be problems. For starters, they’ve just increased the size of the 2021 talent pool. It might not be 20% or 15% or even 10% but it’ll definitely be larger.

Even if by some miracle there’s a 40-round draft in 2021 (spoiler alert: there won’t be), a larger pool means less leverage for the draftees, who have already been screwed by the MLBPA agreeing to deferred bonuses.

USA Today also points out an ugly scenario:

Certainly, there are going to be a number of spring athletes who are simply done with college and ready to move on, into the work force or a graduate school and don’t want to devote another year of their lives to athletics.

But what happens if an athlete who has already been around four years wants to come back, but the school simply can’t afford it or the coach would rather use the playing time to develop someone else?

This is your semi-annual reminder that the NCAA caps the number of scholarships at 11.7 for Division I baseball teams. And in their ruling yesterday, they did not require schools to renew the scholarships for seniors (or anyone else). So you can pretty much bank on some players who want to play next year being nudged pushed aside… which theoretically increases the talent pool as well.

I wish I could cap off this post with something uplifting or pithy, but I can’t help but think that all of this will only feed into “The Plan” to destroy the minor leagues as we know them.

18 Commments

  1. My friend’s son, who pitches for William & Mary, was incredibly happy about the news. He gets to play another year, which is great.

    Let’s be honest, not every school will handle it the same but there are a lot who will do the right thing.

      1. Luke very interesting blending of compressed demotions , promotions and additions from other orgs ( Broxton big bat @ AA and the Latin RHP from STL chain. Another Eduardo Viera scoop up.
        Now off to the “ Can’t drive 55 “ birthday cake after steaks

        2. Fascinating that Barnum was on a circus career ride thru the Northern League. Chicago 2019…Nats Scouts sure get around …

  2. I’m just continually amazed at the continued short-sightedness of decisions MLB makes with respect to the acquisition of amateur talent.

    Everything in this decision about draft rounds and bonus deferrals is going to impact these players. MLB continues to look for ways to drive down signing bonuses … inexplicably. They’re pushing for an international draft… why? Do htey WANT to destroy player pipelines from places like the DR and Venezuela, much as they did in Puerto Rico?

    1. Is it possible that pipelines are overseen by the sick trafficking of other commodities around the globe mostly in the dark and negative ??

        1. Interesting depth chart below Eric Thames @ 1 b. Drew Ward 4aer, but Keon Barnum should rake a bunch of extra base hits on City Isle. Corredor Pom the inaugural FredNats roster. Along with Mendoza possibly.
          Thoughts aside from all the soul mating with our fav canines , Luke ??

    2. Yeah, the flow of players from Puerto Rico has really dropped since they changed the rules there.

  3. Oh well, at least the teams that tanked for this draft are royally screwed . . .

    Yes, I had many of these same thoughts, about scholarship limits, and who is really a junior or a senior, and a lot of other things. There won’t be cheap senior signees available to fill out rosters because they all could play another year of college . . . albeit likely without a scholarship, which could get expensive. But most probably aren’t on full scholarships anyway, particularly as seniors.

    On the flipside, will colleges have as many full scholarships to offer hot high school prospects if some of their best juniors, who they thought would be turning pro, want to come back for a second junior season?

    But yes, all in all, the ones ending up with less leverage and less signing money from all of this are the players.

  4. I do wonder whether some of the better, later-picking teams, like the Nats, will be tempted to go way over-slot and draft/sign some dropping stud (Boras client) whose price most other teams aren’t willing to meet. That would blow much of your pool money on just one guy, but if it’s the right one guy — and not some injured pitcher and/or headcase!

  5. I’m never going to cheerlead for the Nats to sign a prep pitcher — it’s about the riskiest draft choice you can make — but I’d be watching some of the talented young men whose spring seasons have been wiped out by this ****ing virus, guys like Mick Able, Jared Kelley, and Nick Bitsko. It’ll take an overpay for them to pass up college even if they’re taken in the first round, and honestly, my opinion is the Nats could make better choices, but I think a lot of teams are going to go with “safe” first-round picks to try to save money, which means some top talent that’s riskier (whether to sign, to develop, or both) will slide down the draft board. And it’s never, ever been Mike Rizzo’s style to “play it safe” with a first-round draft pick. He’ll always draft for upside, which means someone like Kelley or Able who looked like they were ticketed for the top ten before this thing rolled around could end up falling to the Nats.

  7. The Nats get a compensation pick for Rendon at the end of the 2d round (because they stayed under the tax line; would have been after the 4th if they hadn’t). With the Trashstros’ forfeited pick, the Nats’ comp pick is #72 overall. Sure doesn’t seem like much for losing a player of Rendon’s caliber, does it?

    Nats’ top picks are #s 22, 56, 72, and 95 overall probably the first time in awhile that they’ve had four in the top 100. With their farm system near the bottom in most talent assessments, they sure need to hit on several of those picks.

    Here is BA’s list with projected slot value, although no one knows what all this “prorated” talk will do to them:

    https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/full-2020-mlb-draft-order-projected-bonus-slot-values/

  8. MLB capped the bonus for those college free agents, those draft-eligible players that are taken in the 5 (or possibly 10) round draft, at $10K. So, there are going to be a ton of guys, in any other year, that would have received a bonus of $25K to $125K (or more) that will either: a) sign for $10K, b) return to college where their part scholly may be committed to another player, c) play indy ball with the expectation that they will get a larger bonus to sign in 2021 (risky), or d) move on from baseball.

    So some prospects, who in other years would’ve been signed and navigated their way to the bigs, will just say screw it, and not get their chance to play MLB. Also, all 2 sports athletes picking between signing with an MLB or going to college on a football scholly, will be playing football this year.

    2. Pilchard, as you and Todd have said, this is self-defeating for baseball. About as short sighted as you can get. We will see roster sizes for college baseball increase next year, but yes, some players will just move on with their lives. What a waste!

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