Thursday’s News & Notes

49 Commments

1. After almost uniformly good pitching performances, we got a stinker of a day.

   Meanwhile Kieboom continues to rake in Fresno.

   Still waiting for the inevitable pitcher shake up, and it’s looking like there needs to be movement at the top to make space for each corresponding move. Can’t help but wonder how short of a leash Scott Copeland and Brady Dragmire have left in Fresno, and Rosenthal and Sipp in DC.

   1. I passed through St Louis yesterday and spoke with a Woman with Cardinals allegiance. I tod her my Nats allegiance and how Rosie is a mess. She rolled her eyes in sympathy.

   2. I said that the other day about Fresno pitching spots being purged for Graduated Sens
      The more chatter from Jeff. The more KW, Sao M and Grissom might type something

   3. Trumpets blare. 24 come on over east. Mr Carter ( K) goes to Washington. Difo needs a breather in utility

      1. Potentially bigger. If Kieboom wields the bat like he has at every minor league level its like adding another Tony 2-bags to the lineup at shortstop. Would Trea Turner return to shortstop or do they move him to 2nd base when he returns? And what do they do with Dozier? Trade him?

   4. Kevin Cron and Tim Locrasto Reno Lumberkings
      3 straight ABs for Cron with ABs. Why not just plunk Cron to make it fun ( as George Carlin would have quipped ??)

2. Raquet = Mooneyham, lefties drafted in the 3d round who can’t get anyone out at Potomac. Maybe time to give him a look in the bullpen? The Borne comeback tour (Re-Borne Identity?) isn’t going too well thus far, either.

   Potomac OF: Upshaw (.108), Banks (.127), Canning (.138). With two hits as the DH, Agustin vaulted to .228.

   Weird stat of the day: Carter Kieboom’s BABIP is an insane .512. Anything above the upper 300s is generally labeled “unsustainable.” His OBP is an amazing .506, despite a 24% K rate, but helped immensely by a 19% walk rate. And yet they called up Noll instead . . .

   1. BABIP is a little bit more complicated. A player COULD sustain a BABIP in the 400 or even 700s if they had an extremely unique batted ball profile, where they basically hit every ball for a line drive.

      The expected BABIP of a line drive is around .700, so if Kieboom is hitting an otherworldly 90% LD%, then his BABIP is “sustainable” but what’s unsustainable is the fact he’s hitting line drives 90% of the time. League average is 20%.

      With that said, Kieboom is “only” hitting 28.3% line drives, which if he did that in the majors last year, he’d have hit the 5th most LDs in baseball. His HR/FB% (21.4%) is also way out of line with career numbers (around 16%), which suggests he’s getting a boost from the high altitude.

      Either way you look at it though, Kieboom is hitting extremely well. Will he be able to sustain a slash of .379/.506/.636? Of course not. Even Mike Trout has never hit that well in a season (though his current stats in 2019 are eerily similar .303/.510/.636). Still, I think now would have been the perfect chance to give Kieboom a shot. If he can immediately hack in the majors, then shift him to 2B when Turner returns. If he can’t, no big deal, send him back to Fresno when Turner returns. He basically had a month audition.

      But now, next time he gets promoted, it’ll be because he’s expected to immediately contribute and for good, placing a lot more pressure on his shoulders.

      1. And if he does hit as he has at every level in the minors? What then do you do with Turner? Put him at second and move Dozier to the bench … or trade him?

   2. Scouting doctrine. Draft 22. Sign 20. Wait on two to surface

3. I agree with Will about giving Kieboom a shot at SS while Turner is out and at 3B while Rendon is out. It would enhance negotiations with both parties long term. Can send him down as need be when players get back on the field, and accelerated promotions of stars have worked in recent years.

   The Nationals are lucky to be this close with the key injuries and underperformance of Soto in the middle of the lineup and the lineup in general.

   1. Soto is on pace for 28 HRs and 120 RBIs with an OPS of .828. I’ll take that level “underperformance” any time.

      1. Not to win a WS at the heart of the lineup you won’t. You watch all the games and so you have to admit you expected More at this point, and we all did.

         He is clearly not yet adjusted to the league’s adjustment to him. He will, but the team needs more of him as the marquee bat.

   2. Soto’s OBP is .382 and his OPS is over .800. They are doing to Soto what they did with Harper. Not giving him anything good to hit because there’s no one there to make them. If Kieboom is another Tony 2-bags type then perhaps that changes? Guess we’ll see?

4. As for the lower minors, it’s now or never for Banks, so if they are going to cut bait on a high draft pick they will give him more time to rebound, especially since he fared far better at Potomac last year. It’s still April. Let’s see where is in in June. Canning got a fast promotion and he is striking out waaaay too much.

   Upshaw is another story and a lottery ticket they will have to consider demoting if need be to finally harvest his physical tools with better success at the plate. The successes of CF at Hagerstown may dictate whether such a swap takes place. But Wilson is still struggling. Rhinesmith has righted the ship but is a corner OF (so is Canning) and Connell is new and still taking on the level. So Upshaw will get his chances as well.

   I’ve never had love for Cole Freeman, but he is near the top of the league in runs, doubles, OBP, and SB while playing errorless 2B. As a finished college product that is not shocking at A+, but if the Carolina League were cake, why does Banks middle along? So Freeman May have something that gets overlooked for his height. When you consider the Potomac won loss and how poor their offense has been otherwise, Freeman is a more than meets the eye guy.

   1. Cane I know you meant to type ” muddle along “.
      Bummmer about Banks. Great guy but muddling above Mendoza marker doesn’t cut the mustard .
      Tend to agree with y’all in Carter. Bengie G andSardinas can do the SS dance with Reynolds .
      Auditions for arms should last until about the June draft.
      Back to back matinees for big club. Interesting scheduling …

   2. Is Upshaw a raw Otis Nixon we have time and patience to expel on??

      1. Otis was Billy Hamilton with better bat and slower wheels. Upshaw is A body and an athlete that they are trying to turn into a multi-tool talent. In some respects he would be thought of as a high school product. Many of those fall far shorter than A+. So he’s shown enough to believe he is more than those.

         1. Vague comparison on Nixon but the whole have leather will elevate applies for now. Astro turf in MTL helped Nixon in Buck Rodgers offense when Davey there too

         2. Cane. But Nixon knew how to swipe the pillows ( as FP might say ). I would catch grief in today’s culture for saying chrome hubcaps

   3. I’ve never understood the adulation that Banks has gotten. He’s not a good fielder, has a weak arm, and takes plays off on the base paths. He’s never had an OPS higher than Lg. Avg., which is especially telling because he has always been old for the level. As folks should know, I don’t give a rat’s ass about draft position or signing bonus aside from the effect it has on playing time, i.e. getting more PAs or IPs than warranted.

      1. Banks was one of those you take a flier on in draft and see what rises

         1. Unfortunately, everything sank.

   4. Then inquiring minds wonder about O’koy- yeah Dickson and his status parked on Auburn / XST scrolls

   5. Interesting to see how F troop produces with out CarterK in the two or three hole . We know Snyder will not slow down

5. Bad day down on the farm. Not a good day for the big league club, either.

   Regardless of Kieboom’s crazy peripherals, the Nats have to call him up. They need something to get them going.

   1. Everyday is a good day in player development. Every scouting report brings up new intel .

6. I’ve jumped up and down about the Kieboom call-up question so much that I won’t get into it too deeply again. It makes NO sense that he hasn’t gotten the call, and doubly no sense with Rendon out for (hopefully just) a few days. Does Kieboom have some issues defensively at shortstop? Yes. But he has played the position nearly full time as a pro, and as a high-schooler, so it’s not like he can’t function there. As for service time, it can be recouped when Turner is back . . . unless there’s still a black hole at 2B.

7. Carter Kieboom played 2B last night after playing SS in each game since April 18.

   Wonder if that means that the Nats feel like Turner will be coming back soon enough so that there is no chance Kieboom will be called up to play SS before Turner comes back. Or maybe the Nats just like to move Kieboom around the infield so that he is comfortable at either spot.

   Previously thought that the Nats may have been playing CK at SS with the idea of calling him up soon if Turner was not ready to return shortly.

8. muddle, yes. Blame the iPhone!

   it’s not so obvious to call up CK. He has ignited more recently, is young, has little AAA experience, is playing in a hitters league. So for all of these reasons, he really hasn’t forced the issue. This is not a Vlad Jr. situation.

   But the Nats need something offensive, and both Turner and Rendon are out. So it’s a situation that dictates the chance to be taken. Kieboom has only helped the odds for himself by playing steady defense and adapting to position switching, as well as AAA. The Nats need a spark.

   Soto’s promotion last year was circumstantial. He happened to run with it. I think the circumstances make this the right call for CK right now, while the pitching and bullpen train AA-AAA-DC sorts itself out.

   1. Train train. By the group. Blackfoot ( Rickey Medlocke )
      Not much about the best possible athlete @ number 17 for Nats in June draft …

9. It bears noting that Kendrick has been excellent and that his time is well earned, and part of the CK deliberation. But Rendon being down changes things.

10. It also bears noting that I am still glad the Nats did not sign Harper.

    I did say, repeatedly and to general derision on Todd’s great website, that they should have traded him two seasons ago.

    Those ideas will no doubt come to mind with the Nats bloated payroll and the promise of both CK and Luis G.

    This is for another discussion, but Nats minor league talent acquisition has improved in the regular draft and international signings. The Harrisburg success demonstrates SOME upward mobility, especially among the pitchers.

    Perhaps the position players reflect that upward mobility as well (Barrera speaks to that). If that’s the case, the Nats have to have a more grounded confidence in their up and comers and trade high value contracts well beyond their sell date and never make the Harper mistake again. Letting Harper go for nothing when they knew they had three years of Eaton, Taylor off 2017 and Robles in the pipeline, with replacements like AJ Pollack available at a fraction, was a big mistake by the Nats ownership-Rizzo. What will they learn from it? Maybe that’s why Rendon has not yet signed. Maybe the Nats can see the conga line coming and the inventory of lower cost quality as a plan B – that once benefitted them with Daniel Murphy when he signed with DC.

    1. Does Harper argue to try and emit this passion which came and went in DC along with the fact disagreements help to allow his hair to toss around .
       The good book says . Job. All is vanity ..

11. My point is that no one saw Soto coming. But the Nats see other free agent alternatives two years ahead (they did Scherzer) and did not have the balls to trade Harper for apparent lesser value that could have been 5 prospects to lottery tickets to a team eager enough to be relevant.

    I have typically praised Nats ownership and Rizzo. But I think this disconnect from minor league inventory assessment was a fatal mistake with Harper’s decision and I hope it does not happen with Rendon.

    If they can sign him to a Gdschmidt contract, great. If they can’t, they have a replacement in one of the best prospects in baseball right now. They have a couple of months to resolve it, but please no more Ryan Zimmerman contracts and no 13/330 nonsense. Develop players and let the farm system give them Robles/Soto stars and sign extensions team friendly when a player is worth betting on, like Trea Turner.

12. All good things must come to an end and they did on the island yesterday afternoon. I can’t recall the last time this year the Sens pitching did so poorly. Ward crushed all 3 doubles and tied the franchise mark for doubles in a game.

13. Did the nats make a mistake at the beginning of the season by putting Noll on the 40 man rather than having Adrian Sanchez start the season in DC? If they want to call up Keiboom they will have to clear a 40 man spot.

    1. No. They have dead wood on the 40-man (Adams) and could move Glover to the 60-day IL.

14. Clearing someone from the lower end of the 40-man is never a problem. That said, yes, Noll was probably an over-aggressive addition, considering his struggles at AA last year. (Of course Kieboom didn’t exactly tear up AA either.)

    A struggling C. Kieboom at the MLB level would still be better than Difo. And there’s no guarantee he would struggle. He played a lot in the spring, saw a lot of MLB starters, and more than held his own (just ask Verlander).

    1. Anyone know why they skipped Voth’s spot in the Fresno rotation? I was wondering if he’s on a transcontinental flight today to replace Rosenthal in the pen.

       1. Hmm, that’s a good question. Makes some sense to have a long man in case Max can’t go deep into his start, and Voth has looked good lately. I think you may be right.

       2. He’s listed as tomorrow’s starter in the Grizzlies game notes.

15. Kieboom being called up is likely reliant on whether Rendon goes to the IL. But even then he’ll likely only be up until Rendon and Turner return. I don’t see them paying Dozier $9 million to sit on the bench without getting at least another couple of months out of him.

    1. Trades are always possible … and the Nats have needs: bullpen.

16. Agree with Karl on Dozier. Especially since his power is coming back.

    I would not yet give up Adams spot, but no one will claim Adrián Sanchez if DFA.

17. Rangers call up former Nats 5th round pick (2015) Taylor Hearn. Nats traded Hearn and Felipe (Rivero) Vazquiez to the Pirates for Mark Melancon. The Pirates later flipped Hearn to the Rangers. Hearn throws hard (10.5 K/IP ratio) as he sits in the mid 90s.

    Nats have surrendered plenty of bullpen pieces over the years.

    1. Hearn definitely was one of their better LHP prospects.

       1. Brass like Borne as much as Hearn when both tossed in the pipeline

18. Well here we go boys. Seems Rizzo was swayed by our arguments!

    Now that Kieboom’s made the jump, maybe we should lend our support behind one of our relievers (Bourque as he’s on the 40 man?) to replace Rosenthal or Sipp?

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