Vote for Your Favorite Arms
While the argument about how much the bar for the Hall of Fame has been lowered again has resurfaced, it’s time for us to move on to our next step toward riding out another winter.
Mason Denaburg will probably assume the mantle of the clear-cut #1—despite not having thrown a pitch against a professional batter—as the team’s youngest and highest recent draft pick (excluding Seth Romero, natch), following in the footsteps of Lucas Giolito (2012-15) and Erick Fedde (2016-17). After that… hoo boy, where’d I put that dart board?
Like the bats, you can send your Top 10 list to enfieldmass-top10arms[at]yahoo[dot]com (link will open your preferred email client) or post them in the comments.
Once we have enough votes, I’ll weight ’em in reverse order (#1 = 10 points, #2 = 9 points … #9 = 2 points, #10 = 1 point) and post the results along with any comments or snark. This year, we do have some “last five on the 40” guys with rookie eligibility, including Austen Williams, Austin Voth, Kyle McGowin, and Jimmy Cordero, all of whom will be 26 or older on opening day.
I suspect the Rule 5 Draft will come and go before the next post, which will risk one (1) pitcher with AA experience for the first time (Ryan Brinley, who did not pitch in 2018) and a trio of AA players (Alec Keller, Austin Davidson, Drew Ward) for a second time, who lack the defense, versatility, and/or speed to merit a bench spot on a 25-man roster.
This was way harder than expected, even compared to the hitters list, mostly because there isn’t any consensus on any of our pitchers. Normally, I’d rank players heavily on their potential upside, but this year, I’ve placed a lot more emphasis on likelihood of contributing, because besides Denaburg and Romero, I don’t see much of any high potential arms in our system.
1. Wil Crowe
2. James Bourque
3. Mason Denaburg
4. Seth Romero
5. Alfonso Hernandez
6. Sterling Sharp
7. Austen Williams
8. Ben Braymer
9. Tim Cate
10. Jackson Tetreault
Too old: Kyle McGowin, like Yadiel Hernandez/Austin Davidson, is too old. A year older than Davidson, in fact, but deserves a mention due to the fact that he’s the closest thing to big league depth that we have in the system.
Too young: Jose Ferrer, Pedro Gonzalez. Both showed signs of being very, very good, but in the DSL. If those skills translate state-side, then they’ll jump up the list very quickly like Hernandez.
Too small sample size: Jake Irvin, Reid Schaller, Aaron Fletcher, Carson Teel, Andrew Karp, Evan Lee, Chandler Day, Tanner Driskill (maybe even in that same order). We drafted a boat load of college arms in 2018, but these guys only got around 30 innings to make a case for themselves. They too could rise quickly or disappear from the prospect radar permanently depending on their 2019 seasons.
All in all, it’s a very weak top 10, lacking anything close to high upside at the top like our bats. It’s also been ages since we successfully developed an arm through our farm system. The last guy, I think was Tanner Roark in 2013. Maybe I’m overlooking someone, but I wouldn’t count guys Solis or Glover, who haven’t been consistent or consistently healthy.
And Roark was acquired a few months before he turned 24, so… I believe if we discount him because Washington didn’t draft him (i.e. most of his development was in the Texas system), then you’re looking at Brad Peacock. If you only want to count guys who are still with the organization, Strasburg (who’s like a Jaguar – awesome performance when he’s not in the shop).
I don’t have a list but I have a comment/ question. If Harper leaves then we could ask if brass bungled the decision to pour signing money into Fedde and allow Suarez to return to UM Canes then SF Giants resulting in the need to over pay Corbin??? Is this historically all going to be related ?? National Enquirer shopping lane minds want to know. Lol
Yeah, this got me thinking too. There’s a boatload of pitchers we developed, then traded. In addition to Peacock, you also have Milone, Reynaldo Lopez, Nick Pivetta, Robbie Ray, Felipe Vazquez, Blake Treinen, and the jury is still out on AJ Cole, Jefry Rodriguez, Giolito, Dane Dunning, Tyler Watson, Taylor Hearn, and probably another dozen I’m forgetting.
But I’m trying to come up with players we developed and then contributed to the Nationals, and there’s hardly anyone. It’s actually quite shocking how few. I’ve found myself tempted to go back to Expos drafts to find more examples. There are examples like Roark, players we acquired who were nearly ready: Joe Ross and Tyler Clippard. Those that were drafted by the Nats and then contributed positively to the Nats are few and far between: Strasburg, Storen (for a few years), Jordan Zimmermann, and then (I can’t believe I’m going back 13 years to our inaugural draft) John Lannan and Craig Stammen! Glover and Grace might eventually meet this criteria too, but it’s actually crazy that the club has produced 5-8 good pitchers at the big league level in 13 years.
Yes, Stras is the last internally developed starter, unless you count half a season of Detwiler.
Kudos for Rizzo stockpiling bullpen arms. Rainey could be that kid to step in if Koda isn’t 100pct
We will ever see the Cubs complete that Daniel Murphy deal ??
Tanner for a Tanner. Is that a first in trading history ??
1. Denaburg
2. Crowe
3. Cate
4. Tetrault
5. Raquet
6. K. Johnston
7. A. Hernandez
8. S. Romero
9. Schaller
10. Irvin
Honorable Mention: McGowin, Braymer, A. Williams, Bourque, B. Hill
No change to my list with the Rainey trade. Would slot him in the honorable mentions after Braymer.
Romero and Klobosits out with TJ surgery.
Mason Denaburg
Tim Cate
Nick Raquet
James Bourque
Philips Valdez
Jake Irwin
Wil Crowe
Sterling Sharp
Ben Braymer
Alfonso Hernandez
I think Valdez is a minor league free agent.
Indeed. He elected for free agency in November: http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=570488#/career/R/pitching/2018/ALL
I’ll change it and throw in Rainey instead.
Mason Denaburg
Tim Cate
Nick Raquet
James Bourque
Tim Rainey
Jake Irwin
Wil Crowe
Sterling Sharp
Ben Braymer
Alfonso Hernandez
I didn’t know about the Knob injury.
Relievers are like ex – girl friends with some guys.
Luke. The Nats sure love to keep minor league transactions tight to the vest like state secrets or scoop up the farm fodder for Fresno right in February
Wow, talk about an exercise that could drive one insane . . . I have about 30 names scribbled on a pad, with at least 20 or so semi-worthy of being included on the list. Of the 10 I have chosen, five could be considered old for the primary level at which each pitched in 2018, while four of the others have yet to pitch above a half-season level, with Denaburg yet to pitch at all (rumored to have pitched in Instrux?). The only one I have who gets dinged on neither account is Steven Fuentes, who often gets overlooked but who posted a 2.78 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 9.3 K/9 across two full-season levels at age 21. So . . .
1. McGowin
2. A. Williams
3. Crowe
4. Denaburg
5. A. Hernandez
6. Bourque
7. Fuentes
8. Braymer
9. Irvin
10. Fletcher
While the crop may be thin on top-tier talent, I feel like it’s deep enough that at least some quality guys will emerge. Next season will be a big sorting-out year for all the 2017 and 2018 pitching draftees. Quite a number of the 2017 big arms under-performed and had better bounce back or risk being passed by some of the 2018 guys. Of the 2018 draftees, I think Irvin and Schaller may have higher-level capability (in addition Denaburg).
One suspects Steven Fuentes could be scooped up in minor league portion on the 13 th
Jhonathan German should climb into the top 15 by summer
1. Denaburg
2. Sharp
3. McGowin
4. Williams
5. Bourque
6. Tetreault
7. Crowe
8. Voth
9. Braymer
10. Cate
Honorable mentions: Teel, Raquet, Schaller, Irvin, Alfonso Hernandez
If you exclude Denaburg because he didn’t pitch professionally in 2018, everyone moves up one, with Teel slotting in at #10 and Fuentes coming onto the honorable mention list.
I don’t think you can exclude him but, as others have already done, you can knock him down a peg until he throws in a game where stats are kept and made public.
I feel a little validated that my “dart board” remark was not pure snark. As I’m inferring from Will’s long and thoughtful comment, the system is bereft of true starters with a track record.
Snark or mole suggestion ?
For sure. It would be very reassuring if a few of the gazillion starting pitcher prospects we drafted this year can put up strong numbers across 2019.
I’m still mad I missed a chance to get my position player top 10 in before the deadline…well it would have looked something like this…
1. Victor Robles
2. Carter Kieboom
3. Luis Garcia
4. Yasel Antuna
5. Raudy Read
6. Gage Canning
7. Telmito Agustin
8. Israel Pineda
9. Drew Ward
10. Jose Sanchez
Glad I procrastinated as things have changed a bit with the “Tanner Swap”:
1. Mason Denaburg
2. Wil Crowe
3. Tanner Rainey
4. Tim Cate
5. James Borque
6. Nick Raquet
7. Reid Schaller
8. Kyle Johnston
9. Jake Irvin
10. Alfonso Hernandez
Now back to regularly scheduled programming…top pitchers
1. Mason Denaburg
2. Wil Crowe
3. Seth Romero
4. Tim Cate
5. Sterling Sharp
6. Jackson Tetreault
7. Jake Irvin
8. James Bourque
9. Nick Raquet
10. Reid Schaller
Honorable mention in order they missed top 10..
Kyle McGowin-He deserves to be higher but his age keeps him off the top 10.
Austen Williams-Had a great year in the minors. Didn’t give up a homer and then comes to the major leagues and gets bombed multiple times. I’m betting he can be that guy in AA and AAA.
Ben Braymer- I’m high on Braymer even after a sub-par fall league. A lefty who can start or relieve and eat innings with solid stuff.
Tanner Rainey- Just acquired today, heard he throws 100 but man he has no control.
Gabe Klobosits
Kyle Johnston
Brigham Hill
Jeremy McKinney
Steven Fuentes
Hayden Howard
Sheesh this was tough. Pitchers is much harder to do then position players. There is so many that could become something in this organization (though at this point there is no one pitcher who looks like a sure thing or frontline guy). I think it will be very interesting to see how aggressively they push Denaburg in his first year. My guess is he gets the Giolito treatment in the GCL with a chance to end up in Auburn. I think they are hoping Crowe can become a variation of Tanner Roark with less athleticism and maybe better stuff.
Romero might have the most upside and electric arm on this list but he won’t pitch next year and his career thus far as been a dud. I still have high hopes.
I’m wait and see on Cate. He was so-so in a small sample. Sharp is solid but I’m not sold on his stuff as a big leaguer and no swing and miss.
I hear good things on Irvin. He could be Wil Crowe part 2, except he is 6-6.
If Bourque figures out control he is electric as a late inning reliever. If he doesn’t might still have some value as AAAA type guy.
Raquet is a reliever long time and his lack of swing and miss stuff as a pro worries me about his ceiling and role if any.
Schaller is starting for now but I think he ends up a reliever with big stuff.
*I’m higher on Tetreault then most. I think he might end up a mid rotation starter. His stats are not the full story. He would have a bad start and then in his next be dominate and strike out 8 or 9. I really think late in the year he turned a corner that his stats won’t be fully indicative of. He has swing and miss stuff and decent control with an athletic and still growing frame. His ceiling might be as high as any prospect in the system outside of Denaburg and Romero.
I did a whole long essay on Nationals pitching when I did my top 10. Doesn’t look like it posted smh. No way I’m writing that again. But hopefully in due time it posts lol
Oh well wrote it again. Left out alot of stuff I wrote in my first one smh. But this is the significantly less detailed version.
1. Mason Denaburg
2. Wil Crowe
3. Seth Romero
4. Tim Cate
5. Sterling Sharp
6. Jackson Tetreault
7.Jake Irvin
8. James Bourque
9. Tanner Rainey
10. Reid Schaller
Honorable mention in order of missing cut: Kyle McGowin, Gabe Klobosits, Nick Raquet, Austen Williams, Ben Braymer, Kyle Johnston, Brigham Hill, Steven Fuentes, Jeremy McKinney, Hayden Howard
I’m higher on Tetreault then most. I think his ceiling is as high as any pitcher in the system outside of Denaburg and Romero. He could be a mid rotation starter if everything broke right. His numbers are not a true indication of his talent to me. He would have a bad start and then a terrific one where he struck out 8 or 9. He got better as the season wore on. He also has swing and miss stuff with decent control. So I think he is an arm to watch. There is some risk because he doesn’t have the floor of an Irvin or Crowe.
I also like Braymer a decent amount even after a subpar fall league because he is a lefty that can start or relieve and eat innings. He also has a quality arsenal.
I think on my list I want to swap Rainey and Schaller. Rainey at 10 and Schaller at 9
Cannot go with any of the 2018 guys at this point. New folks on DL are hard to include in a top-10.
So…
1. McGowin
2. Bourque
3. Williams
4. Crowe
5. M. Pena
6. Sharp
7. Guilbeau
8. Braymer
9. A Hernandez
10. Tetrault
6.
OK, redoing mine, and I’ve decided to drop Denaburg before he actually pitches professionally:
1. McGowin
2. Williams
3. Rainey
4. Bourque
5. Sharp
6. Crowe
7. Tetreault
8. Voth
9. Braymer
10. Fletcher
Adjusting Sharp and Tetreault a bit lower and swapping Fletcher in for Cate (that K/BB at Auburn is really something). Honorable mentions would include Cate, Teel, Alfonso Hernandez, Raquet, and Schaller.
I was also planning to rank Cate but just couldn’t after actually looking at his numbers.
Rainey has already been added to the Nats’s Top 30 prospects list–checking in at #22, just behind McGowin, but ahead of “Orange,” Voth and Ward. Just the fact that those last 3 are on the list (and McGowin for that matter) shows how thin their prospect pool has become.
Might as well blow another 50 million or whatever on Kikuchi. It would be nice to have a “homegrown” Asian player on the team for a change.
I don’t know about the rest of you, but I want nothing to do with another Henry Rodriguez, sorry, I mean Tanner Rainey. Great, he has a wicked fastball and can throw 99, but will walk a batter per inning. Since when have the Nats ever been able to successfully convert a erratic power arm into a dependable reliever?
We’ve had HRod, Felipe Vazquez, Blake Treinen, Jimmy Cordero, Abel de los Santos, Austin Adams, Trevor Gott, hell even Drew Storen fits this mold. How did any of them work out for the Nationals? Seems this power pitcher with control issues type just doesn’t work for whatever reason (especially seeing the evidence of guys like Treinen and Vazquez, and even Cole, finding immediate success elsewhere). But, hey, maybe the 15th time is the charm.
But it is a fact that the best relievers in the majors were generally starters in the minors. Because there stuff and repertoire were so good the team wanted to try them as starters as long as possible. They knew the bullpen was always a fallback because these guys stuff are generally that good. Archie Bradley and Josh Hader ring any bells. Those guys were both top 100 prospects because of their ability presumed as starters. They had some failure put them in bullpen and bang!!! Both Treinin and Rivero came up through the minors as starters. They were flipped to relievers when they failed or out of team necessity and you knew there stuff would play up. Guys who are relievers in the minors for a significant time are generally more flawed and should be more cautious about longterm value. So I wouldn’t put Rivero or Treinen in the hard throwing category like Rainey. It is well documented that Rivero in the minors is nothing like the hard throwing guy he is now. I heard used to sit 90-94.
I would however put Rainey in that hard throwing category along with Henry Rodriguez, Enny Romero, Jimmy Cordero as hard throwing guys who probably have no value other then the fact they touch 100. Rivero and Treinen while with the Nats even if they didn’t turn into the guys they are today. Both have great control compared to Rainey who if you look at the numbers is a harder throwing version of Austin L. Adams. Plenty of k’s but has no clue where it is going.
1. Denaburg
2. Romero
3. Sharp
4. Crowe
5. McGowin
6. Borque
7. Klobosits
8. Cate
9. Rainey
10. Voth