NationalsProspects.com

The NationalProspects.com Top 10 Pitchers

If you’re wondering why Mike Rizzo is on the hunt for more starting pitching, this list ought to be a clue. Simply put: Just one of these 10 is age-appropriate-to-the-level and has had a modicum of success as a starter. And since Sterling Sharp doesn’t throw 95 and isn’t lefthanded…

Please hold while I pass along the results from the 24 pitchers named 11 ballots (one more of both from last year):

  1. Mason Denaburg
  2. Wil Crowe
  3. James Bourque
  4. Tim Cate
  5. Sterling Sharp
  6. Seth Romero
  7. Kyle McGowin
  8. Austen Williams
  9. Tanner Rainey
  10. Jackson Tetreault

Others receiving votes: Nick Raquet, Ben Braymer, Alfonso Hernandez, Jake Irvin, Reid Schaller, Kyle Johnston, Malvin Pena,
Gabe Klobosits, Austin Voth, Taylor Guilbeau, Steven Fuentes, Aaron Fletcher, Jordan Mills, Andrew Istler

… it’s pretty clear that the Nats don’t have much to go to if (when) any of the on-paper starting five (Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin, Ross, Fedde) go down with an injury. In fact, it would appear that many of you are valuing the short term over the long term with the likes of Kyle McGowin (27), Austen Williams (26 next week), and the newly acquired Tanner Rainey (26 the week after next).

And that’s fine, since it’s pretty clear that the post-Harper Nationals will be very reliant on pitching and defense, though there’s the Duquette-esque* argument that a healthy Adam Eaton (first time for everything), a full season of Juan Soto, and the addition of Victor Robles will keep the runs coming.
* This was when Mo Vaughn left in 1998. For the most part, Duquette was right–the Red Sox scored only 40 fewer runs in 1999 with Brian Daubach and Jose Offerman added to the lineup–but it also kinda, sorta helped to have Pedro Martinez throw 213 innings of 243 ERA+ ball

Other takeaways…

• There are just three holdovers from last year, thanks in part to the graduations of Erick Fedde and Wander Suero (believe it or not, according to Baseball-Reference, Austin L. Adams is *still* rookie eligible) and the trade of Jefry Rodriguez.

• Mason Denaburg was not named on two ballots but was #1 on eight of the nine ballots he was named on – maybe I was too heavy-handed in my remarks about not throwing professionally yet?

• Not only was Wil Crowe the only pitcher named on all 11 ballots, but he actually moved up a spot despite getting hammered like the errand boy at the office Christmas party after his promotion to Harrisburg.

• Unlike last year, the gap between #10 and #11 was five points so it would have taken either one or two more votes and a few spots higher; perhaps Nick Raquet was “punished” for his poor showing at High-A (5-3, 4.91) vs. Low-A (4-6, 2.79)

• The nickel-head, million-dollar-armed Seth Romero fell from #2 to #6 but I think that says more about the system than him – it’s always been painfully thin of LHSPs, never mind one that can break 90 mph without taking a ride from Jayson Werth. People much smarter than I am about these things swear that if he can both grow up and slim down, he’ll live up to his Top-10 status.

As always, feel free to discuss in the comments.

19 Commments

  1. I am curious about what your opinion is of Mike Rizzo’s drafting skills? Outside of Carter Kieboom don’t see much in the way of talent. I do give him credit on the international side for Soto and Robles.

    1. I think Rizzo is very skilled at identifying talent that can be traded but when it comes to the ones he drafts and keeps, his reputation far exceeds the results. On the current 40-man there are three players who weren’t picked in the first three rounds and two of them are (as Sao sagely points out) fungible relievers (the other is Michael Taylor). Otherwise, I’ll defer to the draftniks visiting here — I’m too busy in June paying attention to the guys we already have than fretting about the ones we might get.

  2. I always liked 10 cent control tower over nickel head.
    I’m still bullish on Sharp and hopefully Crowe finds his way.

  3. That list reminds me of the Nats’ very first season, when the system was headed up by the likes of Jason Bergman, Shawn Hill, Mike Hinckley, Saul Rivera and Colin Balestar and they were about to draft Lannan, Stammen and Estrada. Come to think of it, with all of those except Hinckley getting more than.a couple of cups of coffee, that wasn’t all that bad a list.

  4. I think we’ll see Kyle McGowin and Austen Williams a lot this coming season.

    Austin L. Adams: I didn’t think he still had rookie / prospect status? He still has the best overall stuff in the system right now with a starter’s repertoire. I assumed the Nats had given up on him since he wasn’t added to the active roster at the end of the season? He still has potential and a potential closer’s ceiling. He has done everything he possibly could in the minors. It’s time for him to prove himself in the majors and overcome the stage fright issue.

    Maybe lefty Nick Raquet will be a fast riser?

    1. Heavens to Mergatroid ! God forbid we see much of Kyle and Adams.
      Let’s save ranking until we see the NCAA guys mature ( Karp, Irwin plus and Latin guys who come out of the rough woodwork ( hypothetical Felix Tavares or some names who make some buzz never done before )

      1. Jeff: I’m right there with you on Adams and McGowin. You can also throw Voth and Williams onto that list of guys I hope we don’t see until after 8/31, if at all. In Adams’s case, the Nats didn’t even bother calling him up last September to give him another look as the team sank beneath the waves. I think his chances of being DFA’d before Opening Day are greater than 50/50.

        1. I didn’t say Austin L. would be used a lot. He’s a conundrum. If he could overcome the butterflies and, God only knows, perhaps even panic attacks … he would be an excellent addition to the Nats bullpen.

          Kyle McGowin looks potentially like a solid middle of the rotation starter. Austen Williams seems to have “gotten it” as a middle innings bullpen piece.

  5. Washington’s stock of young relief candidates is actually pretty decent. Much thinner on legit candidates to start, and excruciatingly thin on particularly young prodigies with golden arms — the kind of guys we curse Atlanta and Los Angeles for seemingly plucking out of nowhere.

    Age matters less, obviously, for MR/LR types, since all but the most elite relievers tend to be volatile anyway and you don’t count on them having long, sustained stretches of steady performance over the course of many years. Put another way, they’re more or less a fungible resource, which is why it’s so nice when the farm system produces them instead of requiring Mike Rizzo pay beaucoup bucks to a free agent.

  6. Despite his age, I have confidence in Kyle McGowin. In his last 11 AAA starts, McGowin gave up more than 2 runs once (and in that start he gave up 3) , and he walked 2 or less in 10 of those 11 starts (control translates across levels). In his one MLB start, McGowin pitched 4 shout out innings. He has swing and miss stuff.

    Think that McGowin is a late bloomer that found command and control in his mid-20s. Not saying he will be more than a middle of the rotation starter, but I do think that he is a viable MLB option as a starting pitcher going forward.

  7. Looks like some will have to update their top 10 bats as Andruw Monasterio is the PBTNL in the Gomes trade.

    1. That’s surprising. We now gave Daniel Murphy away for nothing, since Rizzo appears to have forgotten that he is still owed a PTBNL from the Cubs (in addition to Monasterio).

      I’m genuinely puzzled by this. Was it a PTBNL or cash considerations? And did the Lerners take the cash as part of their unsuccessful attempt to get under the luxury tax threshold or something? Otherwise, Rizzo needs to get on the phone and remind Epstein of his debt.

      1. Not really accurate to say the Nats gave away Murphy for nothing as Monasterio helped get them Yan Gomes. Also, by the time the Nats traded Murphy, they were looking to dump salary. The Murphy, Adams, and Gio trades reduced payroll and the payroll tax.

  8. Luke, you may have been the only one to see him play at Potomac, he was barely here. What did we lose in terms of potential?
    I honestly don’t know the answer.

    1. Monasterio was a low-to-mid-level prospect, which surprised me when he got named to some lists because his overall 2018 line was rather pedestrian: .263/.359/.336, or just a shade under the Lg. Avg. (.695 OPS vs. .699)

  9. spring expectations like Christmas expectations under the green tree?
    Keep them tempered and moderate? Spring always brings injuries and stalled developments.
    which date will this be in 2019 for both affiliates roster combinations?
    Pottomac: Shaddy, Lora, Meregildo, Franco, Scudder, Marinconz, Garcia,
    Upshaw, Freeman ( this guy should be tried in OF once the brigade motors up from Hags), Canning ( no brainer right out of the shoot in April), Lara and Williams ( very curious two guys assignment right out of WPB in April- AA possibly for better depth?), Pablo Cruise Oconner,Caufeld, ……J. Sanchez…..Franco and Meregildo
    Hagerstown: Altuna, Pogue, Vickers, Chisholm, J. Morales, Daily, Connell, Wilson, Senior, Mendez, Grissoms favorite Italian name from GCL2018..L.E>…..Pena, Pascal, and Rizzos favorite group..the backstoppers…Perkins ( 1b and LF?) Pineda, Carillo, Diaz ( R. Sosa up after the Auburn 2018 bunch motors over to HighA???)
    Hagerstown: Altuna

    1. Harrisburg? Lara, Masters, Meijia, CarterK, Corredor, Williams ?
      Sundberg, Wiseman, Agusteeeen, Banks, Conversely Taylor, ( very symbolic in the last Jurrassic Park film where the little girl wears label less Chuck Taylors to symbolize the true innocence of youth and tom boy hood),
      back to baseball..Read, Barrera ( could he play some 3b in a pinch or 1b as he did @ UT?),

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