Thursday’s News & Notes
Harrisburg and Potomac kept their winning streaks going while Syracuse reverted to the mean on a two-win, two-loss, one rained-on Wednesday night.
| Team | Yesterday | Today | Pitching Matchup |
| Syracuse | Lost, 2-1 | @ Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, 7:05 p.m. | Fedde (3-3, 4.70) vs. Swanon (2-2, 4.09) |
| Harrisburg | Won, 5-4 | vs. Erie, 6:30 p.m. | Crowe (0-4, 5.32) vs. Faedo (2-6, 4.91) |
| Potomac | Won, 6-0 | vs. Frederick, 7:05 p.m. | Crownover (5-8, 4.46) vs. Baumann (7-5, 4.20) |
| Hagerstown | Lost, 4-1 | @ West Virginia, 7:05 p.m. | A. Lee (4-4, 4.55) vs. Reyes (3-3, 3.16) |
| Auburn | Losing, 6-1 | vs. Williamsport, TBD | TBD vs. TBD |
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre 2 Syracuse 1
• McGowin 7IP, 6H, R, ER, 0BB, 6K
• Torres (L, 4-4) 4BF, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 3BB, 0K
• Marmolejos 2-4, RBI
• Robles 1-4, R, 2B
The Chiefs reverted to form with a walk-off loss in the 9th. Carlos Torres issued leadoff walk followed by a single to put runners on first and third with nobody out. An intentional walk was issued to set up a force at any base. An unintentional walk followed to give the RailRiders a 2-1 win. Kyle McGowin once again pitched well—one run on six hits over seven innings with six whiffs and no walks—and once again was rewarded with a no-decision. Syracuse collected four hits and one (1) walk on offense with Jose “Orange” Marmolejos doubling in Victor Robles in the 7th to break up the shutout.
Harrisburg 5 Erie 4
• Darnell 5IP, 8H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 4K
• Harper (W, 2-1) 1⅓ IP, 1H, 0R, 0BB, 2K, 2-1 IR-S
• Ward 2-3, R, BB, HR, RBI
• Abreu 2-4, 2R, 2B, RBI
• Keller 2-5, R
Carter Kieboom’s two-run double capped a three-run, walkoff 9th as Harrisburg extended its winning streak to four with a 5-4 win over Erie. Bryan Harper, who let in one of two inherited runners in the 8th but pitched a scoreless 9th, picked up the win in relief. Logan Darnell got the start and put in five innings of three-run ball on eight hits and two walks while striking out four. Drew Ward, Osvaldo Abreu, and Alec Keller each had two hits, with Ward smacking his 12th home run.
Potomac 6 Frederick 0
• Baez (W, 9-9) 7IP, 5H, 0R, 0BB, 5K
• Guilbeau 2IP, 0H, 0R, 0BB, 1K
• Corredor 2-4, 2R
• Monasterio 2-4, 3B, RBI
• Mejia 2-5, R, HR, 2RBI
Joan Baez pitched seven strong innings without issuing a walk or a run as he combined with Taylor Guilbeau on a five-hit, 6-0 shutout of the Keys – the sixth win in the last seven games for the P-Nats. Baez struck out five and got the benefit of four double plays, starting with a strike-’em-out-throw-’em-out number to end the 1st and three 4-6-3 DPs to end the 3rd, 6th, and 7th innings. Bryan Mejia got the first and last RBIs of the night with leadoff HR in the 1st and an RBI single in the 8th as he, Andruw Monsaterio, and Aldrem Corredor each had two hits to lead the Potomac offense.
West Virginia 4 Hagerstown 1
• Cate (L, 0-3) 6IP, 4H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 5K, WP
• Upshaw 1-3, R, HR, BB, RBI, SB(24)
• Dunlap 1-3, 2B, BB, RBI
Tim Cate turned in his first professional quality start and was rewarded with his third Low-A loss as the Suns were eclipsed by the Power, 4-1. Cate gave up two runs on four hits and no walks while striking out five over six innings. Hagerstown drew five walks off Bond villain West Virginia starter Sergio Cubilete but couldn’t get a clutch hit all night as they went 0-for-8 with RISP and had just five hits total. Armond Upshaw prevented the shutout with a two-out solo HR in the 7th.
Williamsport 6 Auburn 1 – SUSP., 4th
• Irvin 2IP, 2H, 0R, 0BB, 2K
• C. Morse 1⅔ IP, 4H, 6R, 6ER, 3BB, 0K
• Chu ⅓ IP, 1H, 0R, 0BB, 0K, 2-2 IR-S
• O’Connor 1-2, R, HR, RBI
The Crosscutters took a 6-1 lead with a five-run top of the 4th before rain halted play. Presumably, they will finish this one then play a seven-inning game afterwards tonight.
Time to start thinking about org players of the year. For hitters, the “winner” will come with an asterisk, thanks to Soto, who posted the best “season” in two months. My guess would be C. Kieboom or Garcia. I’m not even sure who else would be in the running.
Crowe may have been the frontrunner for pitcher at 10-0, but his struggles after promotion haven’t helped his cause. McGowin and Austen Williams have excellent cases.
McGowin may get the pitcher award because I’d make Williams the favorite for the Boone for his perseverance. I’m sure I’m not the only one who thought his career was dead. I’d also like to see Austin Davidson get some Boone consideration. Others deserving include the long list of pitchers who have spent months/years battling back: Andrew Lee, Ryan Williamson, Aaron Barrett, and Bryan Harper.
Haha, I was writing my own post about McGowin’s case for POTY when you posted yours.
McGowin gets my vote, but a bunch of the lights out relievers (Williams, Braymer, Bourque, McKinney, Howard, probably others) that could get a nod too.
Do we break it down by pitcher/hitter of the year? If so, hitter would go to Rhett Wiseman (by far the most HR and highest OPS across all full season affiliates), Kieboom or Austin Davidson (who’s been sneakily good with a .850 OPS across 2 levels). Dark horse: Luis Garcia.
Yadiel Hernandez should be in the discussion but won’t be.
Can’t see the organization giving Wiseman an award when they haven’t even deemed him worthy of promotion. I’ve been lobbying for Hernandez to get an MLB look in Sept., but he likely won’t. Davidson may be one of the most overlooked players in the organization.
And the veritable reason why, unfortunately, Hernandez may not get a look. Davidson looks like he could be the reincarnation of Daniel Murphy …
I’ll also start a thread on AFL speculation. I think Kieboom is the only lock. Garcia is young and playing his first long season, but he hasn’t been slowing down, so he’d be in consideration. Johnson went last year but may get a return trip to get more reps after his injury this season. Robles may be with the big club, although he’d get more opportunity to play in AZ, again after missing so much playing time.
I’m never right about the pitchers they send to AZ, and they have internal innings counts and whatnot on which we have no visibility. The “best” have been McGowin and Williams, but they may be with the big club, or they may be reaching their limits. Reyes would be a likely candidate since he’s missed some time but is now coming back.
Another stellar outing from McGowin. Never mind when/if he’ll get called up. Let’s talk about him getting named franchise Player of the Year.
Continuing Kirkie’s conversation about AFL candidates from yesterday, there’s a bunch of options due to very good Potomac and Harrisburg teams (a big change from previous seasons). My best guess would be given the propensity to name A+/AA players and to maintain a balance between hitting and pitching:
1. Daniel Johnson (missed a bunch of time to injury and is just heating up now)
2. Andruw Monasterio (I think he’s R5 eligible, might need more viewing time from brass to see what they’ve got)
3. Telmito Agustin (see Johnson’s reasons above)
4. Hayden Howard (been dominant this year, and still thrown about 20 IP less than last year)
5. Jeremy McKinney
6. James Bourque (see Howard’s description)
7 Taxi Squad: Carter Kieboom (just to showcase Kieboom since the Nats seem intent on trading him rather than actually using him in the future)
Others for consideration: I really wanted to include Read since he missed half the season but he’s already got MLB experience.
Aldrem Corredor, Luis Garcia, then I’ll lump Rhett Wiseman and Ian Sagdal together (should be in consideration but the Nats seem to have forgotten about them altogether), then Davidson and Keller get lumped together for the same reasons but at Harrisburg, maybe add in Noll too.
I think Braymer has reached his innings limit, also it doesn’t look like Klobosits is coming back from injury any time soon.
Not sure why you think the Nats are intent on trading Kieboom. With an opening at 2B now and perhaps one at 3B after 2019, he would seem to be a big part of the future. He seems like THE prime AFL candidate to me.
I forgot about Agustin, who has also missed time this season and would be a good candidate. I’ve been on the Davidson bandwagon for a long time and would love for him to get an AFL look, but he’s not as high-profile as some of the others. Nevertheless, he’s done well enough that they may have to make a 40-man/Rule 5 decision on him, and the AFL would be a good place to find out how he’d do against top competition.
I would have expected Kieboom to have been trying out alternative positions by now, unless the plan is to use a reverse shift and field two shortstops and no 2B next season.
Kieboom’s ETA is clearly sometime in 2019. He’s still never played an inning of 2B in his life. While the shift to 2B is easier than the opposite way, it still requires some practice. It would seem, if the plan was to use him as a replacement for Murphy, that they’d have shown signs of doing that.
What’s the harm in starting Kieboom at 2B for the final two months? Worst case, we move him back there if Turner went down with a serious injury. But until that happens, there’s no way for him to play any meaningful innings at SS for the DC team.
I’ve been watching all season for Kieboom to get time at 2B. I don’t understand it, either, although keeping him at 2B theoretically keeps his “value” higher.
I guess another question — and it may be one for Luke, since he has gotten a long look at both — is who would be better suited at 3B, Kieboom or Garcia? They would be the presumed replacements for Murphy and Rendon, should they not re-sign Rendon (with the caveat that Garcia has just arrived at A+.) I remember seeing a report somewhere that speculated that Garcia might outgrow the infield entirely, although there have been some pretty big 3Bs, including Zim and Donaldson.
Err, keeping him at SS keeps Kieboom’s value higher.
Gatcia’s not that big — he looks to be what he’s listed at: 6’ 190. Both he and Kieboom are fairly mobile so it really could come down to who develops as the hitter. Kieboom seems to have more power but I’d expect as much from someone 2.5 years older.
Maybe it was Antuna they said might outgrow the INF. He and Garcia were discussed together a lot before the season, but Garcia has really separated himself.
Garcia has the same number of homers this season (7) that Gutierrez had for his CAREER before this year, so he’s getting there. He just turned 18 in May, so he’s younger than most of the high school players drafted this year.
KW, that’s exactly why I think Kieboom is being showcased for a trade instead of being in the Nats’ near-term plans.
As well as shortstop … there I’ve said it … but I see Kieboom at shortstop when all is said and done and Turner moved to 2nd / outfield.
That’s a possibility. But it wouldn’t be the smart move. Turner is currently a top 10 defensive SS. Kieboom is currently struggling defensively. He has 25 errors and a .950 F% this season.
Sure, it’s possible Kieboom blossoms into a defensive whizz, but that would be contrary to basic player development and nearly all scouting reports. Kieboom has been predicted to outgrow SS like many players before him. Seems like he’s already on that path, while Turner is playing well above average defense at SS already.
Keiboom, noll and Johnson are going to AFl. McGowin has had a great year and deserves a call up in sept.
Neither Garcia nor Antuna feature an OBP to write home about. Tougher for Antuna since he is a platoon bat. Both still only 18, lots of time to find their way.
Drew Ward has put together a surprisingly solid season, after playing miserably for so many months. I can’t remember a player as streaky as Ward, and this is coming from a fan of a team with Bryce Harper.
Ward is now hitting .247/.369/.437 in AA with 12 HR, the most he’s hit at any level in a season (and just 2 shy of his total across his “break out” 2016 season). But that doesn’t paint a full picture of his season, as it’s been nothing other than a rollercoaster.
First 19 games: .148/.316/.197
Next 35 games: .290/.393/.540
Next 30 games: .158/.259/.221 (split between AA and AAA)
Next 26 games: .324/.444/.581 (to present day)
It’s remarkable really. That’s 4 distinct phases of a season, where Ward seemingly switches overnight between red-hot and whatever the polar opposite of “red-hot” is.
Incredibly, he’s still only 23 years old (*grumble*thisisthebenefitofdraftinghighschoolers*grumble*), and is younger than the likes of “prospects” and/or recent draftees Rhett Wiseman, Wil Crowe and Cole Freeman, among others. But he won’t feature (or at least shouldn’t) in the AFL, since he was named twice before in 2015 and 2016. I think he’ll need adding to the 40 man roster this winter (and maybe a September promotion too).
Ward a September callup? Highly unlikely. Dude couldn’t even hit well enough to stick with a bad AAA team. I would also be very surprised to see him get a valuable 40-man roster spot this offseason when there are a lot of young pitchers who are going to need protecting. Even the likes of Joan Baez could be this year’s Jefy Rodriguez–the surprise 40-man roster addition who makes the majors next season. Ward’s OPS is hundred points lower than Marmolejos’s was when he was added to the 40-man, plus Ward’s strikeout rate is atrocious. Even if he were selected in the R5 draft, there no way he would stick with the acquiring club for a whole season.
I’m inclined to agree. Ward is not good enough to merit a spot when there are other deserving candidates. I’ve got McGowin, Williams, Valdez, Monasterio, Davidson, Agustin, and Bourque all ahead of him on the list for protection (from either R5 or MiLB free agency). Maybe Corredor and/or Wiseman, too, but I haven’t seen much evidence the Nats particularly prize either.
Wiseman still has one more year, as a 2015 draftee. I wouldn’t worry about Corredor, as he’s never batted above A ball, same with Agustin.
Does the fact that Bourque missed the entirety of 2015 affect his R5 eligibility?
Either way, we have a ton of players hitting FA this winter. There’s going to be a lot of moving pieces (much more so than in previous seasons), so let’s see where it stands come early December!
Good points. Definitely a defining offseason for the Nationals! Will they draft and sign 25 year old, top draft pick, Bryce Harper?
I’m not sure, just going off what RosterResource has (and they’re not always right or fully up to date).
Agustin is toolsy and is having a breakout season despite some injuries. I think the Nats protect him or lose him. But I was sure Spencer Kieboom was a goner last December when the Nats didn’t add him back onto the roster, and now he’s playing every fourth day for the big club, so what do I know.
Maybe more minor league free agents or December draft additions like Jacob Wilson
I don’t see Ward as a Sept. call-up, either. I would give better odds to Davidson and Noll, but they would be very long odds. (Davidson and Noll are significantly better hitters than Sanchez, but they can’t play SS, which is apparently the only reason Sanchez is still on the 40-man.)
Whether one believes Ward has an MLB future or not, the reason I wouldn’t invest a 40-man spot on him before Rule 5 is current baseball economics. Why would a team carry an unproven commodity like Ward for a whole season when it could get Adam Lind or Mark Reynolds for essentially the MLB minimum? The market for big corner bats is at rock bottom right now.
Marmolejos could never play 3B. Positional flexibility has considerable value if a team wants to stash him.
Also given the current state of the MLB, where if you’re not close to contending, you might as well blow up the team entirely (Orioles, Marlins, Royals, Tigers, White Sox, etc.), and the near-fetishization of prospects, I think the R5 draft could prove to be more useful than in past years.
Of course, it’s unlikely that Ward would stick with a team for a full season, but given the lack of corner IF options both in the majors after 2019 (Rendon and Zimmerman both leave) and in the upper minors (at Syracuse: Marmolejos, Jacob Wilson, Jason Martinson, Matt Reynolds, Chris Dominguez; at Harrisburg: Gamache and Noll- both older than Ward and with an OPS 100 points lower at the same level). We’d be wise to keep hold of the youngest one who also happens to have the best offensive numbers too of all those I named above.
Keiboom, Daniel Johnson, name noll are scheduled to go to AFL. McGowin has had a fantastic year.
I vote for Boone award To Barrett
Keiboom, noll and Johnson are going to AFl. McGowin has had a great year and deserves a call up in sept.
Comments here are definitely strange. (Sorry Luke, I know you don’t want to hear this!)
Logged on her on my ipad, from my home Wi-fi, first time of the day for either. Saw this post, saw two comments. Only problem is, I logged on at work a couple hours earlier, and saw all the comments about the AFL rosters.
So I don’t know if it’s a cache / cookies issue. Although I haven’t tried clearing either.
M workaround is to log on from about 4 devices in 4 locations every 24 hour’s and get everything that way… (as Luke probably knows if he checks up,addresses!)
On a more serious point, don’t ever stop. It’s a labour of love, but for those of us overseas, it’s just he clarity that sunshine brings through dusty windows. You don’t get enough thanks. But thanks.
AFL rosters are in…
Pitchers
Jordan Mills
Taylor Guilbeau
Ben Braymer
Luis Reyes
Batters
Tres Barrera
Carter Kieboom
Jake Noll
Daniel Johnson
Best guess: Barrera is on the taxi squad.
McGowin is a lock for organization pitcher of the year. Also, think the Nats add him to the 40 man roster this weekend.
Really touch call for Nats organization player of the year. Think they give it to Kieboom because he is a top prospect, but could see an argument for a bunch of guys. I would give it to Wiseman or Yadiel.
No chance Ward gets added to the 40 man either during or after the season. He is miles away from being ready for MLB, and his ceiling is just not that high as a player.
Interesting that the Nats elected to not to place Robles in the AZL, given the time he missed during the season. Guess there thinking is that he will play MLB until the end of September, and then play in the Dominican Winter League.
Finally, some people’s fixation on the Nats keeping Keiboom at SS is weird to me. Every team keeps its top prospects at SS for as long as possible, even if the plan is to ultimately play 2B or 3B. It’s not a hard transition to go from SS to 2B, but the inverse is much harder. Difo played almost no 2b in the minors before becoming the Nats regular 2B.
Also, the earliest Kieboom would actually play at the MLB level would be mid-season in 2019 (and that is optimistic). He will get work at 2B in Spring Training and maybe for part of 2019, but there is no reason to do it now. If/when the Nats don’t re-sign Harper, they will have a lot of cash to spend on a 2B and there are a ton available this off-season. Would guess that the Nats will sign a Brian Dozier, Jed Lowrie or DJ LeMahieu to play second and won’t call up Kieboom unti September 2019. Then, the decision will be whether to make a long term commitment to Rendon.
Nats hope Kendrick will be back to be the “bridge” to Kieboom. If he’s not going to be ready to start the season, then I agree that Lowrie or LeMahieu make sense as targets. I don’t think Kieboom will be MLB-ready for the start of the season regardless. I would be glad for him to blow up in AZ and prove me wrong!
Or maybe they stick with Difo … Reynolds seems like a good option and seems able to manage at 2nd base as well as third. Reynolds along with a hopefully recovered Kendrick (his contract still has another season) seem a better fit to me?
As for the money they need to go out and get some pitching … not sure there is anything on the free agent market beyond Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, and dual TJ Eovaldi, plus Trevor Cahill of the A’s. Its a crap shoot no matter how you look at it. But they need rotation starters and depth.
McGowin came in the Espinosa deal. Really nice starting numbers at 2 upper minors levels. Makes sense to try him out as a rotation piece going forward.
Difo is actually the perfect example for what we should do with Kieboom. Once it was clear Desmond was blocking Difo at SS, they began playing him regularly at 2B. He played 100 games at 2B in the minors (103 to be exact). That’s not at all playing “almost no 2B in the minors”.
Luke. One wonders if Braymer will be transitioned to bullpen role
Worked wonders for Austen Williams. Talk about a guy who’s made his way back onto the radar.
It’s a really curious selection. They’ve been jerking Braymer back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen all season. But I thought the reason they wouldn’t name him to AFL (even though he deserved to) was his innings limit. He’s thrown 112 IP this year, compared to 65 IP last year. I figured the reason they switched him back to the bullpen two weeks ago was an acknowledgement that he’d reached his innings ceiling, so to lighten his load, they’d use him again in relief, but alas that wasn’t correct. I guess they do view him as a reliever. It’s a bit strange because Braymer’s been excellent as a starter. His ERA, strikeout rate, walk rate, WHIP, etc has been better this season while starting than relieving.
Either way, it’s well deserved.
Little bit surprised they chose Barrera over Read who has missed a lot of time. But I guess it’s because Read plays in Dominican Winter League.
Same could be for Robles who I thought may also be here.
I surely thought it would be interesting to see Telmito Agustin in the AFL but they obviously felt against that.
Rhett Wiseman who probably deserved this. But no luck for him.
Surprised no James Bourque either after year he had. No Sharp or Crowe.
Kieboom was a lock and glad to see DJ back. Surprised to see Noll and Barrera.
Reyes missed time that is why he is there and the rest of the pitchers it was a toss up I’m sure in decision making.
And even though Read and Robles aren’t on initial rosters players can still be added later even after MLB season so these names are tenative.
Agustin could play Dominican winter ball too. Worth remembering that he was born in the USVI, but his family is actually Dominican and he identifies as Dominican, and he was signed as an international amateur rather than drafted out of the U.S. territory. Not that all DWL players are Latin, of course, but fair to say most of them are.
AFL: Hooray, I was right on Kieboom, Johnson, and Reyes. I would hope/guess this means Robles, McGowin, and A. Williams will be getting MLB time.
The big “omission” to me is the choice of Noll over Davidson, even though Davidson’s OPS at the AA level is .119 points higher and he’s more versatile.
No one would see it coming, but I wonder if Davidson could get a cup of coffee as well. He has to be added to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft this winter, and with his numbers and positional versatility and the fact he’s not yet 26 (birthday is in January), I have to think he’d hold some interest to a rebuilding club like the Orioles or Royals.
That being said, the Nationals might figure they’re good on outfielders, thanks, and Davidson is surplus. I don’t really know, and I haven’t always agreed with their decisions about who to let go (Richard Bleier [1.97 ERA, 3.6 rWAR over three MLB seasons] and Neftali Soto [.933 OPS, 27 homers in 77 games in Japan], anyone?).
Interesting tid bit. Both Williams and McGowin were in AFL last year and had poor showings to the point you were wondering when either or both might be released. But they both bounced back this year with glowing seasons showing that a bad AFL performance can lead to a good regular season. Interesting on both.
The real surprise on the AFL is the inclusion of Jordan Mills. We signed him two years ago after the Astros released him. He’s been pretty good this season, but he’s 26 years old. Taylor Guilbeau is maybe an even weirder selection than Mills, if only because he’s not R5 eligible this winter, so the Nats have no need to “see what they’ve got” with Guilbeau, which they do with Mills. There’s like 5 relievers in Potomac and Harrisburg, who’ve been as good or better than Mills and Guilbeau, and are several years younger: Howard, McKinney, Bourque, even Williams.
Guilbeau is Rule 5 Draft Eligible for the first time this December, as are Crownover, Andrew Lee, Sagdal, Wiseman, Pantoja, Reetz, Weston Davis, and (if they haven’t been released) Peterson, Brinley, La Bruna, and Borne.