Friday’s News & Notes

23 Commments

1. Will, don’t look now, but Agustin drew a walk for the second day in a row. Once is an accident, two’s a trend . . .

2. One positive with Stoeckinger — he hasn’t walked anyone through four starts. Tetrault is striking out a lot more guys that Stoeckinger — 22 in 20.2 IP — but he has also walked seven. Both of those Jacksons are big fellas from JUCOs, so they may require a little more time and polishing. We’ll see.

3. All this talk of trades this week got me thinking about how good this farm system could be if we stood pat. I went back through our trades since 2015 and we dealt the following players:

   Pitchers:
   Taylor Hearn
   Pedro Avila
   Jesus Luzardo
   Dane Dunning
   Lucas Giolito
   Reynaldo Lopez
   Tyler Watson
   Jeffrey Rosa
   McKenzie Mills
   Travis Ott
   Danny Rosenbaum
   Nick Pivetta

   Hitters:
   Sheldon Neuse
   Chris Bostick
   Max Schrock
   Steven Souza
   Tony Renda

   I haven’t included the artist formerly known as Felipe Rivero or Blake Treinen since they were regular big leaguers before we dealt them.

   But that’s quite a list!

   A couple flame outs (Rosenbaum, Renda, Rosa) and a bunch of top 100s (Luzardo, Lopez, Giolito, Dunning, Avila, Neuse and Souza all were or are making a case) .

   Meanwhile, Dunning and Luzardo just got promotions and look like they’ll get a call up sooner than later.

   1. Bostick wasn’t a Nat draftee; came as part of the return for what little was left of Detwiler’s career. But the Nats did help him developmentally. He got a cup of coffee, like Renda, but I don’t see a great loss there.

      As we said a few days ago, every trade is a gamble. The success the Nats had drafting or signing and then developing these guys made them worth something on the market. Maybe they got a return that helped them; maybe they didn’t. Certainly some were debatable, and we’ve debated. The best major-leaguer on that list thus far is Souza, and it sure looks like the Nats “won” that trade. The only others who are showing well in the majors thus far are Lopez and now Pivetta, after a couple of years of struggling. I wrote a few days ago about how the Nats’ failures to develop quality back-end relievers cost them a number of these guys, including Pivetta. I don’t regret the Eaton trade; I just regret that he can’t stay healthy!

      1. Also, the Nats got a pretty decent player in Gushue in exchange for the Bostick DFA.

4. Keeping an eye on Jeyner Baez. Glad he’s getting a shot.

   1. OK, I’ll bite — what do you know about Baez that we don’t? In five pro seasons, he’s only appeared in 124 games. He’ll turn 23 this summer.

      The Nat catcher who seems to be progressing decently and under the radar is Barrera. He’s hitting significantly better than Reetz at Potomac thus far. I’ll be interested to hear Luke’s take on how he looks defensively.

   2. the main guy from the barrett boy bunch.
      Hello from Norfolk, VA
      Gil. are we patient enough to wait out Murphy and Eaton returning as the Nats
      tread water in the division?

5. Baez has always had high CS %, actually over 50% for his minor league CAREER. And his bat is not shabby, and really came on in the last month at Auburn. I expected him to get a shot at Hagerstown, just did not know how that fit in with the other catching talent at the low minors, especially those who were injured and did not play but were college products (Moroni, Harris).

   The catcher I am very excited about is Pineda, who debuted at GCL last year at 17 and played very well. Hopefully we’ll be talking about him in August. But I’ve wanted to see Baez get play for a long time.

6. About the minor leaguers trade: everyone knows that I was always a big Schrock fan and of that list, his departure is the most troublesome, because the Nats got nothing more than a rental spare part.

   Minor league systems exist to feed the majors, either directly or indirectly. Luzardo looks amazing, Neuse was on fire right through the AFL and is now in AAA, and Treinen is thriving. But the Nats have the two most important parts of their bullpen, and Doolittle is controlled through 2020. Can;t complain.

   As for Lopez/Dunning/Giolito, Eaton is hurt, but his production to date is still ioutpacing whatever major league production the White Sox return has generated. And he is here until 2021. If the Nats did not do this deal in retrospect, it’s only because they signed Harper and/or Soto and or Johnson is ready in 2019 (Robles’ readiness being a given). Eaton is still an outstanding player to have on one’s team at any salary, and we’ll see that.

   Hearn and Rivero is a bad outcome of a deal with the ambition for a closer return. Rivero’s career with the Nats was as dead as AJ Cole’s is now. That Melancon did not stay was abummer, but Rizzo was trying to win a championship and Melancon was key to that – it was not a Rzcepzynski deal, and the Nats really tried to sign him.

   Souza and Ott went for Turner. And Souza would have had trouble cracking the current and future lineup. And by the way, I wrote here months ago, at the outset of the spring, that I expected Stevenson to make the step up in his game. I hope he gets his shot. Very underrated talent. As for Ott, he’s been moved to the bullpen, even as he is continuing to climb.

   Pedro Avila was a giveaway stinker deal. But his upward path is far from guaranteed – he’s still only in A+, two years later.

   Pivetta is a major leaguer. So what? It’s not like he’d be even a 5th starter in DC.

   McKenzie Mills is hardly dominant, and Kendrick here has been well worth it.

   Tyler Watson brought us Brandon Kintzler. Also well worth letting go, as Watson has a looong way to go.

   We all need to chill out. It’s a long year and a number of players are getting their feet wet at upper levels. I fully expect Daniel Johnson to take off, and can name 5-10 players that I think will have very impressive stat lines at year’s end when all is said and done.

   The major league team looks unimpressive, with the same lack of ninth inning fight that made me sick of Matt Williams’ teams. And there have been some very underwhelming performances. But again, some will rise and we need to sit tight and recognize that even as the Nats struggle, there are certain laws of nature. Like, The Mets will always be good enough for their fans to get arrogant, and then deflate. And these are not Jayson Werth’s Phillies.

   Overall, I like the trigger I see from the Nats brass about getting players in who can play. Matt Reynlds, for example, is an intriguing insurance policy at a time that we do not know about Zimmerman’s (and now Rendon’s) health. And there are other underrated pieces as well in the Nats minor league system. You don’t need Sickels to tell you that.

   1. Thanks, good writeup.

7. Mark Reynolds, forgive me.

8. One last note – one has to truly appreciate this year’s Hagerstown Suns as a developmental league team. Never have the Nats so aggressively pushed underage talent. And Garcia and Antuna are struggling offensively, but they are showing enough signs of life. Freeman is debuting and playin after a pitch to the head. A guy with supposedly zero power already with two home runs. And look at Armond Upshaw – they threw 400K at him and he showeed absolutely nothing in 2016 and 2017. But now, kicked up a level despite no results, he is showing defense, speed, and leaping forward at the dish. Anderson Franco is only 20, and, all teasing of Agustin aside, there is plenty of time for him to break out. I’m still on the Franco bandwagon.

   Sure, there are players who are underperforming mightily – Banks, Esthay. But there are others, like Brandon Bogetto, who carried zero expectations and are showing maturity. There are others waiting in the wings if they do not get it done (Pryor, Guibor, Choruby, Senior, Mendez, Connell), others who will get their shot at 2017 draftees who played at Auburn and GCL. So there may be plenty of good returns to come.

   And, the MLB draft brings in new talent in two months. By June, the organization will know its needs much better. It will also be interesting to see how many of the huge international signing class go straight to GCL and how that affects draft priorities. As this thread underscores, you can always trade low minors pitching for major league assets.

   As I see it, the organization needs to draft power and they need to draft hitters who are athletic enough to play multiple positions. The 2017 returns on pitching will be quite positive.

   1. I’ve seen positive signs from the aggressive promotions too, so that’s been encouraging. Admittedly there are a few guys like Bogetto that I’ve never heard of, but I’ve watched the DR kids there with interest. I am also intrigued with Franco. I don’t know where his power went, but his K/BB ratio is extremely encouraging.

      Pitching – I dunno, I will have to see some extended results before committing. Voth and Fedde – ok, and I kinda like what JRod and Baez are doing, but overall, it looks like a clear weakness up and down the org, but I’d love to be wrong.

   2. Upshaw was given the task of learning switch hitting, which explains why he did so little for awhile.
      Same breakout timing-wise as Perkins.

9. Wally – if it were such a weakness, they would not have been able to make the trades they have. Other value the Nats prospects highly.

   What you may be missing are the players who are now working in long relief, attempting to establish their starting bonafides. People like K Johnston and Braymer. They will be in the rotation in Hagerstown and Potomac if their success continues and others tail off. There are others who have not yet been seen, but they are lurking in XST – Weston Davis, Jared Johnson, Ryan Williamson, Andrew Lee, Gilbert Chu, Grant Borne. And we have not yet even begun to see Romero, yes, that Romero. And we will.

   I’m just saying that its far from empty. Remember how Rey Lopez emerged from nowhere one summer, after early struggles. It’s been cold. Keep the faith.

   1. I’m not sure if T.S. Eliot was a prospect follower, but April is a cruel month: cold, rain, hot starts, and a lot of projection. I feel like I say it every year but it bears repeating – don’t get too high on a guy until the whole league sees him at least once. That’s difficult for the “A” teams with their unbalanced schedules, but a general rule of thumb is sometime between Mother’s Day and Memorial Day.

      Thanks to Forensincane for some long and thoughtful comments.

      1. Yes, my jetlag keeps me from writing out long prose like Gil Grissom. ty. kudos to you, Luke.
         Franco is built for a major league career. Great lower half build.He is accepting the 1b skills too.
         May flowers may flowers. Nats 15-2 win in SF a foretaste of the May/June to come with warmer
         winds.

10. Fore – I wasn’t saying past pitching prospects weren’t good, just that the current crop seems lacking.

    But I hope you’re right, and will be more than happy to acknowledge your faith. I’m not see many obvious examples of it right now, but will stay tuned.

    1. They’ve banked a lot on the pitchers they drafted in 2017, plus perhaps a resurgence of some of the Latin arms, so many of whom struggled last year. The Voth comeback is significant news for big-league depth, and Mapes’s recovery helps at the next level. He may no longer be a “prospect” — if he was ever really considered one — but he was a very consistent pitcher through AA. I’m sure Voth staying good was part of the calculus behind them thinking they could give up Giolito/Lopez/Dunning.

       By the way, none of the pitchers picked after Romero — Little, Pearson, and Lange — has been great, but at least they’re actually pitching. So far Crowe has been better than all of them, but of course he’s also a little older.

       1. Mapes…to borrow the projection from a good friend…looks like the Craig Stammen replacement
          in 6/7 slot.

11. F. P. says that Aaron Barrett pitched in West Palm yesterday — for the first time in almost three years — and was throwing 91-92.

12. KW – the progress of Fedde may not be as surprising as that of Voth, but may be more tangible a leap, and certainly welcome. Multiple Nats minor leaguers that I spoke to when I went to spring training said he took a leap forward in how hard he was throwing.

    Don’t sleep on John Simms folks. He’s getting there.

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