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The BA Prospect Handbook, Part Two

Alright, no sense in wasting time; here’s nos. 16-31:

16. Kelvin Gutierrez 21. Osvaldo Abreu (15) 26. Jose Marmolejos
17. Sheldon Neuse 22. Raudy Read (22) 27. Tyler Watson
18. Jakson Reetz (14) 23. Edwin Lora (22) 28. Telmito Agustin
19. Brian Goodwin (31) 24. Jose Sanchez 29. Joan Baez (18)
20. Blake Perkins (12) 25. Yasel Antuna 30. Matt Skole
YOUR AD HERE 31. Nick Banks

It’s worth noting that this year there are three IFAs who are ranked in the Top 31 without playing a single inning of affiliated baseball (Garica, Sanchez, and Antuna) and five total that cost the Nationals $900K or more in signing bonuses.

Good for them, but here’s the obligatory reminder of what it’s like for the other 99% of minor-leaguers. / steps off soapbox

As mentioned yesterday, the list is now tilted towards IFAs 16 of the 31. The past two drafts is still sizable portion (seven), though it falls off precipitously (not only that Skipper, it drops off pretty quick) after that: two from 2014, none from 2013.

Here’s a breakdown of the newcomers:

2016 Draft – Carter Kieboom (8), Jesus Luzardo (15), Sheldon Neuse (17), Nick Banks (31)

2015 Draft – Tyler Watson (27)

Int’l Free Agent – Luis Garcia (7), Kelvin Gutierrez (16), Jose Sanchez (24), Yasel Antuna (25), Jose Marmolejos (26), Telmito Agustin (28)

I suppose I could further break down the IFAs by their signing year, but I also think that would be really splitting hairs.

Finally, here’s BA 2020 projected Washington lineup, which ignores such things as free agency, injury, or a sudden decline in skills. BA didn’t project the 2017 lineup in the 2014 book, which I find a bit odd since they marketed it as a “secret weapon for fantasy league success” so we’ll miss out on seeing how wrong they were three years ago. (They brought it back in 2015).

C – Pedro Severino
1B – Daniel Murphy
2B – Wilmer Difo
SS – Trea Turner
3B – Anthony Rendon
LF – Adam Easton
CF – Victor Robles
RF – Bryce Harper
#1SP – Max Scherzer
#2SP – Stephen Strasburg
#3SP – Erick Fedde
#4SP – Joe Ross
#5SP – Austin Voth
CL – Koda Glover

Feel free to discuss in the comments. By the way, is there anything on TV tonight worth watching?

7 Commments

  1. Thank you for the article.
    Just one point. Tyler Watson is a 2015 draftee.
    Watson’s rank (27) is a surprise for me. He was drafted as a high schooler and spent very good first two professional seasons. I expect something big with him.

  2. I love the projection of future line-ups, even though it is a futile exercise. I would not put any credence in a guess that Murphy and Harper will be with the team in 2020, though.

    1. It would be a more valuable exercise if it automatically assumed that any player who will be past his free agency date will not re-sign. That way they could fill in a couple more of the prospects to give an idea of what the lineup might look like in the extremely unlikely event that all them pan out.

      Under that scenario, C. Kieboom would likely be 3B, Soto would be RF, Ward or Marmolejos would be 1B and Luzardo would be the lefty SP.

  3. Luke I find interesting that Lora has on his heels two of the bonus baby IFA infielders.

    That lefty from Fresno State looks interesting in college crop

  4. Huge, huge deltas between BA’s list and Law’s list for some guys. Very interesting to see how these two lines of thought diverge on players. For example:
    – BA has Luis Garcia #7; Law didn’t rate him among his top 20.
    – BA has Neuse down at #17, Law #7.
    – Abreu: 21 for BA, 11 for Law.
    – Joan Baez; 29th for BA (in other words, basically a non-prospect) and 10th for Law.
    – Watson: 27th for BA, Law 15.

    Watson I think is the one I most “don’t get” for BA. If a 2016 college draft pick had gone to short-A and tossed 43 innings of 1.88 ERA ball, you’d say “yeah he really competed against his fellow draft class.” So all Watson did is do the same thing as a 19yr old in his first full season of pro ball, against competition where he was on average 2.4 years younger. Yeah he went up to Low-A and got hit … he was on average 2.9 years younger than his opponents.

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