Good, Bad, Interesting… 2016 Season Final

27 Commments

1. Luke, I’d be very interested to hear your thoughts on Marmolejos after watching him a good portion of the season. Did he look like a legit MLB prospect, or more like a very good minor-league doubles machine? I’ve also heard there are a lot of questions about his defense.

   Another player I’d be interested in your thoughts on is Davidson, who gets almost no “prospect” notice. His stats were very good, better than those of several more-heralded guys in the organization, although my guess is that his future may be at 2B, if his defense can support it, as he hasn’t shown the HR power you’d like to see for a corner position. The one recent game I saw the P-Nats, I came away more impressed with Davidson than I did Abreu or Mejia, which surprised me a bit.

   1. People smarter than I am think “The Orange” will top out at AAA. I’ll say this much: if he doesn’t develop more power, he’ll be passed over because I don’t think he’s agile or fast enough to play in the OF.

   2. Davidson didn’t really impress me much in the limited time that I saw him.

      1. Thanks for the feedback. That sounds a lot like what the general impression has been on Orange, a solid minor-league hitter, but without the HR power to be much of an MLB prospect at 1B.

2. Team G/B/D

   Good
   Bat: GCL Nats, batted .273/.341/.390/.732; all those numbers were the best in the league, except OBP which was .001 away from best
   Arm: DSL Nats, 3.29 ERA, 8.4 K/9 (4th best of 42 teams), 3.6 BB/9, despite being on the young side (avg age 18.7, 10th youngest of 42).

   Bad
   Bat: Tie – DSL Nats, absolutely abysmal .233/.310/.298. They hit 3 total HR in over 2600 plate appearances, which was easily the fewest in the league. However, equally dishonorable were the Auburn Doubledays, who somehow managed to hit even worse than the DSL Nats, .232/.296/.304. They finished last in the NYPL in BB, 2B and HR, among other stats.
   Arm: None, per se.

   Interesting
   Bat: Syracuse finished dead last in BA, OBP, SLG and obviously thus OPS in the IL, and Harrisburg finished last in SLG and OPS in the EL, yet weren’t so exceptionally bad that they didn’t qualify for “Bad”.
   Arm: All 4 upper levels. We were remarkably consistent, if unspectacular, across each levels (in descending order, AAA->A).
   ERA: 3.79, 3.75, 3.78, 3.77
   K/9: 7.4, 7.3, 7.0, 7.8
   BB/9: 2.7, 3.3, 3.4, 3.2
   WHIP: 1.308, 1.326, 1.354, 1.327

   Overall, it was a horrible year collectively for offense, despite a few individual bright spots. Pitching-wise, it was ok. We typically finished in the middle of the pack.

3. Wow; when the guy whose OPS is .703 qualifies as the “good” bat in Auburn … yikes. That’s awful.

   Overall, though, more good than bad. I think the Nats’ system should be solid for the next couple of seasons even with Turner graduating.

   1. Barrera gets some “good” slack since he’s a catcher, I guess. But yes, in general it was a very disappointing late summer for the college hitter draftees, particularly those at Auburn. Simonetti hit pretty well at Viera, but they gave Kerian and Ripken lingering chances at 1B ahead of him at Auburn.

      I’m wary of judging too quickly on the college kids, though, as they’ve had long seasons and a big transition. When they can hit the ground running and do as well as Dunning did, that’s impressive. They seem to have envisioned Bogucki as similar to Dunning, a college long reliever/spot starter who could transition to starting. Maybe he still can. He’ll certainly have a little incentive to work harder in the offseason. Same for Banks, Neuse, Johnson, and the other college hitters who didn’t exactly rake.

      Here’s a question, though, do you leave those hitters back for another turn at Auburn, or push them on ahead for a full season at Hagerstown? They’re going to need at least some of them to back-fill at Hagerstown, whether they’ve “earned” the promotions or not. They’ll still have a fair amount of proving themselves to do in the fall instructional league.

      1. Case in point: Ian Sagdal and Rhett Wiseman had bounce back seasons after having pretty miserable first seasons. Matthew Page, Austin Davidson and Alec Keller were the same story the year before.

         With that said, there’s been even more examples of guys never finding their bat: Carey, Gardner, Williamson, Langlois, etc. etc.

         1. I keep thinking that Banks profiles pretty similarly to Wiseman. He didn’t K as much at Auburn as Wiseman did last year, though, but he also didn’t homer as much (5 for Rhett, 0 for Nick).

4. The Nats’ organization overall pretty well reflects Rizzo’s philosophy–load up on power arms. Fortunately, they tried to balance things a bit more this past year, and it will be fun to watch Soto, C Kieboom, Antuna & Garcia rise through the system.

   They are also very prospect top heavy with the top 10 or so (Giolito, Lopez, Fedde, Robles, Soto, Glover, C Kieboom, Voth, Dunning, Severino) all potential impact players at the MLB level, but with a steep drop off after that.

   1. Is this typical for most organizations? I mean, how many teams have potential and apparent high-end major leaguers as their 12-20th prospects?

      1. I think what’s notable is that we have 5 top 50ish prospects (if we include Turner). That’s exceptionally high- on average you’d expect each team to have 1-2 prospects in that range. After that, there’s a big drop off. We have very few mid-range prospects after that, either high-ceiling, high-risk types like Soto, Franco, Kieboom, Antuna, etc. who are too far off to be classified as top prospects just yet (with the exception of Soto), or lower-ceiling, low-risk prospects, like Cole, Voth, Goodwin, Severino, Difo, etc. Most of those guys would fit in around the top 200 prospects, but not be very close to the top 100. Normally, you’d expect the players to be more evenly distributed.

         For example, check out Fangraphs’ organizational rankings. We have 5 of the top 87 players (those in the 60+ scouting range) or in other words 6% of the top prospects are Nationals (way above average). But in the middle-tier of prospects, those in the 50-55 scouting range, 15 of 455 are Nationals. That’s about 3% (below average).

         I think most clubs would prefer to be top heavy like the Nationals. Top prospects are top prospects for a reason: they’re more likely to be impact MLB players. However, that isn’t to say the Nats’ farm system is perfect.

5. Next roster decision–who gets DFA’ed when Ross is activated. My money on Bostick, who despite playing well at Harrisburg not only had a steep drop off at Syracuse (his OPS declined by a whopping .259), but also had a sharp decline in his overall stolen base numbers. He also is just not a good enough a hitter to overcome striking out more than once every four ABs.

   1. Bostick seems a safe bet though I won’t be surprised if it’s Rafael Martin. He’s only faced two batters since being called up 9/1 and he appears to be low man on the bullpen totem pole. Combine that with being 32 and not having a stellar season in AAA, and he could be deemed expendable by the FO.

      1. Bostick is safe. He’s still only 23, far younger than Taylor or Goodwin, and plays a premium position (2B).

         It will definitely be a pitcher that gets the axe. Martin is a good guess, but Latos is another option. If Ross comes back as a long reliever, he’ll essentially take Latos’ role. But we’re also now flush with LOOGYs. Rzep, Burnett, Perez and Grace is excessive, so Burnett could figure to be the odd man out.

         1. Burnett could be the odd man out, but he does keep pitching effectively. Even his baserunners last night didn’t really hit the ball well – Burnett got BABIP’d a bit, but hung in there. With that crossfire pitching motion he figures to be tough on lefties, and that’s held up pretty well. If Solis can’t make it back, I’d rather have Burnett and Scrabble as the LHRP over Perez.

      2. The other problem with Bostick is that he is suspect on defense and profiles as a utility infielder. Guys like that are a dime a dozen.

         I also don’t think a pitcher will be cut because with the division essentially won and with Ross building up strength the Nats want the scrubs to soak up as many innings as possible even to spell Scherzer and Roark a bit. Expect a lot more games with Dusty using 6-8 relievers.

   2. Bostick had an .818 OPS at AA at age 23. That’s far better at the plate than Difo has done at that level. (But Difo can play SS.) Bostick also showed some good power potential, particularly last year and in AZ. So I think you just have to concentrate on his AA success and acknowledge that he’s got a learning curve for the next level.

      Could he be on the DFA chopping block? Yeah, but count me among those who think it will be Martin. It’s not Latos, who generally pitched well on Monday. Perez is the worst of the lefties, but he’s still owed $4M next year.

      1. Latos won’t make the post-season roster, there’s too many pitchers ahead of him on the depth chart, especially when we only have to use a 3 or 4 man rotation. We’ll be flush with long-relievers. Gonzalez, Strasburg, Ross, Lopez, Petit and/or Giolito will all be better options than Latos.

         Plus, he’s not signed beyond this year, so it makes little sense to give up a potentially useful (Bostick) or expensive (Perez) instead of a player who has no future with the club.

         1. A lot will depend on whether Stras and Ross are healthy. If they are, then postseason bullpen slots are going to be very tight. They might not even keep a “long man” (Petit, Latos, or Cole), figuring the odd man out between Gio and Ross could fill that role. If they do keep a long man, I wouldn’t rule out Latos (if he’s not hurt). Right now, he may be ahead of Petit in the pecking order. Petit seems to be somewhat in the doghouse right now.

6. Since this is a season-ending thread, and playoffs over, and we are on the minor leagues, as promised, an end of season top-50 prospect list to stir the pot. With the following caveats…

   To me, age at level matters, dominance matters, carrying performance to the next level matters, organizational need helps. Above all, performance matters, as demonstrated by a variety of indicators, including the excellent Hagerstown performance with Jackson Reetz catching their staff, and his good OBP despite low BA. And it matters more than sexiness, as evidenced by Paolo Espino’s quiet reliable competence at the AAA level.

   That explains why people are lower on this list or not at all. It’s impossible to rank an outfielder high who does not yet show any pop or elite skill (Banks) despite hype, and I could not place a player who is heavily hyped and defends well (Perkins) but likewise has lesser demonstrated leadoff skills than numerous players stuck in the rookie leagues like Perdomo Upshaw.

   Lopez gets my vote at the top because he is young, carried a run of dominance in his first year at AA higher and with real flashes at levels above. Robles gets a higher nod than Giolito because by season’s end and at 19, he was really turning it on and kept it on through the playoffs. When Giolito is at the top of my list, assuming he does not graduate first, it will be performance alone.

   There are many notables missing here. In some instances they are players like Perkins who are heavily hyped (eg. Perkins) but who have not yet demonstrably shined enough to envision a major league ceiling. In other instances they are players with good offensive numbers whose defense is marginal (Read) or familiar prospects who noticeably declined (S. Kieboom).

   As some of you know, all year I have been speaking of Avila as the breakout player of the full season, and Soto of the half season. But since this list introduces other lesser heralded names, you will note how impressed I am with the season of a lefty starter 9ramirez) who skipped the GCL altogether at age 19 and fared well. That’s top-20 stuff, all bonuses aside.

   Rey Lopez M
   Victor Robles A+
   Koda Glover M
   Luke Giolito M
   Juan Soto R

   Pedro Severino M
   Erick Fedde AA
   A.J. Cole M
   Pedro Avila A-
   Wilmer Difo AAA

   Austin Voth AAA
   Rafael Bautista AA
   Andrew Stevenson AA
   Drew Ward AA
   Jose Marmelos AA

   Tyler Mapes AA
   Brian Goodwin AAA
   Kelvin Gutierrez A+
   Tyler Watson A-
   Yonathan Ramirez SS

   Anderson Franco R
   Telmito Agustin A-
   Weston Davis SS
   Carter Kieboom R
   Matt Grace AAA

   John Simms AA
   Stephen Fuentes SS
   Dane Dunning SS
   Hector Silvestre A-
   Michael Brady AA

   Jakson Reetz A-
   Joan Baez A-
   McKenzie Mills SS
   Ian Sagdal A-
   Bryan Harper AAA

   Paolo Espino AAA
   Ed Lora A-
   Matt Skole AAA
   Wander Suero AA
   Mariano Rivera A-

   Chris Bostick AAA
   Osvaldo Abreu A+
   Andrew Lee A-
   Austin Davidson A+
   Nick Banks SS

   Francys Peguero R
   Matt Crownover A+
   Jake Noll A-
   Daniel Johnson SS
   Randy Encarnacion A-

   Anyway, I am sure there are many disagreements. But since this is a board of well-qualified observers of minor league ball and the farm system, your input and debate saves us all from having to be subjected to mlb-Law-(insert favorite pundit) as ground truth.

   Thanks, Luke, for keeping this aflame. Thanks all for adding the lighter fluid.

   1. Mega dittos luke in keeping the board going amidst your life
      Challenges
      Several thoughts : my one from earlier in season : Agustin sticking
      @ hags enabled page experiment as
      1b
      Shepard is the personal caddie to a healthy Ryan Williamson
      2016 Hags proved that you cannot
      Put much salt into the stats / results in auburn
      More chances for Kerian a guy wgo switch hits and can play both corners .
      What a differrence a year can make
      Especially for guys who began spring in ncaa programs then
      Jumped into the pro level frying pans
      Simonetti could be very interesting
      In 2017
      Franco and Mota too
      Right GIl ??
      Angher , Mooney and Fuentes plus some of those DSL arms who will
      Progress

   2. Interesting to see wgo is on fall
      IL roster
      Again. What if andrew Lee was healthy to pitch in in A plus or minus playoff push ??

   3. Good work, fore.
      I’m still very high on Drew Ward; he held his own after promotion to AA, heads to the AFL, and is still only 21. A bright future awaits.

      Let’s not forget Tyler Mapes; a 30th rounder in 2014, at AA he had an impressive 3.19 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. You don’t get many chances to impress when you’re a 30th rounder, but he sure took advantage of his chances.

7. I continue to believe Tyler Watson is one of the most important players in the Nats’ system despite having only pitched 71 innings as a pro.

   The reality is the Nats just don’t have many LH starters in their system so that makes Watson standout more and add to his value. If you assume he continues to ascend the system – granted, no guarantee – he should be at AA sometime late next year or early in 2018 and that puts him on pace to be MLB ready in 2019, which just so happens to be the year Gio Gonzalez comes off the books.

   With Ross, Cole, Lopez, Giolito, Fedde, Voth, Avila and Dunning, the Nats are loaded with RH starters in the system to go along with Scherzer, Stras and Roark, who are all under team control for at least 3 more years.

   But LH starters at Hagerstown or higher? Hector Silvestre might bounce back enoug to become a future starter but that’s still a big question mark. Guilbeau and Borne look more like they’ll be relievers as they move up and Crownover looks like he’ll be fortunate to be a 5th starter or long reliever in the bigs while Jesus Luzardo, who could be a stud in time and the kids in the DSL are at least two years behind Watson.

   All of which makes Watson a key piece to the Nats going forward. It’s a lot to put on the kid but so far everything about the 19-year old suggests there’s reason to believe in him.

8. You are overlooking Mills and Ramirez, who will graduate to Hagerstown in ’17 with Davis and Dunning in a rotation to be reckoned with.

   1. Not overlooking them. Just see Watson as ahead of them.

      And agree about Hagerstown’s rotation to start next season. Gonna be a good one.

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