Tuesday’s News & Notes

25 Commments

1. I’m really not sure what to make of the club’s handling of prospects promotions/demotions this year.

   Last year, Rizzo (or someone else in the FO) said that AA is the highest level a pitcher needs to go before promotion. This was in reference to Giolito, and speculation as to whether he could be called up last season. Basically, pitchers at AA are just as much ‘in the mix’ for a promotion as players in AAA.

   Hence, it’s a bit odd why they’d promote Glover another level. I mean it’s not that big of a deal, but it becomes more notable because of the complete lack of other promotions in the minors this season.

   Please feel free to add to those I’ve forgotten, but Glover, Harper, Benincasa and Valdez are the only promotions of those that could be considered prospects (A. Robinson and Ross are excluded, for example, as they’re simply org depth). Has a single batter been promoted this season?!

   It’s quite surprising compared to last season’s, sometimes frenetic approach to promotions, that Glover has not only been promoted, but twice now. He was always expected to be a fast riser, but it interesting that the Nats have remained aggressive with him, while being more cautious with many other players.

   Or maybe the FO has just been waiting until the All Star break to reshuffle the farm… It’s certainly overdue.

   1. I’ve been a Glover champion, but it’s not like he had mastered AA. He had been solid, but not dominant. It does look like they’ve got him on the fast track to be MLB-ready if needed, perhaps all the more so with Gott struggling and now on the DL.

      Jaron Long was also promoted, although he made AAA last year with the Yanks. At 24, he could still be considered a prospect, although since he was already released by another club, he’s also somewhat of a reclamation project. He posted promising numbers at Harrisburg, though.

      I don’t know that Bryan Harper has ever really been thought of as a “prospect,” but the guy keeps posting numbers everywhere that are hard to ignore, even as he’s barely breaking 90.

   2. to me Glover to AAA means he is in the mix for the MLB roster.

      there may be more prospects in AA but the level of competition in AAA is higher.

      1. Agreed. I mentioned in an earlier post that the problem with bringing Glover up is the adjustment time he would need. At AAA, he’ll be facing mostly older experienced hitters of the type who he’d face in the bigs. If he does well there, I would not be surprised to see him in Washington sometime this summer.

   3. There just haven’t been many position players worthy of promotion, and the ones that might be are young for their league. Victor Robles just turned 19. In addition to being blocked (which is only a minor concern) is already 2.3 years younger than the Sally League average. Also, his production has flattened out a bit over the last month. Given his age, think the Nats were committed to keeping Robles in the Sally League all year.

      Similarly, at Potomac, Drew Ward is a 1.5 years younger than league average, and he is having extended success at level for the first time in a full season league. What is the rush to promote him? What is the downside to letting complete a successful season in High A?

      Jose Marmolejos, who is right at the league average age, is following the path that he has throughout his time with the Nats:

      2013 – GCL Nats for the entire season
      2014 – Auburn for the entire season
      2015 – Hagerstown for the entire season

      The Nats will likely keep him at Potomac for the entire 2016 season.

      Finally, Andrew Stevenson is just under league average for the Carolina League, and his numbers don’t cry out for a promotion: .293/.350/.748 (1 HR).

      Absent injuries or performances where the player is almost not challenged at that level, the Nats aren’t going to promote their position players. Nats have had several players with solid seasons so far, but nobody who has busted out to a degree that requires moving him up a level.

      What is the rush?

      1. Agreed. The main difference between this year and last is the lack of injuries creating upward momentum. Along the same lines, I would guess that they would be going a little slower with Glover were it not for the bullpen’s recent struggles and Gott not being able to step up as expected.

      2. Exactly. Last year was an aberration that was fueled by injuries and perhaps a little desperation.

         Cynically, you might wonder if the Nats are also keeping some guys down to inflate their trade value next month. There may only be a handful of guys that are untouchable (e.g. Giolito, Robles, Lopez).

         Anyone care to disagree or pile on (disclosure: I could use some opinions here for an article I’m writing for a third party as an experiment).

         1. I think even the “untradeables” could be had if Trout really were to be made available by the Angles. The Nats are uniquely positioned there in that they could offer up a potential ace who is a hometown LA guy without really hurting themselves too much. Strasburg’s extension and Lopez’s emergence means they could afford to deal their uber pitching prospect in exchange for creating an all world outfield.

         2. Luke. Just a comment covering
            Much acreage about Nats holding back
            On promotions .
            Brass must believe that a kid should
            Earn promotion with no doubts coupled
            With another to plug into the hole vacated .
            Maybe my thoughts on some kids not
            hitting the other way is just part of the whole
            Thought on a guy earning the bump .
            Take into account ( right Gil?) that if
            Nats bump up Robles and Schrock someday
            Soon then does Augustin become the table
            Setter along with bumping Dulin and Jeffries
            Up since Anderson is such a great molder
            Of clay in young players ??!
            Other promotions in consideration may have
            The same dynamics in thought process

         3. Brass might be saying as Tom Hanks
            whispered in Saving Private Ryan : Earn
            This !

         4. Luke,

            I agree with your take on some of this talent, especially insofar as the Nats know whom they are negotiating for (Miller, Chapman) and whom they are negotiating against (Cubs, Rangers, others). Keeping a guy like Schrock low for a few weeks longer means reaping the rewards of his (and Stevenson’s) performance in the league all star games.

            With that said, I also agree that the system has few untouchables, and I would not include Rey Lopez in that list if we are talking Trout.

      3. I’ve jumped up and down before about guys getting derailed by too-rapid promotion, so I don’t want to sound like a hypocrite. (It would be interesting to know where Difo would be now, development-wise, if he had spent all of 2015 at Potomac, for the latest example.) But I’ll play devil’s advocate a bit here, with the reasoning that the Nats have very, very few legit everyday MLB position-player prospects in the upper minors. You could advocate for a Bostick or a Difo here or there, or a chance for Goodwin or even Skole with another team (as some have done recently). But you wouldn’t wager much on any of them when push comes to shove. (And yes, I know I’m leaving out that Trea kid, whose ascension is already assumed.)

         Anyway, my point is that some guys may need to be nudged ahead just so the Nats know what they have and can plan accordingly. They’ve got only one more year of Werth and just two more of Harper and Murphy, although it would be the understatement of the century to say that Bryce won’t easily be replaced. Could Robles or Wiseman be a candidate to follow Werth? Big numbers at Hagerstown have been known to vanish at Potomac, several steps from South Capitol. Stevenson is moving up faster but is more of a Revere comp. And succession plans don’t always run like clockwork. We had hoped that Severino or S. Kieboom might be ready to replace Ramos by 2017, but one of those guys now would be doing well just to supplant Lobaton.

         Regardless of what we think, my bet is that Stevenson and Ward will move up after the all-star break. I’m on the fence with Robles since he’s so young. I would rather Marmolejos stay at Potomac and try to consolidate his power there, as it’s been known to vanish at Harrisburg (Goodwin, Skole, Difo, et al.).

         1. Well said
            By the way. ChadTracy working with kids
            In farm??

      4. I think Karl brings up a good point to Pilchard’s question about what’s the rush?

         For example, Revere is looking like a pretty colossal failure, while Taylor has just recently shown signs of life. But the fact of the matter is our CFs have hit .224/.273/.342 this season, which is the 4th worst in baseball. Meanwhile, we have two extremely promising CFs excelling in the lower levels. Say we promoted Stevenson now to AA, and he tears up pitching there. That puts him in line to join the team next Spring or mid-2017. It also clears space for Robles to get promoted to A+, and then AA in 2017. That puts Robles into the majors equation for 2018.

         But if we stick to the one-level-per-season approach. Robles reaches Washington in 2020 or Stevenson in 2019.

         Plus, if you want to maximize your return on team-control seasons. You want to get them to the majors by age 24-25, as they begin to decline by age 30 (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hitters-no-longer-peak-only-decline/).

         1. Stevenson needs to tear up Single A before tearing up AA. Robles was 18 when the season started. FWIW, I don’t think Stevenson projects to much more than a 4th MLB OF. If he tears up AA next year, he could come up to the Nats next year (FWIW, Revere is under contract for 2017, and both Revere and MAT had impossibly awful BABIP to start the season; over the last month+ the offensive production out CF has improved dramatically).

            Robles has superstar potential, but the Nats know how to pace his advancement. He will play in Potomac in 2017, and start 2018 in Harrisburg. The Nats will promote from AA to MLB. If Robles continues to thrive, a mid-season 2018 MLB debut is forseeable whether he spends the season in Hagerstown or Potomac.

            Fans always want to push the promotions. Feel like the front office knows what they are doing.

            1. I’m getting a bit off topic, but Revere and Taylor’s struggles aren’t entirely luck related, at least Revere’s anyway.

               Revere is making significantly worse contact this season. He’s hitting almost twice as many flyballs as he has in his career (which have the lowest chance of falling for a hit), and hitting line drives at one of the lowest rates in his career (which have the highest success rate of balls in play). Plus, he’s striking out at an all time high. Together, these indicate a potentially bigger problem, and might suggest that Revere’s offensive troubles are not entirely luck related. Yes, he’s been unlucky, but you also can’t expect things to simply normalize to his career avg BABIP of .320, when his batted ball profile has changed radically this season.

               Taylor’s more of an enigma, but he’s looking like the outfield version of Danny Espinosa. Take that as both an insult and a compliment.

            2. In their last 11 games played, Taylor’s OPS is 1.142 and Revere’s is .734. Revere has also stolen 5 bases in that stretch. Revere is finally healthy and platooning seems to suit Taylor well, so that Nats may actually have fixed this problem

            3. Good points on Revere. Always makes you wonder when a player under team control has played for 4 different organizations in 5 years. Have heard that scouts think his swing is “complex” which means that if everything isn’t in sync things fall apart.

               Taylor has an 18 game hitting streak in games that he has started. Hard to believe. Also, his K rate has improved over the last month. Maybe the player with the most raw tools in the organization. Ks will always be a problem for him. Playing CF and hitting for power won’t.

            4. I was not a fan of the pick of Stevenson last year, as I saw comps then to Revere (well before he became a Nat). It’s hard to fault Stevenson’s progression, though. He showed up after the CWS last summer, hit the ground running, and made such and impression that they sent him to Potomac to start this season, where he hasn’t missed a beat. I’m still not high on what his ceiling potential might be, but it’s hard to ask for more progression-wise.

               It will be interesting to see where the OF “competition” goes over the next few years with Robles, Wiseman, Perkins, and now Banks joining the race. (I wasn’t a fan of the Perkins pick, either, but I’m psyched about Banks.)

2. There has to be a correlation between
   Brass getting the draft class processed
   In Viera then farmed out . I notice XST TBD, Luke
   Has Corredor , Perdomo and Soto all lefty swingers
   Along with an infielder . GCL should have
   Much of the draft class influx . Corredor should
   See GCL?
   Interesting that DSL and Sandy Martinez playing
   Without a true 1b. Their best player Franklin Sierra
   Playing all over the diamond especially 1b.

   1. The numbers game increasing in lower
      Levels. Yorlin Reynoso cut as lefties
      Simmer in DSL and draft picks get processed
      In Viera

3. KW, I’m not sure I agree with your assessment of Severino. From most reports he’s an excellent defensive catcher who is batting 275 at AAA. And he’s young for the level.
   Lobaton is a good framer who has very little else going for him at the major league level.

4. Auburn is where the action is. Yonathan Ramirez comes up as a LH starter, age 19, skips GCL from Latin America, and has that kind of start? APPLAUSE to the next arm to watch. That’s who we should be talking about. Three LH arms in Auburn rotation, all HS products. Last year – they were all college products – Crownower (A+ meh), Borne (A- adrift), Hearn (A- and injured if promising), Guilbeau (A- and struggling mightily).

   I don’t think anyone would have predicted that the real stars of the pitching class would be pick 8 and lower. So here we are.

   Now that the all star break is over, and Glover up to AAA, perhaps Brinley will get a bump as well.

   1. Going to Wednesday game in Aberdeen
      Would you say something I disagree with?? Lol!
      Johnny D inked the new Lefty swinging OF
      Plus is onto apparently 3 middle Infielders and
      Several catchers ???
      Luke promotions without anticipation equals
      Perfect timing ??? Lol

5. Jeff – you must give a full report on Tyler Watson and co.

   For me, one of the most exciting things that happened all year in the farm season this year occurred this week: The Nats trotted out starting four pitchers in Auburn who have barely played/registered in the system, all of whom are HS level age, and each one of them shined: Say hello to Tyler Watson, Yonathan Ramirez, McKenzie Mills, and Weston Davis. Three are lefties.

   The Nats think enough of their starting 5 that Maximo Valerio, who was seemingly the most talented holdover Auburn arm, is pitching long relief. And shining, good news. As is Robbie Dickey, who is one of those examples from above that we figured was headed for bust after last year.

   Auburn is the team to watch right now. The Nats have not yet assigned any of their pitchers, and the talent in the SS is deep, deep. Dunning is coming into a better rotation than he had in Florida. Happy Days.

   Of course, that also means that there will be a pitching washout at Hagerstown to allow the upward mobility.

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