Tuesday’s News & Notes

21 Commments

1. Great start by Fedde, perhaps the best of his pro career. Avila posts another solid start as well, only marred by three walks. Solid relief work across three levels by 2015 draftees: Glover, Brinley, and Rivera.

   On the offensive front, there’s not too much to get excited about. Stevenson had a hit in each game and is still bopping along at .333, with little left to prove at Potomac (but blocked by Bautista at AA). Marmolejos has hit a wall, though, and is down to .253. At Hagerstown, it’s good to see two-hit games from Schrock and Sagdal, both of whom who had cooled a bit recently.

2. Just in time for the draft, at least we can see that the early promise for a number of position players has receded. The Nats continue to be an organization in which pitching depth far outpaces position player depth. There is a conspicuous, and arguably worsening lack of power in the system. Recent draft efforts to correct that (Wisemann, Reetz, Gardner, Page, Kerian) have not borne fruit, more recent Dominician signees (Soto) have yet to ripen, although Franco is a clear power bat prospect. As I see it, the Nats are close to returning to a system where the dropoff after several highest prospect talents is steep. Just to stir the pot, here’s my current top 50 after 40 games. I was going to do this much later, but it’s probably more fun to do this after every twenty games like Mel Kiper – style of who is rising and who is falling.

   The fastest riser is, of course, Avila, with notable risers like Brinley, Ward, Goodwin, Davis, Espino and Mapes. With that said, I am biased toward an established track record and being close to contributing, more recent signs of life, holding one’s own at a higher level at especially younger age, performance in pressure situations (relief pitchers) and against poor defensive skills, corner outfielders with no power (Keller types) pitchers who walk a lot of guys, current disability (which throws everything about realized potential into question) or no performance in 2016 (the XST crowd). So it isn’t that I am so so high on Brian Goodwin so much as I am less enthusiastic about others. I don’t share the same ageism that many posters do, if a player has never had the chance to show what he can do at a higher level and has been typecast unfairly (in my eyes). I call it the Souza factor, recalling how many debates I had on Todd’s board about whether Souza was a prospect as he came up, once he ignited in Hagerstown. There are players here that, in my opinion, simply need a chance once they turn it on and will seize it.

   Finally, I realize that a lot of what I am suggesting here (Giolito #3) is anathema to some, and so I celebrate the ability to prompt different ideas. Something to consider in the pre-draft, pre-int’l signing world.

   Trea Turner
   Victor Robles
   Luke Giolito
   Austin Voth
   Drew Ward

   Max Schrock
   Rafael Martin
   Rey Lopez
   Brian Goodwin
   Wilmer Difo

   Pedro Avila
   Koda Glover
   Andrew Stevenson
   Pedro Severino
   Anderson Franco

   Rafael Bautista
   Chris Bostick
   Erik Davis
   Paolo Espino
   Kelvin Gutierrez

   Telmito Agustin
   Bryan Harper
   Jose Marmolejos
   A.J. Cole
   Abel De Los Santos

   Ryan Brinley
   Mario Sanchez
   Spencer Kieboom
   Andrew Lee
   Tommy Peterson

   Mariano Rivera
   Taylor Hearn
   John Simms
   Tyler Mapes
   Erick Fedde

   Matt Grace
   Jeffrey Rodriguez
   Wander Suero
   Matt Crownover
   R.C. Orlan

   Jorge Pantoja
   Tyler Watson
   Maximo Valerio
   Bryan Mejia
   Ed Lora

   Jakson Reetz
   Ian Sagdal
   Phillips Valdez
   Blake Perkins
   Austen Williams

   1. Gil blame the hotel all you can eat
      Breakfast where the eggs always call for
      Ammodoum AD
      I guess I could sum up your post with :
      April /May showers and odd schedules
      With roadies and rain make ups have
      All guys out of sorts .
      The night Gio gets lit up we discuss
      Lefties in June draft .
      Lauer from WF. Dude from Auburn
      Hart from Indiana
      Rare to see kids grab ball in 1st frame
      And not start looking @ bullpen by fourth
      Or fifth to see what other split starter
      Warming up.

      1. Amen, baby. But true that most of the folks above were not at all around at this point last year. The system had had its own Emodium. And may indeed get it again. Robles seems to be doing fine ;), and he isn;t even getting home cooking.

         I am rooting for college products all the way. But if they cannot get power and high grade (Collins) catching two way talent, I’m hoping for lefty starters as are you.

         1. Most mock drafts don’t have Collins falling all the way to Nat territory. The top LH starting pitchers will be gone by then as well, with the ones remaining a bit of a reach at that point. I’m all in for two college power bats, but I have a feeling that one of the two picks will be a falling college RHP like Quantrill or Hansen. (Hansen reminds me of Meyer at best, who still hasn’t completely made it with the Twins, or Johanssen at worst.) My dream pick is for Will Craig to fall to the Nats, but I doubt he’ll last that long.

            The Nats did a great job in trolling for college LHPs 5th round and later in 2015, and I would imagine that will be their M.O. again.

            1. Even though he’s a RH 1B, Will Craig fills the biggest need for the Nats’ system among players who will likely still be there when they pick.

               He’s a big dude with a lot of power. He is definitely who I want the Nats to get.

   2. If the ranking is based upon upside, I would have Robles #1, Giolito #2 and Turner #3. If the ranking is based upon likelihood that the prospect will be a solid major leaguer, agree that Turner has to be #1.

      Not as concerned about a power shortage in the system. Nats have drafted and signed a lot of very athletic versatile offensive players, rather mongos that can hit the ball a mile, but very little else. Very common for players to develop power as they get older. Robles and Ward have demonstrated flashes of power and both are young for their level. Both profile to have 20+ HR power if they continue to develop.

      Would rather have complete players that may be slightly power shy, than a power bat that is a defensive liability and a base clogger. Tyler Moore posted huge power numbers in the minor leagues, yet he lacked the all around game to play at the MLB level. Not sure I would feel that much different about our system if the Nats had a couple more Tyler Moore type in High A and AA that were on pace for 30 dingers, but continued to have concerns about whether they can play competent defense on an MLB level.

      1. Well taken. Seems Turner has a bit of power, too. Don’t tell him, though.

         1. Turner homered in one of the first spring training games, and Dusty talked about it incessantly thereafter.

   3. Interesting list. I tend to place less emphasis on recency and look more at their recent track record over the past 2 seasons and place a greater emphasis on youth (hence, I’d have guys like Goodwin and Martin in much different spots).

      But there’s a couple of omissions that I’m not sure are intentional or not, especially given your criteria:

      Caleb Ramsey
      Osvaldo Abreu
      Stephen Perez
      Isaac Ballou

      Trevor Gott
      Taylor Hill
      Nick Lee

      1. Of that list, the only two that are close for me are Lee and Hill.

         Gott is not a rookie anymore, I think. If I am wrong, then I have to get him on there, of course. And Brady is not there because he is injured(?) or XST and I cannot gauge what the Nats have.

         Ramsey has no power, Ballou has no power and is 27 in AA, Perez is on the cusp (good eye and a SS) but just not as promising at age 25 as others, Abreu is not producing at all with the bat and is an able athlete, but he’s going to get passed by Lora or others unless he turns it on, Lee still walks too many damn guys despite his “stuff.” Hill imploded last year but he had a lot going for him and he’s done *better.* Just not good enough to displace who is on the list, to me at least. Were this to be a top 60, well yes, I’d have most of those guys in, along with Keller, who leads the system in RBI and is a smart player, and people like Baez, who has flashes but isn;t quite there, or Reyes, whose numbers are decent and he is young, or Self, who is performing to expectations at AA this year. But 50 is 50 and it’s arbitrary for all of us. Who’s to say whose system is wisest? But all of us can do better than the pundits!

         1. To me, Isaac Ballou and Brian Goodwin look very similar. Goodwin is only a few months younger than Ballou, so there isn’t a massive age gap.

            Nor is there a production gap. Ballou, who has no power, sports a career SLG of .404 (ISO: .134), while Goodwin’s SLG actually lower at .397 (ISO is .145). Both have good eyes- Goodwin 11.7% walk rate, and Ballou’s is 11.5%.

            Neither are defensive whizzes, though Goodwin is probably the better CF, though Ballou isn’t exactly a corner OF. He’s played nearly half of his games in CF, mostly only because of Goodwin and Bautista being more capable there.

            The only real difference I see between the two is that Goodwin comes perpetually marked with the prospect tag, having been drafted in the first round, while Ballou is perpetually overlooked because he was drafted in the 15th.

            You’re right about Gott, I hadn’t realized he pitched 48 G last year!

            I’d certainly include Abreu too. He’s struggled just as much as Mejia has this season, but from what I’ve read Abreu is the better defender (also a SS vs a 2B/3B). Also he appears to able to take a walk.

            But I’m being a bit nitpicky. We could disagree about placement of some others too, but it’s a good list.

            1. Goodwin is showing a lot of production this year. So my rationale is betting on the light having turned on for him, and his being past his shoulder injury.

               Mejia was hitting out of his mind last year, notwithstanding no walks. And with power. So I am not kicking him off the island, especialy since his bat has heated up recently and there is much left in the season. I see him as a better defensive version of Bostick, just with less SB potential.

               Again, these are all speculative. Abreu earns his love. As for Ballou, he is well regarded in these parts and even got his own Jeff nickname. He was drafted in rd 15 but took the system with authority that year. He just has never quite recaptured the promise. Goodwin may finally be getting there. Or he will get whacked by the Peter principle.

      2. Of that octet, the only one with a significant chance of a long-term stint with the big club is Gott. When he finds his control, he’ll get the call. Nick Lee would have a better chance in other organizations but is behind a number of LH bullpen arms here. He may get a chance in the majors somewhere else, though. Rizzo obviously thought there was some interest in him since he put him on the 40-man.

3. I see Bostick is up to .297avg and is already on the 40 man roster, so I wonder if he has a shot at the majors this year and/or perhaps has surpassed Difo. Stephen Drew is useless and Espinosa is having an offensive offensive season (.288 SLG would be the worst among qualified hitters since at least 2014). Bostick seems like he can play many positions and has some speed. I’d certainly rather give one of these young guys a chance later in the season rather than continuing to let the veteran guys flounder.

   1. Agreed.

      I don’t know what sort of dirt Danny and Drew have that keeps them in the big leagues, but neither have been of any use for over three years now.

      Worst case scenario is that Bostick (or Sizemore or Ryan for that matter) match Drew’s .140/.208/.302 or Espinosa’s .201/.307/.288 production levels.

      But I guess this won’t matter in a week or so when Turner gets promoted.

      1. Over a beer, perhaps Rizzo got Boras to take 3 million of Strasburg to pay back for Drew. Talk about running a welfare program for Todd’s ‘from Nats to Oblivion.’ We could all have seen that coming. Old mancrushes die hard for Rizzo.

         1. Don’t forget that Drew was a D-Back! He knows the secret handshake.

            1. Yes, ergo the mancrush. Thank the Lord for saving us from his bringing in Justin Upton with too much of daddy’s money. Not everyone is Matt Scherzer.

   2. Bostick has cut down on his K’s this year, but he has yet to show the power at AA that he had previously flashed. The same could be said of Difo’s power profile. Difo can play SS and steal more bases than Bostick, but Bostick has showed reasonable power in more seasons than Difo has. We’ll see. Both have shown enough to have a chance at a reserve role at the MLB level.

4. I am still enamored of Difo’s speed and dynamism – though I am quite aware that he statisticaly worse than many in the entire list. He is showing a better eye and he is trying out at SS, to which he has to reacclimate. Bostick is intriguing to me all those triples — I rank him higher, but I can’t get over a feeling of him being a guy without any position at all. But if he keeps his rise, he’ll create opportunities for himself, as he is young enough to do so.

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