Sickels Releases Top 20 Nats Prospect List
Last night, John Sickels released his Washington Nationals Top 20 prospects list for 2016. Here’s how it breaks down by letter grade:
| A | Lucas Giolito |
| A- | Trea Turner |
| B/B+ | Victor Robles |
| B | Reynaldo Lopez, A.J. Cole |
| B/B- | Erick Fedde |
| B- | Wilmer Difo, Anderson Franco, Austin Voth |
| B-/C+ | Andrew Stevenson |
| C+ | Osvaldo Abreu, Rafael Bautista, Christopher Bostick, Pedro Severino, Max Schrock, Rhett Wiseman |
| C+/C | Raudy Read, Abel De Los Santos, Koda Glover, Andrew Lee |
Let’s revisit my explanation for the layout…
The primary focus here is on letter grades, not numerical rank, which if you must know, you can get by going top to bottom, then left in each row. Lucas Giolito is #1, Trea Turner is #2, Victor Robles is #3… Koda Glover is #19, Andrew Lee is #20.
The secondary focus is on improvement by letter grade, which you can see by the color red. The opposite, i.e. folks who have dropped a notch, are in blue.
Top 20 guys from 2015 are in bold. Guys who played their way onto the list are in italics. Draft picks from last June are in green.
The last category is interesting because there are two ways of looking at it: (1) the system was so weak that the new talent simply looks better in comparison (2) the Nats drafted really well. I’ll leave that up to the draft gurus to debate in the comments, but I think I have to lean towards the latter when I look back at previous iterations of this post and realize there’s never been this many just-drafted picks to make the Top 20 (hence the Kermitization 😉
It’s also interesting that Sickels is outlining the guys that are straddling two grades, which he also points out with nos. 11-7 (the C+ guys and Raudy Read):
Significant cut-off here: slots 11-17 could be ordered in many different ways with valid logic. Look at this like tiers.
Other thoughts…
…Clearly Sickels is higher on Cole than others, especially when you consider that he’s ranked him above Fedde. His comp is to Jake Odorizzi in terms of prospect fatigue.
…Speaking of comps, let the hype begin if Reynaldo Lopez is likened to Luis Severino.
…Andrew Lee appears to be his next Austin Voth: A sleeper pick that becomes a workhorse with stuff that’s neither exceptional nor weak.
As always, I encourage folks to click through to the first link above and read John’s comments on each player. Then discuss in the comments (a.k.a. the opposite of MASN).
I heard Giolito will be downgraded to a B+ for spending time on baking with Kieboom that is all kinds of fail.
That is a hilarious story. At least the kid showed determination! (For those who haven’t seen it, look up Chelsea’s story on the WaPo site.)
It clearly also accounts for why Kieboom was not ranked at all!
“Baking with Kieboom” just doesn’t have a good ring to it, does it? So much for the catcher looking out for his pitcher!
Sickels is still on board with Lopez (agreeing with Luke’s assessment) and with Cole, and has them ahead of Fedde, which most others aren’t doing. I have noted my concerns about Fedde, so I tend to agree. We’ll see how things shake out for him this season.
The same could be said for the 2015 draft picks as well. I would have Lee and Glover ahead of Wiseman and Schrock, but I don’t disagree with them all being on the list. (Few other lists are including Schrock, and some have omitted Lee.)
Other than Robles and Franco, Sickels has really avoided most of the really young guys. He does have several of them in the “Others of Note.”
Maybe I’m missing something, but I’m not that excited about Bautista. Meanwhile, what does Mejia have to do to get any love? (Well, besides take a couple of walks . . .)
The Nats’ early camp roster:
http://www.masnsports.com/byron-kerr/2016/02/nationals-set-early-camp-roster-for-prospects-first-game-march-14.html
Luke may break these out more at some point.
Sickels said there were three sleepers, and I saw the label for Watson and Hearns. Anyone know the third?
Forgetting numerical grades and just reviewing the various write ups, this seems to be among the better years as far as third party appraisals of their system. I’m a bit surprised (pleasantly) by how well the position players are being received. Part of that is due to how well several guys from last year’s draft are being received. The other is that it’s hard to follow the kids below Potomac, which means that I haven’t completely gotten familiar with many of the kids out of the Latin program yet.
Does anyone think that the drafts are getting better now since Clark left? I had thought he was a strong FO guy but it. Does seem like the last couple of years have reversed a trend of weak drafts.
I agree with the general pleasant surprise that outside evaluators think well of the positional prospects. I’m not quite sure I agree, but it’s good to hear. Right now, Turner is the only positional player on the cusp of being an MLB starter, and perhaps Difo could be a reserve if called upon. Unless miraculous things happen with someone like Goodwin or Skole, the rest are probably a couple of years away, or more, with several unknowns in between. Of course if Robles hits 15+ HRs this year, showing some power potential, he’s going to rocket to the top of a lot of charts.
Meanwhile, it’s curious how some arms are being ignored or devalued on the lists, particularly guys like Simms and Williams who don’t throw 98. We’ll see.
What I find interesting is no Drew Ward or Jackson Reetz. Apparently, even their young ages wasn’t able to save them from the effects of such an awful 2015.
Jackson Reetz has yet to prove he can hit at any level. The jury is still out on Drew Ward. Their age is the best thing they have going for them
Ugh. The Billy Rowell defense…
I tend to believe Cole will prove better than Fedde and thank goodness for he, Lopez, Ross, and Giolito. The Nats seem covered as far as starters are concerned. BP development has some decent possibilities too.
‘Overall I like this system. There isn’t quite enough impact at the top to rank with the elite, but there seems to be a lot of mid-level depth and lower-level guys who could improve dramatically with more experience.”
I don’t know about Luke but this is something I never expected to see … especially given the effect the Latin players have had. Rizzo should get some decent at-a-boy kudos.