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2016 Spring Training Thoughts

Bulldog-Hates-SnowIt’s hard to imagine with the ice and snow we’ve been having lately, but pitchers and catchers do report to Viera on Friday. Allegedly.

And, according to some dispatches, it’s the last one at Space Coast stadium. So we’ve got one more year of beat writers bitching about Panera.

Yesterday, we got the news as to who the non-roster invites will be, though more than a few outlets chose to highlight Lucas Giolito.

While it would be quite a story if Giolito were to break camp with the big club, what may be more likely is top position prospect Trea Turner being handed the starting shortstop job. Of course, the presence of multiple veteran options gives cover to the Nationals if they decide to send one or both back to the minors to delay the arbitration clock for more seasoning.

Aside from those two, it would appear that it’s the usual drama for prospects/minor-leaguers: Who, if anyone, might surprise us and become the 12th man in the ‘pen or the last bat off the bench? Injuries forced an awful lot of promotions last year, but if everyone’s healthy, then could the opposite occur? Could we see Michael Taylor or Matt den Dekker sent down “so they can play everyday?”

I’ll freely admit that spring training coverage on this site is self-serving and specious, at least now that the Nationals are playoff contenders. It’s an excuse to get back into the habit of writing every morning in preparation for the minors’ regular season, which begins in (ugh) seven weeks.

And with that, I have to call it a day and get to work…

18 Commments

  1. We certainly look forward to your daily reports.

    I hope that Tyler Moore has an outstanding spring, and that Rizzo uses this as a reason to trade him before the season starts. I still don’t understand the fascination, and he would likely get more playing time on another team.

  2. Confounding the discussion of whether Tyler Moore should remain on the roster, the Nats just signed Neftali Soto. The backup options at first base in DC and Syracuse keep expanding.

  3. Moore and Tyler Jordan were two players I had hoped would be liberated by trades to places where they might have more of a chance to play. There’s still a chance that might happen in the spring, but less so. And yes, the Nats seem to have brought in a truckload of guys to challenge Moore for the “RH bat” slot.

    The bench construction of the big club will be interesting. Lobaton (SH), Robinson (LH), and Drew (LH) would seem to be locks. They don’t have to carry a 3B backup because Murphy can play there, and Zimmerman could in a pinch. Robinson is the 1B backup and can at least stand in the OF. He’s not really a true OF reserve, though; neither is Moore.

    The first big question will be what to do with Taylor. I think I’ve come around to the opinion that he’d be better off staying with the big club than playing every day in Syracuse. He’s the best defensive OF the Nats have, plus they really need to keep looking at him at the MLB level to decide whether he has an everyday future for them. So I’d make Taylor the 4th OF and look for him to somewhat platoon with Revere in CF.

    The fifth slot on the bench is wide open and really doesn’t have to be an INF or OF because of the versatility of Drew and Robinson. I doubt they would go with another utility guy like Difo, but it’s possible. den Dekker made me a fan with how well he hit the ball down the stretch last year after his return from Syracuse. I’m not sure they would keep both den Dekker and Taylor, though, and my guess is that they’ll want another RH bat. That would seem to make the chief competitors Moore, the ancient Reed Johnson, and former Baker player Heisy. Frankly, I don’t like any of those options. If it were me, I’d keep den Dekker over all of them, but I doubt that will happen. I think either den Dekker or Taylor will end up back in Syracuse, a fate neither deserves.

    All of this is out the window if Turner somehow wins the starting SS job. Espinosa would be the 5th guy on the bench, with a SH bat. Because of Turner’s need for ABs and to recoop service time, I can’t see him beginning the season on the big club bench. He’s either starting or in Syracuse. I do think he’ll get the call at some point, though, at which time the bench will shuffle.

    1. Agree with a lot here.
      A couple of things about Taylor…… spectaculer defense and he was 8th in the league batting with RISP last year.
      denDekker hit at a .960+ OPS the last two months when he started to play regularly.
      At this point, Werth is the 4th or 5th best outfielder for the Nats. It’s reality.

    2. It’s time to end the Tyler Moore Experiment. We have have 4 years of data to prove that he’s a very bad player. He was supposed to be a power bat off the bench, but that’s never developed. His .173 ISO is inflated by his flukey 2012 season. In the past 3 years, it’s actually .146. That’s the same power as Wilmer Flores (.145) and Jose Altuve (.146) — both middle infielders.

      He’s also shown a complete inability to get on base in any form. A career .281 OBP is pathetic.

      Add all that to his defensive liability in the outfield and at first, and it all amounts to a pretty poor bench option. Over the past 3 seasons, Moore has been one of the 10 worst players in baseball (according to WAR).

      I’d be amazed in Rizzo could get any value in return, but it’s the best for both parties (Moore and the Nats) if they parted ways. Hopefully Moore can find some regular playing time on a team like the Phillies, Rockies or Brewers, who need a stop-gap 1B.

  4. Don’t forget about the Nats’ non-roster invitees:

    – Brendan Ryan
    – Chris Heisey
    – Tony Campana
    – Reed Johnson
    – Logan Schafer

    Wouldn’t be shocked if one of them made the team out of Spring Training. Ryan’s only shot would appear to be an injury to Drew or Espinosa, but he is an elite defensive player.

    Heisey played for Dusty in Cincy, and does have some pop from the right-side. Reed Johnson made the team out of Spring Training, is a vet (which Dusty likes), and is a decent pinch hitter. Schafer seems like a longshot as DenDekker is a better left-handed option off the bench.

    Agree that barring a trade Lobaton, Robinson and Drew are locks. I think Taylor likely makes the team as he the best defensive outfielder on the roster, he can run (so he has value as a pinch hitter), he has the most power of any reserve, and he was 4th on the team in RBI last year. With that said, if he struggles in the Spring, I could see the Nats going with Heisey and/or Reed Johnson to let Taylor play every day. I would rate Taylor’s chances at making the team out of Spring training at 70%.

    At this point, my best guess for the Nats bench coming out of ST would be:

    – Lobaton
    – Drew
    – Robinson
    – Taylor
    – Reed Johnson or den Dekker

    Then again, probably dumb to assume no injuries as last year, Span, Werth and Rendon didn’t make it out of Spring Training healthy. So, anyone at Spring Training could potentially make the opening day roster.

    With that said, the Nats clearly made some moves to extend arbitration/FA eligibility for certain players. To that end, I don’t think that Turner, Difo, Giolito play with the big club before June (again barring a rash of injuries).

    Agree with the thoughts on Tyler Moore. Always liked his demeanor and personality (and still think he has potential to have a Steve Pearce in 2014 type of season on an AL team if he gets significant playing time, but Moore is just a bad fit on a team that already has too many right-handed hitters that strikeout too much, play bad defense and can’t run. Would be shocked if he was still in the organization by middle of April (and don’t understand why the Nats resigned him and why he came back).

    1. Injuries? We’re not allowed to use the “i” word! Everyone is going to be perfectly healthy this season! And if you believe that, I’ve got a soon-to-be empty stadium in Viera I’d like to interest you in for next spring . . .

      As for who might surprise from among the Nat minor leaguers, Skole would appear to have a similar player ahead of him in Robinson, while Goodwin is staring up at Taylor and den Dekker, not to mention the others just chronicled. Bostick is behind Turner and Difo in the pecking order, and neither of those guys may break camp with the big club.

      Barring injuries (oops, can’t mention those), there’s not much of an opening among the hurlers, either. Treinen would appear to be the last guy on the fence, with Martin and Solis probably back in Syracuse. Of course this time last year, it would have been hard to predict Martin and Solis getting their cups of coffee, not to mention de los Santos, or that Rivero would been seen as an important piece for the bullpen going forward.

      If you’re looking for this year’s de los Santos, I would guess it is Glover, a guy with a chance to move up fast from the low minors. The comp for Rivero might be Lopez if they give up on him as a starter (which I hope they don’t do). If Andrew Lee goes back to the bullpen, he could have a streamlined shot similar to Glover.

      I have no idea what the pecking order will be for starters to be called from the minors. After all, I wouldn’t have had Joe Ross in the top 10 on that list this time in ’15. I would guess that it’s Giolito, Cole, and Voth, although if it’s just a shuttle situation, it might be Jordan. I’m really surprised that at least one from among Jordan, Cole, and Voth hasn’t been traded.

      Last but not least, Bryce has made it clear that he REALLY wants to play with his big bro. Would there be 40-man room by Sept. for a cameo by Bryan?

      1. Agree KG on Glover but Suero was the eye
        Brow raiser reading the invite list for first time
        Walking my dog who has more catch fly skills
        Rizzo has over looked. Lol!

      2. Last year’s draft had a crystal clear
        Intension : stiumulate bullpen with
        Young blood on fast track expectation .

  8. Luke. Zach Cox not posted on board
    Harrisburg heavy in lineup ?

    Who agrees with Carey rises ahead of Robles
    In each Robles promotion ??

  9. What I find somewhat interesting about the top dozen Nat prospects, is that they have a full baseball team minus a first baseman. I’m not including the bullpen, obviously. Five starting pitchers, a catcher,a middle infield, a third baseman and exactly three outfielders all capable of playing all three positions. Cool!

  10. Uh dude? Sorry but there is NO WAY INOYE Turner is handed the starting shortstop job. Sometimes I wonder? Sigh ..

  11. To what or to whom are you referring, Peric. If it is me it makes no sense. I was only and obviously talking about prospects, the top twelve a la Baseball America. As well, I’ve never suggested Turner would go north with the team. Sometimes I wonder … Sigh.
    If it’s not my post you are referring to and I don’t see any other possibilities, then I apologize in advance, dude.

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