Vote For Your Favorite Arms
With the winter meetings over, a “meh” Rule 5 draft (unless you dig de facto FA signings), and a trade not with the A’s, we shift to the follow-up to the favorite Nats bats: The favorite Nats arms.
As in previous polls, send your Top 10 list to enfieldmass-top10arms[at]yahoo[dot]com (link will open your preferred email client) or post them in the comments.
As we just did, I’ll tally the votes, weighting them in reverse order (#1 = 10 points, #2 = 9 points… #9 = 2 points, #10 = 1 point) and then post the results along with the requisite comments and/or snark.
Just a reminder: Joe Ross has exhausted his rookie status is therefore no longer a prospect. Likewise for newly acquired Trevor Gott. Folks with a southpaw fetish can vote for both Sammy Solis and Matt Grace, but both will enter 2016 at the age of 27 and wouldn’t be considered a prospect in most organizations.
It pains me to write that, but I’ve been doing this long enough to know that pitchers often elicit emotions that cloud rational judgment. I’ll leave it at that rather than rant about recent examples or even old ones (*cough* Chad Cordero *cough*).
As always, feel free to discuss in the comments… but keep it civil and focused on what they do on the mound. The players, their friends and families, and their agents are reading along, too.
1) Giolito
2) Fedde
3) Lopez
4) Cole
5) Voth
6) Rivera
7) Simms
8) Bacus
9) A Williams
10) Baez
Honorable Mention: Solis, who I haven’t given up hope on…
Rivera has exhausted his rookie status too.
I think he means Mariano Rivera not Rivero.
Speaking of Son of Sandman, Byron Kerr has a piece posted on him, but it doesn’t address the biggest question I have: whether they’ll give him another chance at being a starter next year. As I and others speculated here, the article says that they moved him to the ‘pen last season mainly because of the long year/college season. I still hope that he can develop into a Voth-type starter.
Sorry, somehow I forgot all about Mariano Rivera.
Yes, Little Mo. And yes, I think he will be given another chance to start next year. He pitched a lot last year and I think he may have been out of gas a bit. He sure does have a pedigree…
So did Shane McCatty
To be fair to Shane, his father was a pretty lousy pitcher too.
Push Austen Williams higher .
Meanwhile a summer of some arms to
Emerge out of the proverbial wood. Shed.
Plus we will know come june first week
What arms are added out of draft .
1. Giolito
2. Lopez
3. Fedde
4. Voth
5. Cole
6. A. Williams
7. Mapes
8. Valdez
9. de los Santos
10. N. Lee
Honorable Mention: Baez, Solis, A. Lee, Glover, T. Watson, Simms, Grace, Harper
First 6 are pretty good, after that it’s anybody’s guess.
James. I like the Mapes addition in the list .
We should all look forward to second yet full
Campaign for NCAA june draftees Hearn ,
Borne Guilibeau, Crownover.
Mooney full season , Benincasa in rehab
Campaign.
Several of the Latin kids should step forward
In the lower levels
1. Giolito
2. Lopez
3. Cole
4. Voth
5. Fedde
6. A. Williams
7. Glover
8 .Simms
9. Watson
10. A. Lee
Man, our pitching is even shallower than our bats…
Will, you’re an astute commenter, so what you said here surprises me. I’ve got a list of about 30 pitchers, all of whom have at least a chance of making the majors. There probably aren’t half that number of hitters in the organization who have that shot.
The only hitter I’m reasonably sure will be an MLB regular is Turner. To be fair, the only pitcher who seems to be a lock as a regular is Giolito, but there are plenty of others who will have a shot and will at least get close. I’m much more concerned about the lack of bats than I am arms. Certainly there were some frustrations with some of the top pitching prospects this year, as Cole, Jordan, Hill, Grace, and Solis all look perilously close to stalling out at the mythical AAAA level. Lower down, Lopez and Fedde didn’t electrify the world as expected. At the same time, the 2015 draft produced three guys you have ranked, as well as Brinley and a truckload of lefties.
We’ll see. I’m sure you’ve got some rational for your comment, and I’d like to hear it. As for your list, I think mine is going to show a lot of agreement.
Err, “rationale.” But I’m sure it was rational as well.
First, I think pitchers (outside of “can’t miss” status studs like Giolito) are far less projectable than batters. There’s also a much higher likelihood of ending a career due to injury which there isn’t for batters. This explains my skepticism towards Watson and, to a lesser extent, Lee.
Second, I’m loathe to ever name relief pitchers as prospects and actively avoided doing so as much as possible. Your best relief pitcher will only pitch about 80 IP per season (and even so, you have to be extremely careful with them), which means they’re involved in roughly 5% of the season. Hence my skepticism towards Glover, as well as Rivera and a few others I left off.
Third, I’m partial to strike-throwing pitchers that can strike guys out. Perhaps there’s an overvaluation of these types of players these days, but as we’ve seen most recently with Fister, these types of pitchers are not sustainable. As soon as his velocity dipped 1-2 MPH the wheels fell off. Comparatively, Gio’s FB has dropped at least 1 MPH since it’s peak a couple years ago, but his peripherals are good enough to sustain the dip, because he can strike guys out. Hence my skepticism towards Williams, Simms and recent worry about Cole, as well as the likes of Guilbeau, Bacus, Hill, etc.
Fourth, somewhat related to 3, I also dismiss pitchers with control problems. If a guy can’t consistently hit the strike zone, then what good is their 100 MPH fastball (I’m looking at you, HRod). This is why I left off the likes of Nick Lee, Robbie Dickey, Joan Baez,
Fifth, age. I always defer to players who succeed when they’re the youngest on the field, and give less value to the opposite. Hence why guys like Solis, Mapes, Grace, and to a lesser extent Fedde, this was less important this season, but I expect him to rise quickly next year.
I am being nitpicky with this criteria, but I found it much easier to assemble a list of batters. I think I named an extra 10 honorable mentions, but struggled to name 10 total pitchers. I’m having trouble seeing which unnamed pitchers could really jump onto the list with strong seasons. Mapes, Hearn, Crownover, maybe one or two more I’m forgetting. It just seems there’s a whole lot less projectable talent with our pitchers.
Good points, and I agree with most of them. My counter-argument would be more along the lines of despair for the bats than irrational exuberance for the arms. I see one fairly certain MLB regular among the bats: Turner. Robles and Franco are teenagers who haven’t even played a full season of pro ball, so it’s impossible to know with them. All the catchers look like backups at best. Perhaps Difo, Bostick, Mejia, and Schrock have outside shots at being something more than utility guys, but that seems to be their collective path. Ditto for Stevenson in the OF. Goodwin and Ward have the physical tools to be regulars, which is why they keep getting mentioned, despite their struggles. I would love for all these guys to prove me wrong, but I’m not holding my breath.
With the pitchers, I’d say you have one certain MLB starter in Giolito and several others with very good shots in Lopez, Fedde, Cole, and Voth. There are others with chances, but those are the more marquee names, and guys who have considerable trade value. Regardless of what we think about him, the Nats got a year and a half of Papelbon in exchange for a AA starter, one who would have ranked behind that quintet.
No time to continue, but I just see more potential upside with more of the pitchers than I do with the hitters. We’ll see. I think it’s fair to say that both sides of the equation could use an infusion of talent.
Yeah so Nate Karns ( a guy I also kept mentioning/pushing) was an older prospect who sure brought back a nice return … especially since many thought he’d be better at the back end of a bullpen … ~smiles~
On second glance, I’ve completely forgotten about our promising crop of pitchers in the DSL.
Pedro Avila and Francys Peguero should be mentioned. Avila, especially, should have had more consideration for the 10th spot.
Also, Jackson, good shout on Maximo Valerio. Another I overlooked.
One thing I have noticed from making these two lists is how empty the mid to upper minors are. Pretty much all the high upside prospects are at the lower minors, with a good bit at Auburn or Hagerstown. The shift to a bigger international front has had an effect on this, but the inability to get talent out of the draft is concerning.
I mostly agree if you’re just looking at the snapshot of the current situation. But there was also a lot of “graduation,” or near graduation, last year: Ross, Treinen, Rivero, Grace, Solis, Martin, Jordan, Cole, T. Hill, plus Pivetta traded from AA. (Hill really struggled in ’15 but looked very viable after ’14.) That’s a heck of a lot of MLB/AAAA talent for one “class.” Of this list, Cole is the only one I am still considering a “prospect,” although some of the others may see time in Syracuse.
Absolutely talent has come through the organization to help the Nats, which is why I’m not too concerned, but it does make me question for a second that other than Giolito, Kieboom is about all that we have left from the 2012 draft class, and the 2013 class could easily produce 0 major league players(although Ott was a piece in the Ross/Turner deal, and Voth, Ward, an Simms all have potential). Just the lack of production past the first round jumped out at me when I was going through the previous draft classes
With the pitchers, yeah, there have been some high-pick whiffs on guys like Johansen (still with the organization as far as I know), Purke (just signed with the White Sox), and Mooneyham (retired).
Todd Boss just did a pretty detailed look at the progress of all the Nat picks for the last four drafts or so on his site back in October (http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?m=201510).
Oof. Only 9 players from that draft still in the system, only 2 of whom look to still be useful. Not good.
And I’m not sure 2013 is looking any better.
The old azoom is: draft 20-23 every year to be
Lucky to find 2.
Scroll through the October section on Todd’s site to find reviews of the last four drafts. We debated in the comments just how many picks needed to pan out for a draft to be considered “good,” or “great,” and whether getting one star out of a draft and virtually nothing else was better than just getting a few role players.
When the Nats have had higher picks (including Giolito), they have nailed them (not counting Crow). You could quibble with a few others who could have been taken, but Strasburg, Storen, Harper, and Rendon have all panned out as above-average MLB players. Gioloto is still tracking to be on the same path. There are no slam dunks in this game (see Appel as a recent example), so there’s credit due for getting these right. Where the Nats have struggled, though, and where it has hurt the depth at the top of the system, is in the next tier, rounds 2-5 or so. Again, however, you could say “struggled compared to what?” and wonder if other teams have done that much better. I really don’t know.
Okay, here is my list:
1. Lucas Giolito
2. Austin Voth
3. A.J. Cole
4. Reynaldo Lopez
5. Erick Fedde
6. Austen Williams
7. Andrew Lee
8. Koda Glover
9. Taylor Hearn
10. John Simms
Once again, lots of question marks with Giolito the only real “can’t miss” prospect on the list. Here’s hoping the Nats end up with two additional decent starters among the combo of Voth, Cole, Lopez, Fedde and Williams and that Lee and Glover’s big arms are for real and they rise quickly through the system.
Here you go:
1. Giolito
2. Lopez
3. Voth
4. Cole
5. Fedde
6. Lee
7. Glover
8. Hearn
9. Simms
10. Williams
Even though he’s not eligible for the list, I’m high on Solis. He had the 5th best ERA on the Nats last year and 2015 was the first year he had been a reliever at any level. His 8.5 strikeout to walk ratio (excluding intentional bb’s that manager’s control) was 2nd best on Nats only behind Scherzer. I think he will be a solid long term addition to the pen.
1. Giolito
2. Lopez
3. Cole
4. Voth
5. Glover
6. A. Lee
7. Simms
8. Fedde
9. A. Williams
10. T. Watson
I rearranged the guys following Giolito several times. I ended up voting as much for potential as I did actual performance in ’15. If it had been performance alone, Lopez and Fedde in particular would have been farther down the list. I’m still not sold on Fedde. Perhaps he’ll come back stronger next year another year removed from TJ. Looks like I’m not the only one excited about Glover and A. Lee. Both were overpowering at Auburn and Hagerstown, something Fedde was not. If there’s a dark horse for someone to run through the minors to a bullpen role with the big club late in the season, I’d put a couple of bucks on Glover.
I’m sure Cole is wondering what his role is with the organization, as are we. It’s hard to believe that he won’t turn 24 until January; it seems like he has been around forever. It’s been four years since he was traded away in the Gio deal. I could see him as part of a trade this offseason, as I think both he and Jordan could be effective guys in the back end of rotations for several MLB teams. At the same time, Cole may be the next man up for the Nats more than Giolito is.
And Voth, Simms, and Williams just keep getting guys out. As for the 10th spot, I flipped through a lot of guys in that slot. Watson had the most impressive debut overall of all the many lefties drafted in ’15, so I gave him the nod.
I followed Luke’s lead of not really considering Grace and Solis “prospects,” but both are strong arms who will figure in the plans somewhere in ’16. Competent LH hurlers can stick around for a long, long time.
Crossed fingers advancement
For Weston Davis , Kyle Simmons Robbie
Dickey
Giolito, Fedde, Lopez, Cole, Voth, Williams, Glover, Valerio, Andrew Lee, Solis
Giolito
Solis
Fedde
Voth
Cole
Lopez
Simms
Estevez
de Los Santos
Turnbull
#corrected handle.
Giolito
Solis
Fedde
Voth
Cole
Lopez
Simms
Estevez
de Los Santos
Turnbull
Is there another Turnbull in the Nats system besides Kylin?
I’d be very interesting to learn why you think Turnbull, who’s 26, never pitched above A ball nor even pitched last year, is a better prospect than literally anyone else in the Nats system right now.
I still like him. I see him as a sleeper kind of like Nate Karns except left-handed. Injury probably held him out last season so …
Emilio Estavez ?? Lol
Wirken for the weekend
TJ surgery still in recovery … just like Fedde. Why you voting for that TJ reject? 🙂
There is a big vacuum to fill with Nats Insider gone. MASN doesn’t quite fill the bill and this site while excellent is directed at prospects.
Not always.
Who thinks nats go for vet infield help??
And which candidates ??
Outfield add?
I thought they’d go strong for Heyward. Then? They went for Yelich. At this point I think it could be Chris Davis if he were willing to consider sharing first base and left field with Zimmerman and Werth. First base and left field could end up as a collaboration between multiple players.
Natsinsider went downhill rapidly. Byron Kerr fills in where this site leaves off as far as prospects. So, MASN does fill a legitimate hole in that vacuum with Byron, Chris and of course Pete Kerzel.
Matt Spann is a work horse