Offseason Update: Oct. 3, 2015
There’s still more than a week to go before the Arizona Fall League starts up, while the hot mess that is the 2015 Washington Nationals limps to a finish.
As much as I’d like to keep the focus on the minor-leaguers, times like these I understand why people want to discuss the parent club. It’s certainly better than in the days of the Nationals Farm Authority, where there was a sizable contingent of folks who only came to whine and campaign for replacements for the product in D.C. and bitch about the perceived lack of spending [Insert remark about Papelbon salary with rhetorical question here].
For what it’s worth, I too, worry that the proverbial window is closing and that Rizzo might not be able to trade his way out of “cleanse the palate” season (or three). But that’s as much as I think I should write about that; I’d like to shift back to why we’re here: to follow the paths of the future Nationals (and/or trade bait ;-)…
ORGANIZATIONAL AWARDS
Speaking of trade bait, shortly after last week’s post went to virtual press, the Nationals announced the 2015 Organizational Awards with Jose “Orange” Marmolejos-Diaz earning the Player of the Year, Austin Voth was tabbed as the Pitcher of the Year, and Austen Williams earned the third annual Bob Boone Award. For the folks not on the inside joke, take a look at that link and scroll down: Eight of the last 17 award winners have been traded.
BA TOP PROSPECT LISTS
As expected, no Nationals made the South Atlantic League Top 20 or were referenced in its “In A Box” feature. The home office in Durham, NC chose to do the Florida State League ahead of the Carolina League, so the adulation for Lucas Giolito will have to wait until next week.
TRANSACTION STUFF
As usual, it’s pretty quiet on this front: one pitcher re-signing (Justin Amlung) another getting cut loose (Manny Rodriguez). With the free agency period starting in roughly five weeks, we may see one or two more guys re-up rather than test the waters.
THE 2015 GCL NATIONALS
For the fifth time in the last six seasons, the G-Nats finished fourth with a 24-34 record. Like most of the affiliates, they had league-average pitching (4.00 R/G vs. 3.99) and were below-average offensively (3.59 R/G). Defensively, they were a shade better (.966FA vs. .964). This is where I also remind you to not get too excited or too depressed: short-season baseball = small sample size, not to mention the bevy of pitchers recuperating from Nationals elbow.
Without further ado…
| TOP 5 BATS | TOP 5 ARMS |
| 1. Victor Robles, CF, .358 GPA, 12SB in 23G | 1. Matt DeRosier, RHP, 1.29/2.21/0.90, 9.4 K/9 |
| 2. Telmito Agustin, LF, .278 GPA, .446 SLG% | 2. Joan Baez, RHP, 2.13/2.67/1.18, 6.6 H/9IP |
| 3. Anderson Franco, 3B, .259 GPA, 4HR in 43G | 3. Rocky Harmening, RHP, 2.86/3.26/1.14, 4:1 K:BB ratio |
| 4. Darryl Florentino, OF, .267 GPA, .329 BA | 4. Brayan Serrata, RHP, 1.80/3.26/1.35, converted from C |
| 5. Oliver Ortiz, 1B-OF, .226 GPA, .982 FA at 1B | 5. Maximo Valerio, RHP, 1.72/3.36/0.98, 88.8 LOB% |
There were three players that were statistically better than 19-y.o. Ortiz, who was repeating the level, but all three were significantly older (~22 y.o.) Thus, no honorable mentions. Three of the top five pitchers were also on a subsequent tour, but unlike the 2014 staff, they were at or below league-average in terms of FIP. Folks who are interested in seeing the entire team’s stats, should click here.
There is something inherently auspicious about Scherzer’s no hitter paralleling the gem Zimmerman ended last year with. The Nats have their ace and he had an off year overall, but there will be quite a life after Zimmerman.
Given the success of the draft this year, at least in financial management, it is worth checking out Todd Boss’ extended discussion on Nationals Arms Race on the QO. The second half of Desi and the uncommon qualities of Span lead us to again consider that three QOs bring three high draft picks. The bonus pool gets much higher, and as such the team will not only get higher caliber talent in the early rounds, but more money to play with if they learn from this year for more lower round high schoolers like Tyler Watson that they can lure away from school. So in a way, the picks may amount to 3+.
Fortunately, the end of the season has rewarded our continued hope, with glimmers of 2016 solutions in Den Dekker and his newfound power, Rivero and his responding at least this time around, Trea Turner, and Matt Scherzer, of course. Interesting that Roark will get the last start, as it actually makes the last game worth keeping an eye on.
The Braves moved unmoveable pieces and the Nats have so many potential pieces to move that whomever is perceived to be unmoveable will move on. That, of course, is how a GM proves his mettle. It’s going to be an exciting off season, and the challenge for Rizzo to turn a good, rickety, and underachieving team into a champion will, as per his modus operandi, yield its share of surprises.
With that said, the recent articles in the WaPo remind me of how Rizzo is boosted and indeed protected by Boswell and others there. He uses the media well, sometimes (like before the Gio trade) to goose the Lerners (and their “budget”). I think the same is going on now, only he is using the third party to concentrate the blame with Williams and the Lerners.
I’ve been right about a few things against the grain – Turner’s crest in the majors this year, OMD and Voth as MLPOYs, the talent housecleanings in the minors, late promotions. I was wrong when I thought they’d trade Escobar before the season. And so just to stir the pot, here are ten predictions I see and may be nuts about, but at least I go on a limb and come what may, to stir the pot…
1) Nats will fire Williams and replace him with a marquee, experienced manager. I have my eye on Ron Washington. Alternatively, they will restore credibility with clubhouse veterans and promote Randy Knorr, he of “The Nationals Way.”
2) Nats will acquire an emerging frontline lefthanded starter or top lefthanded starting prospect.
3) Nats will package Strasburg with one of their sell-low veterans to make a major acquisition and other necessary parts (Including Kimbrel?)
4) Nats will move Werth this winter and eat salary to do so
5) Nats will try to lock up Ramos long term
6) Nats will try to sign Desmond at a hometown discount and a shorter deal. Whether it happens or not is another story
7) Giolito will be in the mix for the 2016 rotation
8) Tyler Clippard will be a target
9) If they push to sign Harper to an extension, if will be early in the offseason and geared to impact free agency decisions of prospective targets (and overall franchise karma/season ticket sales)
10) Multiple trades for prospects to enhance system depth in the OF and early career power prospects
fore — 3 or 4 of your predictions qualify as pie-in-the-sky ideas. Somewhat like all those pundits who predicted Romney was going to win.
Werth’s not going anywhere, his no trade is blanket.
Severino can’t develop fast enough, the only thing is can the Nats wait for him to develop his hitting? He’s already the best defensive catcher the Nats have under contract.
Ramos can’t hit,can’t run when he is on base, and can’t catch throws from the outfield. Other than that he’s terrific.
On another topic, it’s a total disgrace that Severino & Difo have not received any playing time these last 10 games. Another front office fail. Stand up to MW, for &*%$ sake!
And most importantly, Luke, we know that’s not Spike but you’re developing quite a collection of non-Spike bulldog photos.
1. Giolitto will not be ready.
2. Ramos should not be locked up. He is not a good catcher (bad pitch caller. Too slow. Too many DP’s.
3. Who are you going to move Werth to?
4. I doubt if Desmond will come back and Nats won’t offer another deal.
5. I actually am thinking the same thing about Strasburg. Depends what they want and if San Diego or LA offers it..
6. I think Randy Knorr is the best choice. If not Bud Black.
Melvin Upton proved you can move anyone.
He didn’t have a blanket no trade clause.
I also raised a potential trade of Strasburg on Todd’s site. I’d phrase it as sign or trade, and signing is unlikely. I just think that they had a bad experience with key walk year guys this year – none of them played to their expectations, and it seemed to be a periodic distraction. I’d guess that they won’t be anxious to have another high profile one like Stras.
And I would love to see Werth traded. He is still useful, but needs to DH half the year and I’d like to see the Nats have a younger, more athletic player in left, preferably a LHB. Of course he can be traded, but I doubt the Nats would eat the money that they would need to in order to make it happen.
Lastly, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Desi return. I mean, I think its a 10-20% kind of thing, but he is one of the few FAs that I think genuinely likes the club, and the club likes him. If his asking price drops to 3/$45m, I do think the Nats bite and then who knows, maybe they flip Rendon for a big return (which I think he’d bring, even after a down year)
Oh yes – I can see Ben Zobrist here next year….
Mark – predictions are worth nothing if there is no risk involved. And I attracted my share of scorn on a few fronts and have lived to have a chuckle of being proven right when all is said and done. So we will see.
But as for my rationale: 1) I think Ramos is due for a bounce back season. And the team has to be founded on defense, and the pitchers trust him. I don’t believe in Severino. That’s why I am watching Kieboom in the AFL, because I think he has a higher ceiling. 2) Werth is an injury risk and even when healthy,a defensive liability. And sooner or later his age will catch up in a way that people can no longer blame injuries. I know he is a “team leader,” but you cannot lead a team performing marginally and he hosed the team in his shoulder injury last year. Then he did not deliver. He will not sit on the bench as a “fourth” OF. Whatever his trade clause, everyone has a price, and if he can extend his career in the AL playing DH, the team should eat coin to get lineup protection for Harper in LF and better defense, particularly if Taylor is the starter in CF.
Maybe I am wrong, but to win a championship, you have to be bold, and jettisoning Werth to me is a lower risk than getting rid of Ryan Zimmerman.
I’m in total agreement on Werth’s abilities at this point but he’s unmovable.
We’ll have to agree to disagree on Severino. He’s only 22, so I don’t want to hear about his ceiling. He’s already better defensively than Ramos.
I’d love it you’re right on Kieboom.
Turner will be a major upgrade on Desmond, although the Nats have butchered his service time.
It has always been my position that service time is overrrated in this changing game and the coming proliferation of Cuban and international talent.
It is more important to the Nats as a team competing for a championship to have replacements ready for all players. That means that when it is time to make long term free agency decisions, there should be a replacement player available for every starter if a team wants to compete year in and year out. And if a player is irreplaceable, you lock him up before the clock expires.
Turner’s major league exposure will help the team very much next year. He should have started more, but there are back stories here that we don’t know. I want Matt Williams fired as much as the next person, and that will happen as early as tomorrow, but apportioning blame to him as an explanation for everything that doesn’t make sense reminds me of the occasional law enforcement error assuming that a person who committed one crime necessarily committed another unsolved crime.
Difo broke a bone in his hand last night.
I also think the Turner at 2b and ongoing Desmond starts after elimination speaks to me that the Nats have not ruled Desmind out of the 2016 picture. Escobar is not pegged to be the replacement SS. But so amazing that Turner was part of the no hitter last night.
My favorite line on Turner was about a month ago Barry Svrluga of the Post said he had ‘are you kidding me?’ speed.
A prospective manager with both Turner and Taylor in the everyday lineup ought to be able to figure out how to make that a devastating weapon for this franchise. And when Difo makes the grade, so much the better. This boring team is that close to being fun to watch.
Time to talk of the future, but 1st a farewell to Manny Rodriguez. Signed for $115,000 out of tiny school in Florida in the 10th round in I think 2011. A longish backstory but just couldn’t break the injury bug. Wish him well.
It looks like the Nats in June will have at least 4 picks in the first 50. This is what the Rizzo does best; draft and develop. A chance to shore up the hitting side of the farm and pick some more Left Hand pitchers.
We’ll know by November 10th how many picks we’ll have so it won’t take long.
I have to take issue with the idea that Rizzo’s strength is in drafting. Other than the obvious picks of Strasburg, Harper and Rendon his drafting record has actually been pretty terrible. Taking Storen (as a relief pitcher) Number 10 overall is the worst example, but there have been way too many busts in the early rounds. To wit:
2009 – Kobernus (2), Holder (3), Morris (4), Pena (5)
2010 – Hague (3), Martinson (5). Jury still out on Solis (2) and Cole (4), but early returns are not good.
2011 – Goodwin (1s), Purke (3), Turnbull (4), Skole (5). Jury still out on Meyer (1), but early returns are not good.
2012 – Renda (2), Mooneyham (3), Miller (4), Kieboom (5).
2013 – Johansen (2), Ward (3).
2014 – Suarez (2 – didn’t sign), while Reetz (3), Dickey (4) and Van Orden (5) all had horrible 2015 seasons.
Worse yet Rizzo traded three of his best lower round draft picks in Karns, Ray and Burns and got exactly one good season from Doug Fister, a solid relief pitcher, a mediocre backup catcher and a mediocre middle reliever in return.
I’d take your analysis and come to probably the opposite conclusion.
Storen at #10 overall has delivered at, or above, expectations for a high first round pick.
2009 was a horrible year.
Solis and Cole have both turned into (at least) fringe major leaguers. For 2nd and 4th round draft picks, I think that qualifies as success as opposed to failure.
2011 – injuries, almost without exception.
2012 – Funny that you call Kieboom a bust. Most seem to think of him as a fringy prospect. (Who’s had a year long injury)
And there’s a number of lower round draft picks who have done well.
You seem to think that trading “best low round draft picks” is a failure – I’d argue the exact opposite.
It produced a 2.40, 200IP season from Doug Fister, for Robbie Ray. What a steal.
Burns turned into a season of Blevins. Again, I’d take that.
I think there’s valid criticisms of Rizzo – for having built such a “good character” clubhouse last year, he screwed up by trading for Pabelbon. The ‘pen this year was ravaged by injuries, but in retrospect, it was a high risk area without a suitable plan B. But his (or his team’s) scouting and drafting, IMO, both get pass marks.
All right–let’s look at it a different way. The 2011 draft was the last year in which teams could spend as much as they wanted on their draft picks. Knowing that they still needed a huge influx of talent, the Nats went for broke in drafting Rendon, Meyer, Goodwin and Purke–and paid them all as if they were top talents. It was the one time that Rizzo’s supposed drafting “genius” was not constrained by budget and signability concerns.
And yet Goodwin and Purke are already total busts and Meyer looks well on his way to joining them. No matter who is grading, a 25% success rate is a colossal fail.
Additionally, Robbie Ray had a relatively good season this year for a 23-year old (3.52 ERA, 119 Ks in 127.2 IPs). If he blossoms into a cheap, team controlled middle-of-the-order starter for the next few years the Fister trade will also look pretty bad.
Look up ‘glass half empty’ person in your dictionary and there will be a picture of. Kark K
Meyer wasn’our bust, we did quite well with him.
Fister was fabulous last year and would have been part of a great team if they had a serviceable manager.
The great John Schuerholtz once said you’ve got a great farm system if it produces 1 player a year. Mission accomplished.
Mark – with more draft picks come much more bonus pool. With that, if the financial team manages signings wisely, there is a far greater surplus from which to deal with on other picks past round ten. This year, they had enought o sign Schrock and Watson. With all of the extra picks, and the potential for extra cushion, the Nats can pluck a few high extra schoolers who were well regarded but seemingly headed for college.
Let’s hope they take advantage of the draft, and knowing their player’s signabilities, to really stock with both college and high school talent.
I don’t think it will happen and not saying I’d want it to. But a Strasburg trade to SD makes some sort of sense. The Ross brother and Kimbrel for Stras and Storen. I’m one of the few who still thinks Storen can still be an above average closer. Send Escobar as well for another good reliever. Trade him when his value is good. And please, Randy Knorr for manager. He has a lot of experience although granted not at the major league level. He knows the players and I get the sense that they like and respect him.
Although, almost everyone seemed to think that Davey and all his experience managed the Nats well. I wasn’t one of of those people. There are a lot of so called experienced managers out there who are not all that successful.
Yep, going to be an interesting off season.
Zobrist should be the key target in the FA offseason. Would cover for injuries to Werth plus can cover other injuries to Rendon and RZ. Werth is not going to be traded so we are stuck with him. SS to SD for Ross +++ assuming SS does not want to sign but we should do whatever we can to sign SS long term. We need two aces as Gio is not reliable enough. Ross and Roark for 4th and 5th while waiting for Giolito in 2017 as he will be max out in innings in 2016. Then there is the whole closer situation. They first have to decide whether they keep Pap or not, then more likely will trade Storen. If they trade both then Kimbrel would be the best target. RP will be interesting to follow this winter to say the least…
Papelbon has to go or Rizzo will lose all credibility with fans and Bryce Harper. I also think ownership will demand it. Papelbon is a cancer.
League top 20 updates:
Lucas Giolito was named #1 prospect in both the Carolina league and the Eastern league.
Reynaldo Lopez was #4 in the Carolina league. Nick Pivetta was #8 in the Carolina league (although he’s obviously now an alumni). And Austen Williams dropped in at #20 in the Carolina league.
Joe Ross was #8 prospect in the Eastern League.
Discuss……
Rey Lopez is the most intriguing for me.
Totally unhittable in Low A and then his off speed stuff was exposed this year and then he gradually learned his craft. Could he be the next big star in 2016? Possibly. The good news is he’s on his 1st elbow.
Worth considering:
Joe Ross had three starts in AA last year, nine this year and proved to be ready to start in the majors.
Lucas Giolito had eight starts in AA this year. In the same league, Giolito was noted to be the best prospect in his league, while Ross was #8, even after Ross performance at this higher level.
We will see whether Giolito is ready. But my point is, we will see. Especially, to paraphrase Mark L, because Giolito is on his second elbow. It’s the use that would hurt him, not the level.
Kiley McDaniel at FanGraphs, who is generally really well connected to MLB front offices and scouting departments, said that the Nats’ philosophy was that once a player hits AA, he’s in consideration for MLB playing time. I’d guess that Giolito doesn’t make the team straight out of ST, but he’d probably be the first option up in the minors were an injury to occur.
Pivetta may come back to a major league trajectory, but he had a poor run all the way around in AA, especially when you take out abgreat start he had against his former Harrisburg teammates.
Austen Williams does not get love on this board, but he rated 20 in his league, even without dominant numbers. The cupboard is still pretty full, and Lopez hits AA next year.
I may not be thrilled with the Nats’ minor league prospects, but I am still high on AJ Cole. His last six starts of the year he really put it together like a player aiming for the next step. A little offseason refinement and rest and he should be fun to watch in the spring. And yes, he is on his first elbow but 23 and already having tasted the bigs. Either they believe in him or they don’t. But they should.
Taylor Jordan has vanished in the same way as his rookie status. He’s never been able to seize a starting slot. But he is coming off an impressive rebound year. I think he is headed out the door in a trade package, especially with Giolito and Voth poised for the AAA rotation.
Is Treinen going to stay in the bullpen? Or is that a coversation we should entertain, with the prospect of a makeover that requires the Nats to trade Strasburg to package the untradeables out of town?
I can’t argue with your characterization of Jordan, but I’d note that he has never had a stretch in MLB where he pitched on regular rest. His repertoire is such that he needs to be throwing regularly, and it seemed like each time he made a spot start, it was on 7-8 days rest. Nevertheless, he’ll be 27 next year and I think he has to be traded. I’ll bet that if he goes somewhere that uses him regularly (and he stays healthy, no small thing), he’ll be a 2-3 WAR pitcher for a few years. Maybe they can trade him to MIL for a reliever.
I find myself agreeing with everything fore says here.
I especially am excited to see what A. J. Cole does in the spring. He was not ready when brought up earlier in the year but honed his craft and is much better now.
Trienen’s ceiling is much higher as a starter. Needs at least 3 months in Syracuse next year.
If you know what’s going on with Taylor Jordan, you’re smarter than me.
Interesting point, Wally, re: rest. A closer look at his starts reveal a few really bad outings, but also a few in which he kept it together for nine innings. He needs a major league team with good infield defense, that’s for sure. But he is a tough minded player. I have not given up on him, but he may be one of those players who belongs in a bigger package because if he des not break through this year, he may go the way of Taylor Hill.
A few other points on minor league starting pitchers:
1) Given the flux of AAA talent and the uncertainty of Giolito’s destination, I do hope they resign Espino and Bleier. Both players have shown upward trajectory, and the system is low on lefty starting depth.
2) Ryan Sullivan at Nats GM had a great writeup on Tyler Mapes. A very late round draft pick, and if the Nats clean out underperforming players, there’s no reason not to consider him for the AA rotation. A guy to root for! Also wonder whether Austen Williams gets the bump to AA after only 11 A+ starts.
3) For those on the board who have watched Drew vanOrden, and his decline last year, I wonder whether he is better suited as a starter or reliever? He started so promising.
4) Also interested in Luke’s take on Phillips Valdez as a return to the rotation in 2016 in A+. The whole A+ rotation is a mystery – does Fedde get the bump to Potomac already? That seems like a reasonable move for a college product. How about Andrew Lee (after 5 Hagerstown starts)? Does Ian Dickson get another chance after an offseason to recover? Connor Bach gets a bump, if he stays in the rotation – he is a lefty, is big, but sure does walk a lot of guys. What kind of shape is Hector Silvestre in?
5) The three (or four?) 2015 college draft lefties look to show up in Hagerstown. Crownover, Hearn, Guilbeau (Borne?) And then, another year, another year of reading Jeffrey Rodriguez hype. Will Maximo Valerio get a chance to break through?
Depth notwithstanding, there is room for pitcher prospects to step up and stand out at the lower levels to be sure.
Folks might not recall this but in mid-July the P-Nats had more starters than relievers and it seemed to me that who was placed where had very little to do with performance and very much to do with what the organization wanted to see (or look for) in the long term. This is always the most maddening thing about following minor-leaguers because you’ll see some guys trotted out time and time again and get beaten on like a narc at a biker rally and wonder why they keep getting chances while others languish. Valdez had seemingly adjusted to the league when he was taken out of the rotation, which leads to me believe that his “demotion” was a matter of the Nats wanting to use another pitcher in that role.
Thanks Luke.
Luke – Interesting comment on the glut of arms. There may be something similar in 2016 as they’ve got a lot of guys at Hagerstown and Auburn who need to go somewhere. Yes, I think Austen Williams gets kicked to Harrisburg, in part because of the glut. Fedde will probably get the “social promotion” to Potomac as well, likely following XST. But based on their short samples at Hagerstown, Lee was a lot more impressive than Fedde. Neither had very long at Hagerstown. I’m still not convinced about the hype on Fedde.
I would like to see Valdez get another shot at starting, which would probably mean starting off at Potomac again for him. I would also like to see Rivera get another chance at starting, when he’s not coming off a long college season. That would probably mean repeating Auburn for him, though. I’m sure they would prefer that a 4th-round pick remain a starter if possible.
With the big club’s need for relievers, I would think the Nats will give Glover every chance to continue his rapid rise, probably starting him at Potomac.
My other thought with so many arms is that it’s time to make some choices and trade from this strength. I thought Taylors Jordan and Hill should have been traded last offseason, when they both had good value. Hill has almost none now. Jordan still has some, but less. I don’t think he’s ever going to be a full-time starter in DC. I’m on the fence on Cole, but if the team got a good offer for him, I think he could be on the market as well. I think Voth could be getting a big-league look in 2016 . . . somewhere. He’s been great at getting people out, but I’ve always had the nagging feeling that he doesn’t throw hard enough for what the Nats like to see. They’ll get offers for him.
So appreciate the Byron Kerr column this AM on Billy Gardner. Minor league success, and with with Expos pedigree in his father. Good relationships with a number of the players already on the roster, knows the organization. I did suggest him awhile back, though there is another argument to be made for his continued minor league tenure.
Gardner, like Menhart and Spin Williams, are performing a valuable function in the minor leagues and hope they continue. There may be a lot of talented lifers out there, but they are not so readily replaceable. And the Nats do have some people in the minors they need replaced, because player development stalled for too many this year.
I would imagine LeCroy, Henley, and Knorr would have been offered positions within the organization.
Bostick is replacing Difo in Arizona. Turner will be on the taxi squad. (How many different places has he played this season?) Tripp Keister, the Potomac skipper, is managing the AFL team. Salt River plays its first game on Tuesday.
Now the word is that Turner isn’t going to AZ after all. I thought that sounded like a bit much for him after a whirlwind season.