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The BA Prospect Handbook, Part Two

Picking up where we left off, here are Washington’s nos. 16 through 31 in the 2015 Baseball America Prospect Handbook:

16. Taylor Hill 21. Spencer Kieboom 26. Drew Vettleson
17. Jake Johansen (8) 22. Raudy Read 27. Hector Silvestre
18. Felipe Rivero 23. Matt Grace 28. John Simms
19. Jefry Rodriguez (21) 24. Matt Skole (4) 29. Robbie Dickey
20. Rafael Bautista (28) 25. Victor Robles 30. Nick Lee (26)
31. Wander Suero


One of the things that struck me was how some of the prospects remained on the list despite injuries and/or poor performance, which may be acceptable for a younger player, but not so much for the older player. Yes, the Nationals skew older because they draft older, but it sometimes feels like incumbency (or dexterity) is given far too much credence.

Almost half of the 2015 list was not on the 2014 list, which is not unusual given the nature of the beast. Let’s take a look at how the newcomers break down:

2014 Draft — Erick Fedde (4), Jakson Reetz (14), Robbie Dickey (29)

2013 Draft — John Simms (28)

2012 Draft — Spencer Kieboom (21)

2011 Draft — Taylor Hill (16)

2010 Draft — Matt Grace (23)

Int’l Free Agent — Reynaldo Lopez (3), Wilmer Difo (7), Raudy Read (22), Victor Robles (25), Hector Silvestre (27)

Trade — Felipe Rivero (18), Drew Vettleson (26)

As alluded yesterday, there seem to be some returns coming out of the Dominican Republic five years past the “Dark Times of 2009,” with five of the newcomers and nine overall signed by the Nationals from the Caribbean nation, all since 2010. That may not be enough to satisfy the tastes of the folks who want Puig-like spending, but perhaps aren’t aware of the gamble that entails (3rd graf).

BA’s pandering to fantasy baseball fans three-year projection is back, but before I reveal it, a reminder of what BA projected in 2012* about the 2015 Washington lineup:
* The 2012 book went to press before the Gio Gonzalez trade; originally the nos. 3-5 pitchers were Brad Peacock, A.J. Cole, and Matt Purke.
C – Wilson Ramos
1B – Michael Morse
2B – Anthony Rendon
SS – Danny Espinosa
3B – Ryan Zimmerman
LF – Jayson Werth
CF – Brian Goodwin
RF – Bryce Harper
#1P – Stephen Strasburg
#2P – Jordan Zimmermann
#3P – Gio Gonzalez
#4P – Matt Purke
#5P – Sammy Solis
CL – Drew Storen

And what we could see in 2018 (pay no attention to injuries, trades, or free agency):

C – Wilson Ramos
1B – Ryan Zimmerman
2B – Tony Renda
SS – Ian Desmond
3B – Anthony Rendon
LF – Steven Souza** Brian Goodwin
CF – Michael Taylor
RF – Bryce Harper
#1P – Stephen Strasburg
#2P – Jordan Zimmermann
#3P – Lucas Giolito
#4P – Doug Fister
#5P – Gio Gonzalez
CL – Reynaldo Lopez
** Same logic applied as in 2012 edits: Goodwin selected because he was the next-highest-rated OF

12 Commments

  1. I’m starting to guess that Goodwin never sees the Major Leagues. I hope I am wrong. I think I would be happy with that 2018 pitching staff, with Scherzer replacing either Fister or Gio, but I really don’t expect we will have both Zimmermann and Strasburg then.

    1. The Nats aggressively pushed Goodwin to AA (skipping Potomac) during first pro season. He didn’t do well that year at AA but adjusted in his second season. Here’s hoping he is healthy and can make a similar adjustment during his second season at AAA. He’s a great athlete who gets on base well. Like Taylor, he strikes out too much. Unlike Taylor, he has yet to really show the power he’s projected to have. If Taylor ends up in CF in DC, Goodwin will have to show power to play a corner OF spot.

      My guess, based on a Magic 8 Ball about as cloudy as the one BA is using, is that Goodwin will make the majors but will be the type of guy who can get 200-300 ABs a season, but not a regular, except maybe for a second-division team. I hope he proves me wrong!

      1. Agreed on that assessment of Goodwin. He looks like the type of player that teams would sign for that Nate McLouth type role. 4th outfielder with speed who can fill in at all 3 positions and sometimes hit a long ball for you. I still think he may breakout this year much as Taylor did last year.

        1. One more Goodwin note. People seem to miss that despite his struggles and injuries last year he carried a .342 OBP. It wasn’t all bad for him last season. You bring his batting average up from .219. Let’s also not forget that he will play ALL of next season at age 24 so he isn’t really long in the tooth prospect wise.

          1. And that OBP from the left side might just be enough to get him a brief beginning of the season rehearsal stint in the majors replacing Jayson Werth. Carp has NO value trade wise but Goodwin might be able to generate some with some reasonable success in the majors? See Steven Souza as an example.

          2. I don’t see them promoting Goodwin this year. Showcasing players for trade isn’t on the agenda for this last year of the homegrown window club. Goodwin probably plays all year for the Chiefs, but hopefully this year he shows he’s worthy of a roster expansion call up and can show off his OBP and defense to suitors. Harper, Taylor and Werth for 2016-’17 has me hoping Goodwin can earn his way into a system replenishing deal for depth at a position of greater need, such as 1B, catcher, or MI.

  3. Interesting that my guy Nick Lee is just a few numbers
    Behind Silvestre. Just proves you need a Lee along the
    Potomac not to mention lefty depth.
    I am not giving up on Goodwin since depth is key to any
    Sustained winning extension .
    Number 50 in viera. Time to watch the kids in the B fields
    Even if big club in DC for exhibition !

    1. Jeff are you alluding to the man the fine city of Leesburg is named after? Always torn on Robert E. Lee. On the one hand, the man wanted my people enslaved, and I don’t tolerate that. On the other hand, I am a student of history, and I honor excellence. But perhaps you are referring to another Lee and merely like a certain brand of dungarees!

  4. Interesting that neither players who the Nats received in the Detwiler trade even made the top 30. I thought Bostick would have. I’ve read that Kieboom is a good defensive backstop. And he certainly appears to be a good offensive player. Because of injury he’s a little old for his level, but I would have thought a little more love than 21st.

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