NationalsProspects.com

Minorleagueball.com’s Top 20 Nats Prospects

Yesterday, John Sickels’s protege Nick Melotte released his Top 20 Nationals Prospects.

Melotte does the star system — 2.5 to 5, which roughly equates to Sickels’s C to A rating, with a 2.5-star player being an organizational guy and an five-star being a future superstar. The hyperlinked article explains the gradations before getting into the list.

As I’ve done the past few years, I’ll break it down by the star (letter) system while noting the players who have improved (by grade, not numerical rank), declined, and the newcomers. It’s not a perfect translation — Melotte may have been higher/lower on a Prospect A than Sickels was in the first place, so he may not have actually improved/declined — but it’s what we have to work with.

★★★★★ Lucas Giolito
★★★★½ Michael Taylor, Reynaldo Lopez
★★★★ Trea Turner^, A.J. Cole, Erick Fedde+, Joe Ross^, Drew Ward, Austin Voth, Wilmer Difo, Jackson Reetz+
★★★½ Rafael Bautista, Tony Renda, Taylor Hill, Raudy Read, Felipe Rivero, Chris Bostick^, Robbie Dickey+, Abel De Los Santos^
★★★ Gilberto Mendez
Honorable mentions Derek Self, Brian Goodwin, Pedro Severino, Spencer Kieboom, Anderson Franco, John Simms, Steven Fuentes, Neil Holland

+ Newcomer by draft ^ Newcomer by trade

Now for some quick thoughts…

…There are only seven holdovers (bolded) from the 2014 list, and while we can’t assume the honorable mentions are nos. 21-28, it’s telling that of the 15 eligibles (four were traded, one graduated to MLB), just eight remain in the “Top 28.”

…According to the article, the honorable mentions are all three-star players; I separated from Mendez to make it easier for the list-obsessed folks to figure out who was #20 😉

…Just five guys played their way onto the list; the other eight were either traded for or drafted (hence the superscripts).

…Since B-/C+ guys aren’t delineated, it’s difficult to say that there are more “better than marginal” prospects, which was always something that I would look for; we’ll have to wait until next month to see how that pans out

…With the exception of Fedde, looks like Melotte takes the Weaver-esque approach (“I only deal with the living”) to prospects, which I actually prefer because the opposite leads to too much wishful thinking

As I did last year, I encourage folks to click through to read Melotte’s thoughts on Giolito, Taylor, and Lopez.

15 Commments

  1. Thanks, Luke. A perfectly timed post on a cold no-fun day to keep us happy.

    The system looks good and restocked from here, plus the Dominican Academy is really bearing fruit.

    1. You can thank FCPS in part — two-hour delays today (Thursday) and yesterday from Tuesday’s 2″ blizzard.

  2. Taylor (Benny) Hill???
    I guess after Drew signs with Yanx to be SS insurance we are awaiting if Nats lasso a Cuban ( Fernandez or Yoan M.).
    Luke, great work this year so far on a limited scale.
    enjoy the full moon.

  4. Good stuff, Luke. I like the top twelve on this list better than any I have seen so far. (Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus). The only player I might not have in there might be Voth and I’m not even certain who I would replace him with. Naturally, my order wouldn’t necessarily be the same and I’m well aware that even though it’s my favorite list, that doesn’t mean it is the best. I’m far from an expert.

  5. I think Matt Grace more than earned his way on the list, even if Rafael Martin does not fit the ‘definition.’ But otherwise, seeing that only 28 folks get mentioned, that’s a pretty interesting list. Steven Fuentes did not even have impressive numbers, so there must be some kind of back story on him worth chasing down.

    Otherwise, it’s good to see certain names getting some like who will in time get some love. Raudy Read is one of those overlooked in these discussions, but he’s going to make somebody above him expendable. Gil Mendez took a back seat to Self and Benincasa but he has gotten it done for a few years now and heads to AA a young man.

    What’s best about this is that I don;t recall a year in which the team added this many high level prospects via trade in the off season. They could underwhelm, as did Vettleson and Rivero, but it’s still a pleasure to see. And likely we will see more with the trades to come, that will shake up this list as did the Souza deal.

    Most disappointing to me is only three players from the 2013 draft (where aspiration yields to reality) and four players from the 2012 draft. True, Travis Ott was traded and there are some excellent performers from 2013 not on this list. Is that really as good as it gets?

  6. This brings to mind…for all of you, Luke included, especially those who watch the games. Who are your top 5 (or so) who are poised to take a big leap forward this year? And why? Who would you keep an eye on who gets overlooked?

    For me:

    1) Manny Rodriguez
    2) Jake Walsh
    3) Raudy Read
    4) Hector Silvestre
    5) John Wooten
    6) Jim Yezzo
    7) Jeff Gardner

    1. I don’t know about leap forward, but I’ll posit a list of guys who should improve to an appreciable degree 😉

      1. Drew Vettleson
      2. Felipe Rivero
      3. Ian Dickson
      4. Hector Silvestre
      5. “Orange” Marmolejos-Diaz

      Obiovusly, I’m cheating a little with Rivero and Vettleson. Dickson and Silvestre were better than their final numbers. And last is a gut pick, and a little selfish because I want the nickname to spread. One of my biggest thrills doing this site was hearing the Rome Braves announcer drop Wirkin “For The Weekend” Estevez on an MiLB.tv broadcast three years ago.

        1. Dickson has good size and nice delivery and closed out the season strong. Silvestre is lefthanded and not a soft-tosser. 2014 was his first full season and he didn’t crater in August. Had he been left in Hagerstown, I think he may have won 2-3 more games overall.

  7. I noticed that Matt Skole and Jake Johansen weren’t even “honorable mentions” for Melotte. I respect that; at least one source isn’t swayed by draft position. And although there was a lot of hand wringing when Skole was exposed to the Rule 5 draft, I was never concerned. His one ticket to the show is being a LH power bat, and that didn’t show last year.

    Despite that, a bunch of guys took steps forward in 2014. Overall, I like the state of the system; given the loss rate to graduation and trades, it’s impressive. Last year the system ranked in the #18-22 range. I’m guessing #12-15 in the coming rankings. With only a couple potential graduation candidates and some serious upside potential, the system could crack the top 10 by this time next year.

    1. I noticed that Matt Skole and Jake Johansen weren’t even “honorable mentions” for Melotte. I respect that; at least one source isn’t swayed by draft position.

      I was expecting more blowback for only listing Johansen as a “notable” on this year’s watchlist, which one could construe as an “honorable mention” — so obviously when an outsider/expert agrees, I feel validated.

      I’m not as hung up on where the system will rank relative to the others; after all, it was #9 in 2007 after Bowden tilted heavily towards HS picks in 2006 which netted a couple of September call-ups (Marrero, Peacock) and Cole Kimball (college pick). IMO, system rankings tend to reflect draft position or if it has an inordinate number of Top 100 overall prospects.

      I agree that it’s unusual for the Nats to have done so much restocking via the trade; usually, it’s cashing in prospects to get major-leaguers. I’m still down the lack of depth at 1B, OF, and LHSPs but having done this a few years, I’ve also learned to not get too hung up on the imperfections. To steal a line from a movie, it’s like a fashion; it’s never finished. Guys get hurt, or stall, but then other guys step up unexpectedly and come out of nowhere.

  8. Interesting that Prospectus had listed Johansen as their number 10 pick. ( At the time I mentioned on this site that I didn’t agree with his being anywhere near that high) Then Pivetta was picked as BA’s number 10 pick. (Until the trade) Yet neither of them are on this lists top 28. Seems to indicate a fair amount of subjectivity even by the experts.

  9. The disparity between Ward’s scouting reports is quite remarkable. I know he’s 20 and in A ball, so there’s plenty of room for development/projectioon, but BP graded Ward as a 40, and only 30 for his “hit” tool, and a future bench player.

    Melotte has him at 4 stars, or a 55/60 player, which equates to a productive regular with all star potential.

    That’s a pretty wide gap. I’d be curious to read Melotte’s opinion of Ward.

    1. If makeup matters, I believe that Ward’s going to have a solid 2015 and justify his draft position by being a solid member of the 2016 Senators. Hope that Rizzo was right and Ward doesn’t have too many speed bumps at Potomac this year. He’s a great kid who could be a real fan favorite if he pushes the peanut ahead and continues to be advanced for his age.

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