Baseball America Ranks The Top 10 Nats Prospects
Having confirmed the new list via Twitter, here’s the new-and-improved Washington Nationals Top 10 list from Baseball America (Last year’s ranking in parentheses):
1. Lucas Giolito, RHP (1)
2. Michael Taylor, OF (7)
3. Reynaldo Lopez, RHP (–)
4. Erick Fedde, RHP (’14 Draft Pick)
5. A.J. Cole, RHP (2)
6. Wilmer Difo, 2B/SS (–)
7. Drew Ward, 3B (17)
8. Brian Goodwin, OF (3)
9. Nick Pivetta, RHP (22)
10. Austin Voth, RHP (15)
If you’re a TCU an A.J. Cole fan, you’re probably wondering what he did to drop three slots, but I think the better way to look at it is that the three guys ahead of him simply have either more upside (Fedde) or were in stratosphere this past summer (Taylor, Lopez).
Steve Souza was originally the #5 prospect on this list, though I think most most folks already knew this as the top 10 list was leaked (tweeted) earlier this week.
I’m a bit curious as to why Brian Goodwin remains ranked so high, given this tidbit (italics added):
They pushed him to Double-A Harrisburg by the second half of 2012, but he followed a lackluster 2013 with a horrific 2014 campaign at Triple-A Syracuse that ended on July 1 when he tore the labrum in his left shoulder sliding into second base.
Granted, Goodwin throws righthanded, but injury experts have long held that the torn labrum is baseball’s most fearsome injury, not to mention the conventional wisdom that shoulder injuries in general are what ends or alters baseball careers.
Unfortunately, BA did not weigh in on Difo’s defensive prowess so the SS vs. 2B debate will have to wait until the book is released or perhaps John Sickels’s book is released. They did, however, note that Drew Ward may outgrow 3B, pointing to his size-16 cleats and describing his footwork as merely adequate while noting his arm was strong and accurate.
BA’s projections for 2015 were as follows:
AAA –Taylor, Cole, Goodwin
High-A — Giolito, Lopez, Difo, Ward, Pivetta
Not specified — Fedde, Voth
I still believe Giolito will be jumped to AA (and would love to be wrong) because the Nats have not been keen on letting high-profile prospects play at Potomac (see: Strasburg, Harper, Goodwin). Voth is a near-lock to return to Harrisburg, while I’d expect Fedde to follow the track of Giolito and start out at the GCL and perhaps make an appearance with Auburn late in the year.
This is a really interesting contrast to Keith Law’s proclamation that Joe Ross and Trea Turner immediately become the #2 and #3 prospects for the Nats. Does the list above simply take Souza out and move everybody below him up one (assuming Voth was an honorable mention)? Or does it take the two new acquisitions into account and discount their value?
Given that news on Goodwin, I’m kind of surprised they added him to the 40-man. I thought he was a toss-up before and I’m surprised the injury didn’t scare the Nats off (although that’s clearly not their schtick).
I saw John Manuel tweet out that Ross slots in between Fedde and Cole, while Turner would become the #2 prospect.
Surprising to me that none of our catching prospects got into the top eleven. I would certainly pick, well, any of the three over Goodwin, and at least one of them over Pivetta or Voth. Ditto on Batista.
And judging by his professional stats, (that is all I can go by) I don’t see how Ross is better than Cole.
Thanks Luke for being a trooper here, seeing as you don’t like lists. The good news is we now have a Top 12 list.
It seems incredibly dumb to me to put a guy who won’t even play his 1st professional inning until midyear ahead of A.J. Cole.
Also, for anyone who missed it PayJayDee posted a great link to a no-subscription needed article by Baseball America on the Turner situation. A must read. Here it is.
http://bit.ly/1zdemjX
A few days away from Xmas and mr Cabrera
Is still a free agent .
As everybody is acting like teenagers @ the junior high
Dance gawking @ Marsha Brady (T2). There are some other
Matters to iron out.
Merry Xmas , y’all!
July 1 was a tough day for Nats prospects: also the day that Jefry Rodriguez broke his wrist. Difo’s position came up in the chat
Ryan (Laurel, MD): The acquisition of Trea Turner may impact this, but what position do you see Wilmer Difo settling into?
Aaron Fitt: The Nats think he has a real shot to stick at shortstop, and I think that’s where he’ll stay for the short term. I really like the Cristian Guzman comp for him — I think it fits his body and his skill set, although there’s still plenty of risk — and I think he could wind up as a guy who plays shortstop and second base like Guzman did (but maybe more second than short).
Wally (DC): Has Jefry Rodriguez completely fallen off the radar screen? Any word on his injury issues, or what caused him to miss so much time in 2014?
Aaron Fitt: He got hit on the wrist by a comebacker on July 1, causing a hairline fracture that ended his season. He returned to action this fall and was good in instructs, I hear. He’s still a prospect, but this was kind of a lost year for him developmentally.
With the name mini – cozzi. Another
Small package with some scrappy tools .
Or we could thread in Austin powers mini- me?
Something to keep in mind in the next year:
Even Dave Brubeck had to replace a Desmond !
Lol!
I continue to be skeptical of the prospect ratings of pundits, in part because I feel like they are so heavily influenced by team’s overhyping certain prospects or draft position, etc.
And like Mark, I cannot fathom the higher ranking of a player who has not even played professional ball, and is coming off a major injury, relative to one who has produced.
Nor, having watched Souza’s ascent with awareness that I felt was completely at odds with prospect mayvens who marginalized him until late this year, do I fall into the age-ism trap.
For some people, the light comes on later. For others (Rafael Martin), it’s a pitch that comes around, or skills that mature (Difo).
Nor can I get excited over prospects who have been hammered or otherwise ineffectual (Johansen).
It’s nice to see great results, it’s nicer to see results carry forward to a next level, and it’s nice to see results at younger ages at more demanding levels. It’s especially nicer to see results from one year to the next. So if you are really impressed about Lopez, and who can’t be, consider that Austin Voth tore through A+ — but was a 5th round draft pick and gets lower pub.
So here’s my top-30, which I include only to ensure discussion of players that all too often are overlooked in this spot and others:
Luke Giolito
Michael Taylor
Blake Treinen
A.J. Cole
Wilmer Difo
Tre Turner
Matt Grace
Rafael Martin
Rey Lopez
Taylor Hill
Taylor Jordan
Austin Voth
Rafael Bautista
Pedro Severino
Drew Ward
Joe Ross
Hector Silvestre
Spencer Kieboom
Matt Skole
Raudy Read
John Wooten
Jake Walsh
Jakson Reetz
Erick Fedde
Abel De Los Santos
Derek Self
Brian Goodwin
Tony Renda
John Simms
Gilberto Mendez
Some may be dismissive, but there are folks noted here who are heretofore laboring in anonymity who will be heard from in 2015.
There isn’t a player on this list that I haven’t written about prior to be acquired by trade — including 30-y.o. Rafael Martin, who is an interesting story, but not a prospect. Nor is Taylor Jordan, who lost his rookie eligibility in 2013 by pitching 50+ innings.
Nor is Treinen a rookie any longer.
Interesting that the Nats are linked to the Korean infielder as the team with rights to negotiate. I believe Kwon is his name.
Make that Jung-ho Kang. At least I remembered the K. And we’re talking about a posting fee here.
Luke, this is obviously a very thorough resource and attracts us bugs from all over. Your watch lists have made us all fans of you, however each of us defines prospect. There is, however, a disproportionate discussion of some players, while others are overlooked beyond mention.
There are 5-10 players noted above that we know nothing more of than their stats. But in the context of who exhibits the capacity to achieve a major league career and why or why not,it would be great for all to weigh in on those who do not customarily draw the spotlight.
If Jordan and Treinen have graduated in service time, so be it. As many are intrigued with young Moncada, as we were young Bryce, I would then add two names to the bottom of the list – Israel Mota and Anderson Franco. If Lopez, Batista, and Difo fully ascend, they may be the next wave justifying a spigot opened for international investment.
A worthwhile consideration as we consider Kang’s mystery and relatively approachable posting fee.
Mota is one of the DSL guys while Franco barely missed the cut. It will be interesting to see if they will challenge Franco with the GCL next year or have him repeat like Mota.
Franco was the Nats’ unusually high investment, and so I wonder whether that accelerates his passport. I would imagine that a lot of these decisions incorporate a player’s psychological readiness to leave home “forever.” Can’t be easy for a 17-18 yo changing cultures and languages.
But Franco sure did show up at his tender age.